To Push or Not To Push - That Is The Question

[ncfcstar 296]

For the first time in many many years we have a board, and to top that, a manager, who are trying to turn the rudder and put this club on the right course.  After the 7-1 defeat to Colchester at the beginning of last season I doubt many of us would have thought we could be discussing a push for promotion to the Premier League, a little over 17 months later, in our wildest dreams.What we achieved last season has gone under the radar in regards to the national press, but we all realised when we tore that league apart that the achievement was one which should have been lauded throughout the country.  Luckily for us, it meant that a lot of our player weren''t subject to talk in the press so Lambert could keep building his squad during last summer and take us to the position we find ourselves in today.  One that is a promising as at any other time I can remember whilst being a fan of this football club.  Yes we can look back at 03/04 and the Playoff Final in 2002, but can any of us seriously say we had so much confidence in the way the club was heading at that time?The big question that has come out of the AGM last night is obviously in regards to investment, but as important is the move to push for promotion - the Beeb have tried to put an article together here - BBC interview with Bowkett.  So do we push?I guess it comes down to whether or not pushing will be of detriment to us next season if we are not successful.  For example, say we spend another £2m on a couple of players in this window.  It would send out the right signals to all of our contenders - we mean business.  It would most certainly galvanise the fans, and I''m sure would give the players that extra incentive to push for places in the squad.  If we finish in the top two then the ''gamble'' has paid off.  What if we finish in the playoff places, and lose in the semi or final?  Does it mean that the playing budget for the 2011/12 season is cut?  Would it mean having to sell some of our higher earners to balance the books again?  I''m sure McNally and Bowkett have worked out the various scenarios.Personally I think we are in a great position, but all too often teams have performed one season and not the next.  Leicester this season would have been a prime example until the money started being spent; something which we probably couldn''t rely on.  If we push then we have to push hard in my opinion, and really aim for one of the two automatic promotion places.  If we end up in the playoffs, as everyone says, it''s a lottery.I''m sure Bowkett and McNally wouldn''t do anything silly, but let''s not forget that we are only a year and a bit into their 7 year plan.  Staying in the Championship for another season or so would not be that bad, in fact on a personal note I enjoy it more here than I would in the Premier League anyway.  You can''t account for injuries and the like, but if we do push we need to be in a position where we think automatic promotion is a very very high probability.  As much as I want it to be, I don''t think we have the squads that QPR and Cardiff have for example.  Forest as well, look very strong.  Obviously I want us to succeed, but the cautious man in me worries that if we do push and fail what will the knock on effect be.It''s going to be an interesting week or so, but I have the utmost faith in McNally, Bowkett, and Lambert.  Bring on the rest of the season.

[PhatCanary 0]

Good post.I say PUSH,we have the momentum and the squad,with1 maybe 2 signings we will go up!!

[Mr Brownstone 0]

Off the top of my head I can''t think of too many scenarios where ''sh*t or bust'' has actually worked so I would feel massively uncomfortable if we were gambling money from next years budget on ''big'' signings.

For what it''s worth, after steadying the ship, I very much doubt Bowkett or McNally would allow that to happen anyway. For me, if we are to spend ''big'' and ''go for it'', it would have to come from new investment, otherwise we stick to the planned budget for the season.

[kdncfc 27]

Push, it might be a long while before we are in such a good position. If we don''t go up we always have the option of selling someone to balance the books.

[alysha 0]

[quote user="kdncfc"]Push, it might be a long while before we are in such a good position. If we don''t go up we always have the option of selling someone to balance the books.
[/quote]

hear hear

[Gingerpele 0]

This whole ''pushing'' thing is silly....

When you play a game of Football, you go out there to win (well at least you should be doing in professional football)...

All the ''pushing'' comments really mean, is that the board will maybe give Lambert more money to spend now, as we are in a good position, than if we were in mid-table, looking alright, but not going up or down..... As the first half of the season has shown, even with a fairly bad run (we had a 5 game without a win period didn''t we? Although i believe 3/4 draws...), and had a few injury problems. Plus Chris Martin and Jackson not really adding many goals to the team, which you would have thought was needed to be in this position in the league...

Norwich have been ''pushing'' from the beginning, its just now were in a position where we get to decide out own future, its up to us to keep ourselves in promotion contention, and not hope teams around up falter. And the best way to do that, is to make sure we essentially have two full teams, we need to be able to cover any injuries/suspensions with players who are at a similar quality....Which is hard, because if we signed another Holt, he wouldn''t want to sit on the bench....

[Canary Chris 0]

I would certainly be going for the ''Push'' approach but rather than spend absurd amounts of money on a gamble, spend a reasonable amount of money on strength in depth.

 

But should the right player come up at the right price (Messi for £500k!?!) I wouldn''t be averse to going for it!

[rondy 0]

excellent post and I agree with all the above.. looking at it the other way - can we afford NOT to go for it? Prudence blar blar blar, but we''re talking here about a couple of million quid tops that won''t put the future of the club at risk but could seriously push us over the finish line into and into the land of milk and honey. The championship is there for the taking THIS season, and I think Lambert/McNally/Bowkett know this - we''re in a very good position and with a couple of ''big'' signings - say Austin and Bennett I honestly believe the way Lambert has the squad performing that we would be very close to the auto spots, and I actually think we''d make the top 2.. From a financial position the play offs wouldn''t be a disaster either, as even if we went out in the semi finals then the revenue from that - 1 x home leg (26,500 tickets @ £30 each =  £800,000 + TV etc would be £1m and probably the same again for reaching Wembley, which would cover the cost of bringing in a couple of players anyway..I honestly believe the club would be making a massive mistake in not ''giving it a go'' and seeing what happens. If it all goes wrong and we dont even finish in the top 6 then a slight bit of groveling to the banks and a restructure of the debt is all it would take - this gamble would not end up with us in administration and I really hope that the powers that be are prepared to twist.. an interesting few weeks ahead me thinks! otbc

[alysha 0]

[quote user="rondy"]excellent post and I agree with all the above.. looking at it the other way - can we afford NOT to go for it? Prudence blar blar blar, but we''re talking here about a couple of million quid tops that won''t put the future of the club at risk but could seriously push us over the finish line into and into the land of milk and honey. The championship is there for the taking THIS season, and I think Lambert/McNally/Bowkett know this - we''re in a very good position and with a couple of ''big'' signings - say Austin and Bennett I honestly believe the way Lambert has the squad performing that we would be very close to the auto spots, and I actually think we''d make the top 2..

From a financial position the play offs wouldn''t be a disaster either, as even if we went out in the semi finals then the revenue from that - 1 x home leg (26,500 tickets @ £30 each =  £800,000 + TV etc would be £1m and probably the same again for reaching Wembley, which would cover the cost of bringing in a couple of players anyway..

I honestly believe the club would be making a massive mistake in not ''giving it a go'' and seeing what happens. If it all goes wrong and we dont even finish in the top 6 then a slight bit of groveling to the banks and a restructure of the debt is all it would take - this gamble would not end up with us in administration and I really hope that the powers that be are prepared to twist..

an interesting few weeks ahead me thinks!

otbc
[/quote]

good post [Y]

[city till i die 0]

depends who we sign!!

Say we push the boat out and get Austin and Bennett, or similar players. Then i say we Push, both are young enough to recoup and make a profit from!! If we fail to win promotion this year, we will be strong for next season, and if a bid come''s in it gives the board something to think about!!

[ncfcstar 296]

[quote user="Gingerpele"]This whole ''pushing'' thing is silly....

When you play a game of Football, you go out there to win (well at least you should be doing in professional football)...

All the ''pushing'' comments really mean, is that the board will maybe give Lambert more money to spend now, as we are in a good position, than if we were in mid-table, looking alright, but not going up or down..... As the first half of the season has shown, even with a fairly bad run (we had a 5 game without a win period didn''t we? Although i believe 3/4 draws...), and had a few injury problems. Plus Chris Martin and Jackson not really adding many goals to the team, which you would have thought was needed to be in this position in the league...

Norwich have been ''pushing'' from the beginning, its just now were in a position where we get to decide out own future, its up to us to keep ourselves in promotion contention, and not hope teams around up falter. And the best way to do that, is to make sure we essentially have two full teams, we need to be able to cover any injuries/suspensions with players who are at a similar quality....Which is hard, because if we signed another Holt, he wouldn''t want to sit on the bench....[/quote]It''s not silly, and it''s quite obvious that the pushing means going out to sign some more players, I don''t think anyone has implied otherwise?

[Gingerpele 0]

That isn''t pushing, its called strengthening you squad, something every club does....

The whole club statement thing, is really just their to gather some media attention, and try and boost our chances in signing players, it doesn''t really mean anything else....

[Mr Brownstone 0]

[quote user="kdncfc"]Push, it might be a long while before we are in such a good position. If we don''t go up we always have the option of selling someone to balance the books.[/quote]

I''m not expecting much support on this one, but don''t you think that stratergy is a little too risky given our very recent history? If we spend big and fail and have to sell players in the summer to balance the books, then what? Lambert could leave along with our top players and we are back to square one and we could face another decade of mediocrity or worse. We''ve just come back from the brink and I''m not too keen to return there. Rome wasn''t built in a day.

[ncfcstar 296]

[quote user="Gingerpele"]That isn''t pushing, its called strengthening you squad, something every club does....

The whole club statement thing, is really just their to gather some media attention, and try and boost our chances in signing players, it doesn''t really mean anything else....[/quote]I don''t want to get in an argument over semantics, but it is pushing.  It''s pushing our budgets, it pushing for a goal.  It''s not simply a case of strengthening the squad.

[Tetteys Jig 831]

But it''s this group of players that have got us up there, i honestly don''t think we need some bigwig marquee signing coming in and disrupting our strady ship. I couldn''t care less if Martin and that ain''t scoring, Holt and Hoolahan are and that is enough for me. If the right player comes up, i obviously realise we are in the position to say, ''yeah, he might be the difference'' but the like of Yakubu and that would do us more harm than good i think. Lansbury back, a right winger and that''ll do me i''d say, barring injury to R Martin or Holt i think we''re covered everywhere else. However, like i say, if a bargain comes along, then why not buy.

[Hackney Canary 99]

Agree with Mr Brownstone - if we are to go for it, I''d hope whatever funds are used come from a generous benefactor (are you listening Mr Fry?) and are kept away from the balance sheet for the time being. A goal scorer with pace would be nice... after all, for a team that plays an attacking formation (which I love) we''re not actually scoring that many goals.

[Mr Brownstone 0]

I don''t think the banks would allow us to restructure again, we''ve only just done it, not an option.

[ncfcstar 296]

I think I tend to agree with the more conservative amongst us, but kdncfc makes a good point, will we be in such a position again?  Or in the near future?  I guess that''s what I tried to get across in my post as well.  It''s such a fine line between success and failure, but saying that I have full faith in the board; they will make the right decision I''m sure.

[kdncfc 27]

[quote user="Mr Brownstone"][quote user="kdncfc"]Push, it might be a long while before we are in such a good position. If we don''t go up we always have the option of selling someone to balance the books.[/quote]

I''m not expecting much support on this one, but don''t you think that stratergy is a little too risky given our very recent history? If we spend big and fail and have to sell players in the summer to balance the books, then what? Lambert could leave along with our top players and we are back to square one and we could face another decade of mediocrity or worse. We''ve just come back from the brink and I''m not too keen to return there. Rome wasn''t built in a day.[/quote]If we don''t go up we''re more likely to lose Lambert anyway so it''s more of a risk not to go for it imo.

[DOGGER 0]

Last time we "pushed it" we went up.Sign a top quality striker to play along side Holt and we are there!! (Not that Martin is poor)

[rondy 0]

I think its also worth pointing out that if we do ''go for it'' but don''t end up getting promoted at the end of the season (I cant believe i''m writing this after where we were 18th months ago!) then financially we really aren''t up shit creek without the proverbial..For the first time in far, far too long a number of OUR players are very much coveted by other clubs not only at the top end of this divison, but by clubs from the mid-lower reaches of the premier league; and if they carrying on improving/impressing as much as they have done, then by the end of the season their stock will only have risen even more.  Of course I hope it doesn''t happen, and that we can keep the hold of the core of this squad for 2-3-4 seasons to come and really push on, but if and when we need to cash in then we have a number of players that will bring in enough money to keep the banks happy, and then some...RuddyR.MartinWhitbreadWardFoxCroftsSmithSurmanHoltHoolahanC.MartinThese eleven players were put together for about £2m - I dont think its unrealistic to think that those 11 players are now worth, in todays market the best part of £10m, if we needed to sell.7 of these were Lambert signings and I believe that if he were allowed to bring in another couple of players, who no doubt will be young (under 27), hungry, will do well under him and so eventually end up being worth more than we signed them for.. The top 10, and especially QPR, Cardiff and Forest have/will bring in reinforcements and we need to do the same to stay right up there.ROLL THEM DICE!

[Bill 1,788]

Raeding threads like this you have to wonder at the

[Bill 1,788]

oops (don''t type on train)

anyway, again

Reading posts like this you have to wonder at the IQ of some of the folk who post on here.

The thread is started by should we ''push'', as if it''s an option. As if we have arrived at this position through luck or no concerted effort from all the club. It also conveniently ignores the message coming from the club at last night''s AGM that everything is being done to CONTINUE the drive towards promotion.

If there was any doubt about the idiocy of the thread then it was underpinned by this gem of stupidity - "For example, say we spend another £2m on a couple of players in this window. It would send out the right signals to all of our contenders - we mean business". .As opposed to us sitting in second place at one point. Unfortunately we are not told what response we are to get from our ''contenders''.

This of course supposes that £2m is already there and available to be spent - but is subject to the whim of the board. A board that is sat twiddling it;s thumbs while the conundrum ''should we push or should we not '' is contemplated.

Perhaps the dimwits behind such twaddle might care to reflect on why we were obliged to flog off the car park to reduce the debt, how the banks have already renegotiated the debts to allow us to avoid paying the full amount. Did we not gtel them that we had £2m hidden away - just in case we happened to find ourselves a point or two from the automatic promotion spots and we might want to consider whether we should ''push'' for it .... or not.

The club started the ''push'' when they appointed McNally, when he grabbed Lambert irrespective of the cost and when Lambert ensured that every game was to be played to win. So please, enough of this baloney about there being an option. We are confined by what can be made available. I trust the board to have done their damnest to make whatever is possible - available.

It can only be those of a slightly low level of intellect who think there is an option in this matter.

[BlyBlyBabes 0]

[quote user="City1st"]oops (don''t type on train) anyway, again Reading posts like this you have to wonder at the IQ of some of the folk who post on here. The thread is started by should we ''push'', as if it''s an option. As if we have arrived at this position through luck or no concerted effort from all the club. It also conveniently ignores the message coming from the club at last night''s AGM that everything is being done to CONTINUE the drive towards promotion. If there was any doubt about the idiocy of the thread then it was underpinned by this gem of stupidity - "For example, say we spend another £2m on a couple of players in this window. It would send out the right signals to all of our contenders - we mean business". .As opposed to us sitting in second place at one point. Unfortunately we are not told what response we are to get from our ''contenders''. This of course supposes that £2m is already there and available to be spent - but is subject to the whim of the board. A board that is sat twiddling it;s thumbs while the conundrum ''should we push or should we not '' is contemplated. Perhaps the dimwits behind such twaddle might care to reflect on why we were obliged to flog off the car park to reduce the debt, how the banks have already renegotiated the debts to allow us to avoid paying the full amount. Did we not gtel them that we had £2m hidden away - just in case we happened to find ourselves a point or two from the automatic promotion spots and we might want to consider whether we should ''push'' for it .... or not. The club started the ''push'' when they appointed McNally, when he grabbed Lambert irrespective of the cost and when Lambert ensured that every game was to be played to win. So please, enough of this baloney about there being an option. We are confined by what can be made available. I trust the board to have done their damnest to make whatever is possible - available. It can only be those of a slightly low level of intellect who think there is an option in this matter.[/quote]

 

So Bowkett et al are dimwitted too?

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/teams/n/norwich/9366650.stm

 

Of course there are January expenditure options.

 

Seems you''re a bit thick and don''t realise it.

 

Don''t worry, it''s quite common.

 

But still. One love.

 

OTBC

 

 

[Old Shuck 190]

Have to agree with many of thr sentiments on here-good thread, good comments. My thoughts are similar- if we do push and push just that little bit more-and don''t make it...what will the "price" be for that?

Push and risk?

Or keep it steady at less risk?

But, as has been said-can we afford not to? And can we afford TO?

Wow!!!

The "risk" being losing players of course, and losing players to sate the banks and lenders.

And absolutely, I would be very surprised if, for that whole seven years, Messrs.McNally, Bowkett, Lambert et al are here for the duration, so, of one, two, all have gone another 18 months/two years in, then won''t the plans all be re-branded anyway?!

Love the ambition, love the risk element, love the people in charge-but also a little bit scared!

[macdougalls perm 0]

Great post ncfcstar - I say we''d be stupid not to push; who knows when we might get this kind of momentum going again. And, let''s face facts, no matter what he says, if we don''t manage to go up this season, Lambert will be receiving offers that he might find difficult to turn down. And with his policy of targetting young, hungry players, we would be able to sell if needs be anyway. Seems like a bit of a no brainer for me. OTBC!!!!!! [Y] 

[Mr.Carrow 380]

Hahaha, City1st makes a tw@ of himself again.....

Jokers aside though, this really does come down to whether you view spending money on footballers as throwing it down the toilet (as Doncaster and his fans on here always did...), or, under the right manager with the right scouting system a shrewd investment which can benefit the club in every way.

The fact is that flogging off our best players every season and expecting managers to patch things up with a pittance led to us falling to our lowest level for 50 years- costing the club £millions. Buying footballers rather than selling them has reversed that decline, keeping hold of one of the best young managers in the game, accruing a clutch of inexpensive players who are already worth far more than they cost and the real potential of a £90m promotion.

I expect that whoever Lambert brings in, for whatever price, will be a bargain whether we attain promotion or not.

[blahblahblah 2]

[quote]The fact is that flogging off our best players every season and

expecting managers to patch things up with a pittance led to us falling

to our lowest level for 50 years- costing the club £millions.[/quote]The answer to this isn''t just "we''re spending more now than we did" - in fact that may not be true.  Grant was given as big a budget as Worthington, if not bigger.  The Roeder / Gunn season had the same budget that Wolves got promoted with.  The key to all of this is Lambert and his team.  Grant is a very good coach, but became a control freak when given the responsibility if the press at the time is to be believed, and lost the dressing-room.  Roeder can spot a player, but has the personality of Ricky Gervaises'' slightly more sarcastic older brother, and also replaced key elements of a team that went 12 games unbeaten with loans that were technically gifted, but young and unused to the demands of a relegation battle.  Lambert and his team can spot players, they understand how they can fit into a production line that produces goals and wins.  If we can tighten the defence up, stopping silly goals as a result of lapses in concentration, then we have a very good chance of automatic promotion.    So how much money do you have to spend to avoid lapses in concentration ?  Probably none.  We do however need to ensure that we have 22 square pegs of the best available quality which can go into the 11 holes, to perform the tasks required on the production line of goals and wins.A good player can cost you millions, a good manager can earn you or save you millions.  And that is why we must keep hold of Lambert for as long as we can, while his star his rising.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 1,637]

Play devil''s advocate here a little, but could the answer be loaning players?

 

If we go out and spend a £1m on someone like Bennett, and then maybe another £1m on a another player, give them both nice 3 year contracts with competitive wages and they turn out to be flops then it could impact the club in the longer term than just the next 6 months. Players values can crash quickly and it isn''t like there is plenty of money slooshing around in the Championship. Mega-rich QPR have a squad that cost £2m to assemble. So it might not be so easy to "off-load" players for a decent amount of money.

 

The main cost of buying players isn''t the one off transfer fee, it is the ongoing wages cost -- getting in a game changing player will mean game changing player''s wages for the next 2 or 3 years. Loaning players would mean reducing the risks, bringing in younger players who want to prove themselves and paying only a percentage of thier wages (which is the norm with loans, as if Cardiff cover Bellamy''s wages or West Ham cover Wayne Bridges''), if promotion doesn''t happen then we aren''t lumbered with a long term investment and if promotion happens the £41m recieved in the first season can bring in some Premier League quality players. This is also another factor, if we bought for example Bennett and Morrison, they might be able to push us along this season but what about if we are promoted? Our squad is already a little fat around the edges with League One players, a massive overhaul would be needed to have a reasonable attempt to stay up.

 

Of course the club have to go for promotion this year, if you have the chance take it, it may not come again for a long time. But the risk has to be managed, and loans might provide a bit more security compared to giving out 3 or 4 year contracts to somewhat unknown quatities.

[macdougalls perm 0]

[quote user="City1st"]oops (don''t type on train) anyway, again Reading posts like this you have to wonder at the IQ of some of the folk who post on here. The thread is started by should we ''push'', as if it''s an option. As if we have arrived at this position through luck or no concerted effort from all the club. It also conveniently ignores the message coming from the club at last night''s AGM that everything is being done to CONTINUE the drive towards promotion. If there was any doubt about the idiocy of the thread then it was underpinned by this gem of stupidity - "For example, say we spend another £2m on a couple of players in this window. It would send out the right signals to all of our contenders - we mean business". .As opposed to us sitting in second place at one point. Unfortunately we are not told what response we are to get from our ''contenders''. This of course supposes that £2m is already there and available to be spent - but is subject to the whim of the board. A board that is sat twiddling it;s thumbs while the conundrum ''should we push or should we not '' is contemplated. Perhaps the dimwits behind such twaddle might care to reflect on why we were obliged to flog off the car park to reduce the debt, how the banks have already renegotiated the debts to allow us to avoid paying the full amount. Did we not gtel them that we had £2m hidden away - just in case we happened to find ourselves a point or two from the automatic promotion spots and we might want to consider whether we should ''push'' for it .... or not. The club started the ''push'' when they appointed McNally, when he grabbed Lambert irrespective of the cost and when Lambert ensured that every game was to be played to win. So please, enough of this baloney about there being an option. We are confined by what can be made available. I trust the board to have done their damnest to make whatever is possible - available. It can only be those of a slightly low level of intellect who think there is an option in this matter.[/quote]

You''re incredibly arrogant aren''t you [:)]