Still Positive but looking like Norwich,Villa and Reading for the 3rd Relegation Spot

[Yorkshire Canary 118]

QPR and Wigan are looking increasingly likely to be cut adrift. Weall know Wigan in particular have the ability to turn it around in the last few games but they show few signs of putting a run together, theloss of Moses has hit them hard. QPR are falling further behind rather than looking like geting out of it. Reading are in the best form by far , but are still 6 points behind. Villa got that imortant winyesterday and have the strikers to score the gals that we seem to find elusive at the moment. Set against that a very weak defence. We have become very hard to beat again but inall honesty dont seem able to buy a win. We could easily only pick up 1 point in the next 3 games by which time the gap will have probably closed to  a very nervy handful of points. We are due a tight win, possibly when we least expect it and with the crucial home games against Reading and Villa the future is in our hands, if we throw it away there is noone else to blame. At home at least we need to try 2 strikers up front if Holt is fit. All that saidi aggree with others that we probablyonly need another 7 - 9 points to stay up, but without at least one win  in the near future that couldtake a long time to reach the target. Everton are inthe cup at the weekend and we need to take advantage of the weeks rest and be prepared to throw the kitchen sink at them in the next league game

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

Your title is a contradiction YC. That''s anything but positive.

 

I had forgotten about Everton''s involvement in the F.A. Cup. This could be significant and I hope they win their tie as this might take their eye off the ball with regards to league performance. They might need a replay or pick up a niggle or two. We now need any crumb going after all.

 

Both Wigan and Reading are still in the Cup as well and, in their respective positions, I view this as disadvantageous.

 

The Luton debacle may well turn out for the better for us after all, especially with the team re-charging in the warmth of Dubai.

[Morisons Prozac 0]

West Ham and Fulham must be involved as well, their form is as shocking as ours. Southampton look like yheyll pull out but you can never be sure

[mrs miggins 0]

Reading, QPR, Southampton, Wigan, Villa. These teams are worse than us, and we''re in a terrible run of form which I think we will get out of.

[Jim Smith 2,610]

We will probably just scrape enough points to stay up by virtue of grinding our bore draws at home to Southampton, Villa, Reading, Swansea and West Brom but its going to be nervy and in my view far more nervy than it should have been.

Its not so much the results that are annoying me at the moment. Had we gone for it and been denied by a string of fine saves by the Fulham keeper than I can live with a point at home. The biggest frustration by far for me though was that they were very clearly content with a draw and that was very apparent shortly after half time. Same with Newcastle a few weeks ago. two teams, not really hurting us, not really positing that much of a threat to us and yet on both occasions we were completely unwilling or unable to take the bull by the horns and try and take the 3 points. Any team from here on in who plays for a draw at Carrow Road will get one because we will not go for it and it will just end in a dull stalemate.

We were talking about this in the pub post match on Saturday and the general consensu was still give Hughton until next season before really judging our style of play because this is most likely a means to an end to keep us up this season. I have to say though i am far from convinced that is the case and that such a hugely conservative manager will suddenly throw off the shackles next season. At the moment I am genuinely bored with watching my team to the extent that i am actually half querying whether i can be bothered with the Everton game. Of course I will go in the end but its really come to something when I am so bored by watching my own team that I am considering missing games I have had pencilled into my diary for months (I don;t get to quite as many as i used to due to family commitments so when I do go am usually bang up for it) and if I am feeling like that then there must surely be plenty of others who do as well. Mcnally needs to take note and he and Hughton need to be very careful that a combination of dull tedious football and rising ticket prices don;t start to undo all the good work of the last few years.

[ricardo 8,034]

No, it isn''t.I am tired of making this argument so I won''t go into it again. There are plenty of threads where its all been laid out in black and white.3 of the bottom 5 will go down.Norwich are not in the bottom 5Ergo Norwich won''t go down.

[Tim Dawson 0]

Ricardo, i enjoy yr match reports and you are a wise owl who has witnessed many canary seasons, but surely you cant not be slightly worried we are in a relegation dogfight? 95 has been mentioned on here, could anyone have predicted at xmas when Gunn did his ankle that we would have gone down?

Its naivety to think we arent involved, i just cant see a win at the moment, and no im not a troll or doom and gloom merchant !!

[a1canary 0]

I can''t see a win from the team we have been putting out but you''re not accounting for our two new signings Tim. I really believe they will be the difference between us staying up and going down. Recent results/performances have been dire, dismal, dour affairs devoid of flair and attacking intent. We are in desperate need of an injection of attacking energy and intent. And we have two players who are absolutely buzzing to have got their first moves to the Premier League after having dreamt about and played for such a move for many many years. For them, it''s like the start of the season having just been promoted and they are buzzing with all the energy we need to give the team a boost.

One of them will score in the next game or two, give us the shot in the arm we need, and drag us over the finish line. That''s how it plays out in my head anyway!!!

[Tim Dawson 0]

a1canary no-one will be happier than me if you are right, Kamara looks a livewire

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Tim Dawson"]Ricardo, i enjoy yr match reports and you are a wise owl who has witnessed many canary seasons, but surely you cant not be slightly worried we are in a relegation dogfight? 95 has been mentioned on here, could anyone have predicted at xmas when Gunn did his ankle that we would have gone down?

Its naivety to think we arent involved, i just cant see a win at the moment, and no im not a troll or doom and gloom merchant !![/quote]No I am not the slightest bit worried.I wasn''t worried when we had 3 points after 7 games and I didn''t get carried away when we had a 10 game unbeaten run. Before the season started I remarked that this would be a hard fight but that we would be o.k. I did the BBC predictor before the season started trying to be as realistic as possible and came up with 43 points. At no stage have I been more than 3 points out either way. After the home draw with West Ham we were at -2 and that''s as far as I have been out on the negative side. After the draw at Everton we were +3 and that''s as far as I have been out on the positive side. At the moment we are exactly where I thought we would be on 29 points. The remaining 12 games I have forecast as 3 wins 5 draws and 4 defeats, that''s 14 more points equaling 43 points. Even losing the next 2 games only puts us on -1 so I still wouldn''t be concerned.There were unexpected wins (Arsenal &Man U at home) and unexpected defeats (West Ham away) and so it will be in the remaining games but the overall picture will remain pretty much the same. We have lost only 9 games and look pretty solid in defence. Relegated teams lose about 20 games, do we look like losing 11 of 12?The lowest number of loses ever for a relegated team is 15. Do we even look like losing another 6?Lets look at the other teams.Reading have 23 points and have Man City and Liverpool at home, Man U, Arsenal and Everton away. Not much there you would think. The remaining 7 games include cut-throat games with Villa, Southampton, Wigan and QPR. If they win all those then the others all lose. It requires an enormous amount of wishful thinking to find enough points for safety IMO.QPR you can forget although they could prove a spoiler in their games against the other relegation candidates. If they make up 12 points on us in the remaining games I will run round CR in my underpants pulling Snowy the cat on a golden chariot.Villa have Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool at home United, Arsenal and Stoke away. There might be the odd surprise but there doesn''t look like a bumper haul of points there. They have to go to Reading and Wigan and come to CR.  Their next 2 games are at Arsenal and home to Man City. Lose both and its a point and a half a game for safety( ie winning every other game). Does anybody see that happening?Southampton, doing well at the moment but no good run goes on forever as City have recently demonstrated. 9 of their 12 remaining games are against teams above them in the table. To date they have only beaten one team above them in the table.Wigan, always capable of an upset but having 3 games against the bottom 4 any gain will be at someone else''s expense. They entertain Spurs and Liverpool and have trips to Man City and Arsenal where the picked up unexpected points last year but do we think lightening is going to strike in the same place this season? Not me, never write them off but pegging back 8 points plus goal difference on us is 25-1 in my book.I haven''t even mentioned Sunderland, Newcastle or West Ham but if you see us in danger you have to include them also. For City to go down it would require very poor home form against some very beatable opponents. It is always possible to arrange results on the predictor to get us into the bottom 3 but looking at it logically and dispassionately you need to manipulate an awful lot of results to make it happen.Stop worrying, we will still be in the Premier League next season.

[Tim Dawson 0]

Wow that was a reasoned response thanks Ricardo, i guess you are right and im maybe worrying too much, indeed a wise owl.

[Nuff Said 5,972]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Tim Dawson"]Ricardo, i enjoy yr match reports and you are a wise owl who has witnessed many canary seasons, but surely you cant not be slightly worried we are in a relegation dogfight? 95 has been mentioned on here, could anyone have predicted at xmas when Gunn did his ankle that we would have gone down?

Its naivety to think we arent involved, i just cant see a win at the moment, and no im not a troll or doom and gloom merchant !![/quote]No I am not the slightest bit worried.I wasn''t worried when we had 3 points after 7 games and I didn''t get carried away when we had a 10 game unbeaten run. Before the season started I remarked that this would be a hard fight but that we would be o.k. I did the BBC predictor before the season started trying to be as realistic as possible and came up with 43 points. At no stage have I been more than 3 points out either way. After the home draw with West Ham we were at -2 and that''s as far as I have been out on the negative side. After the draw at Everton we were +3 and that''s as far as I have been out on the positive side. At the moment we are exactly where I thought we would be on 29 points. The remaining 12 games I have forecast as 3 wins 5 draws and 4 defeats, that''s 14 more points equaling 43 points. Even losing the next 2 games only puts us on -1 so I still wouldn''t be concerned.There were unexpected wins (Arsenal &Man U at home) and unexpected defeats (West Ham away) and so it will be in the remaining games but the overall picture will remain pretty much the same. We have lost only 9 games and look pretty solid in defence. Relegated teams lose about 20 games, do we look like losing 11 of 12?The lowest number of loses ever for a relegated team is 15. Do we even look like losing another 6?Lets look at the other teams.Reading have 23 points and have Man City and Liverpool at home, Man U, Arsenal and Everton away. Not much there you would think. The remaining 7 games include cut-throat games with Villa, Southampton, Wigan and QPR. If they win all those then the others all lose. It requires an enormous amount of wishful thinking to find enough points for safety IMO.QPR you can forget although they could prove a spoiler in their games against the other relegation candidates. If they make up 12 points on us in the remaining games I will run round CR in my underpants pulling Snowy the cat on a golden chariot.Villa have Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool at home United, Arsenal and Stoke away. There might be the odd surprise but there doesn''t look like a bumper haul of points there. They have to go to Reading and Wigan and come to CR.  Their next 2 games are at Arsenal and home to Man City. Lose both and its a point and a half a game for safety( ie winning every other game). Does anybody see that happening?Southampton, doing well at the moment but no good run goes on forever as City have recently demonstrated. 9 of their 12 remaining games are against teams above them in the table. To date they have only beaten one team above them in the table.Wigan, always capable of an upset but having 3 games against the bottom 4 any gain will be at someone else''s expense. They entertain Spurs and Liverpool and have trips to Man City and Arsenal where the picked up unexpected points last year but do we think lightening is going to strike in the same place this season? Not me, never write them off but pegging back 8 points plus goal difference on us is 25-1 in my book.I haven''t even mentioned Sunderland, Newcastle or West Ham but if you see us in danger you have to include them also. For City to go down it would require very poor home form against some very beatable opponents. It is always possible to arrange results on the predictor to get us into the bottom 3 but looking at it logically and dispassionately you need to manipulate an awful lot of results to make it happen.Stop worrying, we will still be in the Premier League next season.[/quote]Quality.Pete, how about making this a sticky and then us happy clappers can simply refer the less confident amoung us to it, instead of making the same points over and over again.

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Tim Dawson"]Wow that was a reasoned response thanks Ricardo, i guess you are right and im maybe worrying too much, indeed a wise owl.[/quote]In addition Tim, you would be needing 3 of those five teams to come past us before relegation beckons. I can be persuaded that one might and at a very big push even possibly two.But three! Nah, Snowy would have kittens before that happened.[;)]

[Tim Dawson 0]

I may have to buy you a Peroni for calming my nerves ;)

[Lets be aving you! 0]

"QPR you can forget although they could prove a spoiler in their games against the other relegation candidates. If they make up 12 points on us in the remaining games I will run round CR in my underpants pulling Snowy the cat on a golden chariot."

 

Any chance you could combine this with some juggling?

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Lets be aving you"]

"QPR you can forget although they could prove a spoiler in their games against the other relegation candidates. If they make up 12 points on us in the remaining games I will run round CR in my underpants pulling Snowy the cat on a golden chariot."

 

Any chance you could combine this with some juggling?

[/quote]Sorry, I don''t do multi-tasking LOL.[;)]

[Bill 1,788]

Well reasoned post Ricardo

 

We beat Wigan in December, putting us 10 points clear of a relegation place

 

9 games later, after a pretty dire run the bottom club is still 6 points behind us 

 

if you had told anyone that after picking up only 4 points out of 27 we would still be well clear of relegation with six clubs below us and three above with only one point more I doubt you have been believed

 

it requires all clubs to constantly win to move them all above us, this doesn''t happen as the evidence shows

 

so maybe a few ''City fans'' might stop behaving like this

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6wok7g7do

 

 

 

 

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="City1st"]

Well reasoned post Ricardo

 

We beat Wigan in December, putting us 10 points clear of a relegation place

 

9 games later, after a pretty dire run the bottom club is still 6 points behind us 

 

if you had told anyone that after picking up only 4 points out of 27 we would still be well clear of relegation with six clubs below us and three above with only one point more I doubt you have been believed

 

it requires all clubs to constantly win to move them all above us, this doesn''t happen as the evidence shows

 

so maybe a few ''City fans'' might stop behaving like this

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR6wok7g7do

 

 

 

 

[/quote]In the 9 matches since Wigan we are 3 points down on what I expected pre-season. They were a difficult set of matches but we are now coming into a much more profitable patch of fixtures.We should get beyond 40 points without much difficulty and although lots of wierd things might happen, it will take an extraordinary set of circumstances to be facing a trip to The Etihad needing points to survive.

[York Canary 29]

My biggest worry at the start of the season was the period from New Year to early Feb as we had very tough games lined up. That 10 match unbeaten run basically saw us through the worst of it and now we''re without a win in 9, but also 3 undefeated and still not losing points to teams below us. We''re sitting quite pretty at the moment and a win is surely on the way somewhere. As you say, even if we lose the next 2 we''re still likely to be in a strong position and with a gap to the bottom teams and easier games to come. I think Becchio and Kei could give us a bit of a spark again.

12pts clear of the bottom club, 8pts clear of 19th and 6pts clear of 18th.

5pts clear of 17th too with a much better goal diff.

 

 

[York Canary 29]

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Tim Dawson"]Ricardo, i enjoy yr match reports and you are a wise owl who has witnessed many canary seasons, but surely you cant not be slightly worried we are in a relegation dogfight? 95 has been mentioned on here, could anyone have predicted at xmas when Gunn did his ankle that we would have gone down? Its naivety to think we arent involved, i just cant see a win at the moment, and no im not a troll or doom and gloom merchant !![/quote]

No I am not the slightest bit worried.I wasn''t worried when we had 3 points after 7 games and I didn''t get carried away when we had a 10 game unbeaten run. Before the season started I remarked that this would be a hard fight but that we would be o.k.

I did the BBC predictor before the season started trying to be as realistic as possible and came up with 43 points. At no stage have I been more than 3 points out either way. After the home draw with West Ham we were at -2 and that''s as far as I have been out on the negative side. After the draw at Everton we were +3 and that''s as far as I have been out on the positive side. At the moment we are exactly where I thought we would be on 29 points. The remaining 12 games I have forecast as 3 wins 5 draws and 4 defeats, that''s 14 more points equaling 43 points. Even losing the next 2 games only puts us on -1 so I still wouldn''t be concerned.

There were unexpected wins (Arsenal &Man U at home) and unexpected defeats (West Ham away) and so it will be in the remaining games but the overall picture will remain pretty much the same.

We have lost only 9 games and look pretty solid in defence. Relegated teams lose about 20 games, do we look like losing 11 of 12?

The lowest number of loses ever for a relegated team is 15. Do we even look like losing another 6?

Lets look at the other teams.

Reading have 23 points and have Man City and Liverpool at home, Man U, Arsenal and Everton away. Not much there you would think. The remaining 7 games include cut-throat games with Villa, Southampton, Wigan and QPR. If they win all those then the others all lose. It requires an enormous amount of wishful thinking to find enough points for safety IMO.

QPR you can forget although they could prove a spoiler in their games against the other relegation candidates. If they make up 12 points on us in the remaining games I will run round CR in my underpants pulling Snowy the cat on a golden chariot.

Villa have Man City, Chelsea and Liverpool at home United, Arsenal and Stoke away. There might be the odd surprise but there doesn''t look like a bumper haul of points there. They have to go to Reading and Wigan and come to CR.  Their next 2 games are at Arsenal and home to Man City. Lose both and its a point and a half a game for safety( ie winning every other game). Does anybody see that happening?

Southampton, doing well at the moment but no good run goes on forever as City have recently demonstrated. 9 of their 12 remaining games are against teams above them in the table. To date they have only beaten one team above them in the table.

Wigan, always capable of an upset but having 3 games against the bottom 4 any gain will be at someone else''s expense. They entertain Spurs and Liverpool and have trips to Man City and Arsenal where the picked up unexpected points last year but do we think lightening is going to strike in the same place this season? Not me, never write them off but pegging back 8 points plus goal difference on us is 25-1 in my book.

I haven''t even mentioned Sunderland, Newcastle or West Ham but if you see us in danger you have to include them also. For City to go down it would require very poor home form against some very beatable opponents. It is always possible to arrange results on the predictor to get us into the bottom 3 but looking at it logically and dispassionately you need to manipulate an awful lot of results to make it happen.

Stop worrying, we will still be in the Premier League next season.
[/quote]

Bow to the grandmaster

[canaryfan68 0]

Ricardo -  We are in 14th position at present, in December we were in 7th and with a couple of months left to go I don''t see us holding level with our position. People have to face up to the fact we are in freefall as 1 goal in 5 games and 2 points in 24 aren''t good statistics however you want to wrap it up.

More worrying is the fact that others below us are gaining momentum and winning so with those statistics mentioned previously I don''t see it being that comfortable for much longer.

[sgncfc 1,330]

I don''t post on this site very often anymore because of the ignorant, mind-numbing stupidity of so many of the regulars. So how refreshing to read something which actually makes sense. There is no chance of us being relegated.

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="canaryfan68"]

Ricardo -  We are in 14th position at present, in December we were in 7th and with a couple of months left to go I don''t see us holding level with our position. People have to face up to the fact we are in freefall as 1 goal in 5 games and 2 points in 24 aren''t good statistics however you want to wrap it up.

More worrying is the fact that others below us are gaining momentum and winning so with those statistics mentioned previously I don''t see it being that comfortable for much longer.

[/quote]You can''t look at it over 5 games, there will be a vast difference depending on the quality of teams played plus some have played each other. You need a much bigger base before drawing any sensible conclusions. We''ve all played 26 games, look at the season in two 13 game halvesNorwich   15   14S''hmpton  11   16QPR          4   13Wigan       14    7Villa          10   14Reading      9   13Now where are all those teams that are doing so much better than we are? Yes Southampton have gained 2 points on us over the 2nd third of the season, nobody else has.It is easy to be blinded by little 5 game segments but in the totality of the season they don''t reflect any meaningful reality. Yes we have only scored once in the last 4 league games but you omit the fact that we have also only conceded once in the last 4 league games. In no way can this be described as "free-fall". We have averaged a point a game when we probably need only .75 points a game.Employ a little logic, it might stop you wetting the bed.

[York Canary 29]

[quote user="canaryfan68"]

Ricardo -  We are in 14th position at present, in December we were in 7th and with a couple of months left to go I don''t see us holding level with our position. People have to face up to the fact we are in freefall as 1 goal in 5 games and 2 points in 24 aren''t good statistics however you want to wrap it up.

More worrying is the fact that others below us are gaining momentum and winning so with those statistics mentioned previously I don''t see it being that comfortable for much longer.

[/quote]

And after 7 games we were in the bottom 3. Peaks and troughs remember. We''ve been steady at around 12th-14th for a while now.

 

As for the teams below us gaining momentum...

QPR have not won in the last 5 games (4pts gained)

Wigan have not won in the last 5 games (3pts gained)

Villa have won 1 in the last 5 games (5pts gained)

Southampton have won 1 in the last 5 games (6pts gained)

 

That''s 4 of the 6 teams below us that are hardly flying

 

Look at some of the teams just above..

Fulham have 1 win in the last 5 games (5pts gained)

West Ham have 1 win in the last 5 games (4pts gained)

Stoke have 1 win in the last 5 games (4pts gained)

West Brom have no wins in the last 5 games (1pt in the last 6 games!)

 

We have gained 4pts in our last 5 games - similar to those above

 

 

 

 

 

 

[shefcanary 2,955]

And look at the quality of entertainment currently being dished out by Liverlose and the Boing-boings right now.  People should compare that to our match on Saturday!

 

As Ricardo so well points out; sure we are struggling both for points and entertainment, but there again so are a lot of others.  If we should win our next two games (I know what chance is there of that - well as Ricardo says anuthing can happen) we could be back up to 7th!

[Badger 2,745]

Brilliant Ricardo - thanks for this!

[lake district canary 4,831]

[quote user="sgncfc"]

I don''t post on this site very often anymore because of the ignorant, mind-numbing stupidity of so many of the regulars. So how refreshing to read something which actually makes sense. There is no chance of us being relegated.

[/quote]

Sorry, your post is incorrect.  There is a chance we could be relegated.   We have to play well and pick up points to stay in the division.  It doesn''t just happen.   Hopefully, we will carry on picking up points, but its not a given.   But to be positive - we''re in a good position compared to the clubs below us.