Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: For - me get the 100K/day testing in place plus track and chase (and isolate)! If mid-May the numbers are clearly say at least 1/2 of what they are now and declining allow shops to open (with social distancing). See what happens. Schools after the summer 1/2 term break. Pubs, clubs , restaurants, sports events - in fact anywhere where you sit and meet others across a small table or bar for tens of minutes - I guess 2021 when we have a vaccine or effectively risk is nil. Yep as stated before, traditional Public Health, test and contact trace. What happens if the numbers dont drop though, where do we draw the line, is it people or economy? Edited April 19, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted April 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: No. I expect our leaders to always act on the best scientific and expert advice. That this government feels the need to wheel out everyday the CMO or PHE to qualify its political decisions (or to act as patsy) simply show it's true weakness on all things scientific or factual and that can't be 'spun'. In short they had no credibility themselves so needed to in effect to trade on CMO's credibility. Why do they have zero credibility on factual matters - their fantasy Brexity history. Nobody seriously believes them. Without a doubt, I'm sure a range of scientific options where given to Johnson in January and he and his government decided on a particular route adding in both political and economic considerations. They need to own it. By all means question the experts separately - but it is the government who decides. In many ways the virus actually gave Johnson and his government an excellent opportunity to prove to me and all doubters wrong and that they were indeed competent - but this weeks unravelling of PPE, testing fiasco, spiralling care home deaths (+6000 ) on top of the original dithering and delay has rather undermined that. In the 'premier league' of European coronavirus deaths and responses we look a dead cert for relegation despite being well placed and having had an easy start. That would and should usually mean a manger and his coaching staff get sacked. We need this government to get a grip - 100,000 tests a day in weeks time as promised or else they should make way for somebody who can 'manage'. Agreed we need a government selected based on ability rather than political ideology unless people think nationalism more important than lives. That the advisors were thinking of quitting and Fergisons comments about the government are damming and then they tried to do a hatchet job on him In the spectator are all out of the Trump playbook. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 1 minute ago, T said: Agreed we need a government selected based on ability rather than political ideology Who will select them? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 837 Posted April 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, Van wink said: Van Wink Feb 1 "Its very serious, such a long potentially symptomless infective period makes contact tracing very difficult and gives this nasty virus a great chance to spread Thankyou Fair is fair you were calling it large very early Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,444 Posted April 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, Herman said: Me.😀 Thats me for the Gulag then😀 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted April 19, 2020 It is Boris‘s job to select the cabinet as I understand it. They were selected for another purpose which I personally don’t think is the priority now. That is for another time when this is sorted in my view. I understand he was fine as Mayor at putting a team together just don’t expect him to read or understand the detail. Germany and S Korea shows that test trace isolate does work. Merkel made clear as testing tracing and isolating go up then restrictions will go down and she is in a different league to Trump and Boris as she is a person of substance rather a nationalist mouthpiece. I for one am signing up to the apps. A lot more people share a lot more data on google, Amazon, Facebook,Instagram and LinkedIn etc. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,444 Posted April 19, 2020 Fun and games in Yankee land Maryn McKenna ✔ @marynmck The chief executive of a MA hospital, outbid for PPE by the feds multiple times, cut a deal, paid extra, hired the trucks — and then was interrogated by the FBI and had to get his Congressperson to intervene to keep DHS from heisting the shipment.https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2010025 … 22.3K 4:51 PM - Apr 18, 2020 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,848 Posted April 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, Van wink said: Yep as stated before, traditional Public Health, test and contact trace. What happens if the numbers dont drop though, where do we draw the line, is it people or economy? We have to and will get it under control. Other countries show it can be done. No let up until we do. Once it is under control then we have to start to slowly open up. I do mean slowly. Us oldies will have to accept our young, free, and reckless days are well and truly over. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,444 Posted April 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: Us oldies will have to accept our young, free, and reckless days are well and truly over. Speak for yourself, I'm on my bike as soon as restrictions are lifted. Thats if the tires haven't perished and the chain rusted away.🚴♀️ 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 23 minutes ago, Herman said: Me.😀 Would you be an independent arbitrator? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,848 Posted April 19, 2020 6 minutes ago, ricardo said: Speak for yourself, I'm on my bike as soon as restrictions are lifted. Thats if the tires haven't perished and the chain rusted away.🚴♀️ Just watching the end of Grease on TV. I'm sure ONJ reminded me of my wife.... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rock The Boat 1,332 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said: For - me get the 100K/day testing in place plus track and chase (and isolate)! If mid-May the numbers are clearly say at least 1/2 of what they are now and declining allow shops to open (with social distancing). See what happens. Schools after the summer 1/2 term break. Pubs, clubs , restaurants, sports events - in fact anywhere where you sit and meet others across a small table or bar for tens of minutes - I guess 2021 when we have a vaccine or effectively risk is nil. Wow! What pubs and restaurants do you think can survive a nine-month closure? What will happen to all the staff in the meantime? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,848 Posted April 19, 2020 29 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said: Wow! What pubs and restaurants do you think can survive a nine-month closure? What will happen to all the staff in the meantime? None and they won't. Only people who would go to such will need to prove some sort of immunity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,541 Posted April 19, 2020 NEW: Sun 19 April update of coronavirus trajectories Daily deaths • Still too early to say if US & UK peaked • Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early; gentle slopes • Notable emerging market countries in green Live charts https://t.co/JxVd2cG7KI https://t.co/U1H5Gub1JJ Still too early to suggest UK at peak Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, sonyc said: NEW: Sun 19 April update of coronavirus trajectories Daily deaths • Still too early to say if US & UK peaked • Successes in dark blue: Australia, Norway, Austria locked down early; gentle slopes • Notable emerging market countries in green Live charts https://t.co/JxVd2cG7KI https://t.co/U1H5Gub1JJ Still too early to suggest UK at peak At peak of what sonyc, the number of daily infections is the important stat, and we don’t have any figures for that. In the absence of that data I guess we look at daily admissions, I’ve not seen anything on that either. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,541 Posted April 19, 2020 Peak deaths daily VW (the first link takes you to a whole range of FT graphs with summaries) and the second link to his Twitter feed (updated each evening). The daily infections graphs are included in the FT first link. I am signing off now as 404 Not Found is doing my head in. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 Well I can’t see much of that but on the face if it some good news https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/18/sunlight-high-temperatures-helpstop-spread-coronavirus-hard/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AvL0JrRclvpF Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 837 Posted April 19, 2020 2 minutes ago, Van wink said: At peak of what sonyc, the number of daily infections is the important stat, and we don’t have any figures for that. In the absence of that data I guess we look at daily admissions, I’ve not seen anything on that either. We have details of confirmed cases and deaths by date of death/test . Peak seems to have been 1-8 April if these are to believed. https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/ https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Not much lag between peak cases and peak deaths. Is it possible that this has been around at high levels earlier than anyone realises? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) We had the case for the prosecution which clearly hit a nerve and the case for the defence has now been pleaded. https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/ Edited April 19, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 837 Posted April 19, 2020 40 minutes ago, Van wink said: Well I can’t see much of that but on the face if it some good news https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/18/sunlight-high-temperatures-helpstop-spread-coronavirus-hard/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_AvL0JrRclvpF I thought that it was generally assumed that there was some seasonal element to this, cold and wet being the preference? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Creative Midfielder 2,004 Posted April 19, 2020 6 hours ago, ricardo said: No doubting that huge errors have been made and even more will be revealed thanks to 20/20 hindsight. Did you expect any different. Well there you go @ricardo, @Indy et al who have naively swallowed the government's line about following the science\experts advice - don't know if you heard the interview with Sir David King, former Chief Scientific Officer and far and away the best one this country has ever had. He just diplomatically but comprehensively demolished the notion that the government had followed the best advice and totally dismissed any notion of hindsight - just calmly and objectively stated what was known when and how the UK had failed to act consonant with expert advice, both this year in direct response to this crisis and in general how the planning and capability that he had put in place had been dismantled under the pressure of austerity plus the conclusions of the Cygnus exerecise had been completely ignored. He then went on to point out, again diplomatically but quite clearly that he made it perfectly clear to the Government of the day (I.e Blair's) that he would speak directly to the public and seperately from the government as he believed that was the only way the public would trust that he was giving genuinely independent and reliable advice. The government of the day agreed with this and that was the accepted modus operandi which persisted until 2010 at which point the CSO became a goverment patsy rather than an independent advisor - my words rather than his but that is the gist of what he said! He didn't talk specifically about the Sunday Times articles but effectively confirmed that all the major criticisms were correct. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said: I thought that it was generally assumed that there was some seasonal element to this, cold and wet being the preference? there was an initial hope it may fade away a bit like winter flu when the summer came, but infections in hot climates tended to rebuff that, but from the headline there appears to be some limited effect from heat and uv. Edited April 19, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,848 Posted April 19, 2020 (edited) Seems like the Daily Mail tomorrow has put the government under the grill. Gas mark 7. Done nice and crispy. The worm turns. Edited April 19, 2020 by Yellow Fever Heat and UV disrupts most pathogens Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 837 Posted April 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Van wink said: there was an initial hope it may fade away a bit like winter flu when the summer came, but infections in hot climates tended to rebuff that, but from the headline there appears to be some limited effect from heat and uv. Someone will do some sort of analysis on this I am sure but I can't see anything too controversial in saying that transmission of this virus will likely be easier in some climatic conditions than in others. That's not to say that it will die away completely, I dont think anyone would suggest that. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted April 20, 2020 You don’t need hindsight to know that you should have an effective emergency plan in place for a pandemic that was rated as the highest risks to society Other countries did have plans in place without hindsight so that excuse does not wash. The UK had other priorities Clearly some people are seeking to deny and deflect culpability for their ideological beliefs being prioritised over healthcare. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 5,051 Posted April 20, 2020 (edited) Has anyone been following the figures for Norfolk? I was a bit shocked when I looked this morning and saw we are just short of 1,000 cases. I think we're about 1.3% of the UK population so if the disease was evenly spread we would have have around 1,550. So we are currently well down on the worst case scenario. However, Norfolk, like Cornwall, is out on a limb with no through traffic so our figures should be lower than London for example. The last time I looked was a couple of weeks ago and at that time we were more than 50% down on the national average so there has clearly been a surge recently. In the last 10 days recorded cases in Cornwall have increased by 50% but in Norfolk the increase in that period is 100%. Are we just a couple of weeks behind everyone else? If so, the effect of a blanket relaxation of social distancing is a worry. Edited April 20, 2020 by dylanisabaddog Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,852 Posted April 20, 2020 8 hours ago, Yellow Fever said: Seems like the Daily Mail tomorrow has put the government under the grill. Gas mark 7. Done nice and crispy. The worm turns. Who'd have thought the Mail and Piers Morgan would be the ones holding the government to account?! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Capt. Pants 4,323 Posted April 20, 2020 I wouldn't worry about a blanket lifting of restrictions anytime soon. Boots are now being laced up to give the Govt a right kicking, and rightly so. As a matter of interest do we actually have an Opposition Party nowadays? Conspicuous by their absence? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CANARYKING 644 Posted April 20, 2020 Gove now saying pubs not open till Christmas, that doesn’t bode well for football Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
