Mark .Y. 352 Posted May 22, 2020 47 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said: Not slowing down quick enough if that makes sense. Yes, I do know what you mean KG. The fall in the announced deaths versus the same day of the previous week is consistently somewhere between 10 and 20%. But, for sure, it feels slow going. For a bit of comparison, Spain announced between 102 and 217 deaths from the 9th to the 16th May inclusive. From the 17th to the 21st inclusive the daily number has been below 100, yesterday being a new low of 48. (By the way, those figures are from the official Spanish Government website and as used on Spanish TV, worldometers website does not always seem to tie up with them for some reason) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 54 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said: Yes, I do know what you mean KG. The fall in the announced deaths versus the same day of the previous week is consistently somewhere between 10 and 20%. But, for sure, it feels slow going. For a bit of comparison, Spain announced between 102 and 217 deaths from the 9th to the 16th May inclusive. From the 17th to the 21st inclusive the daily number has been below 100, yesterday being a new low of 48. (By the way, those figures are from the official Spanish Government website and as used on Spanish TV, worldometers website does not always seem to tie up with them for some reason) I would guess the rate of rise, and decay is simply a factor (almost by definition) of how much the 'R' number (although it has no time dimension) is away from unity. Before the lockdown R >> 1 perhaps 2 or even 3. Now with our weak lockdown just under 1 so sloooowwww. Spain still has a stronger lockdown so much faster decay and R well under 1. Edited May 22, 2020 by Yellow Fever There is as Johnson seems ro be learning slowly - no free lunch. What a shocker for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 22, 2020 10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: I would guess the rate of rise, and decay is simply a factor (almost by definition) of how much the 'R' number (although it has no time dimension) is away from unity. Before the lockdown R >> 1 perhaps 2 or even 3. Now with our weak lockdown just under 1 so sloooowwww. Spain still has a stronger lockdown so much faster decay and R well under 1. oh dear the R number is simply guess work, that is all so pretty meaningless, but possible harmful as it is likely to cause the 'not too bright' to take actions that reflect that guess rather than known preventative action Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted May 22, 2020 The full interview is very interesting. Also another angle on the R number. More in agreement with Bill. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted May 22, 2020 Blll. Everybody sensible knows that the R number is just a metric - a shorthand way of giving an overall picture in a simple number of infection growth and decay for a region. No more and no less. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 352 Posted May 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: I would guess the rate of rise, and decay is simply a factor (almost by definition) of how much the 'R' number (although it has no time dimension) is away from unity. Before the lockdown R >> 1 perhaps 2 or even 3. Now with our weak lockdown just under 1 so sloooowwww. Spain still has a stronger lockdown so much faster decay and R well under 1. I'm interested in why you think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK, YF. We have no bar or restaurant terraces open as they do. Groups of up to 10 people are permited to meet. Madrid and Barcelona are the last two regions to be allowed to do this and they begin on Monday. At the same time the majority of the other regions will be able to open museums, art galleries cinemas etc (with restricted capacity) and some schools will go back. They are pretty strict with their requirement to wear masks but I'd say they are ahead of us in all other aspects. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted May 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said: I'm interested in why you think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK, YF. We have no bar or restaurant terraces open as they do. Groups of up to 10 people are permited to meet. Madrid and Barcelona are the last two regions to be allowed to do this and they begin on Monday. At the same time the majority of the other regions will be able to open museums, art galleries cinemas etc (with restricted capacity) and some schools will go back. They are pretty strict with their requirement to wear masks but I'd say they are ahead of us in all other aspects. Time lag on deaths. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 352 Posted May 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: Time lag on deaths. Sorry, I don't understand what you mean. You said Spain still has a stronger lockdown, that was the bit I was disagreeing with, and gave the reasons why. Given those reasons, do you still think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted May 22, 2020 Just now, Mark .Y. said: Sorry, I don't understand what you mean. You said Spain still has a stronger lockdown, that was the bit I was disagreeing with, and gave the reasons why. Given those reasons, do you still think Spain still has a stronger lockdown than the UK ? Sorry - the pevious comment was referring to 'deaths' - which general lag any 'infection' i.e. any R number or whatever by several weeks! Hence the current fast dropping deaths in Spain are really from infection best part of a month ago - in their strict lockdown (and our weeker one) ! Give it another month to see where we are with deaths from lock downs of today. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted May 22, 2020 22 minutes ago, ricardo said: The full interview is very interesting. Also another angle on the R number. More in agreement with Bill. It's interesting Ricardo - But it's a little dated as the serological data for the UK does indeed show 5% generally and 17% for London - where as the interviewer probes that make her theory more awkward and difficult to square. Of course there will be higher true number and all sorts of 'other' effects at play - perhaps large numbers are immune anyway as she alighted upon prior CV-19. Whatever you think it looks pretty infectious and deadly to me in the over 70s. If it had spread widely much earlier where is the excess deaths for these in January and February. They are not there. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 22, 2020 16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: Blll. Everybody sensible knows that the R number is just a metric - a shorthand way of giving an overall picture in a simple number of infection growth and decay for a region. No more and no less. No, that is just you making up stuff - as I would suggest that the overwhelming majority havn't a clue about how this buffoonery is arrived art a formula that has an unknown number of virus deaths factored into an unknown number of infections added to a unqualified number of tests that have no control to measure against, coupled with the same for hospital admissions so there is no measure of infection spread as there is no means of counting that we cannot agree what the figure for virus caused deaths is testing is random and is seeing large numbers of tests not being returned and hospital admissions are not based on any control, but are variable/subjective and out of those guessed at numbers we are supposed to accept that the guessed at final figure has some degree of accurate indication of what is happening...... .....more so, all those guesses are over two weeks old ! dear god, I have to wonder at times 🙄 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 22, 2020 40 minutes ago, ricardo said: The full interview is very interesting. Also another angle on the R number. More in agreement with Bill. thank you R (🙂) if anyone is interested then go to 18mins 15 secs in which the woman echoes the points made in my previous posts and adds the warnings I have raised it just seems to me that such obvious flaws in the R guff should be not easily seen by others and unkind as it is, that is why I have made reference to it being some sort of 'fortune telling' as peddled on here do listen to her on 18 mins 15 secs - and heed the warnings Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,819 Posted May 22, 2020 It's Pritti Patel today. Quarantine, or two weeks isolation to be precise, will come into force, many months and millions of visitors too late, in TWO weeks time. Bravo. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 22, 2020 "Border Force will be able to refuse entry to foreign citizens who are not UK residents during border checks " that's the bit I don't understand it's almost as if the UK has had that power all along surely they haven't been lying to the brexit numpties ? ps before any comment, do check on what controls have changed since 31st Jan 2020 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 352 Posted May 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, Herman said: It's Pritti Patel today. Quarantine, or two weeks isolation to be precise, will come into force, many months and millions of visitors too late, in TWO weeks time. Bravo. And I'm betting that within a month it will be rescinded for many countries. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,819 Posted May 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said: And I'm betting that within a month it will be rescinded for many countries. The Australians, quite fairly, were already grumbling. And the Koreans have a bit of spending power, so you are probably right. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted May 22, 2020 1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said: It's interesting Ricardo - But it's a little dated as the serological data for the UK does indeed show 5% generally and 17% for London - where as the interviewer probes that make her theory more awkward and difficult to square. Of course there will be higher true number and all sorts of 'other' effects at play - perhaps large numbers are immune anyway as she alighted upon prior CV-19. Whatever you think it looks pretty infectious and deadly to me in the over 70s. If it had spread widely much earlier where is the excess deaths for these in January and February. They are not there. Very thought provoking point re the lockdown at 25.20 secs Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 352 Posted May 22, 2020 9 minutes ago, Herman said: The Australians, quite fairly, were already grumbling. And the Koreans have a bit of spending power, so you are probably right. Yes, I can see many countries being exempted including most of the EU Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted May 22, 2020 19 minutes ago, ricardo said: Very thought provoking point re the lockdown at 25.20 secs I will look again later. Just had fish and chips for the first time in many many weeks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted May 22, 2020 Just now, Yellow Fever said: I will look again later. Just had fish and chips for the first time in many many weeks. Cor, 🍟🐟 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 832 Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) As we are talking about t cells and herd immunity I thought I'd throw this in https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity "Immune warriors known as T cells help us fight some viruses, but their importance for battling SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has been unclear. Now, two studies reveal infected people harbor T cells that target the virus—and may help them recover. Both studies also found some people never infected with SARS-CoV-2 have these cellular defenses, most likely because they were previously infected with other coronaviruses.... ...The teams also asked whether people who haven’t been infected with SARS-CoV-2 also produce cells that combat it. Thiel and colleagues analyzed blood from 68 uninfected people and found that 34% hosted helper T cells that recognized SARS-CoV-2" or put it another way you may have some immunity if you have previously encountered a similar coronavirus. might mean that antibody levels in studies do not show the true level of immunity. Meaning we could be closer to the critical level than we realise. Edited May 22, 2020 by Barbe bleu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted May 22, 2020 5 hours ago, keelansgrandad said: Not slowing down quick enough if that makes sense. Yeh of course it makes sense, we were coming of the peak and now we have another epidemic taking place in hospitals and care settings, a tragedy. Indications are that infection within the community has a much lower rate of infection, sadly no consolation for the loved ones of those departed. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,314 Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Van wink said: Yeh of course it makes sense, we were coming of the peak and now we have another epidemic taking place in hospitals and care settings, a tragedy. Indications are that infection within the community has a much lower rate of infection, sadly no consolation for the loved ones of those departed. Of corse this is true but more people on average died from cancer today. Looks like we’re not too far away from treatments which might have a positive effect on the virus those infected and at more risk. So as sad as things still are for those losing loved ones there’s definitely positives. Get treatments in place which can prevent serious effects then it’s game on..... Edited May 22, 2020 by Indy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Indy said: Of corse this is true but more people on average died from cancer today. Looks like we’re not too far away from treatments which might have a positive effect on the virus those infected and at more risk. Get treatments in place which can prevent serious effects then it’s game on..... .......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,314 Posted May 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bill said: .......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over I’m not sure it will be for long Bill, it certainly looks like a number of treatments are looking like they might help in the fight against this virus. It’s been pretty vicious on the older population, but hopefully it’ll show that care homes need to be more prepared for thing type of event in the future. I’m still at a loss to why any older vulnerable people weren’t moved to hospitals before they got too seriously ill, surely if they showed symptoms they should have been isolated in hospital? That’s just one area though. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 762 Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Bill said: .......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over How many people over 70 have had it and survived? Edit: I’ve got no idea Edited May 22, 2020 by Aggy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted May 22, 2020 32 minutes ago, Indy said: I’m still at a loss to why any older vulnerable people weren’t moved to hospitals before they got too seriously ill, perhaps your earlier thought held sway "time to know you can’t save everyone, the cost would have been and still are well over the top in my book, especially when you you consider you old boys have lived your life through probably the best of years." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted May 22, 2020 42 minutes ago, Bill said: .......................except if you are over 70, then it's game over More nonsense. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Indy 3,314 Posted May 22, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Bill said: perhaps your earlier thought held sway "time to know you can’t save everyone, the cost would have been and still are well over the top in my book, especially when you you consider you old boys have lived your life through probably the best of years." Sorry Bill, in context it was against the 88 billion cost in one month, I know you’re view is more focused on the lives lost, but the reality is that the average age which people are living has risen by nearly 10 years to 83....from where it was in the late 70’s. I stand by the fact we now try to save everyone’s lives when the reality is they might only have a few months of very poor quality of life left. I have a different view that we live to have families, we want the best for our children and I’d certainly want to protect them, so you might see me as callous but for me I’d rather an 85 year old with serious health issues pass away than any youngster or parents in their 30’s. As we know a good NHS needs to be funded well, the longer we borrow record amounts the weaker the NHS might become in the future. I accept we see things differently I’ve worked in an industry where I’ve spent lots of time doing hazops, risk assessment and as aviation we had to put a price on a life, I suppose this with other things just make life less important to me. That said I’ve been shopping and looking after a few of our local elderly residents in our road, it’s been a pleasure and a laugh to get to know them better. It’s always sad when someone passes but that’s the way of life. Edited May 22, 2020 by Indy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites