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Unofficial Official Match Thread.

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Now tell me it was a point earned not two needlessly surrendered. Matty Cash and Onel Hernandez, who between them account for 4 of the 6 goals scored, don't even appear among the top players by xG, all three of whom are ours. 

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26 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said:

image.thumb.png.3217a222a7f36c16e3066b02a064b83f.png

Now tell me it was a point earned not two needlessly surrendered. Matty Cash and Onel Hernandez, who between them account for 4 of the 6 goals scored, don't even appear among the top players by xG, all three of whom are ours. 

Can you link the site this came  from please 

Edited by JF

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9 hours ago, westcoastcanary said:

image.thumb.png.3217a222a7f36c16e3066b02a064b83f.png

Now tell me it was a point earned not two needlessly surrendered. Matty Cash and Onel Hernandez, who between them account for 4 of the 6 goals scored, don't even appear among the top players by xG, all three of whom are ours. 

So what this shows is that all this expected goals stuff is complete rubbish then

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7 hours ago, FenwayFrank said:

So what this shows is that all this expected goals stuff is complete rubbish then

No but what your comment confirms is that if a person misinterprets a(ny) statistic, they are likely to conclude the statistic is rubbish.

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...or that if you rely totally on stats, it's just as likely that your interpretation of them is misguided, thereby making them erroneous. ( sorry, swallowed a dictionary)

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17 hours ago, JF said:

Can you link the site this came  from please 

JF, you might also be interested in having a look at Mayhew's scatter graphics (go to the Visualisations dropdown and click on Scatters. The last update was December 10th, so, as of now, a few matches out of date).

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4 minutes ago, splendidrush said:

...or that if you rely totally on stats, it's just as likely that your interpretation of them is misguided, thereby making them erroneous. ( sorry, swallowed a dictionary)

So who's relying totally on stats? Does your being in Auckland mean you have to?

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We are halfway into the season some people are getting ahead of themselves.Just enjoy the ride ,it’s been brilliant watching City so far this season lets just see how far we can get.It could be much worse just look down the A47.

Spot on. I didn't see the game as Boxing Day is pishup and local rugby derby but believing we were losing 0-3 to drawing and then seeing the highlights, it is a great ride we are on. And that is all that matters.

46K at Sunderland because they are winning and the football is successful. Doesn't matter who you are playing or in what league, if it is entertaining and successful then why look for anything else?

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31 minutes ago, Trevor Hockey's Beard said:

Is Westcoastcanary Morty's doppleganger?

:classic_biggrin: You obviously missed my several run ins with Morty and anyway, I'm a great fan of LDC, what more proof do you want?.

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Forest came with a game plan to basically frustrate and waste time which I though was obvious from about 15 minutes in. Their keeper was superb. I suspect other teams will set up similarly.

Two of their goals came from our mistakes and at least one of those (Aarons) should not happen again. We missed Leitner and will do until his return, such is his influence when he plays. I agree Hernandez should start and thought last season he was looking good towards the end. January is going to be a hell of a month for us and the injuries are mounting up unfortunately, especially in defence and that is where we are going to be exploited/targeted over the next few games so no more mistakes needed.  It’s going to be a great game today.

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Statistics have a place in today's world, however there is only one stat that counts and that is goals, not possession, passes or even shots, it is purely and simply goals! Also it needs to be said that Aaron's consistently tries to get the ball down and¬†play / dribble out of defence, this is what makes him the great player / prospect that he is. I would much rather see this than smashing into row z, because of this it is possible that it will happen again.¬†Lets hope for another cracker today although I hope it is¬†done and dusted before the last few minutes as I have to get the 5.30 train home as my domestic manager double booked my early evening ūüėÄ COYY

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I agree Red Rufus. Playing the ball out of defence runs the risk of losing it in a dangerous situation but it's also a big part of our possession based game that's brought us so much success and is such a joy to watch. 

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I know we have quickened our passing game since last season but for me the joy is seeing a centre back bringing the ball out from the back and being confident of doing it. And the extra dimension it brings to our attack is liking having an extra forward. Aarons is a class player but a young man and he will become a really top player in the not too distant future. Nothing should stifle his rapid progress.

Long may they play that way. The risk and reward far outweighs anything else.

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13 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

I agree Red Rufus. Playing the ball out of defence runs the risk of losing it in a dangerous situation but it's also a big part of our possession based game that's brought us so much success and is such a joy to watch. 

But Nutty, playing the possession game, of which playing out from the back is a big part, doesn't mean you take unnecessary risks. Whatever style you adopt involves doing the right thing at the right time and avoiding doing the wrong thing at the wrong time. Teams like Man City are not at all averse to playing safe when they have to, not necessarily by booting it long, which gives away possession, but e.g. by putting the ball into the stand to allow themselves time to regroup, win the ball back, and play out when properly set up to do so.

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Just now, westcoastcanary said:

But Nutty, playing the possession game, of which playing out from the back is a big part, doesn't mean you take unnecessary risks. Whatever style you adopt involves doing the right thing at the right time and avoiding doing the wrong thing at the wrong time. Teams like Man City are not at all averse to playing safe when they have to, not necessarily by booting it long, which gives away possession, but e.g. by putting the ball into the stand to allow themselves time to regroup, win the ball back, and play out when properly set up to do so.

Agreed Westy. But Max Aarons hadn't played first team football for anyone before August. Some of that standard of decision making comes with experience. I was close to that tackle and you could see how devestated the lad was after they scored. It was great to see other players lift him and the experience of what happened should help him in the future.

But there will be other times when we lose the ball trying to play out of defence. Just like there's times when a hoof into touch will result in the other team scoring from the possession we gave them. 

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35 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Agreed Westy. But Max Aarons hadn't played first team football for anyone before August. Some of that standard of decision making comes with experience.

Yes but he has taken the same risk, trying to run the ball clear by dribbling across the corner of the penalty area, more than once and got away with it. Forest, though, pressed high in numbers and ramped up the risk. 

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21 minutes ago, westcoastcanary said:

Yes but he has taken the same risk, trying to run the ball clear by dribbling across the corner of the penalty area, more than once and got away with it. Forest, though, pressed high in numbers and ramped up the risk. 

But now you're suggesting he should never do it. I thought we were talking about the fact it was nearly half-time. I can't agree with this new point. I say, keep playing out MaxūüĎć

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West coast, what point are you actually trying to make? That a young player has cost us a goal? That Farke is wrong to play Aarons? That we shouldn't be blooding inexperienced Academy youngsters?

Out of interest, did your xG/XXL charts have us as second in the league over the half way point? Did you foresee Aarons/Cantwell playing such a major part?

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1 hour ago, Ian said:

West coast, what point are you actually trying to make? That a young player has cost us a goal? That Farke is wrong to play Aarons? That we shouldn't be blooding inexperienced Academy youngsters?

Out of interest, did your xG/XXL charts have us as second in the league over the half way point? Did you foresee Aarons/Cantwell playing such a major part?

No, no and no. My comments were in response to this from nutty:

"Playing the ball out of defence runs the risk of losing it in a dangerous situation but it's also a big part of our possession based game that's brought us so much success and is such a joy to watch".

My point was that, while playing the ball out of defence is indeed a big part of the possession-based game that has brought us success and is a joy to watch, insisting on playing out of defence (quote) "in dangerous situations" shouldn't be. Even the most talented and experienced exponents of the possession game, such as Guardiola's Man City, accept that there are times when you need to prioritise safety. The best possession game teams in the world do it and don't consider it an abandonment of principle!

Re. stats, your question betrays a misunderstanding. A statistic such as xG is descriptive not predictive (however much the bookies would like you to think otherwise); what looking at the stats and the various charts derived from them does, is¬†provide insight¬†into why the league table looks as it does. If, rather than looking for an answer to the question "Will Norwich be second in the table at the half way point?", you want an answer to¬†"What are Norwich doing which explains how they come to be second in the table at the half way point?" then stats can help you. (No doubt someone will now come along saying "What they're doing right is getting more points than anyone else except Leeds"¬†ūüôĄ)

Finally, no, I certainly didn't foresee, any more than anyone else apart perhaps from the coaching staff, Aarons and Cantwell playing such a major part. And actually, in Cantwell's case, I don't think DF really did either, because early on he said he had agonised over whether to keep faith with Cantwell for the upcoming game (can't now remember which it was). In the event he did, and has continued to do so ever since.

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3 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

But now you're suggesting he should never do it. I thought we were talking about the fact it was nearly half-time. I can't agree with this new point. I say, keep playing out MaxūüĎć

No I'm not suggesting he should never do it; the time to do it is when there's a relatively clear path infield which he can safely take. (The fact that it happened so near half-time was never in my thoughts actually.) 

Edited by westcoastcanary
Added last sentence.

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Seems like a lot of hot air coming from westcoast, the simple fact is that all 11 players are being asked to get the ball down and play all over the pitch and in doing so this will increase the chances of dispossession by the opposition. This is the trend that most teams are following in the top two divisions. When it comes off it is sweet on the eye, when it doesn't there will always be a risk of conceding goal scoring opportunities. The only time I see a hack into the stands is when it is a last ditch interception / tackle. It has been successful so far apart from the odd blip.......like yesterday! Personally, I am enjoying watching us play this way despite the obvious risks.

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