Wuhan coronavirus

[T 190]

No evidence that border controls effective given nature of disease. 
 

Given that there are currently no treatments or prevention let us hope there is some herd immunity. Hopefully Hubei shows that this passes through the population and then declines.  People will argue that this is due to controls but given the delays in action and the delays between infection and becoming reported cases and then death of about a month then it is likely that it was already widespread before action was taken so we are also seeing the usual normal curve of it passing through a population. It will be difficult to say how much of this is due to normal development and how much due to controls. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

24 minutes ago, T said:

Indeed the only way to eliminate this is long term self isolation. I see plenty of people willing to risk the livelihoods of other people but not willing to undergo long term self isolation themselves. It simply isn’t viable. It is easy to criticise the govt but there are no nice easy solutions to this. 

Of course it is extremely important for individuals to do everything they practically can to protect themselves and others but the idea that long term self isolation is the only solution is preposterous and not remotely practical. Even before the virus really hits we have a huge number of people in this country totally dependent on carers of one sort or another, and probably an even bigger number of people caring for them, who will also be expected to treat all the seriously ill virus victims that are forecast to arrive.

Where do they sit in your long term self isolation (and Boris's) solution, just collateral damage presumably?

[Barbe bleu 823]

19 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

I doubt that anyone is yet in a position to say conclusively why the UK has performed so poorly relative to other countries.

But you are in a position to conclusively say that it has performed poorly relative to other countries?

On what basis is this being said?  Not because other EU countries have fared better it seems, but you'll say that is because we are an island and it's not a fair comparison.   So it might be worth considering how other island populations have fared, what of Ireland or iceland?   What can we learn from this comparison? 

Because transmission in Singapore has been low? But is this a fairer comparison?  What impact has the average sunshine, temperature, rainfall etc on all of this? Is Singapore culturally more used to this?  How do demographics in singapore compare?

I wonder if the key phrase in the reply was "tory austerity" ?

Fact is none of us will know how well we have all done until we count the cost and the bags at the end of the year. 

Even then we might find that individual countries have had absolutely no influence on a disease that has no respect for borders.

[Barbe bleu 823]

14 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 the idea that long term self isolation is the only solution is preposterous

So what are the others? 

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

9 minutes ago, T said:

No evidence that border controls effective given nature of disease.

No evidence that it isn't either, silly point really.

Plain fact is different countries have taken different approaches at different times and in different circumstances, nothing very surprising or controversial there.

Some countries have been much more successful than others in containing the virus and minimising the harm to their citizens than others - fact. Some countries have had economic and/or geographic and/or political advantages/disadvantages which have helped shaped the way they've responded.

There are very few direct comparions available but I think on any objective view the UK performance (so far) will be judged to be below par given our supposed economic, political and social standing relative to the rest of the world, and I think we are probably unique in being the only country in the world where the government's approach has been not just rubbished but effectively overruled by sports, entertainment and indeed a whole range of other private companies and charities - and not for grubby financial reasons either but because they believed (correctly) that the government's response has been insufficient and ineffective.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

20 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Even then we might find that individual countries have had absolutely no influence on a disease that has no respect for borders.

Indeed, and we may also find that if given sufficient training and a radical new diet that pigs can in fact fly.........🤣

And I'd be interested in your views as to how Singaporean culture has made them less susceptible to the virus.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Barbe bleu 823]

21 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Indeed, and we may also find that if given sufficient training and a radical new diet that pigs can in fact fly.........🤣

And I'd be interested in your views as to how Singaporean culture has made them less susceptible to the virus.

I was making the point that in a globalised world if we are to see this virus end it must end everywhere in the world.  It might not matter that country x has achieved local elimination if a visitor from country y brings it back.  In this light can we really say that local elimination has been a  success, or is what has been achieved deferred failure? 

I am not concluding that Singaporean culture has made that population more resilient to epidemic than a population that does not share the key values. I cannot as my knowledge of the culture and of this virus is too limited to allow me to do so.   You are, of  course, entitled to draw whatever conclusions you like on whatever evidential base you like.   

What I am doing is suggesting that culture might be a factor.   As might climate, geography, demographics, trade routes etc. 

You have concluded that the UK response has been a dismal failure. I am asking on what basis you draw this conclusion . I might agree with you, I might not but until you provide the evidence base I'll put your analysis in the 'an interesting thought' folder.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

23 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

So what are the others? 

 

Sorry to disappoint but T is the only person I've heard talk about a solution.

That's probably somewhat unfair as in reality he is only talking about minimising the damage, as indeed we are all. But unfortunately his 'solution' simply is not possible or practical for many people and may inflict greater damage on some, and his belief that we shouldn't worry about the powers that be messing things up and just concentrate on doing the right things ourselves is misguided IMO.

Strikes me in many ways that this is very comparable to climate change - there are a great many things that people can do and are doing themselves that have had a very definite positive effect. But whilst we have governments like the US and the UK in office our overall progess is significantly reduced in comparison to countries who have genuinely competent and commited governments trying actively to address these issues.

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I was making the point that in a globalised world if we are to see this virus end it must end everywhere in the world.  It might not matter that country x has achieved local elimination if a visitor from country y brings it back.  In this light can we really say that local elimination has been a  success, or is what has been achieved deferred failure? 

 

Over the long term I would agree with you but ultimately the virus is only going to 'ended' once we have had the time (1 or 2 years?) to develop effective vaccines and treatments.

Surely in the meantime the primary objective is to minimise the harm caused to individuals, public services and businesses around the world?

So if Singapore have successfully contained the number of cases to a very low number (and I think with zero deaths), which they have so far then I would say that has been a resounding success. Not that it is any guarantee that it won't re-appear but they set off with the same objective as the UK and so far it has worked for them whereas the UK failed.

Only time will tell whether they can maintain their success until vaccines or new treatments arrive to help us all but IMO it is still unquestionably a success and one that I'm sure we would all have been grateful for had it been achieved here.

[Essjayess 307]

Well, with 10 new deaths reported in England today, practically doubling the overall UK death toll, it should help concentrate the minds of all of , be it public, private, government or citizen.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Essjayess
spelling correction

[ricardo 7,385]

16 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Well, with 10 new deaths reported in England today, practically doubling the overall UK death toll, it should help concentrate the minds of all of , be it public, private, government or citizen.

We move into exponential lift off.

130 to 150 percent increase in every days numbers. Not a surprise they want to curtail testing. They have ignored the clear evidence from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.

Way behind the curve.

[ricardo 7,385]

1 hour ago, T said:

No evidence that border controls effective given 

Only if you ignore the evidence.

[T 190]

Scientific analysis is that border controls are not effective certainly not when it is slresdy in the community. The problem is the delays in the virus process. No doubt Singapore has more relative testing capacity which was brought in there and Hong Kong following sars. Human nature is that we take more action on risks that we perceive as near and recent rather than a proper rational risk analysis. That is why Asia is better prepared than European countries. These are also more controlled societies in my experience

Anyway for a far more informed discussion than here and you tubers I recommend the bbc sounds coronavirus podcast. Key take away for me is that the old need to be nice to the young   The old will be reliant on the young to comply with govt isolation recommendations  when it is likely that it will have limited medical   but significant social and economic impact on the young  Admitting and apologising for climate change and Brexit and xenophobia and islamophobia  might be a good start but I expect they would rather die than do that  

. We have all been sent home from work not because this will decimate our very young workforce but to restrict the spread to older people.  This is easy for us with modern IT but we also recognise it is important for the reputation on which we rely to be seen to do the right thing. We are all connected and it pays to think beyond your own short term direct interest. 

[Van wink 2,994]

A very significant graph imo showing the progress of infection in Asia as opposed to Europe. We are going for the bish bash bosh approach, behavioural scientists believe we don’t have the self discipline within society to conform to the more stringent controls being used successfully to flatten the curve in Asia. End result of that theory is lots more of us will die. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/containment-asia-working-people-learnt-sars/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_At9f4jbX5Ggl

Edited March 14, 2020 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 823]

47 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Over the long term I would agree with you but ultimately the virus is only going to 'ended' once we have had the time (1 or 2 years?) to develop effective vaccines and treatments.

Surely in the meantime the primary objective is to minimise the harm caused to individuals, public services and businesses around the world?

So if Singapore have successfully contained the number of cases to a very low number (and I think with zero deaths), which they have so far then I would say that has been a resounding success. Not that it is any guarantee that it won't re-appear but they set off with the same objective as the UK and so far it has worked for them whereas the UK failed.

Only time will tell whether they can maintain their success until vaccines or new treatments arrive to help us all but IMO it is still unquestionably a success and one that I'm sure we would all have been grateful for had it been achieved here.

Some fair comments here.

Singapore does seem to have done well in a thriving its short term goals.  Whether it proves to have been effective in the long run only time will tell.  The UK set out to stop it in its tracks and has failed to do so.    Again in the long run who knows what the aggregate implications will be. On a disaggrwgatr level 21 people have died with corona virus so to them absolutely the government/society etc has got it wrong.

The UK though is a very different place to Singapore and to suggest that the government is well behind the curve or its approach is worse than that adopted in a comparator  is, I think, unfounded at this stage.

I'm sorry if this seems like badgering but I really do have a pressure point when it comes to people starting with a conclusion and then selecting evidence that fits it (something we all do consciously or otherwise)

[ricardo 7,385]

19 minutes ago, Van wink said:

A very significant graph imo showing the progress of infection in Asia as opposed to Europe. We are going for the bish bash bosh approach, behavioural scientists believe we don’t have the self discipline within society to conform to the more stringent controls being used successfully to flatten the curve in Asia. End result of that theory is lots more of us will die. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/containment-asia-working-people-learnt-sars/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_At9f4jbX5Ggl

The virus doesn't  care about different societies cultural norms.

It requires only a willing host and a complacent society to nuture and spread it.

Edited March 14, 2020 by ricardo

[Barbe bleu 823]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The virus doesn't  care about different societies cultural norms.

No, it doesnt care.  Its debatable that a virus is even a living entity let alone being a sentient one. But cultural norms are a factor in its spread.

[Yellow Fever 3,781]

23 minutes ago, Van wink said:

A very significant graph imo showing the progress of infection in Asia as opposed to Europe. We are going for the bish bash bosh approach, behavioural scientists believe we don’t have the self discipline within society to conform to the more stringent controls being used successfully to flatten the curve in Asia. End result of that theory is lots more of us will die. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/containment-asia-working-people-learnt-sars/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_At9f4jbX5Ggl

This VW is my gripe. Johnson is not showing and leadership to take tough unpopular action to quell it. Not until it's too late anyway.

How on earth did we allow 60000+ at the gold cup? Madness.

He is being led not leading. Where is Gordon Brown (2008 crisis) when you need him!

[T 190]

Good article VW though I think their conclusion is that Asia behaviour is because of SARS. When you see people panic buy and stockpiling you wonder at their stupidity and ability to comply with safety. What part of their small Brain does not comprehend if you steal and stockpile hand sanitizer and soap there is more risk that other people won’t be able to use and increase the risk of spread to you. No one is closing supermarkets and there is plenty of availability if people just buy normally. Just highlights the problems of a a selfish UK society who can’t link we are all connected. 

[Herman 9,758]

Trump has just added the UK and Eire to his travel ban list.

[Van wink 2,994]

Here's the graph I referred to, didnt seem to appear in the link. A very stark difference between Europe and Asia resulting from different methods of dealing with the crisis. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

43 minutes ago, Herman said:

Trump has just added the UK and Eire to his travel ban list.

He really is a complete plank isn't he?

Still when we're saddled with a useless lump like Johnson I suppose there is some small consolation in knowing that there's a still a lot of people worse off  😀

Apparently he's also promised every American a free virus test - so far the US has managed 11,000 in total since the crisis started whilst South Korea have been doing 10,000 a day, so will be interesting to see him deliver that.....

Of course he continues to blame 'foreigners' - makes you wonder why he never got round to building that lovely wall he promised to keep them out 🤣

[Essjayess 307]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

A very significant graph imo showing the progress of infection in Asia as opposed to Europe. We are going for the bish bash bosh approach, behavioural scientists believe we don’t have the self discipline within society to conform to the more stringent controls being used successfully to flatten the curve in Asia. End result of that theory is lots more of us will die. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/containment-asia-working-people-learnt-sars/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_At9f4jbX5Ggl

A very significant graph?...utter tosh. It should say a very carefully selected graph. So Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong make up Asia? S. Korea, Japan and Taiwan in particular are straining at the leash and thats helped stabilise the numbers infected each day, but new cases and deaths still arrive each day there. But the real worry is that Nations like Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia etc, with huge populations are now experiencing accelerated rates of new cases each day, others like Thailand and Brunei are not far behind them.

Anybody can spurt out graphs from the selected coices they want to select...but really...its way, way to early to be saying one continent is doing better than another.  Remember, Coronavirus is untamed, it can make a mockery  now and some time into the future of any graphs  that humans care to show, selected or not.

[Van wink 2,994]

Thailand has 82 confirmed cases?

Indonesia 96 cases?

Malaysia 238?

Those are the latest figures I can find. You presumably have the data to show how there is an acceleration there and similar graphs to the ones I showed above to show that their figures are behaving more like Italy, Spain, France and UK.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Van wink

[sonyc 5,517]

First cases in Norfolk announced. 3 in King's Lynn. Hospital visits suspended.

[Hairy Canary 701]

Interesting discussion on 5 live this afternoon with the CMO.

interviewer put some figures to him to gauge a reaction.

66 million people live in Uk. Conservative estimate is that 50% of us will contract the virus meaning 30 million plus. 5% of these will need intensive care, equalling 1,500,000. Number of ITU beds in the Uk equals 4000 so that’s one ITU bed for every 250 people who will need one. Obviously they won’t all need ITU treatment at the same time but it is clear that we have no chance of providing what is needed. 
 

None of the figures were contradicted by the CMO.

 

I know many look at this as a political point and personally I have voted for parties that have wanted to increase NHS spending but I’m afraid there is no way of bridging a gap that wide. It at least sheds light on why the government strategy, such as it is, is to try to engineer a long shallow spike in the summer months

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Thailand has 82 confirmed cases?

Indonesia 96 cases?

Malaysia 238?

Those are the latest figures I can find. You presumably have the data to show how there is an acceleration there and similar graphs to the ones I showed above to show that their figures are behaving more like Italy, Spain, France and UK.

The graphs might show that hot countries are better able to contain the infection than cold ones.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

The graphs might show that hot countries are better able to contain the infection than cold ones.

But officials now believe that Spain could become worse than Italy. Fact is, so little is really known about this virus. The science is based on other virus that have caused epidemics. But this one just isn't copying the models.

[Van wink 2,994]

11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The graphs might show that hot countries are better able to contain the infection than cold ones.

Indeed they might. Do you think that’s the explanation?

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The graphs might show that hot countries are better able to contain the infection than cold ones.

But officials now believe that Spain could become worse than Italy. Fact is, so little is really known about this virus. The science is based on other virus that have caused epidemics. But this one just isn't copying the models.

Agreed KG, no two viruses are the same but there will be knowledge acquired by epidemiologist from studying many and various outbreaks which should give some general principles of how to contain it.