Corona Virus main thread

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

9 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Trouble is you are ducking debating the problems with the positions he’s making and are retreating into saying he’s as  “knowledgeable in their field as anyone on the sage board” (so he says - what are his qualifications?) but if you’re just blindly relying on someone else’s opinion, why not rely on the opinions of the people who have been appointed to guide the country because of their experience in the area i.e. the actual sage board. Basically you’re saying the sage board are all in on some bizarre conspiracy and you’d rather rely on some random guy from Twitter who claims he’s an expert and ignore the obvious holes in his arguments.

 

[sonyc 5,489]

Here is the weekly independent Sage briefing. It is long but  people may wish to watch the first part which gives an overview and tentative interpretation of the figures. Interesting early results showing in NI and Scotland.

This is my 'go to' place for information. They are all serious scientists and I trust them, believing, rightly or wrongly that they apply their thinking to a pandemic.

These briefings take place every Friday lunchtime. Occasionally some of the group have their microphone on which interrupts the main speaker but you learn to tune it out.

(It's introduced by Alice Roberts, a scientist and presenter I like and trust I have to admit). 

[sonyc 5,489]

13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The media seem desperate to push lockdown.

The media just reflect the general public / popular view though don't they?

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

 

What are your thoughts on the ons data released today Teemu? 
 

Edited October 30, 2020 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,343]

If you go to the coronavirus dashboard you can see how its going in your local authority area.

In Norwich 30 positives were reported today.

984 positives since the epidemic began in March.

[sonyc 5,489]

Sorry, wrong link above. Here is this week's!

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

If you go to the coronavirus dashboard you can see how its going in your local authority area.

In Norwich 30 positives were reported today.

984 positives since the epidemic began in March.

Don’t take it for granted.

Big issues around contact tracing and the outbreaks in food processing plants,  workers living closely in HMOs, gang masters insisting people work rather than self isolate and moving them around sites, very difficult........just a little insight!

Still the safest part of the country pretty much

Edited October 30, 2020 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,190]

18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

What are your thoughts on the ons data released today Teemu? 
 

It’s all fake !

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It’s all fake !

😁. I am genuinely interested to hear the reasoned arguments. For every expert that is denying what is going in on I can direct you to 10 contact tracers and I’m sure many more front line NHS staff who would be happy to discuss the issue.

Edited October 30, 2020 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,190]

18 minutes ago, ricardo said:

If you go to the coronavirus dashboard you can see how its going in your local authority area.

In Norwich 30 positives were reported today.

984 positives since the epidemic began in March.

This is now going to begin to come to a head soon. Birmingham are telling the government it’s pointless putting Birmingham and the surrounding areas into tier 3 it now has to be a 4 week national lockdown.

I assume Sonyc sees the same in his area, the North is beginning to revolt. Coming from the fine County of course I hear both sides of the argument, my friends in Norfolk tell me why should we be locked down there is no virus here, equally up here people tell me why are we expected to lock down simply to protect the South. I have sympathy with both sides, but the North are beginning to revolt.

[ricardo 7,343]

For the locals.

[Well b back 3,190]

5 minutes ago, Van wink said:

😁. I am genuinely interested to hear the reasoned arguments. For every expert that is denying what is going in on I can direct you to 10 contact tracers and I’m sure many more front line NHS staff who would be happy to discuss the issue.

Hi VW

Sorry. My comment was not aimed at your data just the reply if it does not suit.

[Well b back 3,190]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

😁. I am genuinely interested to hear the reasoned arguments. For every expert that is denying what is going in on I can direct you to 10 contact tracers and I’m sure many more front line NHS staff who would be happy to discuss the issue.

Indeed

A very good friend of ours works in ICU ( something she didn’t do before March but like many was transferred ). They are working 5 days a week, 12 hours a day no 1 week off in 4 anymore. I ask her about the odd snippet, but she is so stressed. Hope these people are remembered for the rest of their lives, just like our war veterans, it’s not a lot different by the sound of it.

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

Sorry. My comment was not aimed at your data just the reply if it does not suit.

 

13 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

Sorry. My comment was not aimed at your data just the reply if it does not suit.

I know 👍

[sonyc 5,489]

18 minutes ago, Well b back said:

This is now going to begin to come to a head soon. Birmingham are telling the government it’s pointless putting Birmingham and the surrounding areas into tier 3 it now has to be a 4 week national lockdown.

I assume Sonyc sees the same in his area, the North is beginning to revolt. Coming from the fine County of course I hear both sides of the argument, my friends in Norfolk tell me why should we be locked down there is no virus here, equally up here people tell me why are we expected to lock down simply to protect the South. I have sympathy with both sides, but the North are beginning to revolt.

Do watch today's Indy Sage video Wbb. Very instructional with their view ahead and how to navigate out. The first 20 minutes is the figures and interpretation.

Ps. For some people the north has always been revolting!

Edited October 30, 2020 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,744]

42 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Sorry, wrong link above. Here is this week's!

When I watch these presentations (which frankly only confirm what many have been saying for weeks or even months) is when will the government admit defeat with its current timid policy and move to their plan B (or is it C).

My own opinion is that they are too far up the political creek without any paddle and now far too proud to admit Sage (and Starmer) and also it seems the population at large were right and to admit their error.

Sadly its the health of the nation and economy that will pay the price for their childish intransigence.

[Jools 584]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

The media seem desperate to push lockdown.

Where were the lockdown fanatics two years ago?:

[sonyc 5,489]

26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

When I watch these presentations (which frankly only confirm what many have been saying for weeks or even months) is when will the government admit defeat with its current timid policy and move to their plan B (or is it C).

My own opinion is that they are too far up the political creek without any paddle and now far too proud to admit Sage (and Starmer) and also it seems the population at large were right and to admit their error.

Sadly its the health of the nation and economy that will pay the price for their childish intransigence.

I thought that last graph on the first woman's presentation shows the issue. What was it....many months to reduce infections (ergo hospitalisation and more pressure) by using Tier 3 Plus OR 3/4 weeks of hard lockdown (R to around 0.6 as last time) or some way in between at R at 0.85? The former means LESS pressure on businesses than the slow and painful death of business the way it is now! And that is putting the health issue somewhat to the side for a moment.

To give you an example we've had restrictions for months now and in tier 2 for a good while. It hasn't got better (note her graphs too on the tiers....not strong enough!).

Totally agree with you. I'm exasperated. I assume it's simply ideological. And so many on this thread critical too of lockdowns but presumably support the tiers? Which don't work! Perhaps those supportive of the government (Conservative voters essentially) don't wish to criticise policy? I'm looking at this from the point of view of a health (and therefore economic) crisis. The agendas are so linked.

I really don't understand. I'm off the fence with my view about a week ago. But....there is an inkling of a slowing in the north east at least. In terms of active cases, it's about 5 to 6% in my metro area at present (Zoe). Perhaps it's a geographical thing. If you live south of the Midlands it doesn't worry you as much? I don't understand as stated.

People seem to simply want to have a go  for wanting folk to be safe by posting about flu and survival / death rates etc. Yet, I look at it as lives that might not be lost and what kind of suppression we might apply for the best outcomes all round. It's a trade off.

But the alternative is to let it be? What do people posting the videos really want? How would they deal with it? You can't deal with it by simply calling everyone who disagrees wrong! That isn't constructive.

 

Edited October 30, 2020 by sonyc

[ricardo 7,343]

The positive count has been stuck in the low to mid 20k's for the last eleven days. We have to go back 25 days to find anything that looks like a doubling rate. In the UK there are high R rates in the north and low or static R rates in the south and London.

European rates continue to fluctuate a lot (maybe due to their data collecting procedures). Deaths continue to hovver around the 200 mark. The R.K.Institute in Germany report variable  R rates in different regions. (1.06 to 1.21)

European deaths from respitory diseases are in line with seasonal expectations. No excess deaths as yet.

For some reason people that would have been dying of flu in any normal year are now dying of Cov2.

 

 

[sonyc 5,489]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

For some reason people that would have been dying of flu in any normal year are now dying of Cov2.

That indeed is baffling. Completely. Perhaps some studies will emerge to explain soon.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

10 minutes ago, Jools said:

Where were the lockdown fanatics two years ago?:

 

[ricardo 7,343]

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

That indeed is baffling. Completely. Perhaps some studies will emerge to explain soon.

Its scared the flu away😉

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its scared the flu away😉

What a surprise that absolutely no one could have foreseen....

[Well b back 3,190]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its scared the flu away😉

Hi Ricardo

Yes I didn’t quite know wether to believe China.

I am guessing China broke the normal link with Flu then add, not so many travelled in or out of China, many more over here vulnerable have already had the flu jab and with the flu seeming a bit more difficult to catch we now wash our hands, keep our distance, wear masks ect.

Those figures are astonishing.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8875201/Has-Covid-killed-flu.html

[Well b back 3,190]

26 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I thought that last graph on the first woman's presentation shows the issue. What was it....many months to reduce infections (ergo hospitalisation and more pressure) by using Tier 3 Plus OR 3/4 weeks of hard lockdown (R to around 0.6 as last time) or some way in between at R at 0.85? The former means LESS pressure on businesses than the slow and painful death of business the way it is now! And that is putting the health issue somewhat to the side for a moment.

To give you an example we've had restrictions for months now and in tier 2 for a good while. It hasn't got better (note her graphs too on the tiers....not strong enough!).

Totally agree with you. I'm exasperated. I assume it's simply ideological. And so many on this thread critical too of lockdowns but presumably support the tiers? Which don't work! Perhaps those supportive of the government (Conservative voters essentially) don't wish to criticise policy? I'm looking at this from the point of view of a health (and therefore economic) crisis. The agendas are so linked.

I really don't understand. I'm off the fence with my view about a week ago. But....there is an inkling of a slowing in the north east at least. In terms of active cases, it's about 5 to 6% in my metro area at present (Zoe). Perhaps it's a geographical thing. If you live south of the Midlands it doesn't worry you as much? I don't understand as stated.

People seem to simply want to have a go  for wanting folk to be safe by posting about flu and survival / death rates etc. Yet, I look at it as lives that might not be lost and what kind of suppression we might apply for the best outcomes all round. It's a trade off.

But the alternative is to let it be? What do people posting the videos really want? How would they deal with it? You can't deal with it by simply calling everyone who disagrees wrong! That isn't constructive.

 

I live Midlands Sonyc.

It is everywhere. I watch it marching down the country each week, unless something happens you know after us in the larger Birmingham area it will be Coventry, 2 weeks time it will be Northampton MK, week after that London.

My post earlier may have got lost in the many today, but are you finding Leeds ( is that where you are ) beginning to revolt. Birmingham area leaders telling Boris we don’t want tier 3 it’s all not working it’s a National 4 week lockdown or nothing. Not sure they will stick to it, but the people have had enough, they think they are being victimised.

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Do watch today's Indy Sage video Wbb. Very instructional with their view ahead and how to navigate out. The first 20 minutes is the figures and interpretation.

Ps. For some people the north has always been revolting!

Sorry forget my last one can see you replied.

will listen now - thanks

[sonyc 5,489]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I live Midlands Sonyc.

It is everywhere. I watch it marching down the country each week, unless something happens you know after us in the larger Birmingham area it will be Coventry, 2 weeks time it will be Northampton MK, week after that London.

My post earlier may have got lost in the many today, but are you finding Leeds ( is that where you are ) beginning to revolt. Birmingham area leaders telling Boris we don’t want tier 3 it’s all not working it’s a National 4 week lockdown or nothing. Not sure they will stick to it, but the people have had enough, they think they are being victimised.

Yes, but negotiations have been going on for an age...annoyance would be the best word. Practically (if you're really interested!) the LA has given the government 26 recommendations (attached) but I doubt somehow whether they get anywhere with it!! (Yet Bradford was talked up by Whitty in how they have tried to be responsible). I'm near Leeds the too. Don't forget both Leeds boundary too and like Bradford it too is under Labour control so more likely to be more critical. Just needs to be said for perspective.

26 recommendations:

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18835920.26-recommendations-government-support-bradford-covid-19-recovery/

 

[ricardo 7,343]

[Well b back 3,190]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, but negotiations have been going on for an age...annoyance would be the best word. Practically (if you're really interested!) the LA has given the government 26 recommendations (attached) but I doubt somehow whether they get anywhere with it!! (Yet Bradford was talked up by Whitty in how they have tried to be responsible). I'm near Leeds the too. Don't forget both Leeds boundary too and like Bradford it too is under Labour control so more likely to be more critical. Just needs to be said for perspective.

26 recommendations:

https://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/18835920.26-recommendations-government-support-bradford-covid-19-recovery/

 

Thanks for that, Birmingham is Labour council. Haven’t got a link yet but he was even BBC main news he is insisting National.

If Boris was a leader he would never had allowed Manchester to undermine him, now they all want as they have seen his weakness.

My wife’s father is now in a care home, unfortunately Covid got her mum. He is desperate for visitors but I sought of see where care homes are on this. You see your family for an hour you could now have Covid so 14 day quarantine for you, it’s unfair on other residents to have even a remote chance of being exposed. This time round the care homes ( if not the residents ) are the big success story to date. And in fairness as well a lot of the carers are sacrificing their own social lives to protect their residents. The big game changer will be this 20 minute test they keep telling us about.