Be Realistic.

[mr footy 36]

The owners have done fantastic for this club everyone agrees on that.But what can we do to help the club ,well not booing when the team is struggling would be a start.This is always going to be counterproductive.Next we should be realistic about the squad this is not a mid table squad this is a bottom four ,hope three other teams have worst squads squads.We must not get hung up on results but be more about the whole experience of watching our team that is by far the most important and rewarding thing about being a fan about any sport.So new start next season in the championship playing good football in a good atmosphere.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 minute ago, mr footy said:

The owners have done fantastic for this club everyone agrees on that.But what can we do to help the club ,well not booing when the team is struggling would be a start.This is always going to be counterproductive.Next we should be realistic about the squad this is not a mid table squad this is a bottom four ,hope three other teams have worst squads squads.We must not get hung up on results but be more about the whole experience of watching our team that is by far the most important and rewarding thing about being a fan about any sport.So new start next season in the championship playing good football in a good atmosphere.

 

You say its about the experience of watching and that is true. But games like last night, and there have been too many, are not an enjoyable experience.

We haven't been able to compete in a league that has changed in the last 10 years. Three times up and it looks like three times straight down.

So while we have had success in the Championship and its on the owners watch, would you not agree that it appears the current ownership do not have the resources to establish us as an EPL club?

[Midlands Yellow 3,985]

The first 8 words were enough for me. 

[City 2nd 191]

10 minutes ago, mr footy said:

The owners have done fantastic for this club everyone agrees on that.But what can we do to help the club ,well not booing when the team is struggling would be a start.This is always going to be counterproductive.Next we should be realistic about the squad this is not a mid table squad this is a bottom four ,hope three other teams have worst squads squads.We must not get hung up on results but be more about the whole experience of watching our team that is by far the most important and rewarding thing about being a fan about any sport.So new start next season in the championship playing good football in a good atmosphere.

 

And how many relegations have those owners overseen!?

[(Hoola)Han Solo 324]

Realistically we’ll never be anything more than a yo-yo team with these owners. And, with sellable assets drying up (Aarons might get decent money but no one else in this quad would), it’s a worry that we won’t be able to compete in the Championship and could face a long spell there.

[hogesar 9,674]

20 minutes ago, City 2nd said:

And how many relegations have those owners overseen!?

Well yeah, but only because they've achieved the promotions in the first place - way ahead of many similar sized clubs who in the same time frame haven't been able to even taste the Premier League. For the size of club we have, comparatively speaking,  over achieved in Premier League seasons. If you went by the owners wealth then we have drastically overachieved beyond any other club.

[(Hoola)Han Solo 324]

1 minute ago, hogesar said:

Well yeah, but only because they've achieved the promotions in the first place - way ahead of many similar sized clubs who in the same time frame haven't been able to even taste the Premier League. For the size of club we have, comparatively speaking,  over achieved in Premier League seasons. If you went by the owners wealth then we have drastically overachieved beyond any other club.

Fair points, but do you see the point in getting promoted? We look way out of our depth in a lot of the games and to be honest I find it quite embarrassing, I’m getting to the point where I wouldn’t mind finishing seventh in the Championship each season, with the hope of some excellent games thrown in. I’m of the opinion that I really want my football team to compete at the highest level possible, but this seems like a pipe dream with our current owners and the modern footballing landscape.

[Midlands Yellow 3,985]

3 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Well yeah, but only because they've achieved the promotions in the first place - way ahead of many similar sized clubs who in the same time frame haven't been able to even taste the Premier League. For the size of club we have, comparatively speaking,  over achieved in Premier League seasons. If you went by the owners wealth then we have drastically overachieved beyond any other club.

Norwich have clearly not over achieved in Premier League seasons. The last three including this one have seen us look doomed way before autumn has finished. 

[Badger 2,405]

28 minutes ago, City 2nd said:

And how many relegations have those owners overseen!?

And there's the rub. If we hadn't been promoted so often we would not have been relegated as much. To me, it leaves three options:

1. Give up getting promoted.

2. Risk the future on a gamble on the chance that it may pay off.

3. Build steadily, accepting that we are likely to go up and down but by improving over time until hopefully we become established.

4. Find a multi-billionaire owner who is happy to gift us tens of millions of pounds every year.

Some may prefer option two but there is not much evidence to suggest that it will work any better than option three and imo makes option 1 the more likely long term consequence.

Others pin their hopes on option 4 - but imo, this is the least likely option of all. It a bit like arguing for global peace and universal happiness - nobody is against it, but sensible people wouldn't put a lot of money on it happening.

[hogesar 9,674]

8 minutes ago, (Hoola)Han Solo said:

Fair points, but do you see the point in getting promoted? We look way out of our depth in a lot of the games and to be honest I find it quite embarrassing, I’m getting to the point where I wouldn’t mind finishing seventh in the Championship each season, with the hope of some excellent games thrown in. I’m of the opinion that I really want my football team to compete at the highest level possible, but this seems like a pipe dream with our current owners and the modern footballing landscape.

I dont disagree. I really don't like the Premier League however I accept id probably say differently if we were midtable.

Under our current owners and financial constraints its always going to be, as you say, incredibly tough to challenge in the top League in the world (arguable, but you get my point).

I think the problem for me is, the same applies even with a billionaire owner. Since there's about 35 clubs with billionaire owners we would just be number 36 and still competing just to get into the Prem with the other 16 who are missing out. 

I think if we had shown no ability to challenge for promotion from the Championship under this model and ownership there would be much more clamour and demand for new owners - it feels like rolling the dice would be a risk *maybe* worth taking.

As it stands I see plenty of richer owners with bigger or similarly sized clubs struggling to get out of the Championship or even League One and that makes it harder to really force change in my view, and I'm guessing a lot of other fans because there's been very little discontent.

On a personal level I like seeing us test ourselves against the best teams but I equally just enjoy watching my team play. I'm not desperate for the Premier League. I hate watching us lose so often and the media circus around the league in general. When we are in the prem of course I want us to stay up. But I dont feel as a fan the Prem is the be all and end all, if that makes any sense?

[Dean Coneys boots 1,400]

Its groundhog day. Once again we see fans split between 

1. The board were amazing once and I love them so don't be mean. We should just accept the glass ceiling and crappy results because the positives of having local fan ownership feels better and less scary than selling to an unknown 

2. This board have hung around far too long and the stale air in the boardroom is now stinking the place out and holding us back. We can't hope to play in a global era of billionaire owners with a local board of millionaires from the 1990s. 

The difference for me this time around the merry go round is that we were promised improvement but actually regressed. The sale of Buendia and loss of Skipp was suicide. The replacement strategy was risible. We have reaped where we sowed in summer. It really wasn't good enough. 

Bottom line for realists is that we cannot afford a new striker. We cannot afford premiership wages. We cannot afford mistakes and there have been plenty. We claim to have spent BIG but look a little more closely and net spend was 25 million - taken over 5 years close to zero. That is the reality of self funding. It buys you an entrance ticket to the premiership but that isn't enough to equip you for the journey that follows. 

All of which pushes me to point 2 where I have sat for a few seasons now. Time is up for the Smith era. We had some fun, the passion and commitment was awesome, but in business knowing when to step down is as important as knowing when to step in. I really hope it doesn't end sour. But it easily could if next season doesn't see instant improvement. 
 

We all know this, of course. But nothing will change until the board release the club and let it move onto the next stage. i fear if that doesn't happen this summer or next we might find ourselves in L1 again quicker than we think. Our wealth is now dwarfed by most in the championships. Other teams continue to progress whilst we stand still playing 1990s mood music. 

 

 

[Jim Smith 2,319]

1 hour ago, mr footy said:

The owners have done fantastic for this club everyone agrees on that.But what can we do to help the club ,well not booing when the team is struggling would be a start.This is always going to be counterproductive.Next we should be realistic about the squad this is not a mid table squad this is a bottom four ,hope three other teams have worst squads squads.We must not get hung up on results but be more about the whole experience of watching our team that is by far the most important and rewarding thing about being a fan about any sport.So new start next season in the championship playing good football in a good atmosphere.

 

Watching our team at this level is rarely rewarding. Torturous in the main. 

[Jim Smith 2,319]

And no I don’t agree that the owners have “done fantastic” for the club. They’ve done ok, but have failed to capitalise on numerous opportunities which in the long term may well hurt us. 

[Jim Smith 2,319]

5 minutes ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

Its groundhog day. Once again we see fans split between 

1. The board were amazing once and I love them so don't be mean. We should just accept the glass ceiling and crappy results because the positives of having local fan ownership feels better and less scary than selling to an unknown 

2. This board have hung around far too long and the stale air in the boardroom is now stinking the place out and holding us back. We can't hope to play in a global era of billionaire owners with a local board of millionaires from the 1990s. 

The difference for me this time around the merry go round is that we were promised improvement but actually regressed. The sale of Buendia and loss of Skipp was suicide. The replacement strategy was risible. We have reaped where we sowed in summer. It really wasn't good enough. 

Bottom line for realists is that we cannot afford a new striker. We cannot afford premiership wages. We cannot afford mistakes and there have been plenty. We claim to have spent BIG but look a little more closely and net spend was 25 million - taken over 5 years close to zero. That is the reality of self funding. It buys you an entrance ticket to the premiership but that isn't enough to equip you for the journey that follows. 

All of which pushes me to point 2 where I have sat for a few seasons now. Time is up for the Smith era. We had some fun, the passion and commitment was awesome, but in business knowing when to step down is as important as knowing when to step in. I really hope it doesn't end sour. But it easily could if next season doesn't see instant improvement. 
 

We all know this, of course. But nothing will change until the board release the club and let it move onto the next stage. i fear if that doesn't happen this summer or next we might find ourselves in L1 again quicker than we think. Our wealth is now dwarfed by most in the championships. Other teams continue to progress whilst we stand still playing 1990s mood music. 

 

 

I agree. It’s hard to see how we can come back again stronger and better equipped to compete when our jewels are being sold off and several players are coming to the end of their prime. 

[mr footy 36]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

You say its about the experience of watching and that is true. But games like last night, and there have been too many, are not an enjoyable experience.

We haven't been able to compete in a league that has changed in the last 10 years. Three times up and it looks like three times straight down.

So while we have had success in the Championship and its on the owners watch, would you not agree that it appears the current ownership do not have the resources to establish us as an EPL club?

In reply the answer is yes but you must look at the bigger picture.

[City 2nd 191]

What is it? A top 17 club! Where did Mr Webber get that from, our illustrious owners and board no doubt, who, undoubtedly, think the money lavished out by Webber will bring those rewards. We’ll be very very lucky to see even 17th with the current owners, board and Webber in place. NCFC are a total embarrassment now, just as they were two seasons ago, the big picture is continual failure.

Edited February 26, 2022 by City 2nd

[Ken Hairy 3,772]

It's like Groundhog Day on this forum 😁

[Yellow Wal 314]

Sheffield Wednesday, Portsmouth, Bolton, Sunderland and others.

Those four have massive histories and have very little chance of ever reaching their past positions in English football.

The set up now in the Premiership only gives teams that can attract mega-rich Arabs (or Russians!) or greedy Yanks a hope of success.

The Premiership is set up to make the rich richer and the rest poorer.

There are many ways to change the rules for football but the powerful will stop change because it could damage their clubs. Let's face it, a competition where finishing fifth for some is failure and finishing seventeenth for the majority is success is never going to be a fair contest. 

Unless changes are made the Premiership rules and set up there will be about a top half a dozen clubs with all the rest merely making up the numbers.

How I would hate being an Owls, Pompey, Trotters or Black Cats fan.

[Monty13 2,234]

1 hour ago, (Hoola)Han Solo said:

Fair points, but do you see the point in getting promoted? We look way out of our depth in a lot of the games and to be honest I find it quite embarrassing, I’m getting to the point where I wouldn’t mind finishing seventh in the Championship each season, with the hope of some excellent games thrown in. I’m of the opinion that I really want my football team to compete at the highest level possible, but this seems like a pipe dream with our current owners and the modern footballing landscape.

I was thinking earlier this season we haven’t improved at all on the previous PL season and while the points tally right now agrees I’m not sure it’s true based on a holistic view of the club right now. It’s just the progression is painfully slow and small and relies a bit too much on luck, if we don’t get promoted again after relegation that luck runs out.

If we can keep hold of Rashica and potentially Normann, continue to develop talents of players like Sargent at Idah, continue to bring through products like Rowe and Mumba the club will continue its slow progress to being a better quality team overall in my opinion. But that progress is inching us up a chasm of quality difference between us and even a team like Saints, let alone the big boys. One bad championship season and it potentially all collapses.

The only real issue to me is that finances are so tight that while every signing is a gamble, we don’t seem to be getting enough right. The Cantwell situation is another one, whatever went on there the upshot is we failed to manage a valuable talent and have let him go for a cut price of what he could have been worth if we had. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,356]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

 

1. Give up getting promoted.

2. Risk the future on a gamble on the chance that it may pay off.

3. Build steadily, accepting that we are likely to go up and down but by improving over time until hopefully we become established.

4. Find a multi-billionaire owner who is happy to gift us tens of millions of pounds every year.

Good post. Generally agree. The problem, though, is that (3) seems to get harder and harder. It's not just us, Fulham and West Brom have been serially promoted without taking the next step. Sheffield United had a second season in the PL and fat lot of good it did them. Leeds seem to be about to suffer the same. And if Brentford survive this year you'd imagine they'd struggle next season too.

I'm not going to get into a Delia discussion. Positions are too entrenched. But it is certainly worth noting that we are far from the only club having these struggles. 

[hogesar 9,674]

Look at Leeds. Much bigger club,  years in League One and the championship despite numerous rich owners. Now even richer owners and looking relegation in the face despite a "top" manager and significant spend overall. 

The entrenched view I dont get is the likes of @Jim Smith claiming the owners haven't done very well for us. Comparatively they've done better than about 18 similar sized clubs during their tenure and only about 4 you could argue have done better - and even thats only currently and temporarily.

[Yellow Wal 314]

3 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Look at Leeds. Much bigger club,  years in League One and the championship despite numerous rich owners. Now even richer owners and looking relegation in the face despite a "top" manager and significant spend overall. 

The entrenched view I dont get is the likes of @Jim Smith claiming the owners haven't done very well for us. Comparatively they've done better than about 18 similar sized clubs during their tenure and only about 4 you could argue have done better - and even thats only currently and temporarily.

The owners have done well by comparison to similar sized clubs but all the similar sized clubs are in the same boat. They make up the numbers in the Premiership so that a few well funded clubs can take all the glory, increase their wealth and subsequently firmly cement themselves in the Premiership they have made.

Meaningful rule changes could at least give other, less rich clubs a glimmer of hope because at the moment they have none.

[HazzaJet 253]

12 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Look at Leeds. Much bigger club,  years in League One and the championship despite numerous rich owners. Now even richer owners and looking relegation in the face despite a "top" manager and significant spend overall. 

The entrenched view I dont get is the likes of @Jim Smith claiming the owners haven't done very well for us. Comparatively they've done better than about 18 similar sized clubs during their tenure and only about 4 you could argue have done better - and even thats only currently and temporarily.

I agree. When you compare what we’ve achieved over the past 20 years to other clubs with much wealthier owners, I can’t see how anyone can say our owners haven’t done very well for us

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,138]

Thing is now it's been proven that we cannot compete in this league with the wealth of our owners it's going to demotivate everyone towards achieving promotion for at least the next few seasons. Even the players at the club, the core of the team know they're not good enough, you need a bit of quality plus belief and determination to get promoted and I think those last two aspects are going to be missing from this club for a while both in the club and in the stands

I don't actually know what the solution is, our situation is unique in English football, others go up and down, but when they go down they know it's because they've made bad decisions so they can at least have hope that they'll get it right eventually, in our case we know it's because it's our glass ceiling.

 

I don't think we're going to get a better sporting director/management combo than this (or when Farke was here), nor do I think we've got another set of Godfrey/lewis/Aarons/Cantwells coming through either like we've relied on recently, so for me it was now or never if we were going to get up and stay up and it's looked just as insurmountable as ever which points to it being our limit as a club with the owners we have. 

The owners aren't leaving, no one is dead serious about buying us and every year the gap between the PL and Championship will continue to grow, so what do we do? I have no idea tbh. 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Christoph Stiepermann

[Yellow Wal 314]

9 minutes ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

Thing is now it's been proven that we cannot compete in this league with the wealth of our owners

But we must remember that the wealth of the owners of several clubs the same size as us is much greater. But that wealth is of no benefit as we are talking of the difference between rich and mega-rich.

The top clubs have created their monopoly and a group of lesser clubs will not be allowed to change it.

The only way it can be changed is by making rule changes which no longer favour the top clubs.

[Monty13 2,234]

22 minutes ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

Thing is now it's been proven that we cannot compete in this league with the wealth of our owners it's going to demotivate everyone towards achieving promotion for at least the next few seasons. Even the players at the club, the core of the team know they're not good enough, you need a bit of quality plus belief and determination to get promoted and I think those last two aspects are going to be missing from this club for a while both in the club and in the stands

Don’t buy this personally, there’s loads of motivation for the players regardless of further relegations, personal wealth, opportunity to test yourself against the best, international recognition, potential to be picked up by a bigger team not to mention silverware potential on the way to promotion. 

I seriously doubt there’s a player in the Championship who isn’t motivated to get in the premier league because they may get relegated. That’s not the sort of attitude that makes you a successful professional sportsman.

[Badger 2,405]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Good post. Generally agree. The problem, though, is that (3) seems to get harder and harder. It's not just us, Fulham and West Brom have been serially promoted without taking the next step. Sheffield United had a second season in the PL and fat lot of good it did them. Leeds seem to be about to suffer the same. And if Brentford survive this year you'd imagine they'd struggle next season too.

I agree.

If a club of similar size to us stays up for 5 or 6 years they will have had nearly half a billion pounds extra revenue to a newly promoted premier league side of equal size (e.g. Forest). It is very hard for any team, even with a mega rich owner to catch this up. This is why the the idea that an investor prepared to put in £30 or £40 million is going to make all the difference: it is chicken feed.

As you point out most teams that are promoted go down either in year one or year two, some last a bit longer but go down more heavily in debt. It will be interesting to see what happens to Leeds - but because of their size and fan base they start with a £10 million+ advantage over us in the Premier League and as you have said they are struggling this year.

I don't see our current model as any guarantee of success but it is the most one likely to produce sustained Premier League status. If you "yo-yo" up and down with Premier League payments and then parachute payments you close the £500 million+ gap to a mere £250 million! (Extremely rough estimates, just to give a sense of scale.)

Where a small element of hope comes in is that some Premier clubs have sustained their position by adding to the Premier League money with high levels of debt. They cannot do this indefinitely and are one bad manager or poor transfer window from a very difficult future, creating space for somebody else. They start off every PL season, just as desperate to survive as we do.

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

3 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

The difference for me this time around the merry go round is that we were promised improvement but actually regressed. The sale of Buendia and loss of Skipp was suicide. The replacement strategy was risible. We have reaped where we sowed in summer. It really wasn't good enough. 

I think that this is a fair statement isn’t it?

Fans are frustrated after last night’s performance and have criticised it. 

Isn’t the truth actually worse than that?

Didn’t we see a side try their best, work hard, remain diligent, put effort in, but were simply inferior in almost every regard?

I find it hard to criticise that, though the cause-and-effect question then becomes salient. 

If we have to sell weapons and buy as-near-to-guaranteed longer term appreciating assets (surely the rationale behind the huge £30m investment in Sargent-Tszolis-Rashica), then this is a consequence of financial imperatives not sporting mores.

Presenting that as ISO:9001 gradual growth progression looks a stretch too far. It looks like an uncomfortable necessity fudge dressed as a strategy.

Parma 

Edited February 26, 2022 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[hogesar 9,674]

17 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

I think that this is a fair statement isn’t it?

No, not really. Because we haven't regressed. We will beat our points total from last time in this league and even if we go down, we will finish much closer and competitive to 17th place.

If @Dean Coneys boots genuinely thinks we have regressed then we will not get at least 4 points from our remaining games. I am more than happy to bet on that premise.

[glory.win or die. 270]

15 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

I think that this is a fair statement isn’t it?

Fans are frustrated after last night’s performance and have criticised it. 

Isn’t the truth actually worse than that?

Didn’t we see a side try their best, work hard, remain diligent, put effort in, but were simply inferior in almost every regard?

I find it hard to criticise that, though the cause-and-effect question then becomes salient. 

If we have to sell weapons and buy as-near-to-guaranteed longer term appreciating assets (surely the rationale behind the huge £30m investment in Sargent-Tszolis-Rashica), then this is a consequence of financial imperatives not sporting mores.

Presenting that as ISO:9001 gradual growth progression looks a stretch too far. It looks like an uncomfortable necessity fudge dressed as a strategy.

Parma 

More than once Southampton played simple one-twos out wide, and our players stopped and ball watched with no one tracking the runners.

That is unforgivable in any pro league.

We are weak, mentally and physically, it's like a good lightweight boxer up against an average heavyweight, our best shots are brushed off, and his worst shot knocks us down.

For what it's worth I think we have done incredibly well based on our owners and hugely over achieved, there are 20 or 30 similar sized clubs,with owners with100x the wealth we have, who have been no where near the prem in 20+ years.