Rickys early relegation prediction.

ricardo · November 20, 2012

You will be glad to hear Nigel, that after much analysis and discussion

with Snowy the Cat, Ricardo is now prepared to call it that City will

not be relegated this season.In 20 seasons of the Premier League

61 teams have been relegated (4 in 94/95 due to reduction in number of

clubs). Of those 61 subsequently relegated clubs 51, ( 84%) had averaged

a point a game or less after 12 matches played.In half of those

20 seasons all 3 subsequently relegated clubs had averaged less than a

point a game after 12 matches and in the other 10 seasons, 2 out of 3

were relegated.The only teams with more than a point a game average after 12 games but were subsequently relegated were:-92/93 Middsboro 16 points94/95 Norwich 19 points96/97 Middsboro 13 points97/98 Palace 15 points98/99 Charlton 15 points00/01 Man City 14 points07/08 Reading 13 points08/09 Middsboro 17 points09/10 Hull City 16 points10/11 Blackpool 14 pointsPoints to consider:-1. People

often say that there is always a team that drops into the relegation

positions late on. This is not born out by the facts. 84% of relegated

teams have accumulated only 12 points or less after 12 games. 2. The bookies are offering 7/4 City will be relegated but the true odds are better than 8-1.3. History says that it is a statistical certainty that 2 teams from Wigan, Villa, Southampton, Reading, QPR. will be relegated and that it is an even money shot that all three relegated teams will come from this five.

Nuff Said · November 20, 2012

On the one hand there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

On the other there is the irrefutable Snowy. So it must be true.

Gingerpele · November 20, 2012

We all know Snowy knows a thing or two about our club :) Better than Paul the Octopus, thats for sure!

I agree with you anyway, we won''t go down. I never did think we''d go down. Didn''t think we''d go down last season from the day we secured promotion, didn''t think we''d go down when Lambert left, when Holt handed in a transfer request, when we lost 5-0 to Fulham. Never a doubt. But then i''m a blind optimist.

On a slightly more realist note, now it seems very unlikely we''ll go down. Unless an injury crisis were to occur, does anyone think Barnett, Fox and Tierney would keep the team as solid as Bassong, Tettey and Garrido? Probably not, and its probably why the latter three have replaced the former. We might not be scoring as many, but we don''t need to. To win games last season you always felt like we needed to score 2 or 3, and we did, we kept 3 clean sheets, in two of them we scored 2 anyway and the other was a draw. We''ve kept 5 already winning us 11 points. We had 6 1-1 draws last season, failing to keep a clean sheet in those games lost us 12 points, other games like Wolves away, Blackburn at home and more conceding when we didn''t need to lost us points. And we often didn''t look like scoring more than one or two, which we needed to win games.

It may not be quite as pretty this season (although we still attack plenty), but since Arsenal we have always looked like we would get something from the game and I am confidant that will continue.

a1canary · November 20, 2012

Ha, a statistical certainty? I don''t like the sound of that! Presumably that just means something that has never happened before? Like a team bottom at Christmas not being relegated. Until WBA that is. Also interesting to remember the team to be relegated with the MOST points after 12 games. Don''t we remember THAT!

No, on that basis alone I want 25 points by January before i''m comfortable!

nutty nigel · November 20, 2012

I started a thread on here at the beginning of October because the bookies made us odds on favourites to go down. The value bet at the time was QPR at 100/30. Now QPR are odds on and we are 2/1.

Like Rickyyyy I don''t think we will be relegated. But there''s a long way to go before we can feel safe. QPR have a massive job to stay up though.

ricardo · November 20, 2012

[quote user="a1canary"]Ha, a statistical certainty? I don''t like the sound of that! Presumably that just means something that has never happened before? Like a team bottom at Christmas not being relegated. Until WBA that is. Also interesting to remember the team to be relegated with the MOST points after 12 games. Don''t we remember THAT!

No, on that basis alone I want 25 points by January before i''m comfortable![/quote]

I was waiting for someone to spot that.However its only a 16% chance of that happening again.As far as I''m concerned Snowy has spoken so all we have to worry about is what to spend the £75 million on in season 2014/15.[;)]

a1canary · November 20, 2012

Sorry to be the miserable one! But I love your and Snowy''s optimism!

Even if I don''t share it just yet! 16% still too much for me. If I had a 16% chance of winning the lottery, I''d be buying tickets every day!

PurpleCanary · November 20, 2012

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="a1canary"]Ha, a statistical certainty? I don''t like the sound of that! Presumably that just means something that has never happened before? Like a team bottom at Christmas not being relegated. Until WBA that is. Also interesting to remember the team to be relegated with the MOST points after 12 games. Don''t we remember THAT! No, on that basis alone I want 25 points by January before i''m comfortable![/quote]

I was waiting for someone to spot that.

However its only a 16% chance of that happening again.

As far as I''m concerned Snowy has spoken so all we have to worry about is what to spend the £75 million on in season 2014/15.[;)]
[/quote]

I don''t think we quite get that much back in the Championship after we''ve been relegated next season, ricardo...[;)]

newyorkcanary · November 21, 2012

I feel pretty good too. As far as January, if we could get Garrido permanently that would be just fine with me. No need for new blood if it means overpaying.

Bill · November 21, 2012

"If I had a 16% chance of winning the lottery, I''d be buying tickets every day! "

not if you had to buy 16% of the tickets sold

BlyBlyBabes · November 21, 2012

Well, there''s two tabby alley cats making the devil of a racket outside my bedroom window!

Anybody know what that means for our clubs fortunes ''cos I''m just about to go for a bucket of water.........................!

OTBC

ROBFLECK · November 21, 2012

Interesting read this thread and I don''t think we''ll go down either...but I am more a game per game person myself...

It's Character Forming · November 21, 2012

Good thread, but as has been pointed out the slump we had in 94/95 from such a good position means I would never take it for granted that we''re going to survive.

The other thing that worries me this year is looking around the bottom half of the table for the relegation candidates. Reading and Southampton are both improving after bad starts. QPR must change their manager before too long, and remember what happened to Sunderland last season when they brought in a new manager. You''d never want to be up against Wigan to avoid relegation, they are so experienced at escaping. With Villa, either they''ll start to improve or if they stay in the drop zone for long, they''ll also probably change their manager.

So all the bottom teams have potential to improve - which is why I''m encouraged that Hughton''s comments make it clear he isn''t complacent at all. The important thing is that we keep grinding out points week in, week out, and if we can keep on with anything like our current form we''ll be fine.

a1canary · November 21, 2012

One thing i would be almost certain of in my own mind is that if Villa sack Lambert they will go down. He is the only manager around who can see through the transformation he has started to the end of the season without them being relegated. Unless they bought in Guardiola or someone! What they have started there - a total rebuild whilst struggling in the premier league - is not a task they can hand to another manager part way through.

At QPR meanwhile, i fear the complete opposite. I think what Lambert is doing at Villa is slowly taking shape, whereas whatever it is Hughes has in mind for QPR clearly isn''t working!

I even wonder if this Redknapp/Ukraine nonsense is just an act to get QPR moving. Expect Hughes to be out before the weekend if that''s the case. I read that Redknapp wants to remain based on the south coast which means a London club is the only possibility for him - his reaction on MotD suggested to me he was at least potentially interested.

Yelloow Since 72 · November 21, 2012

I''m content with the feeling that City''s chances of survival are hugely improved after Saturday. My question to Ricky is whether Snowy is showing any excitement about the upcoming Everton match?. C''mon Snowy, we need you!

ricardo · November 21, 2012

[quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]I''m content with the feeling that City''s chances of survival are hugely improved after Saturday. My question to Ricky is whether Snowy is showing any excitement about the upcoming Everton match?. C''mon Snowy, we need you![/quote]

He came in this morning covered on oil but I''m not sure how to interpret that one. He also gave his toy mouse a thorough thrashing which I thought might be an encouraging sign.

ricardo · November 21, 2012

[quote user="Its Character Forming"]

Good thread, but as has been pointed out the slump we had in 94/95 from such a good position means I would never take it for granted that we''re going to survive.

The other thing that worries me this year is looking around the bottom half of the table for the relegation candidates. Reading and Southampton are both improving after bad starts. QPR must change their manager before too long, and remember what happened to Sunderland last season when they brought in a new manager. You''d never want to be up against Wigan to avoid relegation, they are so experienced at escaping. With Villa, either they''ll start to improve or if they stay in the drop zone for long, they''ll also probably change their manager.

So all the bottom teams have potential to improve - which is why I''m encouraged that Hughton''s comments make it clear he isn''t complacent at all. The important thing is that we keep grinding out points week in, week out, and if we can keep on with anything like our current form we''ll be fine.

[/quote]But 20 years of Premier League history says that they all won''t. There is a 100% probability that 2 of those 5 will be relegated and even money for 3 from 5.Yes there is a small chance that one team outside the present bottom 5 will drop into a relegation spot but that probability is now 10-1 for Norwich City. That''s why I feel fairly comfortable with my prediction.

Shack Attack · November 22, 2012

[quote user="a1canary"]

I even wonder if this Redknapp/Ukraine nonsense is just an act to get QPR moving. Expect Hughes to be out before the weekend if that''s the case. I read that Redknapp wants to remain based on the south coast which means a London club is the only possibility for him - his reaction on MotD suggested to me he was at least potentially interested.[/quote]I must admit that the same thought crossed my mind. It just seems such a random suggestion that there must be an ulterior motive behind it. Having said that I am not convinced that Redknapp would be a great appointment for QPR. Are the underperforming ''stars'' such as Julio Cesar, Bosingwa, Cisse and Granero going to be any more likely to respect and listen to Redknapp (a man with a very modest level of managerial success despite what his mates in the media might tell us) than they are Mark Hughes? He''ll have plenty of cash to spend in the window but unless he can turn things around prior to then they are going to find themselves cut adrift.I think the reason that a some people were/are more concerned about relegation this year is because the idea was being pushed over the summer that the Premier League was that much stronger this year. You had lost two of the poorest top flight teams I have seen for many years in Wolves and Blackburn and Bolton who had been declining for some time since their glory days under Big Sam. QPR had stayed up which many thought was a bad thing as they would surely improve if the owner kept chucking money in. Villa had poached our manager so would surely improve. The teams coming up seemed either very similar models to us and Swansea from last year (Reading and Southampton) or big spenders (West Ham). It seemed that we might face more of a struggle this season as not only had the league seemingly improved but we had also lost our manager.However twelve games in and it appears that our concerns about an overall improvement in the quality of the league were unfounded. The QPR project becomes more farcical by the game, Lamber quite possibly misjudged just how poor Villa were and Reading and Southampton share the enthusiasm that all promoted teams have but seem to lack the belief that us and Swansea had last year. Plus there might just be a couple of replacements for Blackburn and Bolton for the ''established Premier League team who will struggle'' in Sunderland and Stoke. Even at the top there seems to be a slight regression with Man City seemingly standing still, Chelsea playing without a striker, Man Utd having no midfield and Arsenal struggling post-RVP. Liverpool are in transition, Newcastle are struggling and Spurs look as if they are still coming to terms with Redknapp''s departure and the ideas of their new manager. Who has really improved since last year? Everton and West Brom. And you can make a case for us and Swansea. Other than that the Premier League does not feel (sorry for the lack of stats [;)]) any stronger than last year. We''ll be fine.

Gingerpele · November 22, 2012

QPR can''t afford Redknapp...

They can''t afford to buy a load of new players, and who really thinks Redknapp is going to suddenly change and not want to spend more money than available on a bunch of players? They aren''t going to be able to shift half the rubbish they''ve bought in, the other half are under performing. Redknapp isn''t the answer.

It's Character Forming · November 22, 2012

[quote user="ricardo"][quote user="Its Character Forming"]

Good thread, but as has been pointed out the slump we had in 94/95 from such a good position means I would never take it for granted that we''re going to survive.

The other thing that worries me this year is looking around the bottom half of the table for the relegation candidates. Reading and Southampton are both improving after bad starts. QPR must change their manager before too long, and remember what happened to Sunderland last season when they brought in a new manager. You''d never want to be up against Wigan to avoid relegation, they are so experienced at escaping. With Villa, either they''ll start to improve or if they stay in the drop zone for long, they''ll also probably change their manager.

So all the bottom teams have potential to improve - which is why I''m encouraged that Hughton''s comments make it clear he isn''t complacent at all. The important thing is that we keep grinding out points week in, week out, and if we can keep on with anything like our current form we''ll be fine.

[/quote]But 20 years of Premier League history says that they all won''t. There is a 100% probability that 2 of those 5 will be relegated and even money for 3 from 5.Yes there is a small chance that one team outside the present bottom 5 will drop into a relegation spot but that probability is now 10-1 for Norwich City. That''s why I feel fairly comfortable with my prediction.[/quote]

It''s a fair point and my head agrees. My heart still worries about the 94/95 precedent and won''t relax until we''re getting close to 40 points with 3 or preferably 5 teams adrift of us at the bottom.

paul moy · November 23, 2012

With Harry Redknapp rumoured to be taking over on Sunday at QPR (Talksport) perhaps it may well be worth revisiting predictions very soon. [:D]

Hairy Canary · November 23, 2012

[quote user="ricardo"]

3. History says that it is a statistical certainty that 2 teams from Wigan, Villa, Southampton, Reading, QPR. will be relegated and that it is an even money shot that all three relegated teams will come from this five.

[/quote]

Love this sort of thing Snowy, thanks.

From point 3 if its an even money bet that the third team to be relegated will come from the bottom 5 then that means its also an even money bet that they will come from outside the bottom 5. Still a bit of a scrap ahead

a1canary · November 23, 2012

Hmm, what was that i was saying about Hughes going before the weekend?!

Shack, i disagree, i think Redknapp will get their prima-donnas playing. Long term, not so sure, but remember what he did at Portsmouth when he went back there the second time. They were absolutely dead and buried, then he turned up and they started playing for him almost immediately. At that stage they were in almost exactly the same position as QPR are in now. A team full of expensively assembled and highly played "stars" . After ''arry turned up, players like Partick Burger and Pedro Mendes started banging goals in from all over and they escaped. Admittedly he brought some of them in after he arrived but they had only been underperforming at other clubs instead. He seems to be able to get certain kinds of players - reasonably talented ones who aren''t good enough for top 4 and who have got lazy and disinterested on fat pay packets. Hmm, sound familiar... Zamora, Taraabt, Faurlin, Boswinga....

star_manic · November 23, 2012

[quote user="Gingerpele"]QPR can''t afford Redknapp...

They can''t afford to buy a load of new players, and who really thinks Redknapp is going to suddenly change and not want to spend more money than available on a bunch of players? They aren''t going to be able to shift half the rubbish they''ve bought in, the other half are under performing. Redknapp isn''t the answer.[/quote].........if only you had waited 24 hrs before posting this ginger. hope you are right with the last sentence.

RvWs 4 year contract · November 23, 2012

[quote user="ricardo"]You will be glad to hear Nigel, that after much analysis and discussion