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The Positive Brexit Thread

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All the economic arguments as to 'migration' from both left and right as to productivity gains give Johnson a nice fat zero out of ten. Gormless. A quick glance at Germany, France and indeed Italy and the USA prove his rhetoric to be false.  

Saw a comment elsewhere that summed up Johnson and his mantra.

"Nobody now believes him anyway."

Or perhaps....

"Boris Johnson blah blah blah."

 

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47 minutes ago, 1902 said:

I can't see how this works. The theory is that cheap migrant labour has for years undercut British wages, so just get rid of migrant labour and standards of living will be increased.

However without a corresponding increase in productivity, the only result of that that I can see will be increased inflation ... and business closures in the mid to long term as cost of labour goes up without increased margins to support it.

The issue in the UK was low investment... investment has been startling low for a number of years now. Inflationary pressure and the inevitable higher interest rates which will follow will cut this further. 

So the current situation looks to me like it will only reduce real wages, not increase them.

Is this a quote directly from Friedman or from Thatcher?

Edited by Barbe bleu

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1 hour ago, 1902 said:

The issue in the UK was low investment, and having cut ourselves off from one of our largest markets, investment has been startling low for a number of years now. Inflationary pressure and the inevitable higher interest rates which will follow will cut this further. 

So the current situation looks to me like it will only reduce real wages, not increase them.

And of course one of the recent drivers of low investment has been Brexit itself!

Why invest if you're going to be cut off or at best handicapped from selling in your largest and nearest export market.

Edited by Yellow Fever
Sorry - I think in effect I repeated you.

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53 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is this a quote directly from Friedman or from Thatcher?

I can see what you're driving at with that comment, and indeed it is pretty much a simple statement of free-market economics. But then, that rather is the problem with Johnson's illiterate economics. On the one hand he seems to want a free-market attitude to the economy and on the other hand he wants to interfere with it using the bunt tool of banning foreign labour and telling employers to "just get on with it". Simply repeating the mantra that he will elevate the UK into a "high wage, high skill" economy does no actual lifting, and it remains entirely obscure to virtually every single serious commentator on the economy how Johnson's approach is meant to work. Genuine Tory party supporters have done the party no favours at all by cheering Johnson's mythological economics (and very anti-Tory recklessness). Many of us applaud the aspiration to a high wage, high skill economy; but I suspect almost as many of us are appalled at Johnson's complete lack of a plausible strategy at how to achieve it. Sprinkling fairy dust may well get a Tory party conference hall salivating upon every word of Boris bluster, but it sure ain't going to work as an economic strategy.

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One obvious test of Boris's bluster is to compare his rhetoric about becoming a "high wage, high skill economy with the trade deals that have been done post brexit. Could any Boris fan here explain to me how the trade deal with Australia achieves that end? Common opinion of the experts is that it benefits Australia far more than the UK (by about 6 times, I've seen frequently suggested). It will seriously threaten the very survival of the UK's meat farmers (especially beef), and the sugar beet industry, and it will also open up the country to Australian workers. The Indian government have made very clear that any future prospect of a free trade deal is absolutely conditional upon allowing a massive increase in Indian nationals being able to emigrate and work in the UK. Nothing in Johnson's rhetoric squares with reality.

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2 hours ago, 1902 said:

I can't see how this works. The theory is that cheap migrant labour has for years undercut British wages, so just get rid of migrant labour and standards of living will be increased.

However without a corresponding increase in productivity, the only result of that that I can see will be increased inflation in the short term (especially where the supply of goods is artificially restricted by supply chain issues caused by both Brexit and the pandemic) and business closures in the mid to long term as cost of labour goes up without increased margins to support it.

The issue in the UK was low investment, and having cut ourselves off from one of our largest markets, investment has been startling low for a number of years now. Inflationary pressure and the inevitable higher interest rates which will follow will cut this further. 

So the current situation looks to me like it will only reduce real wages, not increase them.

Think all that is true other than I would quibble a little with the 'theory is that cheap migrant labour has for years undercut British wages' - this was certainly one of the much peddled Brexit myths but it has never been a theory supported by sensible economists. In fact I think @BigFish referred to a Bank of England study yesterday which concluded that immigration from the EU had reduced UK wages by 1p per hour!

As you say, the only result of Johnson's 'plan' ( 😂 a misnomer is a ever there was one, in reality hastily assembled schtik for the extremely gullible like SC 😂) is substantially higher inflation and a stagnating economy = in real terms, pay cuts for everyone bar Johnson's mates and funders.

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1 hour ago, horsefly said:

I can see what you're driving at with that comment, and indeed it is pretty much a simple statement of free-market economics. But then, that rather is the problem with Johnson's illiterate economics. 

I'm not sure that Boris really aspires to be literate at economics, certainly not in the way that Benn and Thatcher who (I have read...) faced off over this issue, or one very much like it, aspired to be. He doesn’t strike me as a particularly deep person.

I find the power of the brexit debate fascinating.  Whatever the rights and wrongs of the arguments there is an incongruity of 'the left' (inverted commmas deliberate and not meant to apply to any particular individual here) citing free market principles whereas 'the right'  are now putting themselves somewhere to the economic left of Jeremy Corbyn.

Perhaps it shows that we are at heart (to use a deliberate metaphor) all creatures of emotion and our rational minds are made to be flexible and subservient to our feelings?

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That said, if KG ever says 'thatcher got it right' I think the multiverse will implode, elvis will pop back into existence and RVW will nearly score from a snodgrass cross.

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Not seen this analysis before but it would seem to have been quite an important factor contributing to the crisis.

Exclusive: Government’s switch to greener fuel was ‘major factor’ behind petrol crisis

Petrol retailers were ‘emptying their tanks’ for the switchover to E10 fuel when garages were swiftly drained by panic buying

ByBill Gardner and Alex Clark7 October 2021 • 2:08pm
 

Vehicles queue to refill at a BP petrol station in Waltham AbbeyBy Sept 25 pumps across the country were empty, with average road fuel stocks reaching a daily low of 15 per cent fullCREDIT: Henry Nicholls

The Government’s switch to greener petrol last month was a “major factor” behind the fuel crisis that saw forecourts across the country run dry, industry chiefs have revealed.

Petrol retailers said they had already been “emptying their tanks as fast as we could” for the switchover to E10 fuel when garages were swiftly drained by a sudden surge in panic buying.

New government figures reveal that fuel deliveries to petrol stations remained steady over the summer and throughout most of September despite warnings of a lack of HGV drivers to keep supplies moving.

Yet the amount of spare fuel stored at forecourts fell sharply by up to a quarter after Sept 1, when the Government introduced greener E10 fuel as the standard unleaded petrol.

When panic buying began on Sept 24, garages across the country found they did not have enough in their storage tanks to keep up with demand.

Brian Madderson, the chairman of the Petrol Retailers Association, said the data showed that the fuel crisis had been an “unintended consequence” of the Government’s switch to greener petrol.

“For weeks we had been emptying our tanks of E5, the old fuel, as fast as we could to get ready for E10. We had all run our petrol stocks down,” Mr Madderson said.

“So when the panic buying started, many of our members ran out pretty quickly. Then the shortage of HGV drivers meant we couldn’t get supplies quickly enough.

“I don’t blame the Government particularly but the E10 switchover clearly had an unintended consequence: we couldn’t cope with the surge in demand.”

Placeholder image for youtube video: PVhxVIZXqAY

Ministers rolled out E10, which is blended with a minimum of 5.5 per cent biofuel, as the standard unleaded petrol from Sept 1. Previously the regular unleaded was E5, although E10 has been on sale for some time in the UK and many European countries. The move was an interim step to help the UK reach its target of net zero emissions by 2030.

Mr Madderson said some smaller petrol stations had been in the process of switching their storage facilities because E10’s higher ethanol content can burn through rubber.

“That can take time,” he said.

Many fuel retailers including Asda have opted to sell only E10 at their sites. BP has said only some sites will be selling E5, while 200 of Esso’s 1,200 petrol stations are no longer selling the old grade.

According to the figures released on Thursday by the Department for Business, Enterprise and Industrial Strategy, deliveries for road fuel remained steady throughout the summer, averaging around 16,000 litres of petrol and diesel per station each day from mid-June to the end of August.

This constant supply meant that pump stock levels hovered at 40 per cent full, at most rising or falling by one or two percentage points in the same period.

Yet from Sept 1 onwards, forecourts across the UK began to see a steady and pronounced decline in fuel stocks, even before the shortages burst into public attention. 

By Sept 16 – a week before panic-buying began – average stock levels had fallen from 40 per cent to 34 per cent. By Thursday Sept 23 – the day of a notorious leaked BP warning that supplies were running low due to a lack of HGV drivers – stock levels were already at 32 per cent.

London and the East of England in particular saw the sharpest pre-panic-buying declines, with stock levels falling by more more than a quarter between Sept 1 and Sept 23.

It was not until Friday, Sept 24 that the stock crisis snowballed, with demand more than doubling. Having remained constant throughout the summer, daily road fuel sales lept from around 15,000 litres per station in the week prior to Sept 24 to more than 35,000 on the Friday.

By Saturday, Sept 25, pumps across the country were empty, with average road fuel stocks reaching a daily low of 15 per cent full.

“Whilst average sales for the last four weeks as a whole were in line with a typical week before the first lockdown (which started March 23 2020), there was a significant change to sales for the five days starting from Friday 24 Sept,” the BEIS document said. “Sales within the sample were up 80 per cent on the Friday and remained substantially above average volumes until the middle of the following week when they began to trend back to normal levels.”

Edited by Van wink

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4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is this a quote directly from Friedman or from Thatcher?

What's important is what is the economic fallacy in that analysis?

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2 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Think all that is true other than I would quibble a little with the 'theory is that cheap migrant labour has for years undercut British wages' - this was certainly one of the much peddled Brexit myths but it has never been a theory supported by sensible economists. In fact I think @BigFish referred to a Bank of England study yesterday which concluded that immigration from the EU had reduced UK wages by 1p per hour!

As you say, the only result of Johnson's 'plan' ( 😂 a misnomer is a ever there was one, in reality hastily assembled schtik for the extremely gullible like SC 😂) is substantially higher inflation and a stagnating economy = in real terms, pay cuts for everyone bar Johnson's mates and funders.

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. I mean the theory of those who felt free movement was the issue.

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1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not sure that Boris really aspires to be literate at economics, certainly not in the way that Benn and Thatcher who (I have read...) faced off over this issue, or one very much like it, aspired to be. He doesn’t strike me as a particularly deep person.

I find the power of the brexit debate fascinating.  Whatever the rights and wrongs of the arguments there is an incongruity of 'the left' (inverted commmas deliberate and not meant to apply to any particular individual here) citing free market principles whereas 'the right'  are now putting themselves somewhere to the economic left of Jeremy Corbyn.

Perhaps it shows that we are at heart (to use a deliberate metaphor) all creatures of emotion and our rational minds are made to be flexible and subservient to our feelings?

I agree with much of that. But I would just add that the centre left, as opposed to the far left, have always accepted the idea of a mixed economy in which the free market principles fundamental to capitalism need to be focused and constrained by regulations consistent with the pursuit of wider social objectives. Thus, for the centre left there is always an inevitable tension between pure market interests and the establishment of regulations to serve the wider public's interests. The 2008 crash was a perfect example of the dire  consequences of allowing too much derugulation in the interests of the free market side of that equation. Getting that balance right is, of course, an extraordinarily difficult and complex thing to achieve, something that requires the persistent attention of the finest minds negotiating the ever-changing fortunes and requirements of the  economic, social, and political environments. The current post-brexit situation is probably the most complex economic/social/political environment this country has seen for many decades, and the only certainty I feel confident about presently is that Johnson's "joke and hope" approach to the problems we are facing is the very antithesis of what is so desperately needed in our leader.

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8 hours ago, Herman said:

I was watching a video on productivity first thing this morning and enjoying it. Brexit is turning me into some kind of monster. 

This was the one I was talking about. A good explainer from LG.

 

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10 minutes ago, Herman said:

This was the one I was talking about. A good explainer from LG.

 

Cheers Herman! That's an excellent explanation and demonstration of just why Johnson's claim that banning immigrant labour is the key to creating a high wage, high skilled, high productivity economy is utterly fallacious, representing the misapprehensions  of an extraordinarily ill-informed and lazy mind. Those on this site who have repeatedly spouted this same nonsense (Fen Canary et al) should watch an learn (they won't of course).

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3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not sure that Boris really aspires to be literate at economics, certainly not in the way that Benn and Thatcher who (I have read...) faced off over this issue, or one very much like it, aspired to be. He doesn’t strike me as a particularly deep person.

I find the power of the brexit debate fascinating.  Whatever the rights and wrongs of the arguments there is an incongruity of 'the left' (inverted commmas deliberate and not meant to apply to any particular individual here) citing free market principles whereas 'the right'  are now putting themselves somewhere to the economic left of Jeremy Corbyn.

Perhaps it shows that we are at heart (to use a deliberate metaphor) all creatures of emotion and our rational minds are made to be flexible and subservient to our feelings?

I'm with HF here.

The 'centre' be that left or right in the UK has always accepted a market economy and economic orthodoxy i.e. Blair and Brown and even Osborne. You can't fool the markets.

Currently in the UK politics it's only Johnson (and his rag-tag Tories) of the mainstream parties that have now left the planet and to quote HF ' Joke and Hope' as an excuse for their calamitous decisions. Call a spade a spade.

To try to paint the centre right or left as conveniently against free market principles to excuse Johnson's cartwheels strikes me as absurd. 

In fact I can't work out why any old school Tories are still in Johnson's F*** business, protectionist, sycophantic party. It's policies are indeed Bennite -  perhaps they should admit it to themselves and rebrand themselves with dark shade of red - a maroon oak tree or least all wear red noses. 

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

To try to paint the centre right or left as conveniently against free market principles to excuse Johnson's cartwheels strikes me as absurd. 

 

I'm not trying to excuse anyone and I'm  not going to try to predict, based on theory, the effect of brext when we can begin to judge on facts its long term impact in the relatively near future.

It was merely an observation that brexit creates such powerful emotions that people who happily voted tory for decades have now discovered the merits of the arguments made by the donkey jacket wearing  socialists they once held in distain, whereas people who can't say 'thatcher' without spitting on the ground are tacitly agreeing with a central part of her political ethos.

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1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not trying to excuse anyone and I'm  not going to try to predict, based on theory, the effect of brext when we can begin to judge on facts its long term impact in the relatively near future.

It was merely an observation that brexit creates such powerful emotions that people who happily voted tory for decades have now discovered the merits of the arguments made by the donkey jacket wearing  socialists they once held in distain, whereas people who can't say 'thatcher' without spitting on the ground are tacitly agreeing with a central part of her political ethos.

Yes and no. There are rational arguments, and there are irrational ones. Currently Johnson is clearly on the irrational side. 

As to Brexit, Intel's blunt decision / statement today tells you all you need to know about England's future.  Somewhere that was once famous.

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15 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

It was merely an observation that brexit creates such powerful emotions

Your comment of course rings true - it's an emotive issue and lies deep in the national psyche.

I wonder if (and Question Time gave us just a glimpse) people are beginning to realise what is happening?

Shortages, Irish border fears, NHS pressures, labour shortages, consumer price rises, less freedom to travel as easily, ...an Irish  passport holder in the UK has more freedoms than a UK passport holder in the UK. Quite a thing.

The mainstream press (take The Mail as an example) emblazons a headline that the French may "cancel Christmas" but if we ignore the xenophobic undertones (overtone?) what does "taking back control" actually mean if this is even theoretically possible? ... If we have willingly given up our ability to trade as freely as before, how can we be in a position to blame other countries? It's paradoxical. It's illogical.

Perhaps folk are beginning to see the wood for the trees? One can only hope.

Always easy to blame others. On this very thread there have been views expressed that have been racist or xenophobic about other countries in the EU. France often suffers the most in this respect. **

So whilst I can see the point you're making on strong feelings these are less to do with one's political stance (your Thatcher and donkey jacket socialist comments) and much more a fear of others, of foreigners, of perceived differences.

Even now (with 'Brexit done') this present government shows how populist it is by publicly criticising other countries, often incredibly cheaply. Very little diplomacy on display - the kind you might expect from a responsible government.**

Governments often provide a psychological narrative, a lead if you like, in national opinion. It has a broad parental role. This administration is looking hollow, vacuous and even appears lurching from one crisis to another. Covid and Brexit have been too much to handle for such a group of individuals as the ones we have in power.

As an aside I believe the Tory Conference was about them enjoying themselves. Their leader told them jokes so the faithful could feel better. They loved Johnson for it. They know things are grim. But I'm quite sure that conference was a bubble and is so at odds with the way people (from the left and the right), certainly the centre) feel about their country right now.

Edit ** only just read this piece this morning and I believe my two points above (**) align: 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/08/total-loss-of-confidence-franco-british-relations-plumb-new-depths?

 

Edited by sonyc
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26 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Your comment of course rings true - it's an emotive issue and lies deep in the national psyche.

I wonder if (and Question Time gave us just a glimpse) people are beginning to realise what is happening?

Shortages, Irish border fears, NHS pressures, labour shortages, consumer price rises, less freedom to travel as easily, ...an Irish  passport holder in the UK has more freedoms than a UK passport holder in the UK. Quite a thing.

The mainstream press (take The Mail as an example) emblazons a headline that the French may "cancel Christmas" but if we ignore the xenophobic undertones (overtone?) what does "taking back control" actually mean if this is even theoretically possible? ... If we have willingly given up our ability to trade as freely as before, how can we be in a position to blame other countries? It's paradoxical. It's illogical.

Perhaps folk are beginning to see the wood for the trees? One can only hope.

Always easy to blame others. On this very thread there have been views expressed that have been racist or xenophobic about other countries in the EU. France often suffers the most in this respect. 

So whilst I can see the point you're making on strong feelings these are less to do with one's political stance (your Thatcher and donkey jacket socialist comments) and much more a fear of others, of foreigners, of perceived differences.

Even now (with 'Brexit done') this present government shows how populist it is by publicly criticising other countries, often incredibly cheaply. Very little diplomacy on display - the kind you might expect from a responsible government.

Governments often provide a psychological narrative, a lead if you like, in national opinion. It has a broad parental role. This administration is looking hollow, vacuous and even appears lurching from one crisis to another. Covid and Brexit have been too much to handle for such a group of individuals as the ones we have in power.

As an aside I believe the Tory Conference was about them enjoying themselves. Their leader told them jokes so the faithful could feel better. They loved Johnson for it. They know things are grim. But I'm quite sure that conference was a bubble and is so at odds with the way people (from the left and the right), certainly the centre) feel about their country right now.

 

Quite agree. The Tories and Brexiteer's in particular are simply in denial as to the s h i t show they've unleashed and will be held everlastingly responsible for. Hence the false comparisons and lame excuses or juxtapositions with previous governments of any colour. They were at least broadly competent unlike this one.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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31 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Latest on the Banger War

EU come off Wurst😉

 

 

You telling porky’s?

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21 minutes ago, Herman said:

Are you guys still using the telegraph as a legitimate news source?? 😂

.... . .-. -- .- -. / .--. .-. . ..-. . .-. ... / .-. . -.. / ... .- ..- -.-. .

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Latest on the Banger War

EU come off Wurst😉

 

 

My goodness, I really thought this one would cause a blockade of Calais.

And I notice the twitterer was called Crisp whereas they are Potato Chips in the EU. 😠

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

.... . .-. -- .- -. / .--. .-. . ..-. . .-. ... / .-. . -.. / ... .- ..- -.-. .

 

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Latest on the Banger War

EU come off Wurst😉

 

 

Are they Johnson's porkies or just the Telegraphs?

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21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Are they Johnson's porkies or just the Telegraphs?

Free hot-dogs for everyone👍

No mustard for Labourites.😉

 

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