Corona Virus main thread

[Well b back 3,208]

11 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Open up the nightingale hospitals for covid only patients, they were completely unused in the first ‘wave’, if necessary open more. Keep the economy open and learn to live with the virus, we have all our eggs in one basket waiting for a vaccine that might never actually come or if it does may not work as desired, if that’s the case then we have no option but to live with it. And perhaps it’s time we had a grown up conversation about death, when people reach their elder years there are many things that will result in their deaths and  as heartless as that may sound it’s reality, life is a terminal disease and none of us are getting off this planet alive 

 

 

 

We are trying to open the nightingales but there is not enough staff.

I object to a lockdown but I like Sonyc have been locked down for a number of weeks now. 

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

We are trying to open the nightingales but there is not enough staff.

I object to a lockdown but I like Sonyc have been locked down for a number of weeks now. 

There was a massive recruitment push for staff to come of of retirement for the first wave, I was under the impression thousands signed up? 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[Well b back 3,208]

I would like to ask a serious question Teemu and please don’t think I am winding you up it is serious.

Will you be actively encouraging people to break whatever the new lock down rules are ? And if there is a vaccine in December will you be encouraging people not to take it ?

[Well b back 3,208]

1 minute ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

There was a massive recruitment push for staff to come of of retirement for the first wave, I was under the impression thousands signed up? 

Our nurses are having to be switched to Covid wards and the NHS have said there was not enough staff, not me saying it. They don’t want to stop with the cancer patients ect. It’s a catch 22

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Our nurses are having to be switched to Covid wards and the NHS have said there was not enough staff, not me saying it. They don’t want to stop with the cancer patients ect. It’s a catch 22

Then if we don’t have the staff I don’t know what  we can do. All I will say is my point about a grown up conversation about death, if giving an 87 year old a little longer is costing the lives of a 38 year old mother of two then we are saving the wrong lives I’m afraid. Which ever way we go people are going to die, we can’t control that but trading the lives of the elderly for the lives of the young is not my answer on how to handle this.

[Mark .Y. 352]

The thing that completely bemuses me is that Prof Tim Spector (from Zoe), whose opinion is one that I have valued - says that the spread of the virus is not out of control. He says his is the largest data source available and is broadly in line with the ONS statistics.

Can anybody explain why he is nowhere near as concerned as others ??  

Edited October 31, 2020 by Mark .Y.

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

14 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I would like to ask a serious question Teemu and please don’t think I am winding you up it is serious.

Will you be actively encouraging people to break whatever the new lock down rules are ? And if there is a vaccine in December will you be encouraging people not to take it ?

There was some charts I saw somewhere this morning - (trying to locate) which gave the NHS planning predictions as to when the regional NHS hospitals (including Nightingales) would exceed surge capacity. Yes total NHS capacity burnt through.

Only London made it to Xmas (just)

Oddly the SW was one of earliest to collapse.

It is this catastrophe that Johnson is staring at. No doubt it's the same as Merkel and Macron stared at as well.

To go beyond that chasm would imply ruthless triage and the military drafted in to maintain social order. It's simply not an option. 

Do not underestimate the challenge facing the UK and all 'liberal' democracies.

Edited October 31, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

24 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I would like to ask a serious question Teemu and please don’t think I am winding you up it is serious.

Will you be actively encouraging people to break whatever the new lock down rules are ? And if there is a vaccine in December will you be encouraging people not to take it ?

I’ve stuck to the rules as much as is possible, I work in an environment where it’s not possible to stick to them but out of work I can honestly say I haven’t broken them once. The vaccine should be up to personal choice but I would encourage the elderly and any vulnerable to have it. I won’t be having it unless they make life practically impossible to live without it and I think they will. As for following future lockdown rules the only one we will break will be to visit my terminally ill father in law, terminally ill because his cancer diagnosis lasted from the beginning of lockdown and well into the weeks after lockdown was lifted

edit: actually I have broken the rules once to see family that we hadn’t seen for months

Edited October 31, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[Barbe bleu 826]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

There was some charts I saw somewhere this morning -(trying to locate) which gave the NHS planning predictions as to when the regional NHS hospitals (including Nightingales) wou exceed surge capacity. Yes total NHS capacity burnt through.

Only London made it to Xmas (just)

Oddly the SW was one of earliest to collapse.

It is this catastrophe that Johnson is staring at. No doubt it's the same as Merkel and Macron stared at as well.

To go beyond that chasm would imply ruthless triage and the military drafted in to maintain social order. It's simply not an option. 

Do not underestimate the challenge facing the UK and all 'liberal' democracies.

Thats a pretty grim analysis

On that basis we could lockdown now for a month,  open up in December and see the capacity burnt through in February anyway.

In many ways this is worse than the problem we had in March.  We have the whole season to face not just the very end of it. In thst analysis 'early adopter' regions have a bit of resilience but clearly no easy answers unless we get that bloody vaccine!

[Well b back 3,208]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

There was some charts I saw somewhere this morning -(trying to locate) which gave the NHS planning predictions as to when the regional NHS hospitals (including Nightingales) wou exceed surge capacity. Yes total NHS capacity burnt through.

Only London made it to Xmas (just)

Oddly the SW was one of earliest to collapse.

It is this catastrophe that Johnson is staring at. No doubt it's the same as Merkel and Macron stared at as well.

To go beyond that chasm would imply ruthless triage and the military drafted in to maintain social order. It's simply not an option. 

Do not underestimate the challenge facing the UK and all 'liberal' democracies.

The schools shutting last time helped as teachers ( a similar type of person ) volunteered in their droves. 
I really am not sure so please don’t shoot me down but I wonder if this North / South devide is becoming more evident. In the North we can see our hospitals filling ( as I am sure Sonyc will agree ), down South they are still reasonably empty. Then the people, up here in the North as more of us find ourselves in tier 2 and 3 there is little protection for businesses and employees, where the perception is national lockdown would protect those businesses a bit more. 

[sonyc 5,519]

32 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

What happened to the thousands of staff that they got out of retirement for the first wave? 

Surely, we cannot be basing our response on former professionals Teemu? Hasn't there been a loss since April too? Not sure.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Surely, we cannot be basing our response on former professionals Teemu? Hasn't there been a loss since April too? Not sure.

That was their plan 8 months ago! 

[Well b back 3,208]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thats a pretty grim analysis

On that basis we could lockdown now for a month,  open up in December and see the capacity burnt through in February anyway.

In many ways this is worse than the problem we had in March.  We have the whole season to face not just the very end of it. In thst analysis 'early adopter' regions have a bit of resilience but clearly no easy answers unless we get that bloody vaccine!

Spot on.

Oxford ( so I assume other scientists as well ) are arguing that had we had 2 weeks at every 1/2 term and end of term this would have been far less severe in the long run. Their predictions are there won’t even be an impact for 2 weeks and then will they be down to a level where they will be able to carry on going down.

In a lot of people’s eyes he ignored the science, who were only recommending 2 weeks not 4. If it had gone wrong, then he could point to the facts, not sure what he will do today, he trusted his judgement and it went wrong, risking lives, ( not just Covid ) and our job security, let alone our economy. Wether he has got it right or wrong he will always be remembered for ignoring the advice.

[Well b back 3,208]

It is now being widely reported schools will be shut next week, but not sure of where it has come from

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It is now being widely reported schools will be shut next week, but not sure of where it has come from

Disgraceful and unjustifiable if true. That will be met with widespread condemnation 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[A Load of Squit 5,164]

 

Nadine Dorries is stupid as mud.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Thats a pretty grim analysis

On that basis we could lockdown now for a month,  open up in December and see the capacity burnt through in February anyway.

In many ways this is worse than the problem we had in March.  We have the whole season to face not just the very end of it. In thst analysis 'early adopter' regions have a bit of resilience but clearly no easy answers unless we get that bloody vaccine!

Laura Kuessberg twttter.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1322482139523358720/photo/1

 

 

 

 

[Jools 584]

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-rates-are-not-surging

Covid rates are not surging, in which case there should be no lockdown. 

[Well b back 3,208]

37 minutes ago, Jools said:

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-rates-are-not-surging

Covid rates are not surging, in which case there should be no lockdown. 

Try moving to Birmingham. 
This misinformation is what’s got us here.

[Well b back 3,208]

Press Announcement at 5 PM this evening.

Hopefully will see jobs and wages protected. 

[Well b back 3,208]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

 

Nadine Dorries is stupid as mud.

 

As predicted.

No one will believe him this time and that will create a problem in its own right.

[sonyc 5,519]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

 

Nadine Dorries is stupid as mud.

 

Crystal ball haha! 

 

[Well b back 3,208]

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Crystal ball haha! 

 

Crystal ball ? How about the ZOE App ?

[Jools 584]

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Press Announcement at 5 PM this evening.

Hopefully will see jobs and wages protected. 

If we have another lockdown it's because opinion polls support one --- I say cease all furlough money and give people a sample of the mass poverty that is coming and I suspect the polls would change drastically.

Do you think the government have infinite amounts of free money that they can dish out without any consequence?

[Well b back 3,208]

Hi Sonyc

Can you comment on that article Jools has just put up ? Is that really what they saying or is it made up ?

[BigFish 1,987]

3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

We dont know what effect of a half term circuit breaker would have been but I am certain that the disease would have made up for it in no time at all.

 

To me the relative success of this measure will be: did hospitals get overrun and did we enjoy Christmas.

With the vaccine seemingly getting ever further away lockdown as a means of hiding until it is ready is an ever more remote possibility (and I had much confidence a couple of months ago)

This virus goes out the window one of three ways.  1) every single case anywhere in the world is eliminated 2) we get herd immunity naturally 3) the same is achieved by vaccine

Which of these does a lockdown help is achieve? If thenanswer is none all it does is delay and suppress.  Fine if there is a particular goal in mind otherwise is there any point in it?

 

4) The virus becomes endemic but the country has a rapid response mechanism to shut down each outbreak as soon as it occurs.

Lockdown would buy the time to develop the mechanism

[Well b back 3,208]

4 minutes ago, Jools said:

If we have another lockdown it's because opinion polls support one --- I say cease all furlough money and give people a sample of the mass poverty that is coming and I suspect the polls would change drastically.

Do you think the government have infinite amounts of free money that they can dish out without any consequence?

[sonyc 5,519]

3 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi Sonyc

Can you comment on that article Jools has just put up ? Is that really what they saying or is it made up ?

They have been saying it's a steady increase but not 'surging'. Splitting hairs though isn't it what term is used. It's about Sage's view on the NHS. It's what is driving policy.

[Jools 584]

19 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Try moving to Birmingham. 
This misinformation is what’s got us here.

You've constantly argued that people don't follow a few simple rules... Well, in Birmingham's case you may be right:

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-shisha-lounge-filled-150-19197548

[Well b back 3,208]

Fully appreciate that but what is the option ?

Lots of things can be blamed mainly us for not keeping to the rules, encouraged by the Goverment and misinformation. Surely 2 weeks was better than the month we face now, but if and I stress if the scientists are right it’s to late for a month to put it right.