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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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Posted (edited)

It has just been announced that the Brazilian President’s press secretary has tested positive for Coronavirus. Among his recent contacts are the Brazilian President and President Trump, they were at dinner together in Florida last week. So Trump could be next, or maybe he is already infected and infectious but not showing significant symptoms. (He has been sniffing and short of breath for months it was not just in last nights speech to the nation) 

I hope the Irish PM is going to be OK after his meeting with President Trump today. (Trump was spouting more none sense about testing every US citizen coming back to the US - they can’t test even a minuscule fraction of those who are here in the US, so no way to do it at European, Irish or UK airports pre-boarding without asking Europeans to do it for them. 
 

And the Canadian PM’s wife is feeling ill so he is self-quaranteeing as well as a precaution. 
 

Edited by Surfer

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1 minute ago, Surfer said:

It has just been announced that the Brazilian President’s press secretary has tested positive for Coronavirus. Amount his recent contacts are the Brazilian President and President Trump, they were at dinner together in Florida last week. So Trump could be next, or maybe he is already infected and infectious but not showing significant symptoms. (He has been sniffing and short of breath for months it was not just in last nights speech to the nation. 
 

And the Canadian PM’s wife is feeling ill so he is self-quaranteeing as well as a precaution. 
 

He can self isolate behind his wall.

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

He can self isolate behind his wall.

As much as I dislike VP Pence politically, the best opportunity for the US right now would be for something to prevent the President from tweeting or public appearances and put the VP in charge. He at least has good communication skills and can spin a semi credible storyline. 
 

(Yes I know about AIDS in Indiana etc etc, but this is about who can offer trusted leadership, and the two parties could rally around Pence) 

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Still awaiting for  the regional list of virus cases for today, it usually pops up at 4pm, but the site does say that there are 491 cases in England, with 32 cases in East Anglia, which is the same number as Wednesday for Eastern England. But each days new total always includes a few dozen "to be determined" cases. But if 32 is the accurate figure for Thursday then Norfolk will escape again, unless  any case pops up from those "tbd" cases.

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16 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Still awaiting for  the regional list of virus cases for today, it usually pops up at 4pm, but the site does say that there are 491 cases in England, with 32 cases in East Anglia, which is the same number as Wednesday for Eastern England. But each days new total always includes a few dozen "to be determined" cases. But if 32 is the accurate figure for Thursday then Norfolk will escape again, unless  any case pops up from those "tbd" cases.

Scientists tell us that there are thousands with no symptoms who are spreading Essjayess. This is the problem. Testing has not been done for anyone either ringing 111 if they have not been in touch with someone officially confirmed. This is a massive hidden problem. It's great that Norfolk has no official cases but when it has been detected on Scottish islands then we must assume it's everywhere. The numbers could be in the thousands and community infection is happening. 

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Italy numbers starting to look like casualties on the Somme.

As the numbers here rise the clamour for shut downs will be impossible to ignore.

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At least the press conference was clear. So our science is different to other science. I hope ours is correct.

But some salient points from the press conference were that our outbreak is following the Italian one. 12 days ago they had 35 deaths  now it is over a thousand. And also that there is little point in testing so the numbers are not what are released and not even close. 

This weekend of sport I would imagine and then its closed doors and then cancellation.

And if anyone was in doubt then Boris made it clear that many are going to die.

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They have admitted there are thousands of cases (untested)  with symptoms but are working on a balance of accepting increasing numbers of confirmed cases and the simple passage of time. That is the strategy.

And folk who are ill are asked to stay at home. 

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

Scientists tell us that there are thousands with no symptoms who are spreading Essjayess. This is the problem. Testing has not been done for anyone either ringing 111 if they have not been in touch with someone officially confirmed. This is a massive hidden problem. It's great that Norfolk has no official cases but when it has been detected on Scottish islands then we must assume it's everywhere. The numbers could be in the thousands and community infection is happening. 

Yes i agree Sonyc, i typed that info before the PM announced the move from containment to delay phase, which adds more paint to the picture. Many people will not agree with the governments decisions im sure, but its again, based on scientific, medical and professionally modelled  approach, along with as much up to date info as can be had what is happening with the virus globally.  The government clearly saying the virus is here, it cannot be stopped despite what any  measures are taken, but that the most stringent and draconian measures must be taken when the virus reaches a certain peak. They estimating that peak to be similar to the Italy  situation and estimate it at 4 weeks away. Also of note, because the virus cannot be stopped, its important for a build up of immunity to it, and the only way, without vaccines  for a long time, is for humans to actually get the virus and  allow the amazing bodies we have to naturally defend and build immunity to it. This is why, despite many nations seemingly taking more  draconian measures then the UK at this moment in time, i do understand the governments phase build up and think its as sensible as can be  when we are dealing with a global pandemic.

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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yes i agree Sonyc, i typed that info before the PM announced the move from containment to delay phase, which adds more paint to the picture. Many people will not agree with the governments decisions im sure, but its again, based on scientific, medical and professionally modelled  approach, along with as much up to date info as can be had what is happening with the virus globally.  The government clearly saying the virus is here, it cannot be stopped despite what any  measures are taken, but that the most stringent and draconian measures must be taken when the virus reaches a certain peak. They estimating that peak to be similar to the Italy  situation and estimate it at 4 weeks away. Also of note, because the virus cannot be stopped, its important for a build up of immunity to it, and the only way, without vaccines  for a long time, is for humans to actually get the virus and  allow the amazing bodies we have to naturally defend and build immunity to it. This is why, despite many nations seemingly taking more  draconian measures then the UK at this moment in time, i do understand the governments phase build up and think its as sensible as can be  when we are dealing with a global pandemic.

Time will tell us Essjayess. Just have to hope this is the right strategy.

Interesting that Hungary, Italy, Scotland, Ireland etc are taking a different route (presumably they also have scientific advice). Only the Netherlands are similar in strategy from my understanding and reading. 

I suppose it will all come out in the figures. Led by science eh? Who would have thought experts would guide this government! But I don't want to stray into more political waters.

I do feel we are letting this just develop. 'Marathon not a sprint' is the phrase. A bit like a horse booting ahead in a 3 mile chase and then caught later as exhaustion kicks in. 

 

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7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Time will tell us Essjayess. Just have to hope this is the right strategy.

Interesting that Hungary, Italy, Scotland, Ireland etc are taking a different route (presumably they also have scientific advice). Only the Netherlands are similar in strategy from my understanding and reading. 

I suppose it will all come out in the figures. Led by science eh? Who would have thought experts would guide this government! But I don't want to stray into more political waters.

 

 

Experts with diametrically opposite expert opinions.

Who'd a thunk it.

 

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11 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Time will tell us Essjayess. Just have to hope this is the right strategy.

Interesting that Hungary, Italy, Scotland, Ireland etc are taking a different route (presumably they also have scientific advice). Only the Netherlands are similar in strategy from my understanding and reading. 

I suppose it will all come out in the figures. Led by science eh? Who would have thought experts would guide this government! But I don't want to stray into more political waters.

I do feel we are letting this just develop. 'Marathon not a sprint' is the phrase. A bit like a horse booting ahead in a 3 mile chase and then caught later as exhaustion kicks in. 

 

I think maybe some other nations will adopt the UK approach in all honesty. For sure Sweden are going the same route in that they are giving up general testing for the virus and, as the UK will now do, only test those who are hospitalised.

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why is this called Wuhan virus when its genome suggests that it comes from another western country. Some inte45rnational fair in Wuhan saw delegates from all over the world attend and it does only take one person walking though the market to cause this bio hazard/weapon.

But hey, none of us is infallible and it is good to know that this Government even after todays announcement is still allowing cross contamination. Not enough that travellers returning from Italy were not tested,  Cheltenham was allowed to go ahead, with all the staked money and business that comes along with it, but it has cross contaminated Irish visitors with ours.

 

Today's announcement will lead to more cross contamination as EU travellers to the US from 25 EU countries will attend our airports.

Wishing everyone luck with staying at home. Expect Fairs and concerts to be cancelled, don't book festivals in advance, or face not getting your money back if they are cancelled.

 

We are in control...., sorry didn't mean to crack a joke

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The EU citizens "blocked" from traveling to the US, unless they can prove they have not been there for 14 days.

So the UK, Ireland, Ukraine and all the Balkan states except Greece are excluded.

All because they didn't know how to stop travel to the US from Northern Italy. 

And still nothing they can do to stop Americans returning from Northern Italy. 

EU area.jpg

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All countries are following the same constrain delay mitigate research strategies. Different countries  like China and Italy are at different stages and different countries have different resources and different regimes and cultures and are also driven by politics.
 

The two countries with the most expertise Germany and the UK are both following the same approach. No doubt they will bring more restrictions in as Italy has done as it accelerates.

 Given all the major developments in medical science over time I would rather trust to medical science then football punters and you tubers unless they can give me their qualifications experience and evidence based analysis. The suggestion is the UK is not looking at what other countries are doing. Of course they are analysing their actions and outcomes and are taking these into consideration. The Uk has clearly explained its reasoning.and been honest about that reality. I appreciate that people don’t like or want  to accept that reality because it is not pleasant. Neither do I but it is what it is. Tale your own actions because no one has a magic solution. 

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4 hours ago, sonyc said:

Haven't banks been building up their reserves massively since 2008/9 precisely to build a greater capital buffer?

Have they? Don't think so, they are more rigourously stress tested by regulators but pretty sure those tests don't account for unprecedented events like this. 

PPI claims have been a huge drain on retail banks for a decade now and a lot of UK banks have been loss making for a few years. 

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It is now obviously clear that applying the x5 to x10  times the  amount of virus infected compared to ones tested that trying to get some global amount of those infected is pure guesswork. Perhaps the approach  taken by the UK and Sweden now is more realistic, in that those hospitalised and more especially those serious / critical are the more important statistic by far. Saying that then, there are currently 20 cases in the UK in serious / critical condition and 10 deaths. Italy currently has over 1,100 in serious / critical condition and China over 4,000, proving that the really serious / critical numbers are still way higher in China and Italy than in the UK.

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19 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

It is now obviously clear that applying the x5 to x10  times the  amount of virus infected compared to ones tested that trying to get some global amount of those infected is pure guesswork. Perhaps the approach  taken by the UK and Sweden now is more realistic, in that those hospitalised and more especially those serious / critical are the more important statistic by far. Saying that then, there are currently 20 cases in the UK in serious / critical condition and 10 deaths. Italy currently has over 1,100 in serious / critical condition and China over 4,000, proving that the really serious / critical numbers are still way higher in China and Italy than in the UK.

Actually the government has been doing some random testing (it's how some of the cases were identified).  The figure of 10 to 20 x those identified is undoubtedly based on this random sampling and a reasonably accurate guide.

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13 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Actually the government has been doing some random testing (it's how some of the cases were identified).  The figure of 10 to 20 x those identified is undoubtedly based on this random sampling and a reasonably accurate guide.

That makes sense and tells us why they estimate the real numbers to be up to 10,000.

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Posted (edited)
On 12/03/2020 at 13:52, sonyc said:

That makes sense and tells us why they estimate the real numbers to be up to 10,000.

It could well be more as people infected are infectious before showing symptoms, which is the first opportunity to be isolated. 

Governor of Ohio says over 100k people in the state are carrying the virus.  Yet according to CDC only 4 cases to date there.
 
Meanwhile Disneyland is closing for 2 weeks starting Saturday. Southern California has not been seen as a hot spot yet, but the pressure to not be the only mass meeting site in the state was unresistable. Staff will still be paid fortunately. 

 

Edited by Surfer

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3 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

why is this called Wuhan virus when its genome suggests that it comes from another western country.... it does only take one person walking though the market to cause this bio hazard/weapon.

Do you have a source for this or shall we put it in the 'interesting' file?

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1 hour ago, T said:

All countries are following the same constrain delay mitigate research strategies. 

Agreed. This is literally how public health experts are trained to do it:

 

1) Prevent it before it occurs 2)- reduce impact of it once it occurs 3)- mitigate the worst effects

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No specific comment to make, but just an interesting data point. 

Data Point.jpg

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Actually the government has been doing some random testing (it's how some of the cases were identified).  The figure of 10 to 20 x those identified is undoubtedly based on this random sampling and a reasonably accurate guide.

Yep that could well be YF, i agree. What i was alluding to really was...ok, ive been watching Worldometer a few weeks now, they of course have  tables and stats coming out of their ears, ive watched the Covid-19 infected cases  increase from when it was just a few thousand and now its around 135k but i think this figure is kinda meaningless now as it could be  in reality....500k...or 1 million...even more..so it reaches a stage when my brain says...ok...thats a lot..but really...its the serious / critical cases that should be of more importance, so for me personally, i will be more interested in that statistic  as it can be more accurately assessed of course literally by  being hospitalised and counted.

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The policy as described at the press conference (to my ears anyway) seems to be "people will die before their time and it's going to get very serious especially for the elderly and we are waiting for the peak numbers to arrive which could be in many weeks time. And we are not going to test folk unless hospitalised". That's about it isn't it? I've summarised that correctly?

Although delivered I felt with solemnity the words are chilling. Chilling for me because this is not the Britain I know or want to belong to. That's my problem.  It means we are going to let people die and we just accept it.... mortality rates will increase. Now, I realise any government is faced with a terrible dilemma. I can see the family / economy conundrum of closing everything down. Whatever a government does too will be criticised. I cannot imagine what a Corbyn government would do either. It wouldn't fill me with confidence.

This latest action just feels heartless now I've absorbed it all. So un-British. So uncaring. It's like a version of Russian roulette.

No wonder we don't have an adult social care solution.  It feels like, so chillingly, that older people are not so important. 

Apologies to anyone who finds my words insulting. I've been trying to take it all in and felt the need to express my feelings about it all. Some will just say I'm soft in the head (I am, I admit). 

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I now understand it all. We were the odd ones out in Europe and we are not going to be dictated to by them.  We will do it out way even though it is going to kill many of the elderly relatives who watched the press conference.

And then we should listen to no marks who blog and then demand money because they are so stupid nobody would employ them.

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Posted (edited)

This is why the US healthcare model is FUBAR and the UK must avoid it at all costs.....it's literally killing people.

The lady holding their feet to the fire is a recently elected Democratic Party Congresswoman from Orange County. 

(The reason she seems to write different numbers is a Representative has only 5 minutes to make their point, so she probably had her staff research the numbers already, she just wanted him to voice numbers that were at least as big as the ones she was writing down ) 

 

Edited by Surfer

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