Wuhan coronavirus

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Thailand has 82 confirmed cases?

Indonesia 96 cases?

Malaysia 238?

Those are the latest figures I can find. You presumably have the data to show how there is an acceleration there and similar graphs to the ones I showed above to show that their figures are behaving more like Italy, Spain, France and UK.

Yep...its the new cases factor...of course if you check the UK stats from a week or two ago they would be far lower than right now. Ihave been  checking Worldometer and other  sites 20 times a day for the past  month or more. I will let Coronavirus  tell you how its going in those places in the next couple of weeks.

Things move on apace VW.. now theres 4 cases in Norfolk, 3 in Lynn and 1 in Norwich. The epicenter aint Asia, it aint Europe, its the whole dang planet.

[sonyc 5,491]

25 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Interesting discussion on 5 live this afternoon with the CMO.

interviewer put some figures to him to gauge a reaction.

66 million people live in Uk. Conservative estimate is that 50% of us will contract the virus meaning 30 million plus. 5% of these will need intensive care, equalling 1,500,000. Number of ITU beds in the Uk equals 4000 so that’s one ITU bed for every 250 people who will need one. Obviously they won’t all need ITU treatment at the same time but it is clear that we have no chance of providing what is needed. 
 

None of the figures were contradicted by the CMO.

 

I know many look at this as a political point and personally I have voted for parties that have wanted to increase NHS spending but I’m afraid there is no way of bridging a gap that wide. It at least sheds light on why the government strategy, such as it is, is to try to engineer a long shallow spike in the summer months

You cannot avoid being political though. Even Johnson knows his own party has under-invested in the NHS for a long while. Hence the huge election promises of new hospitals and latest budget. Yet it will take this to expose our national service. I think it's a disaster in the making but you pray it won't be (whatever your political persuasion). I want Johnson to be a success as a leader right now, desperately, he needs to be. That doesn't mean I trust him or his cohorts. Just that as leader we have no choice.

[Barbe bleu 814]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Indeed they might. Do you think that’s the explanation?

The explanation?  I don't think that there is a single explanation. 

 

 Do I believe that temperature and hours of daylight might play a role? Yes, i do. Can i be sure that it has a material effect? No, no more than I believe that the graphs you have produced are clear and unambiguous evidence that it's all boris's fault.

 

 

 

[sonyc 5,491]

1 minute ago, Essjayess said:

Yep...its the new cases factor...of course if you check the UK stats from a week or two ago they would be far lower than right now. Ihave been  checking Worldometer and other  sites 20 times a day for the past  month or more. I will let Coronavirus  tell you how its going in those places in the next couple of weeks.

Things move on apace VW.. now theres 4 cases in Norfolk, 3 in Lynn and 1 in Norwich. The epicenter aint Asia, it aint Europe, its the whole dang planet.

You'll have seen the factor of doubling numbers every 2.5 days.

[Van wink 2,994]

Just now, Essjayess said:

Yep...its the new cases factor...of course if you check the UK stats from a week or two ago they would be far lower than right now. Ihave been  checking Worldometer and other  sites 20 times a day for the past  month or more. I will let Coronavirus  tell you how its going in those places in the next couple of weeks.

Things move on apace VW.. now theres 4 cases in Norfolk, 3 in Lynn and 1 in Norwich. The epicenter aint Asia, it aint Europe, its the whole dang planet.

Yeh one at the N and N

i know it’s the whole dang planet EJ, it’s a pandemic. But the measures to tackle the outbreak have been significantly different in different countries, and it could well be that those that were unfortunate enough to have a big problem with SARS may be able to teach the others something.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The explanation?  I don't think that there is a single explanation. 

 

 Do I believe that temperature and hours of daylight might play a role? Yes, i do. Can i be sure that it has a material effect? No, no more than I believe that the graphs you have produced are clear and unambiguous evidence that it's all boris's fault.

 

 

 

Nobody has said it’s all Boris’s fault, what a foolish remark. But we must surely look around the world for lessons as to how best deal with this.

[Van wink 2,994]

“People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months, under a "wartime-style" mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days.

It is part of a series of measures being prepared by the prime minister, health secretary, chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser to prevent the health service from "falling over" and to save lives as Covid-19 becomes an epidemic in the UK.

Other measures already being planned include:

• the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
• the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
• temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
• emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
• the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.

According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong. It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.

They are deeply worried that some older people will simply die at home from neglect, after they are quarantined, so want to start the quarantine as late as possible - some time within the next five to 20 days.

The prime minister Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock are counting on neighbours and friends to rally round to make sure no one is neglected. "We are looking for a huge community effort," said a source.”

[Essjayess 307]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yeh one at the N and N

i know it’s the whole dang planet EJ, it’s a pandemic. But the measures to tackle the outbreak have been significantly different in different countries, and it could well be that those that were unfortunate enough to have a big problem with SARS may be able to teach the others something.

Now on some things you say there i totally agree with VW. My whole point about a newspaper  making a graph, very very early in the history of this Coronavirus and to at certain selected  places that up until now have done a decent job in stemming  back a huge pyramid peak or flattening it against other places that as yet have not, is very insignificant compared to what the picture will look like in 6 months...a year...etc etc. But on the point about nations that were close to the SARS outbreak, i would  also hope that their scientists and medical experts share their knowledge across the world, as maybe we could learn from their experiences and results. This should be a given with all nations experts that ever suffer disasters, pestilences and what have you...with maybe the exception of North Korea id imagine.

[Barbe bleu 814]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Nobody has said it’s all Boris’s fault, what a foolish remark. But we must surely look around the world for lessons as to how best deal with this.

This thread is full of criticisms of the UK government response.  

I am trying to add a bit of balance to the argument.  

Absolutely we should learn from others and these are great places to look at but the reduction to 'Singapore did this' or 'taiwan did that' isnt necessarily going to work.  

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

This thread is full of criticisms of the UK government response.  

I am trying to add a bit of balance to the argument.  

Absolutely we should learn from others and these are great places to look at but the reduction to 'Singapore did this' or 'taiwan did that' isnt necessarily going to work.  

If you read the piece I posted above you will see it’s generally supportive of what the government are doing, quoting a senior government source of course.

[Barbe bleu 814]

15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

If you read the piece I posted above you will see it’s generally supportive of what the government are doing, quoting a senior government source of course.

You have been generally quite balanced bit on either side of your post are others that are very critical of the UK approach. In time they may yet be proved correct, but not yet.

[Essjayess 307]

30 minutes ago, Van wink said:

“People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months, under a "wartime-style" mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days.

It is part of a series of measures being prepared by the prime minister, health secretary, chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser to prevent the health service from "falling over" and to save lives as Covid-19 becomes an epidemic in the UK.

Other measures already being planned include:

• the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
• the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
• temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
• emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
• the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.

According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong. It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.

They are deeply worried that some older people will simply die at home from neglect, after they are quarantined, so want to start the quarantine as late as possible - some time within the next five to 20 days.

The prime minister Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock are counting on neighbours and friends to rally round to make sure no one is neglected. "We are looking for a huge community effort," said a source.”

Hmm...i can understand  the point or at least the reasoning behind instructing the over 70s to stay at home for 4 months, considering  average age of patient deaths from this virus, but its how its worded..."in strict isolation" at home?..that feels like...stick gran or granpa in one solitary room and keep him / her there for 4 months. Thats some  dang decision to be made by families if it means what it says.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I think because the British public will never really accept what appear to be draconian methods or even the ultimate of troops on the streets, there is an acceptance of what the government suggested. But personally I think they relied too much on the science rather than instinct.

[JF 694]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

“People over 70 will be instructed by the government to stay in strict isolation at home or in care homes for four months, under a "wartime-style" mobilisation effort by the government likely to be enforced within the next 20 days.

It is part of a series of measures being prepared by the prime minister, health secretary, chief medical officer and chief scientific adviser to prevent the health service from "falling over" and to save lives as Covid-19 becomes an epidemic in the UK.

Other measures already being planned include:

• the forced requisitioning of hotels and other buildings as temporary hospitals;
• the requisitioning of private hospitals as emergency hospitals;
• temporary closure of pubs, bars and restaurants - some time after next weekend's ban on mass gatherings;
• emergency manufacture by several companies of respirators that would be necessary to keep alive those who become acutely ill;
• the closure of schools for perhaps a few weeks, but with skeleton staff kept on to provide childcare for key workers in the NHS and police.

According to a senior government source, the perception that ministers are reluctant to make difficult and costly decisions to battle the virus is wrong. It is simply that the chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance are waiting for the optimal time to force restrictions on our way of life that will be very painful.

They are deeply worried that some older people will simply die at home from neglect, after they are quarantined, so want to start the quarantine as late as possible - some time within the next five to 20 days.

The prime minister Boris Johnson and health secretary Matt Hancock are counting on neighbours and friends to rally round to make sure no one is neglected. "We are looking for a huge community effort," said a source.”

Might have missed it but where has this come from?

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

You have been generally quite balanced bit on either side of your post are others that are very critical of the UK approach. In time they may yet be proved correct, but not yet.

Maybe not to the standard required to convince you but I would suggest that having a Prime Minister who has been virtually invisible for the first couple of months of this crisis, who then comes out and makes his first substantive statement about our approach and strategy only to completely reverse his position just six or seven hours later is probably a fairly big clue as to who will eventually found to be correct.

Of course by that I don't mean posters on here but the many independent health professionals who have been saying very clearly that the UK has adopted the wrong approach - not all of them for sure but a very large majority of them.

 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

The NNUH has two wards ready to roll, they are on the button, BUT, with no cases as yet in Norfolk, these beds will soon be filled with sufferers from Essex and  Cambridgeshire,  the moment their ICU's are overstretched with daily queues lenghtening.

Norfolk beds are not for Norfolk patients in need alone, so when we are eventually be getting cases here, or visiting our hospital; for any other reason, we might find ourselves at the back of the queue and in danger of cross contamination in the hospital.

They will have have to prioritize according to age, with younger acute cases getting the treatment required and the over 60's being sacrificed.

I said it before, despite living in the 21st century, we are not invincible and this virus will change everything, societies, economies, demography, economies, globalisation and the lives of many millions. Forever!

Edited March 14, 2020 by nevermind, neoliberalism has had it
unfinished

[ricardo 7,345]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

This thread is full of criticisms of the UK government response.  

I am trying to add a bit of balance to the argument.  

Absolutely we should learn from others and these are great places to look at but the reduction to 'Singapore did this' or 'taiwan did that' isnt necessarily going to work.  

Seems to be working better than anywhere else doesn't  it.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

Good news, our politicians have decided to stop all gatherings of more than 500 people. It will take some time to reorganise the business within the House and its 600plus MP's, but it is sensible, especially as one or possibly two MP's are already been afflicted, potentially, by this virus. If they decide not to do themselves as they ask of  the public, then their efforts to garner trust from the wider public will be fruitless. They would be responsible for their actions and the public;s backlash to it.

Edited March 14, 2020 by nevermind, neoliberalism has had it
unfinished

[ricardo 7,345]

8 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

 

They will have have to prioritize according to age, with younger acute cases getting the treatment required and the over 60's being sacrificed.

Great news.

Bye bye all its been fun.👎

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

28 minutes ago, JF said:

Might have missed it but where has this come from?

The Torygraph would be my first guess 😀

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

They will have have to prioritize according to age, with younger acute cases getting the treatment required and the over 60's being sacrificed.

I'm not lying **** naked on on blooming cold altar for anyone.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

It takes some time to get one's mind around such thoughts, but if it means that the younger generation survives, which is not the indication from Italy, were the death rate is now 7.9% as of today, many ICU patients are in their twenties and thirties, then I'm ok with leaving this sordid crazy world, but it is not.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

bedtime for this grandfather, there is always tomorrow

[Hairy Canary 668]

36 minutes ago, JF said:

Might have missed it but where has this come from?

Robert Peston on ITV news

[ricardo 7,345]

6 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

bedtime for this grandfather, there is always tomorrow

Until there isn't😉

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, JF said:

Might have missed it but where has this come from?

Peston, who doesn’t always get it right, but there was a similar report on the BBC and of you see what’s happening in Italy Spain and France it shouldn’t come as any surprise

[Van wink 2,994]

30 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

It takes some time to get one's mind around such thoughts, but if it means that the younger generation survives, which is not the indication from Italy, were the death rate is now 7.9% as of today, many ICU patients are in their twenties and thirties, then I'm ok with leaving this sordid crazy world, but it is not.

More young people being treated in Italy now

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

Thailand has 82 confirmed cases?

Indonesia 96 cases?

Malaysia 238?

Those are the latest figures I can find. You presumably have the data to show how there is an acceleration there and similar graphs to the ones I showed above to show that their figures are behaving more like Italy, Spain, France and UK.

Thailand was one of the first countries after China to experience the Corona virus, and in the early days (week 1-2) was leading the charts for infections by country excluding China. So to follow the European model they should by now be experiencing huge numbers of infections and deaths - but they are not. Thailand is also a society where elderly people live within their extended families of several generations so it should therefore be seeing high rates of deaths, but it is not. I spoke to some people in Thailand this week and asked them what measures were being taken.

A work colleague here in Norwich has just returned from Singapore and is completing his self-isolation, and I chatted with him with his experience of Singapore. It's also worth noting that in Singapore the population densities are high with a lot of flat-dwellings and like Thailand a lot of elderly people live with their extended families - all conditions that would allow rapid spread of infection and high mortality rates - but this isn't happening.

So what is happening in these two countries is that there is a very high-level of temperature checking going on. If you walk into an apartment building, a department store, an office block or some public place your temperature will be checked. My work colleague said he was checked around ten times per day. Anyone experiencing a high temperature is then taken to a testing station for a fuller check, and if needs be they are then isolated. But for most people they continue with their normal daily routines. There is no lockdowns in these two countries.

There may be other factors at play that are keeping the numbers down. In both countries there is less personal body contact, in Thailand very little hand-shaking for example. Singapore being a small state, it's easier to manage public services and organise the population than say, the UK

Edited March 14, 2020 by Rock The Boat

[Essjayess 307]

Im sitting here alone, 3.30am on a Sunday morning in March, wife and son soundly wrapped up in bed asleep and me pondering....thinking football, and events...yes, events. What a completely crazy, bizarre and unreal 12 months its been, yet its real, not unreal.

This time last year our beloved club were slowly grinding their way, week in, week out to become top dogs in the Championship. Theresa May was stuck in the mud of Brexit with no whichway to turn, her days numbered. The Pink Un 3 year long Brexit topic was exhaustively long and still going nowhere despite endless cycles of opinionated thoughts.

Then by early Summer, City had clinched the Championship, Mrs. May was on her way out, eventually making way for Boris. He was busy trying to get us out of the EU before years end as City started a new season in the top league. A cruel injury list hampered and hurt what was already going to be a tough time, just as Boris to was finding it tough to get Brexit done..for both Boris and City the numbers and the points just were'nt there.

So...a December election, somewhat surreal, but not so surreal as to what was soon to follow. Who could possibly imagine, just 3 months after that election, Boris would be facing one of the toughest tasks...if not the toughest..any PM would have faced for a generation and more...and it wasnt even Brexit. He  got us to leave the EU...officially...City continued to hold up the rest of the Prem...then bam...from seemingly nowhere, we have all been plunged into a global pestilence that undoubtedly will change the world and not in anything good. How to sum up my thoughts at this moment in time?...Norwich City avoid relegation, thanks to a Chinese Virus......

The next few months, the whole globe will suffer terribly..but this is Norfolk, and its hardly begun. My love and warm regards to you all my fellow City comrades, may we all see each other on the other side.

[BroadstairsR 2,138]

"Thailand was one of the first countries after China to experience the Corona virus, and in the early days (week 1-2) was leading the charts for infections by country excluding China."

 

Thailand is run by a military coup who organised a sham democracy. They ban popular opposition parties and are notorious for fact-fiddling and keeping the truth from the public. Until recently they were still letting in Chines by the thousands for the sake of tourist money.

Hospital facilities in the NE of the country especially are poor. There is drought, famine and dengue fever to cope with.

There are also wet markets still allowed to function in Bkk.( Chatachutek (?)for one.)

Their figures are false, imo.

Singapore,however, is trustworthy.They are the most community minded citizens in the world and often self police.They will obey the rules to the letter. The Thais won't.  

However, I hope that you are correct about both countries and that there is something to be learned from stringent temperature monitoring. 

Edited March 15, 2020 by BroadstairsR