Corona Virus main thread

[A Load of Squit 5,172]

4 minutes ago, Crafty Canary said:

He didn’t march to Durham, he drove thereby not potentially infecting hundreds unlike virtue signalling Gardner. He wasn’t inspecting anything instead he was self-isolating there. Also the angst against Cummings was monstrous compared to Gardner. It is you that doesn’t read posts clearly probably due to the red mist that seems to affect you on a regular basis.

Cummings made the rules and broke them, his actions and lack of consequence mean that the rules are being flouted and no-one expects to be held to account for thier actions.

 

[Mr Apples 1,320]

I wonder, has Crafty banned to colour red from his house? 🤔🤣

Apples

[A Load of Squit 5,172]

4 minutes ago, Mr Apples said:

I wonder, has Crafty banned to colour red from his house? 🤔🤣

Apples

He's got all his furniture on the right side of every room.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

New cases dropped from over 8000 per day to around 5600 a day in England. Good news but still far to high. I still take the view that with these numbers lockdown has been released to soon but recognise the mitigation around outdoor exposure, social distance and risk. 

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

I will say it again as far too many on here see it as a left/right issue. It's not. It's about integrity and competence.

For the record I'm fairly central - I agree and still do with a poll tax (if you want to vote you need to contribute at least a little) so I'm a righty. We all have a responsibility to earn/work our way in the world if we can. No 'free' handouts or benefit 'cheats'. 

Then again I agree with social justice and helping those that need help. We can all fall on hard times. Lefty

However.

I can never ever vote for those that lie, dissemble and cheat. That (used) to make me British. A man of my word - not that any of us can't make mistakes.

Now remind me why I could never ever see myself voting for Johnson ?

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

New cases dropped from over 8000 per day to around 5600 a day in England. Good news but still far to high. I still take the view that with these numbers lockdown has been released to soon but recognise the mitigation around outdoor exposure, social distance and risk. 

Yes political not scientific decision. Government just accepting that it's lost (threw away) its authority/leadership and bowing to the inevitable relaxations.  That and it can't be seen to be 'behind' our European friends due to incompetence.

[Van wink 2,994]

20 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes political not scientific decision. Government just accepting that it's lost (threw away) its authority/leadership and bowing to the inevitable relaxations.  That and it can't be seen to be 'behind' our European friends due to incompetence.

Definitely political, based on or justified by the chosen evidence,  always will be when it comes to these decisions. Time will tell if they made the right call. Initially from the data I posted seems to be the right call but to early to really tell and I still have grave doubts. 

[Mark .Y. 352]

33 minutes ago, Van wink said:

New cases dropped from over 8000 per day to around 5600 a day in England. Good news but still far to high. I still take the view that with these numbers lockdown has been released to soon but recognise the mitigation around outdoor exposure, social distance and risk. 

I actually disagree.

I think some other countries were relaxing restrictions when their recorded cases were well over 1,000 as ours are at the moment. Presumably, they would have had a similar ratio of recorded cases/unknown cases as ourselves. I don't think there is any reason to believe they would be different ???

Separate point, but one thing I have noticed is that how long the "tail" of cases/deaths is in Italy, compared to in Spain. Not sure if it is a reporting thing (ie some of the reported deaths in Italy actually happened some time ago) or what, but there does seem to be a clear difference.  

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

I actually disagree.

I think some other countries were relaxing restrictions when their recorded cases were well over 1,000 as ours are at the moment. Presumably, they would have had a similar ratio of recorded cases/unknown cases as ourselves. I don't think there is any reason to believe they would be different ???

Separate point, but one thing I have noticed is that how long the "tail" of cases/deaths is in Italy, compared to in Spain. Not sure if it is a reporting thing (ie some of the reported deaths in Italy actually happened some time ago) or what, but there does seem to be a clear difference.  

 

It’s all about opinions Mark, no exact science n any of this. The data so far supports your view

[Barbe bleu 827]

21 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I actually disagree.

I think some other countries were relaxing restrictions when their recorded cases were well over 1,000 as ours are at the moment. Presumably, they would have had a similar ratio of recorded cases/unknown cases as ourselves. I don't think there is any reason to believe they would be different ???

Separate point, but one thing I have noticed is that how long the "tail" of cases/deaths is in Italy, compared to in Spain. Not sure if it is a reporting thing (ie some of the reported deaths in Italy actually happened some time ago) or what, but there does seem to be a clear difference.  

 

Yes, i saw that. As I think Herman said we continue to follow Italy ( i checked a couple of days ago and saw our death rate was still pretty much what theres was two weeks ago)

Why spain had a straight up and down (later peaking than italy and earlier and abruptly to near zero) is an interesting one that doesnt march easily.with anywhere else.from what i can tell. France might be closer to Spain but their counting system has changed i think

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

34 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Definitely political, based on or justified by the chosen evidence,  always will be when it comes to these decisions. Time will tell if they made the right call. Initially from the data I posted seems to be the right call but to early to really tell and I still have grave doubts. 

The problem is not the new 'rules' but enforcement - people are now going much further, making their own decisions - give an inch take a mile etc.

The Durdle Door images prove that. If only he'd asserted his authority, made an example over Cummings we'd of all understood they remained serious about lockdown, rules and restrictions.

Johnson's largely lost any practical control - just now manages to inconvenience largely retail business.

Even the likes of BA (IAG) can't be bothered to talk to the government anymore! Such is the loss of faith.

Sadly I suspect we will see several quite serious local flare-ups now - give it a couple of weeks for the virus to progress.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

I'll throw this up here as it was topic of conversation a few weeks ago - Poor Swedes. Last I saw they were not falling either very qucikly -  if at all.

 

Sky News: Coronavirus infection rate in UK second highest of any major European country

Analysis by Sky News suggests cases in the UK are taking longer to fall than Spain, Italy, France and Belgium, reports the broadcaster.

It reports:

Only Sweden, which decided not to impose a lockdown, has a higher rate of infection.

Edited June 5, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

19 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'll throw this up here as it was topic of conversation a few weeks ago - Poor Swedes. Last I saw they were not falling either very qucikly -  if at all.

 

Sky News: Coronavirus infection rate in UK second highest of any major European country

Analysis by Sky News suggests cases in the UK are taking longer to fall than Spain, Italy, France and Belgium, reports the broadcaster.

It reports:

Only Sweden, which decided not to impose a lockdown, has a higher rate of infection.

What are comparative figures?

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

What are comparative figures?

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-infection-rate-is-second-highest-of-any-major-european-country-12000623

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Yep. Remind me,  Nelson Mandela was famous for not trying to reconcile with the previous administration seeing instead that violent struggle was the best means of achieving his purpose?  

And when in power he immediately set aside the economic liberalism of previous regimes for his own form of socialism and made sure that S Africa could never be described as a Rainbow Nation?

Or am I thinking of someone and somewhere else?  Hang on, consensus building is a good thing maybe....

Good of you to forget everything previous to his release from prison. But you are selective in what you post.

[A Load of Squit 5,172]

That 'drawing a line under it, lets move on' is going well.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-die-in-outside-dominic-cummings-house-over-covid-19-response-12000769

Obviously just a bunch of lefties with nothing better to do. 😀

 

[Mark .Y. 352]

35 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'll throw this up here as it was topic of conversation a few weeks ago - Poor Swedes. Last I saw they were not falling either very qucikly -  if at all.

 

Sky News: Coronavirus infection rate in UK second highest of any major European country

Analysis by Sky News suggests cases in the UK are taking longer to fall than Spain, Italy, France and Belgium, reports the broadcaster.

It reports:

Only Sweden, which decided not to impose a lockdown, has a higher rate of infection.

I hadn't seen that YF but as I read it (tell me if I've got it wrong), the figures exactly represent each country's rate during the last week in May, but it is pretty well recognised that we are maybe three weeks behind the likes of Italy and Spain so wouldn't our figures for a couple of weeks into the future, maybe the week beginning Monday 15th June be more comparable ??    

[Barbe bleu 827]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Yep. Remind me,  Nelson Mandela was famous for not trying to reconcile with the previous administration seeing instead that violent struggle was the best means of achieving his purpose?  

And when in power he immediately set aside the economic liberalism of previous regimes for his own form of socialism and made sure that S Africa could never be described as a Rainbow Nation?

Or am I thinking of someone and somewhere else?  Hang on, consensus building is a good thing maybe....

Good of you to forget everything previous to his release from prison. But you are selective in what you post.

I couldnt forget it, I wasnt born! it does seem to me that reconciliation was key to South Africa's path. You may have a different view but maybe this is for another day

I do think that consensus building, mutual respect and meeting  each other half way where possible is usually the best approach but I am sure that there will have been times when shouting, finger pointing and generally looking to humiliate one another have worked. 

[Crafty Canary 497]

3 hours ago, Mr Apples said:

I wonder, has Crafty banned to colour red from his house? 🤔🤣

Apples

No, red flora are welcome and red in pictures, book covers etc. I also have red chinos and shorts. 👍👍

[TIL 1010 4,752]

[Herman 9,780]

Being neither black nor a scientist I am not an expert on racism or viruses but I do know the difference between right and wrong and when gross incompetence is in action. 

[sonyc 5,529]

So, our numbers of new cases (and therefore number of deaths) are not reducing sharply as lockdown is being eased. Yet, Iran appears on the face of it to be experiencing a second wave of infection (they eased about 3 / 4 weeks ago I believe) and nowhere else is showing such an increase in numbers after relaxation of measures. Does anyone understand what might be behind Iran's experience or heard any news?

Edited June 5, 2020 by sonyc

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-uk-infection-rate-is-second-highest-of-any-major-european-country-12000623

This is a frustrating story because it is talking purely about the number of confirmed cases, but that is heavily dependant on how much testing you're doing and in the UK the number of tests was increasing (finally) during May.  It doesn't say whether or not France, Italy, Spain have been increasing their levels of testing at a similar rate to the UK or not - I'm genuinely interested to know the answer.   If you test a lot more, you'll find a lot more cases.

 

Hence the significance of the 5,600 number VW has cited above - this is the projection for the total number of infections daily in the UK based on the random sampling exercise that has been done by the ONS and it gives us a realistic number for the level of the infection across the country.  You'd need similar random sampling for Spain/France/Italy to be able to compare their infection rates to the UK.  If anyone knows about that, I'd love to hear it !  It would have been nice if the sky journo who did the story had asked the question....

 

Anyway, I am concerned about the relaxation of lockdown currently, but I think at this level of new infections, current steps are justified.  The vital thing is to keep monitoring it to decide whether further relaxations are ok.

[Van wink 2,994]

28 minutes ago, sonyc said:

So, our numbers of new cases (and therefore number of deaths) are not reducing sharply as lockdown is being eased. Yet, Iran appears on the face of it to be experiencing a second wave of infection (they eased about 3 / 4 weeks ago I believe) and nowhere else is showing such an increase in numbers after relaxation of measures. Does anyone understand what might be behind Iran's experience or heard any news?

The number of new infections has dropped from over 8000 to 5500 per day in around a week sonyc, I dont follow your first sentence.

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

21 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

This is a frustrating story because it is talking purely about the number of confirmed cases, but that is heavily dependant on how much testing you're doing and in the UK the number of tests was increasing (finally) during May.  It doesn't say whether or not France, Italy, Spain have been increasing their levels of testing at a similar rate to the UK or not - I'm genuinely interested to know the answer.   If you test a lot more, you'll find a lot more cases.

 

Hence the significance of the 5,600 number VW has cited above - this is the projection for the total number of infections daily in the UK based on the random sampling exercise that has been done by the ONS and it gives us a realistic number for the level of the infection across the country.  You'd need similar random sampling for Spain/France/Italy to be able to compare their infection rates to the UK.  If anyone knows about that, I'd love to hear it !  It would have been nice if the sky journo who did the story had asked the question....

 

Anyway, I am concerned about the relaxation of lockdown currently, but I think at this level of new infections, current steps are justified.  The vital thing is to keep monitoring it to decide whether further relaxations are ok.

Although the case-rate in Sweden is the highest its death rate is below that of the UK, Italy or Spain, although now above France's. As others have said no two countries are alike, so comparisons cannot be exact, and if there is at least one more wave that might validate or invalidate different approaches. One point I have noticed is that there seems to be more honesty from the Swedish officials and politicians about where their strategy might have been flawed than from the officials and politicians of one or two other countries.

[sonyc 5,529]

26 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The number of new infections has dropped from over 8000 to 5500 per day in around a week sonyc, I dont follow your first sentence.

Just the fall off is so slow VW (meaning the associated number of deaths daily is slow to reduce....in my eyes). My main question though related to Iran and a seeming 'second wave' after a relaxation of lockdown. Their numbers of new cases also seemed quite high (today ours was reported at over 1500 ...government's figures) as they approached lockdown. I see reports but yet to see potential reasons.

I wasn't making a political point in the daily UK numbers VW simply using where we are now to where Iran used to be and trying to compare.

 

Ps. In other news vitamin looks  a promising link to survival rates.

Edited June 5, 2020 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Just the fall off is so slow VW (meaning the associated number of deaths daily is slow to reduce....in my eyes). My main question though related to Iran and a seeming 'second wave' after a relaxation of lockdown. Their numbers of new cases also seemed quite high (today ours was reported at over 1500 ...government's figures) as they approached lockdown. I see reports but yet to see potential reasons.

I wasn't making a political point in the daily UK numbers VW simply using where we are now to where Iran used to be and trying to compare.

 

Ps. In other news vitamin looks  a promising link to survival rates.

Which vitamin, I've been taking vitamin D now for weeks.

More of a concern for bald men, particularly bald fat men I suggest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/bald-men-higher-risk-severe-case-covid-19-research-finds/

[Mark .Y. 352]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Just the fall off is so slow VW (meaning the associated number of deaths daily is slow to reduce....in my eyes). My main question though related to Iran and a seeming 'second wave' after a relaxation of lockdown. Their numbers of new cases also seemed quite high (today ours was reported at over 1500 ...government's figures) as they approached lockdown. I see reports but yet to see potential reasons.

I wasn't making a political point in the daily UK numbers VW simply using where we are now to where Iran used to be and trying to compare.

Sheer speculation sonyc but I would imagine virtually the whole medical structure in Iran would be in tatters after so much warfare.

That leads me to think that the authorities there probably had very little idea of the number of infections, and even deaths, over the last few weeks. That then leads me to believe that they probably had no idea when the number of cases peaked, or even if it had. So maybe they eased their restrictions on the "upward" leg of the curve.

I have no evidence of that, just a supposition.

[sonyc 5,529]

1 minute ago, Van wink said:

Which vitamin, I've been taking vitamin D now for weeks.

More of a concern for bald men, particularly bald fat men I suggest

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/bald-men-higher-risk-severe-case-covid-19-research-finds/

Vitamin K found in some cheeses could help fight Covid-19, study suggests

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/05/vitamin-k-could-help-fight-coronavirus-study-suggests

Sorry my edits (I use my mobile) must have deleted the K!

[sonyc 5,529]

2 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Sheer speculation sonyc but I would imagine virtually the whole medical structure in Iran would be in tatters after so much warfare.

That leads me to think that the authorities there probably had very little idea of the number of infections, and even deaths, over the last few weeks. That then leads me to believe that they probably had no idea when the number of cases peaked, or even if it had. So maybe they eased their restrictions on the "upward" leg of the curve.

I have no evidence of that, just a supposition.

It just seems an outlier. Other countries also have chaotic health systems. It's curious.