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It's Character Forming

Complacency on here

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I find this board puzzling.  Before the Villa game it was all gloom and doom.  But Wigan lose their game in hand and suddently it''s all threads about what to do in the summer, transfer activity, "now that we are safe"...

 

My problem is that after we play on Sunday, Wigan have two more games, so unless we win against WBA, Wigan will be 3 or 4 points behind us with 2 games to play - meaning our fate would be out of our hands at that point!

Now I agree that Wigan will probably lose to Arsenal, so as long as we get a point against WBA, we would then be safe.  Great.  But the key word their is "probably" - it''s a one-off game by a team who have plenty of experience in pulling out results at the end of the season (against an Arsenal side that can lose to anyone on their day).

 

How would we all feel if we draw against WBA and Wigan then sneak a win at Arsenal ?  Meaning a point against Villa on the final day would be enough for them to overhaul us if we lose at Man C (the GD would be in their favour if they win at Arsenal and we lose at Man C). (I''m not even getting into all the possibilities for Newcastle, Sunderland etc, and I really hope we don''t have to spend the final game at Man C checking latest scores from all the other games to see if someone else is slipping up).

 

So for me, while a point vs WBA may be enough,  if we want to ensure survival ourselves, it has got to be a win.  Not going suicidal but a positive attacking approach as we showed vs Reading, away at Sunderland etc.

 

As long as we give it a decent go on Sunday, that''s ok - we can''t guarantee a result.  What would frustrate me is if our players take the approach they seemed to have at Stoke that they were pretty much safe already.

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You have made a well reasoned post there, have to agree with all points you have made!

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The players won''t be complacent on Sunday, they were really up for the Villa game and this one will be the same.

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I must agree with the tone and sentiment of the OP. My worry is that if we lose against WBA (remember they won 3-0 at Southampton only recently) then all Wigan have to do is get 3 points from their last two games. Remember too that we were robbed away at Arsenal and had it not been for a bizarre last 5 minutes we would have gained 3 points. It would hardly be astounding if Wigan managed to gain a point or even all 3 at Arsenal. We really need the full 3 this weekend.

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I am still very concerned but a whole lot less than before Wigan lost at home to Swansea. We will be in peril if we lose to WBA, I very much doubt we will and with everything resting on this game if the players cannot before then there are serious questions to ask. we would all prefer a win a point could be enough if Wigan lose to arsenal and there is also the outside possibility that we have enough already

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Certainly if Villa Lose to Chelsea, it''d be nice to get it over and done with this weekend. I don''t want to underestimate the massive difference between a point and no points though.

Scenario if we get a point:

Newcastle must get at least a point out of QPR away (they have been useless away all year) and Arsenal at home (surely arsenal will be favourites there)

in addition, should Newcastle achieve this, Sunderland would also have to pick up a point out of a dogfight vs Southampton and a trip to the Britannia where Stoke have remembered how to win ugly. 2 losses and we go above them.

in addition to this, Wigan would have to get something from the Emarites and then a result vs Villa on the last day.

Should we lose to WBA then (barring a miracle at the Etihad) Sunderland can go to the beach, Newcastle can lose two by narrow margins and Wigan can rest easy at the Emarites knowing that if they fail to get the 3 points there (or even a point) they still have a home game to get the 3 points required.

In a nutshell, we win, we stay up, we draw, we probably will, we lose and we''d better start worrying.

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I understand and agree with everything you write, except perhaps the bit about it being out of our hands. If there is a ''possibility'' that Wigan can beat Arsenal (and I agree, there is) then surely you should afford us the same grace? In other words, there will still be a ''possibility'' we could win away to Man City (I know; you can get up off the floor now). It is not out of our hands until it is mathematically impossible to make up the ground without relying on another team to slip up.

I am praying for a comfortable NCFC win on Sunday to avoid a nerve-shredding final week.

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You could say it''s just Wigan losing their game in hand but everyone assumed Wigan would win that game in hand. Wigans'' squad is looking stretched and a quick trip to Arsenal after a tiring outing at Wembley will not do them any favours. And some might say there was a hysterical over-reaction to the Villa loss, magnified & multiplied by the Lambert factor. It''s not over yet and we could still go down. However, 2 games to go, it''s in our hands and Wigan have it all to do [and that might not be enough] and Newcastle aren''t out of it either. Oh, and the top v bottom clashes are all "alive" as the race for Champions League isn''t over yet. Except of course for Man City who should have the flip-flops on as they parade the FA Cup.

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[quote user="Chip20"]I understand and agree with everything you write, except perhaps the bit about it being out of our hands. If there is a ''possibility'' that Wigan can beat Arsenal (and I agree, there is) then surely you should afford us the same grace? In other words, there will still be a ''possibility'' we could win away to Man City (I know; you can get up off the floor now). It is not out of our hands until it is mathematically impossible to make up the ground without relying on another team to slip up. I am praying for a comfortable NCFC win on Sunday to avoid a nerve-shredding final week.[/quote]

 

I am also praying for a win on Sunday Chip !

 

I agree that rethinking the numbers, even if we lose Sunday we would still beat Man C and have 41 points; for Wigan to get to 41 points they''d have to win both games in hand, and it would come down to GD between us and them (ignoring everyone else) so in that sense it would still be in our hands.

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[quote user="Its Character Forming"]

I find this board puzzling.  Before the Villa game it was all gloom and doom.  But Wigan lose their game in hand and suddently it''s all threads about what to do in the summer, transfer activity, "now that we are safe"...

 

My problem is that after we play on Sunday, Wigan have two more games, so unless we win against WBA, Wigan will be 3 or 4 points behind us with 2 games to play - meaning our fate would be out of our hands at that point!

Now I agree that Wigan will probably lose to Arsenal, so as long as we get a point against WBA, we would then be safe.  Great.  But the key word their is "probably" - it''s a one-off game by a team who have plenty of experience in pulling out results at the end of the season (against an Arsenal side that can lose to anyone on their day).

 

How would we all feel if we draw against WBA and Wigan then sneak a win at Arsenal ?  Meaning a point against Villa on the final day would be enough for them to overhaul us if we lose at Man C (the GD would be in their favour if they win at Arsenal and we lose at Man C). (I''m not even getting into all the possibilities for Newcastle, Sunderland etc, and I really hope we don''t have to spend the final game at Man C checking latest scores from all the other games to see if someone else is slipping up).

 

So for me, while a point vs WBA may be enough,  if we want to ensure survival ourselves, it has got to be a win.  Not going suicidal but a positive attacking approach as we showed vs Reading, away at Sunderland etc.

 

As long as we give it a decent go on Sunday, that''s ok - we can''t guarantee a result.  What would frustrate me is if our players take the approach they seemed to have at Stoke that they were pretty much safe already.

[/quote]

 

Nonsense yet again from you! 

 

You are desperate in every thread you post to proclaim that it is or it will be out of our hands.  Why???[:^)]

 

You are correct in pointing out that after we play on Sunday Wigan will have 2 games left.  What you do fail to mention and rather relevant to the matter at hand, is that we will still have 1 game left!  Therefore whatever happens on Sunday, it is still in our hands.  Even in the worst case scenario, if we lose on Sunday and Wigan win at Arsenal on Tuesday we''d be level on points going into the final game.


You also fail to mention Newcastle and Sunderland in your, "it''s out of our hands" proclamation!

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I agree about the complacency. My own feeling is that the best we can hope for against the Baggies is a draw, but I am not confident with their players returning.

 

I hope that we do not try to defend and catch WBA on the break. This will not get the crowd going, and the team need the crowd behind them.

 

It''s going to be tough, even if Newcastle, Sunderland and Wigan have at least one very difficult game like us. Although Wigan will need four point to get above us, they may need as little as 3, if we pick up no more points. There is little difference in present goal differences, and we have to go to Manchester!

 

We shall need a little bit of luck on Sunday and crowd roaring us on.

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Add in the the baggies are a bit of a bogey team and have won one their last 3 visits to FCR things could get uncomfortable.   They are excellent on the break so we need to keep some discipline and cant afford to give away space deep in the middle like we did on Sat - they will exploit that area.

 

I think I read somewhere we have conceeded more goals from distance than any other team - absolutely no surprise in that.

 

0-0 likely but can see a tense and thrilling 2-2

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If Ruddy is back that will help. Not been convinced by Bunn''s positioning and decisiveness.  We have to hope WBA are already heading for the beach as they are a good side and the defeat there started our poor Christmas run. I''d take a draw as I cannot see Wigan getting a bean against the Arse.

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Well judging from their forums the Baggies supporters seem to be confident that they''re going to get all three points. In their justification they draw attention to an excellent away result at Southampton and a pleasing performance at Man City. Let''s not also forget that they have real goal threats in Lukaku and Long. Who are our threats? It''s been done to death, but we don''t really have one this season. I was elated in mid-week at the Wigan defeat and am feeling more positive about our chances of staying up but I think it''s right to draw attention to the fact that there''s no guarantee of even a point on Sunday. WBA sit in 8th place and we sit near the bottom for good reason.

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Yes despite losing at Man City their stats were impressive. I think they had more shots on goal than Citeh.
There is no pressure on them so I would expect them to play expansively. Could be an open game - which is probably the last thing team Hooton want. 
We will need to be right at it if we are to get anything.
OTBC

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[quote user="Chip20"]I understand and agree with everything you write, except perhaps the bit about it being out of our hands. If there is a ''possibility'' that Wigan can beat Arsenal (and I agree, there is) then surely you should afford us the same grace? In other words, there will still be a ''possibility'' we could win away to Man City (I know; you can get up off the floor now). It is not out of our hands until it is mathematically impossible to make up the ground without relying on another team to slip up. I am praying for a comfortable NCFC win on Sunday to avoid a nerve-shredding final week.[/quote]

There is far more chance of Wigan getting a point or more at Arsenal than us getting the same at Man City and the main reason is that Wigan attack and can score goals whereas we defend and cannot score. 

The OP is correct but is only repeating what I said after the Wigan defeat about my worries of complacency and Hughton''s happiness with draws.  

We must go for the win against WBA. My worry is that we are drawing with 10 minutes to go and Hughton decides to settle for that as he expects Wigan to lose at Arsenal as most supporters do. That is a very dangerous strategy and could be our downfall, but would not surprise me at all.   

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Yeah but, if we go into the last game needing a win, Hughton won''t have the opportunity to play for a draw will he? With nothing to lose, do you not think we have the quality (setting aside the tactics, which I have covered above) to trouble Citeh as much as Wign have the quality to trouble Arsenal?

I do agree with you that we would be in a far more comfortable position with a win than a draw against WBA. What would you say, though, if Hughton, sensing blood in the final ten minutes, urges his players forward, Hoolahan or similar gets dispossessed around their penalty box and they break for what transpires to be a winning goal?

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I would agree with the OP''s main point that a lot of discussion since Wigan/Swansea has begun with the words "assuming we stay up".The RVW signing has dangled this vision of a new dynamic Norwich that''s easy to get carried away with because it is a far more attractive proposition than facing up to the reality of the current drab, struggling Norwich we have seen lose to Stoke, Wigan and Villa. I don''t blame fans for daydreaming a bit to protect themselves from the reality of a very tough and emotionally gruelling game against WBA.But if the players are in this frame of mind too, we are in big, big trouble come Sunday. It''s going to be emotional.

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