Corona Virus main thread

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

I understand a lot of posters on here are not fans of Ivor Cummings but he did have one very interesting chart on his last video that showed if you drilled down from the regional data and looked at localised data, there was a clear pattern that localities that did well in the first wave, did much worse in the second wave. And similarly those that fared badly in the first wave did much better in the second wave. It would be interesting to see similar charts plotted for other countries to see if there is a similar pattern. If this is true, to me that suggests superspreaders responsible for localised outbreaks and then a level of localised immunity being reached.

[CANARYKING 644]

So what’s the betting for Wednesday, Tier One, Two, or Three ?

[Barbe bleu 837]

15 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I understand a lot of posters on here are not fans of Ivor Cummings but he did have one very interesting chart on his last video that showed if you drilled down from the regional data and looked at localised data, there was a clear pattern that localities that did well in the first wave, did much worse in the second wave. And similarly those that fared badly in the first wave did much better in the second wave. It would be interesting to see similar charts plotted for other countries to see if there is a similar pattern. If this is true, to me that suggests superspreaders responsible for localised outbreaks and then a level of localised immunity being reached.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Does the data here suppprt the view?

[ricardo 7,445]

Yesterdays European.

Italy         19903 - 649

France    13974 - 194

Spain    

Germany  21816 - 351       .

[benchwarmer 625]

On 12/12/2020 at 17:17, Van wink said:

Looks like Germany is facing a lot more challenge than it did first time round, it was mainly an infection of the younger demographic in March, presumably it’s reaching the older folks this time.

It's more likely to be a change in recording methods.  Last time Germany's death rate was completely at variance with the rest of Europe and it was supposed that they only recorded deaths where covid was the main cause, not those where covid was present but who would have died anyway, especially the elderly.  It looks as though they've come into alignment now.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

30 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

It's more likely to be a change in recording methods.  Last time Germany's death rate was completely at variance with the rest of Europe and it was supposed that they only recorded deaths where covid was the main cause, not those where covid was present but who would have died anyway, especially the elderly.  It looks as though they've come into alignment now.

 

Mmm ok, do you have a link for that please?

[It's Character Forming 1,167]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Mmm ok, do you have a link for that please?

Yep evidence or a link please? The general consensus I’ve seen is that Germany handled the first wave better than most European countries for various reasons.

 

Japan has clearly done amazingly well, article about this in the Economist, I’ll post a link when I have time.

[Barbe bleu 837]

18 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

 

 

Japan has clearly done amazingly well, article about this in the Economist, I’ll post a link when I have time.

I would be interested in that article for sure.  Japan barely had a lockdown and has done comparatively little on testing do what is the reason for their success? Compliant population,  past infections, lucky genes, benevolent climate?

[benchwarmer 625]

23 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yep evidence or a link please? The general consensus I’ve seen is that Germany handled the first wave better than most European countries for various reasons.

 

There's no hard evidence because Germany has said nothing, except that they only recorded deaths where there was a positive test - but not whether they recorded ALL deaths with a positive test. 

But here's a thing.  From the many articles on this topic by puzzled scientists worldwide, it's clear that Germany's death rate (deaths per infections) was low because of more widespread testing than elsewhere of younger age groups with lower mortality.  Median age of testing was 47 in Germany, 63 in Italy. 

But the total number of positive tests was the fifth highest in the world.  So why was the number of recorded deaths so low?  "The best treatment" doesn't really explain it, since no one knew at that stage what the best treatment was.  Were the elderly not being widely tested and therefore their deaths not recorded as covid-related?  A median testing age of 47 could point in that direction. 

Perhaps their testing policy has changed, not their recording policy.  But as usual, more questions than answers.

Edited December 14, 2020 by benchwarmer

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

9 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Does the data here suppprt the view?

Difficult to compare localities over time the way that data is presented but it is something that ought to be done

[Barbe bleu 837]

10 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Difficult to compare localities over time the way that data is presented but it is something that ought to be done

I did have a quick look at the London figures.  Definitely switch from West and Central to East. Could be the immunity effect in play, but could be a middle class effect as well I guess,  could be lots of things 

Edited December 14, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Van wink 2,994]

Zoe figures seem to be creeping back up, unsurprisingly. Looking like some areas, London Essex Kent, may be moved up to tier 3 as soon as today

Edited December 14, 2020 by Van wink

[SHRIMPER 328]

Restrictions are getting tighter at the Colney centre. I now have to sit in the car.. phone reception and wait. They then call me to tell me to go in when it is my turn. Nightmare as I only ever seem to  get very patchy phone reception in that area of Norwich.

[sonyc 5,541]

10 minutes ago, SHRIMPER said:

Restrictions are getting tighter at the Colney centre. I now have to sit in the car.. phone reception and wait. They then call me to tell me to go in when it is my turn. Nightmare as I only ever seem to  get very patchy phone reception in that area of Norwich.

It's been like that here since March Shrimper. Everyone sits in a car and folk are ushered in via a side door at GP surgeries.

[sonyc 5,541]

24 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Zoe figures seem to be creeping back up, unsurprisingly. Looking like some areas, London Essex Kent, may be moved up to tier 3 as soon as today

Yes, it has gone up driven obviously by the far south / east and London. It is a dangerous time I think given the hopes that the vaccine is so close. Sarah Gilbert is a voice I trust and she sees much to be worried about.

[ricardo 7,445]

Its safest of all here in the Golden Triangle but looks a bit hairy at Thorpe End😉

 

[SHRIMPER 328]

35 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It's been like that here since March Shrimper. Everyone sits in a car and folk are ushered in via a side door at GP surgeries.

I was at the N & N twice in the last two weeks and went straight in with no phoning sonyc. Been 5 times in the last 6 weeks for scans also. I do not mind at all as when you do get in the service provided is superb. Its just the phone reception that niggles me.

[Van wink 2,994]

22 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its safest of all here in the Golden Triangle but looks a bit hairy at Thorpe End😉

 

Amazing what all that gold can buy🔔

( do we know if Billy will be going “the extra mile” btw? )

Edited December 14, 2020 by Van wink

[CANARYKING 644]

Looks like London going into Tier 3 immediately 

[Bill 1,788]

12 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Looks like London going into Tier 3 immediately 

Ipswich have been stuck there since May 2019 😉

[Well b back 3,309]

The main concern at present with London is the Mutation that has been spotted.

So far the signs are promising that it ‘ has not side stepped ‘ the vaccine.

[Yellow Fever 3,851]

Sensible articles in the Guardian today. Interesting comments on the 'Sage' predictions looking back!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/14/herd-immunity-boris-johnson-coronavirus

[Herman 9,859]

I thought tiers were supposed to be county wide? I miss out luckily but some Herts boroughs get moved up.

[Bill 1,788]

11 minutes ago, Herman said:

I thought tiers were supposed to be county wide? I miss out luckily but some Herts boroughs get moved up.

This limit on only three family groups mixing over Xmas will give Johnson a headache

Working out which of his kids he will have to leave out seeing

[Herman 9,859]

2 minutes ago, Bill said:

This limit on only three family groups mixing over Xmas will give Johnson a headache

Working out which of his kids he will have to leave out seeing

Alternatively, there are an unknown amount of kids happy they won't have to see their dad this Christmas.😀

[ricardo 7,445]

U.K. Cases up, deaths down on the week.

Yesterdays European.

Italy         17983 - 484

France    11553 - 150

Spain    

Germany  17891 - 235       .

[ricardo 7,445]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sensible articles in the Guardian today. Interesting comments on the 'Sage' predictions looking back!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/14/herd-immunity-boris-johnson-coronavirus

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Am I missing something here? That 'sensible' Guardian article is claiming there has been 45,000 cases per day and 450 deaths a day in Oct-Nov. But looking at Ricardo's charts there is nowhere near that figure for either chart.

[CANARYKING 644]

Just finished tonight’s Panorama, do catch it if you can, Sarah is on

[Yellow Fever 3,851]

27 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Am I missing something here? That 'sensible' Guardian article is claiming there has been 45,000 cases per day and 450 deaths a day in Oct-Nov. But looking at Ricardo's charts there is nowhere near that figure for either chart.

You are missing something.

ONS data for instance -

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/11december2020

"Based on statistical modelling, we estimate that during the most recent week of the study¹ (22 to 28 November 2020), there were 4.71 new coronavirus (COVID-19) infections per 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 4.09 to 5.40)¹. This equates to 25,700 new infections per day (95% credible interval: 22,300 to 29,400)."

Mid October it was twice this - and this is for England alone. Yes 50,000 new cases per day was about right. Don't be confused by the actual number of formally confirmed tests - obviously a lot less than those out there but untested hence the ONS random sampling. 

Clearly death per day peaked at circa 500/day and have now fallen back a little,