Wuhan coronavirus

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

If you look at the numbers coming out of  Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong you will see countries that took aggressive action early on have manage to drastically flatten the curve. 

The rest of the world, not so much.

I wonder how it will contrast to our governments "Crash and Burn" strategy ?

I see lots of experts are starting to have very serious doubts (and I'm starting to get commiseration emails from some of my asian friends - Japan & even China!

 

I quote

Dear XXX,

 Can imagine UK is in really terrible situation now.

Hope you, your family and friends are well and everything become fine.

 Best Regards,

XXX

Edited March 13, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Essjayess 307]

Hope things go well with you Surfer.  This is absolutely a global pestilence so we are all sailing in the same boat. Not that it means much after last nights  Boris  meeting but  todays  new regional list of 797  virus cases still have none in Norfolk, guess that means none in our local hospitals more importantly.

[Herman 9,756]

 

[Essjayess 307]

13 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I wonder how it will contrast to our governments "Crash and Burn" strategy ?

I see lots of experts are starting to have very serious doubts (and I'm starting to get commiseration emails from some of my asian friends - Japan & even China!

 

I quote

Dear XXX,

 Can imagine UK is in really terrible situation now.

Hope you, your family and friends are well and everything become fine.

 Best Regards,

XXX

No doubting YF...some nations in Asia have done wonders and must have worked hard under exceptional and trying conditions to stabilse and even decrease   amounts of daily new cases. Other nations in that part of the world are a bit more worrying if you check total cases / new cases..Malaysia 197 / 39, Indonesia 69 / 35, Philipines 64 / 12, Brunei 37 / 12. I sincerely hope they to can work hard in stabilising this awful virus.

Lovely to think your friends over there send  their wishes to you and your friends etc over here. Its a global family, we are all in this together.

[Surfer 1,547]

Thanks Essjayess   

I'm glad that I live in California, under a State Government that gives a damn, and who ignores the BS coming from the White House as much as it practically can. But for many other States, mainly "Confederate" southern ones, it's not so.   

However we have family in the UK and Netherlands and close friends that work in the travel industry with kids away at college, some of whom are studying in Europe. So the most appreciated thing would be some calm, avoiding panic and not turning this into a major catastrophe economically or from a healthcare point of view. I admit to being worried the governments and press are not up to this challenge, and social media and cable news isolationism / silos are going to make this much worse than it has to be. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Surfer

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

 Barbe bleu

I read it here. As yet the US has not given out any figures as to their person X, who ever had it first in the US, the hospital he was treated in or any other figures. China on the other hand acted fast and openly cooperated with the rest of the world.Today they are supplying emergency aid to Italy.

http://www.yourdestinationnow.com/2020/03/china-govt-spox-accuses-us-military-of.html

[Essjayess 307]

21 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Thanks Essjayess   

I'm glad that I live in California, under a State Government that gives a damn, and who ignore the BS coming out of the White House. 

However we have family in the UK and Netherlands and close friends that work in the travel industry with kids away at college, some of whom are studying in Europe. So the most appreciated thing would be some calm, avoiding panic and not turning this into a major catastrophe economically or from a healthcare point of view. I admit to being worried the governments and press are not up to this challenge, and social media and cable news isolationism / silos are going to make this much worse than it has to be. 

You are most welcome Surfer. No matter where we live, most who post here now have at least two  most important things in common, a love for Norwich City and a battle ahead in the next few months against this dreadful virus. As our beloved club look likely to have no matches in those next few months, then Coronavirus  becomes our most hated enemy and opponent. No matter what thoughts we all carry concerning our powers that be, i sincerely wish all of us get  thru this in one piece, keep each other light hearted possibly in  certain times of dismay and look forward to the day when the football resumes again.

[ricardo 7,384]

Total carnage in Italy now.

And people still worrying when football restarts

I expect we will be watching replays for a long time.

Edited March 13, 2020 by ricardo

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

4 hours ago, T said:

You can suppress this but not contain it   Ultimately the UK public voted for lower taxes and lower public health care. I’ve no doubt the NHS is struggling but this Is way beyond anything I can remember so it is always going to be difficult. Not that I’m a fan of the political situation in the UK

I don't think this is true - certainly Germany, France and the other continental countries never had any chance of containing it given the serious and totally uncontrolled outbreak in Italy and the complete freedom of movement between those countries.

But the UK as an island with completely controlled borders and an ample warning before any infections occured here definitely had the opportunity to contain. As I said originally, Singapore has managed it very successfully and Ricardo has also highlighted Taiwan and Hong Kong doing a much better job than our government.

Of course we can't get away from the fact that 'ultimately the UK public voted for lower taxes and lower public health care' although its pretty ironic that with our dysfunctional electoral system it was actually a minority of voters who voted for this and rather harsh that the majority of us who didn't vote for that will suffer equally for the short sightedness of the Tory party and voters. But I guess that's just the way it is is 21st century Britain and it's certainly not going to change any time soon.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

I see the old GBP is dropping still like a stone compared to the EURO and USD etc. - another 2% today it seems against the $.

$ 1.31 to 1.23 thereabouts in a few days. Rush to safety?  

€1.20 to 1.11.

Hmm.

[Upo 91]

I feel sorry for you British folks.

Elsewhere (outside Asia anyway) the governments are incompetent, reactionary, unnecessarily hopeless, and incremental to the point of negligence. But Britain is the only country in the world where the government says that the resulting fatalities of such reactionary incompetence is actually the goal. Sort of like, if I shoot you in the head, you can't die again. I believe this is the first case of a major government adopting a policy of assertive defeatism.

I don't know what the median age of Pinkun forumers is, but I'm guessing it tilts towards middle age and male. Well, gentlemen over 65 with, or over 70 without, underlying illnesses: You catch COVID-19 and NHS has run out of tubes to pump air into your disintegrating lungs, you're looking at less than a Russian-roulette chance of making it out of Boris Johnson's grand experiment alive.

Perhaps you should call your representatives to say that you'd like the government to not pull the plug on you just yet. It would be quite embarrassing for them if the policies that have worked in South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China would start working in European countries too. Why, you can almost see things starting to stabilize in Italy already.

You are in my prayers.

[Herman 9,756]

A tiny ray of light in the gloomiest of times.

 

[Surfer 1,547]

Not that this helps anyone, but to see these two - anti-justice in chief and grifteress in chief be in such close contact with a now known virus carrier does reinforce the idea that nature as Indians would say distributes Karma, and or as the Greeks would say punishes Hubris. 

I'm not sure why the entire US White House and Cabinet are not in self-isolation at this point in time. 

Edited March 13, 2020 by Surfer

[T 190]

Some of the Asian countries were better prepared after SARS than UK it seems clear. Human nature is they prepare better for something that they have closer experience of. The characteristics of Covid 19 make it difficult to contain. The UK undoubtedly done better on testing than US but not as well as some Asian countries. It has come to the point that it is so widespread and escalating that general testing is not viable anymore. 
 

ive experienced my first day of „lockdown“ today and work from home and the supermarkets were functioning fine so I think that aspect is the least of our worries. 
 

The UK does seem ro be the experiment for the herd strategy and I’m still fine with a policy based on science rather than populist fear.  Doing the right thing rather than the popular thing when it matters takes guts and I respect that 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

13 minutes ago, T said:

The UK does seem ro be the experiment for the herd strategy and I’m still fine with a policy based on science rather than populist fear.  Doing the right thing rather than the popular thing when it matters takes guts and I respect that 

That's all fine and good but do you believe that the many other (large majority of) countries that are following other policies are not also basing those policies on science?

The WHO, who one assumes have the best overall view, expertise and data seem to be saying very clearly that the UK approach is wrong and definitely less effective than the more interventionist measures and much greater level of testing being undertaken elsewhere.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

The UK does seem ro be the experiment for the herd strategy and I’m still fine with a policy based on science rather than populist fear.  Doing the right thing rather than the popular thing when it matters takes guts and I respect that 

Isn't that another assumption that Britain is still Great and that we have the finest minds and academics. Surely we are supposed to be the people of a free thinking democracy who do not believe everything we read in the papers.

Edited March 13, 2020 by keelansgrandad

[T 190]

I do think the UK is strong in medical science and has capabilities other countries do not have  

No doubt the standard protocol is to try to contain which the UK has followed. No doubt testing has been better than some and worse than others. In the UK it has been widespread so difficult. It has gone beyond that.now   The question is what is the most appropriate delay strategy. We’re beyond contain. There appears to be little science for closing school so that makes sense. Social distancing is now just about spreading the Peak to manage the load. I’ve locked down for the foreseeable future. If that lock down period can be minimised that makes sense. 

[Essjayess 307]

Watching a self filmed video of a Chinese man and wife, and their experiences in China in the past few months, with approval from the Chinese authorities i may add, on the BBC website did open up one thing i didnt know. Once China had closed down access to Wuhan and the surrounding area they had the luxury of bringing in masses of medical and health personnel from other parts of China to help in the process of healing Wuhan and supressing the virus.

Sadly this is not something most European nations can do, as the virus spread so rapidly to all corners of the continent. Its going to be one heck of a battle the next few months, with or without massive shutdowns of  society and lockdowns of nations.

[Barbe bleu 823]

5 minutes ago, T said:

 I’ve locked down for the foreseeable future. If that lock down period can be minimised that makes sense. 

This foreseeable future could be very long if you are hunkering down until every case on earth is cured.

 

 

 

[T 190]

Exactly. Which is why UK strategy of seeking to minimising stricter measures commensurate with flattening the curve makes senses as this is likely to go for a long time. I will fully comply with local protocol but fully intend to get on with life as far as possible while following medical advice. 

[Van wink 2,994]

The populist approach, (and maybe the correct one, only time will tell), would be to ban everything that moves.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

The populist approach, (and maybe the correct one, only time will tell), would be to ban everything that moves.

 

Unfortunately, that might well drive the economy into a 1929-style depression. This is just as big a risk as the virus itself.

[T 190]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51874084

Good explanation here. Your main risk is not out in the public but from family and friends. We have been sent home office because of a case at work but as was pointed out that is pointless unless you practice social distancing in your private life. So I’m curious to know what those so against the govt policy suggest is done to address their biggest threat of family and friends. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

12 hours ago, T said:

Exactly. Which is why UK strategy of seeking to minimising stricter measures commensurate with flattening the curve makes senses as this is likely to go for a long time. I will fully comply with local protocol but fully intend to get on with life as far as possible while following medical advice. 

I don't think you can accurately describe an approach which lasted less than a day as a 'strategy' - it was a typical Boris botch up and perhaps the only surprise was just how quickly it unravelled.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

3 hours ago, T said:

So I’m curious to know what those so against the govt policy suggest is done to address their biggest threat of family and friends. 

I'm certainly happy to have a go at that one. As someone who has two close family members working in hospitals I would like the Government to stop telling repeated and outright lies about the state of the NHS and provide the resources that are required, firstly to allow the staff to work safely and then perhaps they could move onto providing the resources to allow them to care properly for the rest of us.

They have have been promised to do this every year for four years now and they were lying every time, which is one of the reasons why the effort to contain the virus in the UK has failed - it started too late (because resources weren't available or the government didn't care?) and even when it did kick in we didn't do enough testing and tracing presumably for the same reasons.

[Barbe bleu 823]

58 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

They have have been promised to do this every year for four years now and they were lying every time, which is one of the reasons why the effort to contain the virus in the UK has failed - it started too late (because resources weren't available or the government didn't care?) and even when it did kick in we didn't do enough testing and tracing presumably for the same reasons.

The UK effort to contain the disease has failed.  As it has done in every country in Europe.  I would be interested to see the facts on which you draw your first conclusion.  Did we have less resources to conduct testing than our neighbours?   Could we have started testing any earlier?  Did we lag compared to others?

Perhaps also the failure to contain it will prove to be a blessing perhaps it is better than the disease progresses slowly over spring and summer  rather than disappears only to re emerge in winter with consequent implications.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

The threat to the economy of a depression is far more serious than the deaths of the elderly. If small businesses collapse they will never return and the knock-on effects could drive the world into poverty and global disruption on a massive scale. As a 66 year old with a heart condition, I am in a high-risk category but I would be prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice if I knew it meant we saved the economy going into meltdown. 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Rock The Boat

[T 190]

For sure the NHS is under resourced to cope with this but it would always be to some extent. And it was not only the choice of the govt but what the public voted for. For sure the UK should invest additional resources to build capacity for this. The UK at least benefits from a centrally coordinates approach rather than the ad hoc approach we see in other countries. 
 

My point is private measures are more important than public measures given how the disease spreads and  while I see unsubstantiated criticism of the govt i see no solutions from their critics on how they will address the bigger private risk. 

[T 190]

Indeed the only way to eliminate this is long term self isolation. I see plenty of people willing to risk the livelihoods of other people but not willing to undergo long term self isolation themselves. It simply isn’t viable. It is easy to criticise the govt but there are no nice easy solutions to this. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

The UK effort to contain the disease has failed.  As it has done in every country in Europe.  I would be interested to see the facts on which you draw your first conclusion.  Did we have less resources to conduct testing than our neighbours?   Could we have started testing any earlier?  Did we lag compared to others?

Perhaps also the failure to contain it will prove to be a blessing perhaps it is better than the disease progresses slowly over spring and summer  rather than disappears only to re emerge in winter with consequent implications.

Containment has failed throughout continental Europe for very clear and obvious reasons - a very serious and totally uncontrolled (indeed almost an untreated) outbreak in Italy combined with completely open movement across borders meant the neighbouring countries had no real chance of focusing on, identifying/testing and isolating/treating people entering their country who may have been carrying the virus.

We did have that opportunity by virtue of being an island and by having controlled and managed borders yet still we failed. As has now being pointed out many times, others with similar advantages and less warning than the UK have succeded or at least fared very significantly better than the UK.

I doubt that anyone is yet in a position to say conclusively why the UK has performed so poorly relative to other countries but it seems very likely IMO that our delayed response and our overall shortage of health resources must inevitably be two major factors.

The herd immunity idea that you mention, of letting it spread but slowly, is I think, admitted to be very 'experimental' even by its proponents. Which is not to say that it is definitely wrong but there appear to be a great many more external experts who say that it is the wrong approach and that effectively it is sacrificing the most vulnerable in our society in order to minimise the effect on the economy and the rest of us. Of course it may be pure co-incidence that for the last 10 years that has been exactly the approach of Tory austerity governments in most policy areas, but then again it may not....