Corona Virus main thread

[ricardo 7,348]

 

I wonder how this will compare with reality in a few months time.

[BigFish 1,986]

51 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

We won't have control back.

No one in Europe has control, not even Germany, no one in the Americas has control either. Only in Asia is it under  control.

This will continue to spread until there is a vaccine or the majority of the population has recovered.

A second lockdown will be to level off hospital entries and to save Christmas. 

If we did it earlier we'd be doing it again earlier, lockdowns don't  stop this and they don't give control, they delay progression and they smooth peaks.   

Lockdowns buy time & reduce the chances of being overwhelmed. A sensible approach would be to use this time to get the country's act together. Taiwan hasn't had a case now for 200 days despite being closer to the epicentre.

The country would have been in a much better place now if Johnson had followed Starmer's suggestion for a short sharpe circuit breaker starting at half term. Then used that time to reset the track & trace system.

Evidence is that Sunak's eat out to help out scheme and opening the holiday industry were major factors in increasing infections. Much of this rise is down to government policy.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

Announcement expected soon today now

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

[Herman 9,717]

3 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Announcement expected soon today now

Which one is anyone's guess?

[Herman 9,717]

Why is it only Mike Yeadon? A million saying one thing, one saying t'other.

 

...and if you want to get angry with something that deserves to get angry about....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8898907/Dossier-reveals-ministers-UNDERBOUGHT-threw-6-75billion-protective-clothing.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

Edited October 31, 2020 by Herman

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

14 minutes ago, Herman said:

Which one is anyone's guess?

Cabinet meeting this afternoon then announcing mass unemployment, total destruction of the economy and an unprecedented mental health crisis, culminating in a rising suicide numbers amongst the young soon afterward 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[Well b back 3,190]

2 hours ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

It isn’t easily remedied by a second test. The person in question and all their contacts still have to self isolate for 14 days from the original positive test and original contact date, irrelevant if the second test comes back as negative 

2/3 to 3/4 of people that have it are not tested. If we would have all obeyed the rules 100 % we would probably not be in this position, one of those examples being people not isolating as they were told 93% of positives were not really positive.

Europe ( the west ) dropped its guard, shops started letting large numbers in and ignored non mask wearers and some pubs ( not all ) allowed rules to be broken.

This won’t be like last time the economy in the main will be kept going, as I guess will schools, it’s our hospitals that have to be protected. Some people were telling us the figures being given to the government were incorrect, well at least I think we can all agree on that we all got it wrong they were 4 X worse. 
I didn’t want or need a lockdown I have stated it wouldn’t happen, but again we ignored the science and finish up in a mess. I lost my job first time round, started a new company which won’t be able to get support as it is so new, but that’s life, let’s pray the vaccine can be here by December and the vulnerable can be vaccinated or we will simply return to this in January.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

5 minutes ago, Well b back said:

2/3 to 3/4 of people that have it are not tested. If we would have all obeyed the rules 100 % we would probably not be in this position, one of those examples being people not isolating as they were told 93% of positives were not really positive.

Europe ( the west ) dropped its guard, shops started letting large numbers in and ignored non mask wearers and some pubs ( not all ) allowed rules to be broken.

This won’t be like last time the economy in the main will be kept going, as I guess will schools, it’s our hospitals that have to be protected. Some people were telling us the figures being given to the government were incorrect, well at least I think we can all agree on that we all got it wrong they were 4 X worse. 
I didn’t want or need a lockdown I have stated it wouldn’t happen, but again we ignored the science and finish up in a mess. I lost my job first time round, started a new company which won’t be able to get support as it is so new, but that’s life, let’s pray the vaccine can be here by December and the vulnerable can be vaccinated or we will simply return to this in January.

None of that was the point I was making about the absurd rules that if a positive is then tested as a false positive they still have to self isolate for 14 days, as do their contacts. It’s an absolutely absurd rule that causes more economic and mental damage for no reason 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[The Real Buh 3,423]

6 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Cabinet meeting this afternoon and announcing mass unemployment, total destruction of the economy and a unprecedented mental health crisis, culminating in a rising suicide numbers amongst the young soon afterward 

Don’t forget massive underdiagnosis of deadly conditions like cancer.

[Herman 9,717]

It was Gove wasn't it?

 

[Barbe bleu 816]

12 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Lockdowns buy time & reduce the chances of being overwhelmed. A sensible approach would be to use this time to get the country's act together. Taiwan hasn't had a case now for 200 days despite being closer to the epicentre.

The country would have been in a much better place now if Johnson had followed Starmer's suggestion for a short sharpe circuit breaker starting at half term. Then used that time to reset the track & trace system.

Evidence is that Sunak's eat out to help out scheme and opening the holiday industry were major factors in increasing infections. Much of this rise is down to government policy.

We dont know what effect of a half term circuit breaker would have been but I am certain that the disease would have made up for it in no time at all.

 

To me the relative success of this measure will be: did hospitals get overrun and did we enjoy Christmas.

With the vaccine seemingly getting ever further away lockdown as a means of hiding until it is ready is an ever more remote possibility (and I had much confidence a couple of months ago)

This virus goes out the window one of three ways.  1) every single case anywhere in the world is eliminated 2) we get herd immunity naturally 3) the same is achieved by vaccine

Which of these does a lockdown help is achieve? If thenanswer is none all it does is delay and suppress.  Fine if there is a particular goal in mind otherwise is there any point in it?

 

[Well b back 3,190]

3 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Cabinet meeting this afternoon and announcing mass unemployment, total destruction of the economy and a unprecedented mental health crisis, culminating in a rising suicide numbers amongst the young soon afterward 

Should have been 6 weeks ago, blame Boris and the people who must have advised him to ignore the science. This will shelter you from Norfolk from getting this deadly disease.

The hospitals have beds but enough staff. 

[Well b back 3,190]

3 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Don’t forget massive underdiagnosis of deadly conditions like cancer.

To be fair I think you will find that a lot of the reasoning is to ensure that doesn’t happen.

[The Real Buh 3,423]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

To be fair I think you will find that a lot of the reasoning is to ensure that doesn’t happen.

It’s already happened, genius.

[Well b back 3,190]

4 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

None of that was the point I was making about the absurd rules that if a positive is then tested as a false positive they still have to self isolate for 14 days, as do their contacts. It’s an absolutely absurd rule that causes more economic and mental damage for no reason 

But got us into the situation it seems. We were all to blame, I am very strict on the rules but I have broken them. Positives going into a pub as that snippet shew the other day would infect 4 - 5. This is now political suicide surely Boris can’t survive this, or maybe he can as he will blame the North for you suffering down South.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

9 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Don’t forget massive underdiagnosis of deadly conditions like cancer.

We’ve been assured that won’t happen this time but then again we were also told 8 months ago it was two weeks to flatten the curve so we’’ll see

[Well b back 3,190]

4 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

It’s already happened, genius.

It happened in March that is not correct anymore as the only appointments missed were people not turning up. The NHS learnt from the lessons and the hospitals themselves and areas for screening are Covid secure areas. It’s the staffing as more staff are moved to Covid wards to deal with the numbers then there would be less staff elsewhere. That according to the NHS figures on here the other day was yet to happen. Of course non urgent ops and procedures have suffered.

[Well b back 3,190]

17 minutes ago, Herman said:

It was Gove wasn't it?

 

At least he will be able to use that to deflect attention from what clearly should have happened 6 weeks ago.

[Well b back 3,190]

10 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

We’ve been assured that won’t happen this time but then again we were also told 8 months ago it was two weeks to flatten the curve so we’’ll see

We all got things wrong but those that learnt need to come out with credit. 
The NHS are protecting everyone and want to carry on doing so.

[The Real Buh 3,423]

7 minutes ago, Well b back said:

It happened in March that is not correct anymore as the only appointments missed were people not turning up. The NHS learnt from the lessons and the hospitals themselves and areas for screening are Covid secure areas. It’s the staffing as more staff are moved to Covid wards to deal with the numbers then there would be less staff elsewhere. That according to the NHS figures on here the other day was yet to happen. Of course non urgent ops and procedures have suffered.

The NHS is not doing anywhere near the non-covid activities it should be post lockdown. This is leading to undiagnosed conditions. There’s also a massive backlog. 

[Well b back 3,190]

Just now, The Real Buh said:

The NHS is not doing anywhere near the non-covid activities it should be post lockdown. This is leading to undiagnosed conditions. There’s also a massive backlog. 

I agree, but this is non emergency procedures, the rest they kept going. They have not got enough staff 2 years ago would we have paid the extra tax as the Lib Dem’s wanted to protect the NHS, the verdict was no. The Nightigales are opening for non Covid and screening. Not sure what else they can do, people would not have turned up for their appointments as they were scared of Covid, wether we locked down or not, in fact with no facts I would assume people feel safer attending whilst there is a lockdown.

We are not running out of beds, we are running out of staff.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

I know it’s the sun but I’m in complete agreement with it, also what’s to say come January or February we’re not facing lockdown number 3? 
 

 

[sonyc 5,492]

6 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

I know it’s the sun but I’m in complete agreement with it, also what’s to say come January or February we’re not facing lockdown number 3? 
 

 

What do you think is the alternative given you are arguing against the advice of Sage?

[sonyc 5,492]

3 hours ago, The Real Buh said:

We are heading for a serious crisis of liberty as a result of this.

your children, your grandchildren, will live in a much less free world

the virus is bad, it’s very bad, but the exit out of this can only result in mass tyranny 

long term, possibly civil war, we’ll see. The seeds are being sown.

Well, not from the serious crisis of liberty to hear from you Buh. Not everything will be lost.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

What do you think is the alternative given you are arguing against the advice of Sage?

Open up the nightingale hospitals for covid only patients, they were completely unused in the first ‘wave’, if necessary open more. Keep the economy open and learn to live with the virus, we have all our eggs in one basket waiting for a vaccine that might never actually come or if it does may not work as desired, if that’s the case then we have no option but to live with it. And perhaps it’s time we had a grown up conversation about death, when people reach their elder years there are many things that will result in their deaths and  as heartless as that may sound it’s reality, life is a terminal disease and none of us are getting off this planet alive 

 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[Herman 9,717]

As WBB keeps having to repeat we haven't the staff to open up all the new hospitals. We were down thousands before covid and now.... 

[sonyc 5,492]

1 minute ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

Open up the nightingale hospitals for covid only patients, they were completely unused in the first ‘wave’, if necessary open more. Keep the economy open and learn to live with the virus, we have all our eggs in one basket waiting for a vaccine that might never actually come or if it does may not work as desired, if that’s the case then we have no option but to live with it. And perhaps it’s time we had a grown up conversation about death, when people reach the elder years there are many things that will result in their deaths as heartless as that may sound it’s reality, life is a terminal disease and none of us are getting of this planet alive 

 

 

 

Fair enough. Thanks for the reply. I don't disagree with your points about talking about death and mental health etc but I am focussing on practicalities.

Presumably, the main worry is that the NHS isn't as resilient to a massive influx of people? For all treatments. Hence the modelling has guided. What might you do as a leader if NHS hospitals were urging help or turning people away? As leader, you'd be responsible because it's the nation's health service.

Also, where would the staff come from do you reckon?

 

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Fair enough. Thanks for the reply. I don't disagree with your points about talking about death and mental health etc but I am focussing on practicalities.

Presumably, the main worry is that the NHS isn't as resilient to a massive influx of people? For all treatments. Hence the modelling has guided. What might you do as a leader if NHS hospitals were urging help or turning people away? As leader, you'd be responsible because it's the nation's health service.

Also, where would the staff come from do you reckon?

 

What happened to the thousands of staff that they got out of retirement for the first wave? 

[Indy 3,286]

The biggest problem with a second lockdown is going to be policing it! As shown the majority of the population does do as required but a big minority partying in the street and flouting rules won’t stop just because pubs are closed, it’ll just drive them to house parties and other illegal gatherings.

Any break is only designed to flatten the curve and pressure on the NHS.

I don’t think there’s a right or wrong way to tackle this second wave, we knew it was coming.

Fast tracking the vaccine to the vulnerable is the only way to stop this potential disaster for the economy, other deaths from pressure of mental health, cancer and more. It’s a no win situation.