sonyc 5,492 Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Well b back said: Thanks for that, Birmingham is Labour council. Haven’t got a link yet but he was even BBC main news he is insisting National. If Boris was a leader he would never had allowed Manchester to undermine him, now they all want as they have seen his weakness. My wife’s father is now in a care home, unfortunately Covid got her mum. He is desperate for visitors but I sought of see where care homes are on this. You see your family for an hour you could now have Covid so 14 day quarantine for you, it’s unfair on other residents to have even a remote chance of being exposed. This time round the care homes ( if not the residents ) are the big success story to date. And in fairness as well a lot of the carers are sacrificing their own social lives to protect their residents. The big game changer will be this 20 minute test they keep telling us about. Sorry to hear that WBB. What a dilemma. I read this a month ago. It's a group that are campaigning for carers/visitors to have key worker status. Very reasonable campaign given that folk in nursing homes may be in their last years anyway. Campaign - Rights for Residents https://www.rightsforresidents.co.uk/campaign/ 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) A bit of wishful thinking going on with seasonal flu. Yes Covid restrictions and hygiene will naturally suppress all other such respiratory diseases - and of course seasonal flu often originates / sweeps in from SE asia (not much travel these days) But whatever - the season has hardly started yet. Long may our luck continue! Edited October 30, 2020 by Yellow Fever Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,190 Posted October 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: A bit of wishful thinking going on with seasonal flu. Yes Covid restrictions and hygiene will naturally suppress all other such respiratory diseases - and of course seasonal flu often originates / sweeps in from SE asia (not much travel these days) But whatever - the season has hardly started yet. Long may our luck continue! I agree YF but we all need to hope, those initial figures were unusually low remembering they weren’t the ones now, the ones now say 2 in hospital. It seems as well flu jabs are through the roof. I think much of it depends on wether China are telling the truth, unlike Covid cant see why they would lie about that. If it is the flu jab being used more, then one prays that any Covid vaccine has the same effect. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,190 Posted October 30, 2020 Don’t shoot the messenger as Belgium go into lockdown with usual these days ( schools, factories ect unaffected ) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54752194 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,190 Posted October 30, 2020 Fact checking website, anyone dare register ? Lol. The false positives is a good one, I had wondered where that came from, Facebook lol. https://fullfact.org/online/stop-getting-tested-false-positive/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,492 Posted October 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Well b back said: Don’t shoot the messenger as Belgium go into lockdown with usual these days ( schools, factories ect unaffected ) https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54752194 Did you see the video (first 20) and if so, any thoughts/reactions to the content? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Teemu’s right foot 53 Posted October 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Well b back said: Fact checking website, anyone dare register ? Lol. The false positives is a good one, I had wondered where that came from, Facebook lol. https://fullfact.org/online/stop-getting-tested-false-positive/ The false positives is a massive problem with testing and not something to “lol” over. It’s causing a massive economic hit with people having to self isolate for 14 days even if tested as a false positive. Not only do they have to isolate for 14 day but also all contacts that they have given to the tracers even though they haven’t actually got the virus. I know this very well as a family member was contacted by the tracers and told to isolate for 14 days, it then transpired the person who they had been in contact with was a false positive, that didn’t matter and the tracers contacted them every day to check they were isolating at great personal expense to themselves Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said: The false positives is a massive problem with testing and not something to “lol” over. It’s causing a massive economic hit with people having to self isolate for 14 days even if tested as a false positive. Not only do they have to isolate for 14 day but also all contacts that they have given to the tracers even though they haven’t actually got the virus. I know this very well as a family member was contacted by the tracers and told to isolate for 14 days, it then transpired the person who they had been in contact with was a false positive, that didn’t matter and the tracers contacted them every day to check they were isolating at great personal expense to themselves whilst you are correct, the fact check website does make a crucial point that the 93% figure is completely wrong and its more like 0.9%. Absolutely no denying that we are in a horrible mess now and have hit a critical point in our response. I just wish this vaccine would hurry the hell up! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Teemu’s right foot 53 Posted October 30, 2020 Just now, Tetteys Jig said: whilst you are correct, the fact check website does make a crucial point that the 93% figure is completely wrong and its more like 0.9%. Absolutely no denying that we are in a horrible mess now and have hit a critical point in our response. I just wish this vaccine would hurry the hell up! Call it 1% for the sake of argument. Testing capacity of say 400k tests per day. If full testing capacity is taken daily for a week we have a situation where we could have anywhere up to 100k people a week with false positives and contacts self isolating because of a testing system that isn’t fit for purpose. Absolutely huge financial hit on individuals and businesses for nothing Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rock The Boat 1,325 Posted October 30, 2020 4 hours ago, Well b back said: Indeed Ricardo. I have been to the fine County today and it really is a different world and I hope you can keep it like that, but you really must all stay within the guidelines. When I arrived home I drove to the post office. In that short distance 3 ambulances, blue lights flashing. Cant say certainly for Covid, but I am sure Sonyc will agree it’s invisible but you can feel it and smell it. If the local news is correct by Wednesday just about every area above Coventry will be tier 3 and tier 2 at best. I really do hope it stops it on its March South, but I fear complacency will creep in and that’s when it gets you unaware. Did you see those flu figures ? So far astonishing and tieing in with China, let’s hope they can carry on that way. Wheres that bloody vaccine. Mate, you're getting paranoid. You need to get out more. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rock The Boat 1,325 Posted October 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Well b back said: Indeed A very good friend of ours works in ICU ( something she didn’t do before March but like many was transferred ). They are working 5 days a week, 12 hours a day no 1 week off in 4 anymore. I ask her about the odd snippet, but she is so stressed. Hope these people are remembered for the rest of their lives, just like our war veterans, it’s not a lot different by the sound of it. Normal at the beginning of the winter flu season. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,190 Posted October 30, 2020 36 minutes ago, sonyc said: Did you see the video (first 20) and if so, any thoughts/reactions to the content? Have now, gosh. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rock The Boat 1,325 Posted October 30, 2020 2 hours ago, ricardo said: The positive count has been stuck in the low to mid 20k's for the last eleven days. We have to go back 25 days to find anything that looks like a doubling rate. In the UK there are high R rates in the north and low or static R rates in the south and London. European rates continue to fluctuate a lot (maybe due to their data collecting procedures). Deaths continue to hovver around the 200 mark. The R.K.Institute in Germany report variable R rates in different regions. (1.06 to 1.21) European deaths from respitory diseases are in line with seasonal expectations. No excess deaths as yet. For some reason people that would have been dying of flu in any normal year are now dying of Cov2. They are being recorded as dying of Covid. There's a lot of face-saving going on. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,492 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Well b back said: Have now, gosh. It's at odds with quite a few posters' views here. Such a dichotomy of views! And most well argued and with conviction. Edited October 30, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted October 30, 2020 8 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said: Call it 1% for the sake of argument. Testing capacity of say 400k tests per day. If full testing capacity is taken daily for a week we have a situation where we could have anywhere up to 100k people a week with false positives and contacts self isolating because of a testing system that isn’t fit for purpose. Absolutely huge financial hit on individuals and businesses for nothing False positives (and more so negatives) are indeed an issue - but is easily remedied by a second test in the the case of a positive. Also the false positive issues only become a significant problem (yes but not to the individual concerned) when the number of true cases is very low as in the summer just past - but not when its several or even tens of a percent. A good idea of the upper bound on the number of 'false positives' may be the null point last July in CV confirmed cases - was it only a couple of hundred? They weren't all false ! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted October 30, 2020 https://mobile.twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1322294013127516161 strap in guys... month long lockdown imminent... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted October 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said: They are being recorded as dying of Covid. There's a lot of face-saving going on. Erh - TRF Daily Mail link nails that one dead. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8875201/Has-Covid-killed-flu.html In short its easy to tell if it' flu or CV19. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,190 Posted October 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, sonyc said: It's at odds with quite a few posters' views here. Such a dichotomy of views! And most well argued and with conviction. Still confused though at the number of deaths they predict. With treatments you would think it comes down, especially as it’s avoided care homes. I can fully understand the hospital bit as you can get as many extra beds as you want, but if you haven’t got the staff, ( hence the lockdown ) and I also get how other things suffer like cancer treatments if the staff have to get moved ( which they have planned for and won’t happen ), but I thought deaths would max out at about 250 ie 75 % now cured. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted October 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said: Call it 1% for the sake of argument. Testing capacity of say 400k tests per day. If full testing capacity is taken daily for a week we have a situation where we could have anywhere up to 100k people a week with false positives and contacts self isolating because of a testing system that isn’t fit for purpose. Absolutely huge financial hit on individuals and businesses for nothing explain then, how they tested 208k people over summer on the ONS survey and only 159 tests came back positive... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted October 30, 2020 All this talk of flu being "dead", its not even winter yet... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Well b back 3,190 Posted October 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said: https://mobile.twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1322294013127516161 strap in guys... month long lockdown imminent... If indeed true, had he listened to SAGE based on Soyncs ind sage video would have been only 2 weeks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 30, 2020 1 hour ago, sonyc said: Did you see the video (first 20) and if so, any thoughts/reactions to the content? We could well be looking at something worse than earlier in the year, the rate of growth is astonishing once it gets hold. The ONS survey was very grim reading today. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,492 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Van wink said: We could well be looking at something worse than earlier in the year, the rate of growth is astonishing once it gets hold. The ONS survey was very grim reading today. I am absolutely amazed (gobsmacked) to just see and read so many different perspectives. It's why I've gravitated to Zoe and Indy Sage. The scientist delivering that video even sounded upset a one very brief moment, almost a plea in her voice. She feels that between 2 to 3 weeks we will be back to April's figures in hospital. Plus the spread of it is moving faster than their worst scenarios. On Zoe figures where I am around 1 in 19 to 1 in 20 is active with symptoms ....edit...my maths! 2% only not 5% Edited October 30, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted October 30, 2020 Seems like most of the papers think well ALL be in lockdown (aka Tier 4) in a week. Sounds like a govt. official leak. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,492 Posted October 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: Seems like most of the papers think well ALL be in lockdown (aka Tier 4) in a week. Sounds like a govt. official leak. It feels as if it was obvious it was going this way probably 2/3 weeks ago? You called it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 814 Posted October 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, sonyc said: It feels as if it was obvious it was going this way probably 2/3 weeks ago? You called it. Id there is a full lockdown it will be to allow us to open up in the run up to Christmas Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,492 Posted October 30, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said: Id there is a full lockdown it will be to allow us to open up in the run up to Christmas Agreed. But it will have to be longer than 2 weeks according to latest reports (TJs Times link) Ideally should Johnson have simply have followed Starmer's request? If he had, the two parties could have coalesced around the issue, but he rubbished the idea. Ps. Saving Xmas might play well with the government Edited October 30, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 30, 2020 Too late for so many...... shocking governance. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted October 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, sonyc said: I am absolutely amazed (gobsmacked) to just see and read so many different perspectives. It's why I've gravitated to Zoe and Indy Sage. The scientist delivering that video even sounded upset a one very brief moment, almost a plea in her voice. She feels that between 2 to 3 weeks we will be back to April's figures in hospital. Plus the spread of it is moving faster than their worst scenarios. On Zoe figures where I am around 1 in 19 to 1 in 20 is active with symptoms ....edit...my maths! 2% only not 5% ONS is the most accurate data we get but Zoe I believe is the most up to date. Fascinating stuff. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted October 30, 2020 11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said: Id there is a full lockdown it will be to allow us to open up in the run up to Christmas Anybody with a scientific background and no agenda could of predicted this. Very very many did. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
