So is Putin going to invade Ukraine anytime soon or..?

[1902 1,167]

49 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

"The Ukrainian army is no longer functioning in military formations, but now in fairly fixed defending positions and becoming more and more part of the territorial defence and volunteer force that it is operating alongside, he says." - BBC

Sounds like the Ukrainian army slowly but surely getting ground down by the Russians.

It means that they will become increasing isolated and unable to resupply. Casualties will be heavy on both sides and it will just become a succession of sieges that are destructive for the Russian army but ultimately will mean Ukraine can't hold out. 

Then the insurgency will begin. 

[1902 1,167]

24 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think that's more a case of pulling the Russians into the cities and horrific street to street fighting. In such places their armour can't manoeuvre so easily and hence levels things up a bit. Fighting the Russian in formation in the open doesn't to me sound sensible given your limited weapons. Simply the Ukrainians playing to their strength's.

It's not unfortunately their strength if they are encircled and unable to break out ever. Ammunition will run out, as will food and water. They can't be resupplied by the air and the Russian military doesn't actually need to advance quickly anymore, this is very much phase two.

Slow encirclement of population centres, heavy use of artillery and a gradual closing of the noose. It might last 10 days, but it's clear that the Kremlin feels this war is worth whatever cost they incur in the next few weeks.

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

8 minutes ago, 1902 said:

It's not unfortunately their strength if they are encircled and unable to break out ever. Ammunition will run out, as will food and water. They can't be resupplied by the air and the Russian military doesn't actually need to advance quickly anymore, this is very much phase two.

Slow encirclement of population centres, heavy use of artillery and a gradual closing of the noose. It might last 10 days, but it's clear that the Kremlin feels this war is worth whatever cost they incur in the next few weeks.

Nobody thinks the Ukrainians can hold out forever - but from a purely day to day battle, fighting in the streets is a better terrain for them than the open fields. The question is the cost for the Kremlin and how much time Putin has before Russian public opinion wises up.

[kirku 1,334]

Reports that Belarus have also joined the invasion

[1902 1,167]

13 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nobody thinks the Ukrainians can hold out forever - but from a purely day to day battle, fighting in the streets is a better terrain for them than the open fields. The question is the cost for the Kremlin and how much time Putin has before Russian public opinion wises up.

Russian public opinion won't. The media environment isn't there for it. Sanctions will bring a long period of frustration but they won't bring an end to the attack on the Ukraine anytime soon.

The question is, what does Putin want to do? Annex territory, decapitate the government and force Ukraine to disarm or occupy the whole country. That's the real question.

Fighting in the streets is better if they have adequate supplies of Anti-tank weapons and small arms ammunition. I suspect they don't have enough of either.

Edited March 1, 2022 by 1902

[ricardo 7,395]

39 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 The question is the cost for the Kremlin and how much time Putin has before Russian public opinion wises up.

The Kremlin controls the media and therefore the narrative is whatever they say it is.

As for the war, its a just a matter of where Putin decides to stop. An unpalatable fact but a fact never the less.

[KiwiScot 1,459]

Overthrowing a goverment is not an easy thing in this day and age and especially one like Russia and even Belarus recently. Russia will take over the Ukraine and setup a puppet goverment.

The sanctions might lead to a change of leadership from within the goverment, but only if Putin is ready to step away

It's what Russia wants to do next and this covers a 1-3 decade timespan. Europe now has to bulid up a sizeable miltary force for the future

[ricardo 7,395]

8 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

Overthrowing a goverment is not an easy thing in this day and age and especially one like Russia and even Belarus recently. Russia will take over the Ukraine and setup a puppet goverment.

The sanctions might lead to a change of leadership from within the goverment, but only if Putin is ready to step away

It's what Russia wants to do next and this covers a 1-3 decade timespan. Europe now has to bulid up a sizeable miltary force for the future

NATO is not going to get inviolved in this with troops on the ground so I think Putin will eventually swallow all or part of Ukraine. The West needs to think about the long game of keeping Russia locked out but unfortunately this won't work on anything short of a decadel timescale. We are now living in a different and more dangerous world but at least Europe and in particular Germany have realised that cuddling up to the Bear isn't a solution.

[kirku 1,334]

39 minutes ago, ricardo said:

NATO is not going to get inviolved in this with troops on the ground so I think Putin will eventually swallow all or part of Ukraine. The West needs to think about the long game of keeping Russia locked out but unfortunately this won't work on anything short of a decadel timescale. We are now living in a different and more dangerous world but at least Europe and in particular Germany have realised that cuddling up to the Bear isn't a solution.

This. Sadly.

[FenwayFrank 2,460]

1 hour ago, 1902 said:

Fighting in the streets is better if they have adequate supplies of Anti-tank weapons and small arms ammunition. I suspect they don't have enough of either

This is just from Sweden-

Andersson said 5,000 anti-tank weapons of the model “Pansarskott 86,” a single-use anti-tank launcher known internationally as Bofors AT-4, would be sent to Ukraine.

The decision to send arms, 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, and 5,000 pieces of body armor is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939, Andersson added.

 

Berlin to supply 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles in U-turn from its policy of banning weapon exports to conflict zones.

 

Looks like they've got enough to keep going for some time, on the basis it all got to them obviously 

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

17 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

This is just from Sweden-

Andersson said 5,000 anti-tank weapons of the model “Pansarskott 86,” a single-use anti-tank launcher known internationally as Bofors AT-4, would be sent to Ukraine.

The decision to send arms, 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, and 5,000 pieces of body armor is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939, Andersson added.

 

Berlin to supply 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles in U-turn from its policy of banning weapon exports to conflict zones.

 

Looks like they've got enough to keep going for some time, on the basis it all got to them obviously 

I think we were shipping NLAW anti-tank and indeed training them on their use last January. They are however short range systems.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/01/25/the-uk-airmailed-2000-nlaw-missiles-to-ukraine-are-they-useful/

Edited March 1, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

22 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

This is just from Sweden-

Andersson said 5,000 anti-tank weapons of the model “Pansarskott 86,” a single-use anti-tank launcher known internationally as Bofors AT-4, would be sent to Ukraine.

The decision to send arms, 135,000 field rations, 5,000 helmets, and 5,000 pieces of body armor is the first time Sweden has sent weapons to a country in armed conflict since the Soviet Union attacked Finland in 1939, Andersson added.

 

Berlin to supply 1,000 anti-tank weapons and 500 Stinger missiles in U-turn from its policy of banning weapon exports to conflict zones.

 

Looks like they've got enough to keep going for some time, on the basis it all got to them obviously 

How are they getting them to them?

[kirku 1,334]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

How are they getting them to them?

Land border, one would imagine.

Hungary yesterday refused to allow weapons to transit through the country so I assume this means land transport rather than closing of airspace

[FenwayFrank 2,460]

10 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

How are they getting them to them?

Amazon

[ricardo 7,395]

There is a 40 mile convoy of Russian armour just sitting patiently waiting to advance on Kiev. The very fact that it has not been disrupted should tell us that the Ukranians don't have much to stop it, sadly. There have been a number of fire fights but nothing that suggests an actual armoured battle from what I can see reported. Supplying arms and preparing positions should have been done weeks ago, this is now too little too late

[1902 1,167]

33 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think we were shipping NLAW anti-tank and indeed training them on their use last January. They are however short range systems.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/01/25/the-uk-airmailed-2000-nlaw-missiles-to-ukraine-are-they-useful/

 

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

There is a 40 mile convoy of Russian armour just sitting patiently waiting to advance on Kiev. The very fact that it has not been disrupted should tell us that the Ukranians don't have much to stop it, sadly. There have been a number of fire fights but nothing that suggests an actual armoured battle from what I can see reported. Supplying arms and preparing positions should have been done weeks ago, this is now too little too late

And here lies the issue, we have supplied the army too late, what we have supplied was designed to be of use during an insurgency and street to street conflict in cities not in open warfare (because that was seen as the bigger deterrent and the smallest provocation).

Now we have forced the Ukrainians to fight in big population centres alongside civilians to try to inflict maximum pain on Russia and hope to make the cost as high for them as possible. The issue is the main casualties will be Ukraine's citizens.

The EU has agreed to supply a large number of Migs from Eastern European stores, but who is going to fly them, what C and C infrastructure is there to direct them? 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

22 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

Amazon

Do you have to stay in all day?

[ricardo 7,395]

BREAKING:

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has just said that it is unacceptable for Russia that the US has nuclear weapons in Europe.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1498610625861373955

 

We've just seen what happens to a country that voluntarily gives them up.

Anybody want to be next?

[ricardo 7,395]

4 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Do you have to stay in all day?

You can inform them on the internet now if you're going out.

Example

I shall not be in today to receive my wire guided anti tank weapon, please leave in box behind the shed.

[KiwiScot 1,459]

33 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I shall not be in today to receive my wire guided anti tank weapon, please leave in box behind the shed.

Please don't leave with a neighbour

[Herman 9,802]

Lighter news. Marine Le Pen has to pulp over a million election pamphlets as the photo of her with Putin wasn't very popular. 

[Mello Yello 2,298]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think we were shipping NLAW anti-tank and indeed training them on their use last January. They are however short range systems.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sebastienroblin/2022/01/25/the-uk-airmailed-2000-nlaw-missiles-to-ukraine-are-they-useful/

[kirku 1,334]

 

Details of American units and seems to indicate their intentions on Moldova/Transnistria

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

You can inform them on the internet now if you're going out.

Example

I shall not be in today to receive my wire guided anti tank weapon, please leave in box behind the shed.

I bet you have stuff stashed behind your couch for the impending doom💥

[FenwayFrank 2,460]

Just in case, don’t forget to pull the curtains ! 

 

 

Edited March 1, 2022 by FenwayFrank

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

 

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

You can inform them on the internet now if you're going out.

Example

I shall not be in today to receive my wire guided anti tank weapon, please leave in box behind the shed.

I think Zelenskiy is writing 'Return to Sender, Address unknown' on all those 'gifts' from Putin.

[KernowCanary 214]

2 hours ago, FenwayFrank said:

Just in case, don’t forget to pull the curtains ! 

 

 

…. and make a makeshift shelter like Jim Bloggs on “When the Wind Blows”…… strangely enough, that was about a Russian nuclear bomb. The leaflets Jim reads to make the shelter are the Protect and Survive ones that also were tie-ins for this public info film.

Panic buying is also referenced in “When the Wind Blows” and that was made in 1986.

Edited March 1, 2022 by KernowCanary

[Mr Apples 1,325]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I bet you have stuff stashed behind your couch for the impending doom

All those Brexit/Covid-stashed bog rolls, dried pasta and tins of corned beef...he knew they would come in handy eventually? 🤔🤣

Apples

[Foxy2600 305]

RT is tonight on fire with rewriting history 

I’m actually gonna record it for its …. Posterity really, in 12 months time it will be regarded as a joke. 

[Foxy2600 305]

2 minutes ago, Mr Apples said:

All those Brexit/Covid-stashed bog rolls, dried pasta and tins of corned beef...he knew they would come in handy eventually? 🤔🤣

Apples Brexit