Manager Departures - The Facts

[blahblahblah 2]

Statistical analysis on the success or otherwise of replacing managers from the University of Warwick.  I''ve edited to cut it down, there''s some analogy about Churchill I didn''t get at the start, oh, and it''s a bit old (printed 31st December), but still relevant.

Full article - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7973-1964029,00.html

The Fink Tank’s Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham have been looking at when clubs sack their managers. And it turns out that the choice between following the odds or taking the plunge is one that directors face all the time.

The first point is that the turnover (of managers) is huge. There have been 367 Premiership and League managers since the beginning of the 2001-02 season (up to Dec 2005).

[b]The average tenure of a manager is only 59.4 games[/b], and this excludes the 120 managers who lasted fewer than ten games, many of whom were clearly caretakers.

There has also been a large variety of manager-firing strategies. Clubs on average changed managers three times each, but while some (Arsenal and Sheffield United, for instance) haven’t changed managers at all, others (Oldham Athletic, Coventry City) have changed nine times.

The statisticians thought they would be able to find some pattern to all this sacking: that, for instance, the Aston Villa pattern would be fairly standard — a new manager takes over, a sharp but brief improvement follows, then there is a levelling off, then a sharp decline, then curtains. But this wasn’t common at all. Indeed, nothing was.

So many things (the wage bill, personal relations, expectations) confuse the picture, that there is no standard relationship between team strength, its fluctuation, and management tenure.

The Fink Tank did discover, unsurprisingly, that a decline usually preceded a departure. However, it wasn’t clear whether this decline was long term or a blip that would have righted itself anyway.

So this leaves the question of whether sacking the manager is the right move. [b]Our data suggests that on average it makes no difference. [/b]

On average, managers arrive and leave without having significantly altered the team strength. The board has gone to a whole load of trouble for nothing.

This, however, is on average. Some managers leave the team far worse off than when they found it — David O’Leary at Leeds, , Jean Tigana at Fulham — while others make spectacular improvements (Harry Redknapp at Portsmouth when he went there for the first time, say, or Paul Sturrock at Plymouth Argyle).

The problem is there is no way, except a hunch, to know which type of manager you are choosing. On average you wouldn’t bother.

[JC 0]

Is this a public announcement on behalf of the Worthington family?

His time is up.  Stop trying to defend the indefensible.

 

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

Statistical analysis on the success or otherwise of replacing managers from the University of Warwick.  I''ve edited to cut it down, there''s some analogy about Churchill I didn''t get at the start, oh, and it''s a bit old (printed 31st December), but still relevant.

Full article - http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7973-1964029,00.html

The Fink Tank’s Dr Henry Stott and Dr Ian Graham have been looking at when clubs sack their managers. And it turns out that the choice between following the odds or taking the plunge is one that directors face all the time.

The first point is that the turnover (of managers) is huge. There have been 367 Premiership and League managers since the beginning of the 2001-02 season (up to Dec 2005).

[b]The average tenure of a manager is only 59.4 games[/b], and this excludes the 120 managers who lasted fewer than ten games, many of whom were clearly caretakers.

There has also been a large variety of manager-firing strategies. Clubs on average changed managers three times each, but while some (Arsenal and Sheffield United, for instance) haven’t changed managers at all, others (Oldham Athletic, Coventry City) have changed nine times.

The statisticians thought they would be able to find some pattern to all this sacking: that, for instance, the Aston Villa pattern would be fairly standard — a new manager takes over, a sharp but brief improvement follows, then there is a levelling off, then a sharp decline, then curtains. But this wasn’t common at all. Indeed, nothing was.

So many things (the wage bill, personal relations, expectations) confuse the picture, that there is no standard relationship between team strength, its fluctuation, and management tenure.

The Fink Tank did discover, unsurprisingly, that a decline usually preceded a departure. However, it wasn’t clear whether this decline was long term or a blip that would have righted itself anyway.

So this leaves the question of whether sacking the manager is the right move. [b]Our data suggests that on average it makes no difference. [/b]

On average, managers arrive and leave without having significantly altered the team strength. The board has gone to a whole load of trouble for nothing.

This, however, is on average. Some managers leave the team far worse off than when they found it — David O’Leary at Leeds, , Jean Tigana at Fulham — while others make spectacular improvements (Harry Redknapp at Portsmouth when he went there for the first time, say, or Paul Sturrock at Plymouth Argyle).

The problem is there is no way, except a hunch, to know which type of manager you are choosing. On average you wouldn’t bother.

[/quote]

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

ON AVERAGE YOU WOULDNT BOTHER, BUT AFTER THE PATHETIC EFFORTS OF 2 YEARS AND NOW ONLY 4 POINTS OFF THE FOOT OF THE TABLE something has to change...

oops caps lock on.  first team coach hasnt worked, changing players hasnt worked...  whats left apart from getting rid of the manager? - a man whom has still lost more games than won in 8 years of management.

 

anyway hamilton was removed and worthy improved us??  Our last managerial change worked?

I bet forest wish now they had kept megson (2 promotions from this division)

The time was right last november a 10 months later nothing has changed.  We need a new direction cos relegation is not one I want to see us fall into.  The squad Worthy has created is heading that way.

[Baldyboy 1]

for gods sake blahx3 change the record!! his time is up face it!!!

[jetstream 0]

bbb - I thought you''d emigrated!

[0Amarillo<P><FONT color=#cccc00 size=4><EM> º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸ Amarillo ¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°<EM><FONT><P>ddMMyyyy0Falseen-US<P><FONT color=#cccc00 size=4><EM> º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸ Amarillo ¸,ø¤º°`°º¤ø,¸¸,ø¤º°`°<EM><FONT><P>True 0]

That''s all fair enough I reckon. I tend to agree with the assertion that sacking a manager after a decline could be unwise, as it may have righted itself anyway. But that assumes the decline is a blip. Our board have rightly waited long enough to establish that this is no blip, things haven''t really worked since we got promoted - that was the high water mark. So having estalished that this is a trend rather than a blip, it''s now time to act to change things. The odds are that they will improve if we change, whereas they probably wont if we stay the same.

Some credit though - Worthy has improved the team - I do believe we have a better team now than when Worthy arrived. But I also believe it is underperfoming and could deliver better results under a new manager. At the moment, the team is less than the sum of its parts, which indicates poor management. Good management produces a team that is better than the sum of its parts (i.e. results are better than the team looks on paper... such as perhaps Cardiff?)

[Suess7 0]

So what are you saying bring back Megson?

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="Suess7"]So what are you saying bring back Megson?[/quote]

Not in the slightest, but his tenure like worthys proves that just becuase you have done it in the past can mean very little.  Forest were bottom half when he was sacked, they are now top only 6 months later.  Lets hope when the new man finally arrives he can spark such a turnaround in us.

[LinkNR9 0]

Come on, Blah3, where are the statements telling us what a fantastic manager Worthington is? And how all of us Worthy Outers are so wrong about his wonderful abilities?

[Getting off the fence 0]

It is disappointing that you try to bring well-researched and thorough evidence onto the board. This can only serve to confuse the issue. There is no place for this sort of thing in here. How are we expected to recognise the truth if you keep confusing us with facts!

[Syteanric 1]

so blah3 pulls out some piffle about a new manager "Possibly" not working. well theres the possibility that this new manager could make us great isnt it? we dont know.

what we do know is that Nigels time has come.. he took us up once, and we will all remember it and look back fondly on it. and possibly even Thank Nigel for his time here and wish him well. but the fact has to be faced, his desk will be cleared, his house put up for sale and his suitcase packed.

Accept it!

jas :)

[blahblahblah 2]

I''m looking further ahead than that Jas.

Turning a club around generally takes time (and several hundred other things, half of which are out of your control at any given time, i have no doubt).  People who expect a change of manager to bring a change of form will need to be patient if they get what they ask for.  You won''t be able to force change with knee-jerk reactions to a bad run of form.  Or at least I hope you won''t.  If Worthington goes, I hope the board show the patience they have given Worthington.

 

[The Fish Seller 0]

[quote user="Getting off the fence"]It is disappointing that you try to bring well-researched and thorough evidence onto the board. This can only serve to confuse the issue. There is no place for this sort of thing in here. How are we expected to recognise the truth if you keep confusing us with facts![/quote]

 

Facts is it that you want GOTF? Well here''s a few.

We''ve won  5 league away games under Worthy in the last 2 seasons and 2 months. Fact!

We have hardly ever won a game in January during the entire tenure of Worthys management. Fact!

We are level on points with a team who were 40 places below us two years ago. Fact!

Although every man woman and child supporting Norwich knew our squad was wafer thin at the end of last year we have let several players leave and only permanently signed one. Fact!

We are struggling to get players to join us on loan let alone permanently. Fact!

Worthy is destroying this club on the pitch and off the pitch too as the fans argue and bicker amongst themselves. Fact!

You cannot defend the indefensible. Fact!

And as for BBB''s facts, I and I''m sure many others are quite happy to take the chance and get rid of Worthy. Fact!

 

 

[lucky green trainers 0]

sure blah, but that''s why using the back end of last season to bed in a new manager/squad would have been better and starting fresh for this season, our last with a chute payment.  that''s what soton did.   unless a new manager could have a dowie type impact (palace rather than charlton), then effectively this season could already be over - rebuilding can go both ways.

[John Boubepo 0]

Blah - Your stance to defend Worthngton no matter what is admirable, well I guess it is to Worthington but to the rest of us who have witnessed approx 90 games of abysmal football out of the last 100 it''s a little confusing, his time is up and should have been up long before now - bring on the Curb!

[Fat Barman 0]

I''ve found many of blahblahblah''s posts worth reading - this one also, although I''d read similar stats elsewhere. The teams who stick with managers very long term are usually highly successful (Arsenal) or at least not underperforming (Crewe), or seen as moving in the right direction (Sheff.utd). Nigel has had plenty of time to ''sort it out'' and yet we still see teams taking the pitch with low workrate & no passion - the two things Nigel stresses as prerequisites for success at this level. We are definitely not in any of the three categories I outlined above and the manager cannot even bring his team to show his most highly-prized virtues on a regular basis. This is why I''ve withdrawn my support for him and why - although not joining in Sunday''s protest - I hope he is replaced in the dugout as soon as possible.

[USAcanary 0]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

I''m looking further ahead than that Jas.

Turning a club around generally takes time (and several hundred other things, half of which are out of your control at any given time, i have no doubt).  People who expect a change of manager to bring a change of form will need to be patient if they get what they ask for.  You won''t be able to force change with knee-jerk reactions to a bad run of form.  Or at least I hope you won''t.  If Worthington goes, I hope the board show the patience they have given Worthington.

 

[/quote]

Of course it takes time to undo the damage done by a previous manager.

Worthy has been given a lot longer than most any other club would give him.

So will you be still posting here if Worthy goes or is your loyalty to Worthy much greater than your loyalty to Norwich City Football Club

Thats the way it seems?

[coming on strong 0]

They say there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

What are the statistics on the number of lies told, and would you believe them?

Give it until October 7th.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

I''m looking further ahead than that Jas.

Turning a club around generally takes time (and several hundred other things, half of which are out of your control at any given time, i have no doubt).  People who expect a change of manager to bring a change of form will need to be patient if they get what they ask for.  You won''t be able to force change with knee-jerk reactions to a bad run of form.  Or at least I hope you won''t.  If Worthington goes, I hope the board show the patience they have given Worthington.

 

[/quote]

very true, when the new man comes in he must be given a chance. Hopefully the new man will have until January to assess the squad and then the rebuilding begins as he will need to repair the damage done to the squad by worthington.

Fact is our run of poor results under worthy now runs back to over 100 games.  Apart from a blip at the end of the premiership season and a blip during december last year we have been awful for the most part.  Nothing has changed results wise since last season, goals are being shipped at a faster rate than ever and we are precariously close to the drop zone.

[KidCanary 0]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]

I''m looking further ahead than that Jas.

Turning a club around generally takes time (and several hundred other things, half of which are out of your control at any given time, i have no doubt).  People who expect a change of manager to bring a change of form will need to be patient if they get what they ask for.  You won''t be able to force change with knee-jerk reactions to a bad run of form.  Or at least I hope you won''t.  If Worthington goes, I hope the board show the patience they have given Worthington.

 

[/quote]Lol i would expect nothing but knee jerk reactions from the majority here im afraid... like Citizen''s ridiculous statement of stating Hunter has had no affect (yet im sure ive seen him advocating making him manager else where)... he''s had, what 9 games (how many games would you give a player to make a difference, 5 good performance vs 4 bad)... CFL all you do is post negatively spinned fact after another, there no direct correlation on how much you post and the managers tenure you know ;) (not saying some arent true, but your intentions are so transparent, even when we were on a winning streak).To be honest although i dont think its a good reason for him to go i feel Worthy probably has to because even if he went unbeaten for the next 30 games, if he had another bad run the knives will come out again and we need togetherness in these periods, but they will get their new manager and same thing will happen over and over and over.  I''m not suggesting a new manager wont make a difference, i have no idea, i just dont think they will be any better than what we already have.  I dont think people have given worthy a fair crack of the whip *THIS* season, people have just been waiting for him to slip up.

[jetstream 0]

So, if I read this right BBB is saying there''s no point in sacking a manager as it may or may not lead to an improvement.

The argument seems to be therefore that there is no point sacking Worthington, nor indeed any manager ever because, on average, it changes nothing.

That is, to me, the most bizarre reasoning yet for keeping Worthington. A Club divided, players underperforming, and so on and yet we are meant to just trundle along FOREVER.

[KidCanary 0]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="blahblahblah"]

I''m looking further ahead than that Jas.

Turning a club around generally takes time (and several hundred other things, half of which are out of your control at any given time, i have no doubt).  People who expect a change of manager to bring a change of form will need to be patient if they get what they ask for.  You won''t be able to force change with knee-jerk reactions to a bad run of form.  Or at least I hope you won''t.  If Worthington goes, I hope the board show the patience they have given Worthington.

 

[/quote]

very true, when the new man comes in he must be given a chance. Hopefully the new man will have until January to assess the squad and then the rebuilding begins as he will need to repair the damage done to the squad by worthington.

Fact is our run of poor results under worthy now runs back to over 100 games.  Apart from a blip at the end of the premiership season and a blip during december last year we have been awful for the most part.  Nothing has changed results wise since last season, goals are being shipped at a faster rate than ever and we are precariously close to the drop zone.

[/quote]How can you talk about relegation in such a manner when were almost as close to the top as we are the bottom, you dont half dramatise things for you own end.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="KidCanary"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"][quote user="blahblahblah"]

I''m looking further ahead than that Jas.

Turning a club around generally takes time (and several hundred other things, half of which are out of your control at any given time, i have no doubt).  People who expect a change of manager to bring a change of form will need to be patient if they get what they ask for.  You won''t be able to force change with knee-jerk reactions to a bad run of form.  Or at least I hope you won''t.  If Worthington goes, I hope the board show the patience they have given Worthington.

 

[/quote]

very true, when the new man comes in he must be given a chance. Hopefully the new man will have until January to assess the squad and then the rebuilding begins as he will need to repair the damage done to the squad by worthington.

Fact is our run of poor results under worthy now runs back to over 100 games.  Apart from a blip at the end of the premiership season and a blip during december last year we have been awful for the most part.  Nothing has changed results wise since last season, goals are being shipped at a faster rate than ever and we are precariously close to the drop zone.

[/quote]

How can you talk about relegation in such a manner when were almost as close to the top as we are the bottom, you dont half dramatise things for you own end.
[/quote]

4 points off the bottom of the table?? falling like a stone - on course to concede 71 goals this season if we continue as we are, we are closer to the the foot of the table than the play-offs....

Wafer thin squad mate, better teams than ours have been relegated - what if a couple of players get injured Sunday?  We are in the deep poo in no uncertain terms.  Forest, Sheffield Wednesday, Man City...  many decent teams have slipped down another league after getting on a bad run.

Just think about this season we get THRASHED AND TOTALLY OUTPLAYED at the mighty COVENTRY and PLYMOUTH!!  it aint birmingham and Cardiff mate its PLYMOUTH!!!! concede 3 against SOUTHEND!!

[morty 0]

So if he does go, will this whole stupid KTF and WO crap be done with? And we can just get back to supporting the team? Remember that?

[USAcanary 0]

[quote user="morty"]So if he does go, will this whole stupid KTF and WO crap be done with? And we can just get back to supporting the team? Remember that?[/quote]

I think its already done.

Even the most die hard KTF seem to think Worthys time is done.

Its the one thing that virtually all NCFC fans can unite on.

Hopefully we can all come together and support the new manager

[jetstream 0]

Yes, Morty, I think we can

Roll on that day.

[ZLF 335]

I have seen the study before and the summary pretty much is ''the longer the tenure the best the chance of success, rapid changing of managers hinders the chances of success; sometimes changing managers works, and sometimes it doesnt. When managers are changed no one really knows whether that improvement or continued decline would have continued or not''.  Well theres a surprise - another statement of the bleeding obvious that I dare say our taxes were used to fund !

Changing the manager has a chance of changing on field success - the risk is that chance does not come off;  that risk has to be balanced against the chance that the current manager is able to force a change. 

However Blahcubed does raise an important point of caution.

Any new manager will face an extreme uphill task;  he will inherit a very small squad lacking quality in depth and will have limited opportunities to improve it due to the transfer window and a restricted budget (albeit reputedly multi-million).  It is very unlikely (although not unprecedented) that a promotion challenge can be mounted this season.  

It is essential that any new manager gets time to put things right;  I have no doubt the board will give the new man time, it is essetial that the fans do too - it has to be a minimum of until the end of the 2007-2008 season - 18 months and over 70 games;  hewill have had a full season and a chance to build a team he wants rather than working with anothers tools. 

I do have faith in the board choosing the right man (or as I believe have already signed) and agree that we need to unite behind a new regime;  however some wounds have been deeply cut and I doubt that they will heal so quickly - I can already see told you so posts 15 games into any new regime from whichever sides thinks its original view was right.  Please prove me wrong.

The end game on nigels reign may be playing but we are only in the middle of the turbulence 

    

[KidCanary 0]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]

4 points off the bottom of the table?? falling like a stone - on course to concede 71 goals this season if we continue as we are, we are closer to the the foot of the table than the play-offs....

Wafer thin squad mate, better teams than ours have been relegated - what if a couple of players get injured Sunday?  We are in the deep poo in no uncertain terms.  Forest, Sheffield Wednesday, Man City...  many decent teams have slipped down another league after getting on a bad run.

Just think about this season we get THRASHED AND TOTALLY OUTPLAYED at the mighty COVENTRY and PLYMOUTH!!  it aint birmingham and Cardiff mate its PLYMOUTH!!!! concede 3 against SOUTHEND!!

[/quote]So when we were second, were you saying looking certs for promotion and rising like a star?You can just as easily say we are on course to score 71, 9 points off the top.Wafter thin squad definitely, but thats going to be the same when some one else joins us, we can only get loans in, yet its probably going to cost us some of our transfer kitty to replace the manager, get in back room staff that the new manager wants, paying off players who wont feature under the new manager etc etc, then what are you going to use to buy players in Jan?For thrashed and out played at Coventry/Plymouth see hammering Barnsley or the Good home win against Preston.My point is, i would say its too early this season to say which way we are going and the next 6 games will hopefully provide some in sight (ive always advocated giving him 15 games)..As for people starting protests etc... NONE of you have given Worthy a fair crack at the whip this season and have just been waiting for him to slip up, this being the only reason why Worthy should go, because there are people who are never going to give him a decent run, i just hope this group stays in the minority in future, i dont want us turning into Blues or Spurs supporters.

[Citizen Journalist Foghorn 0]

[quote user="KidCanary"][quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]

4 points off the bottom of the table?? falling like a stone - on course to concede 71 goals this season if we continue as we are, we are closer to the the foot of the table than the play-offs....

Wafer thin squad mate, better teams than ours have been relegated - what if a couple of players get injured Sunday?  We are in the deep poo in no uncertain terms.  Forest, Sheffield Wednesday, Man City...  many decent teams have slipped down another league after getting on a bad run.

Just think about this season we get THRASHED AND TOTALLY OUTPLAYED at the mighty COVENTRY and PLYMOUTH!!  it aint birmingham and Cardiff mate its PLYMOUTH!!!! concede 3 against SOUTHEND!!

[/quote]

So when we were second, were you saying looking certs for promotion and rising like a star?

You can just as easily say we are on course to score 71, 9 points off the top.

Wafter thin squad definitely, but thats going to be the same when some one else joins us, we can only get loans in, yet its probably going to cost us some of our transfer kitty to replace the manager, get in back room staff that the new manager wants, paying off players who wont feature under the new manager etc etc, then what are you going to use to buy players in Jan?

For thrashed and out played at Coventry/Plymouth see hammering Barnsley or the Good home win against Preston.

My point is, i would say its too early this season to say which way we are going and the next 6 games will hopefully provide some in sight (ive always advocated giving him 15 games)..

As for people starting protests etc... NONE of you have given Worthy a fair crack at the whip this season and have just been waiting for him to slip up, this being the only reason why Worthy should go, because there are people who are never going to give him a decent run, i just hope this group stays in the minority in future, i dont want us turning into Blues or Spurs supporters.
[/quote]

Actually when we were 2nd I was saying we were 3 points off the top and 3 points off 14th (or whatever position it was).  Barnsley was against 10 men, Luton lost 3 players to injury in the match before our turnaround...

If we lose any more players to injury relegation will beconme a definate concern. 4 points off the bottom after 9 games...  it is worrying

[KidCanary 0]

[quote user="Citizen Journalist Foghorn"]Actually when we were 2nd I was saying we were 3 points off the top and 3 points off 14th (or whatever position it was).  Barnsley was against 10 men, Luton lost 3 players to injury in the match before our turnaround...

If we lose any more players to injury relegation will beconme a definate concern. 4 points off the bottom after 9 games...  it is worrying

[/quote]CJF i can play this game all day long :)Coventry - Huckerby out, Etuhu illSouthend - Huckerby out,  Robinson outI agree, if we lose any more players relegation could become a problem but with a new manager a). all you can get is loans in at the moment b). we lose any transfer money we would of had for the jan window by replacing the manager, backroom staff and players.