Interesting insight into our away form

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

Obviously this phenomenon is exacerbated by the thinness of our squad. But it's an interesting stat, and one we've been on the wrong end of this season. Presumably having lots of long away trips doesn't help either.

Going to say again, the manner of it was infuriating. But a point on Tuesday wasn't the worst result overall.

[Thirsty Lizard 3,168]

35 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Obviously this phenomenon is exacerbated by the thinness of our squad. But it's an interesting stat, and one we've been on the wrong end of this season. Presumably having lots of long away trips doesn't help either.

Going to say again, the manner of it was infuriating. But a point on Tuesday wasn't the worst result overall.

Thanks - this is a really, really interesting stat. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

Just struck me that of course we have another of these 'away fatigued' games on Saturday... Got to buck the trend at some point.

[Ulfotto 640]

It’s interesting but the away games since December which drop into that category I believe are away at West Brom, Middlesbrough, Leeds, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday. Two of which we had ten men and two were against the two best teams in the league! 

[Thirsty Lizard 3,168]

3 minutes ago, Ulfotto said:

It’s interesting but the away games since December which drop into that category I believe are away at West Brom, Middlesbrough, Leeds, Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday. Two of which we had ten men and two were against the two best teams in the league! 

That's a fair point and provides even more context as to why we've struggled away so often, but the stat is a generic one for all teams - or at least all Championship teams.

Edited April 11 by Thirsty Lizard

[Thirsty Lizard 3,168]

42 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Just struck me that of course we have another of these 'away fatigued' games on Saturday... Got to buck the trend at some point.

It's worse than that - we're playing a 'double away'. Be afraid, be very afraid. 

[Taiwan Canary 144]

Quote

 

Thanks for sharing this. It's interesting insight like this that makes me love the pinkun. Hope we can buck the trend!

[stratton canary 134]

36 games in the Premier league & still got battered away, oh yeah our squad were rubbish & we went up to soon ( twice )! 😏 

[Nuff Said 5,146]

Stats, schmats. All we need to know on here is:

• We are rubbish playing away
• Wagner is rubbish at making subs
• xG is stupid, all the evidence you need is a pair of eyes
• We fanny about at the back too much
• Any unplayed player is great (see SVH)

 

[Thirsty Lizard 3,168]

42 minutes ago, stratton canary said:

36 games in the Premier league & still got battered away, oh yeah our squad were rubbish & we went up to soon ( twice )! 😏 

You can't even get the number of games right.................................

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

47 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Stats, schmats. All we need to know on here is:

• We are rubbish playing away
• Wagner is rubbish at making subs
• xG is stupid, all the evidence you need is a pair of eyes
• We fanny about at the back too much
• Any unplayed player is great (see SVH)

 

The Pink Un doesn't distinguish between those who liked this post on its face value and those who liked it assuming it's ironic. My like is one of the latter.

But playing two audiences at once is smart work. Chapeau.

Edited April 11 by Robert N. LiM

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

18 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

You can't even get the number of games right.................................

It is more than 20 years since they've been in it tbf. Easy to forget.

[Ulfotto 640]

55 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

Stats, schmats. All we need to know on here is:

• We are rubbish playing away
• Wagner is rubbish at making subs
• xG is stupid, all the evidence you need is a pair of eyes
• We fanny about at the back too much
• Any unplayed player is great (see SVH)

 

Kinda of need as a pinned post at the top of the forum.

[Bristol Canary 17]

Just heard this on the NTT20 Podcast and thought it was super interesting too... does explain quite a lot. 

For reference Ali Maxwell has Preston to beat us as his NAP of the weekend on the pod because of this dreaded double away theory. 

[Addick/Canary 73]

Conversely, the 'difficulties' experienced by all other teams in reaching our out-of-the way location, potentially explains our much better home record?

Ipswich don't count, of course, as they are simply mentally weak!

[Sufyellow 222]

I think it's more simple,  we have won I believe 8 in a row at home , teams will respect that and come for a point,  our away record is rubbish and most know any amount of pressure normally leads to a goal or 2, they also know not to give up at 2 nil down. Teams sit back we win , we sit back we lose. 

[Addick/Canary 73]

I'm always worried when we go 2-0 up, particularly early in the game, as it always seems to make other teams SO ANGRY!

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

When you think about it, it makes a lot of sense. Also very handy for things to consider when building accas 

[repman 635]

49 minutes ago, Sufyellow said:

I think it's more simple,  we have won I believe 8 in a row at home , teams will respect that and come for a point,  our away record is rubbish and most know any amount of pressure normally leads to a goal or 2, they also know not to give up at 2 nil down. Teams sit back we win , we sit back we lose. 

This bit feels the most true to me, realistically it's not that simple but I do think we have enough going forward to hurt any team and when we move away from that to protect a lead we are basically shooting ourselves in the foot.

Interestingly we are ranked joint second for points won in games where we've fallen behind (https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/punktenachrueckstand/wettbewerb/GB2/saison_id/2023/spiele/alle/plus/1). Only Ipswich are ahead and Leeds we have the same amount of points as. We have had more opportunities than Leeds to come from behind though.

On the flip side, we've had the lead in 31 games this season, which is higher than both Ipswich and Leeds. Of those 31 games we've won 20, drawn 6 and lost 5. The 5 losses is joint worst in the league alongside Rotherham and Swansea (though we've led more times so again more opportunity to do so). Our average points from winning positions is 2.13, which is 16th best in the league so we do seem to struggle at maintaining leads. On the positive side though Coventry, perhaps our nearest playoff challengers, are actually worse than us with an average of 2.11 points.

 

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

2 hours ago, repman said:

Interestingly we are ranked joint second for points won in games where we've fallen behind

 

2 hours ago, repman said:

On the flip side, we've had the lead in 31 games this season, which is higher than both Ipswich and Leeds. Of those 31 games we've won 20, drawn 6 and lost 5.

Interesting stuff. Probably most of the reason why, after 42 games, I still don't know whether we are brilliant or awful. Weirdest season on record. 

[Thirsty Lizard 3,168]

Another great example of double away fatigue with Leicester at Plymouth last night. 

[hogesar 9,704]

Cheers @Robert N. LiM

All this really does for me is exemplify what many of us said at the time - Knappers decision to weaken and thin our squad in January was and is nonsensical when you consider the finances saved are going to be relatively minimal in the big picture.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,788]

NCFC Numbers put out an interesting stat after Tuesdays game...

"Since the turn of the century, the fewest away points a Championship team has picked up in a season and still been promoted is 25.

Norwich City currently have 21 with two regular season games left to play... "

 

But for Fortess Carrow Road our season would have been over a long time ago...

[ZLF 274]

It's actually more than just 9 time; including midweek cup travels its into double figures and not a win amongst them,   making today's double away fixture a challenge.   

Add in we have an aerial vulnerability from set pieces (a particular strength for Preston) its going to be a tough afternoon but absolutely not beyond us.

We have lost after going ahead well before idahs departure and I think a stronger feature is the coaching preference to try and protect a lead while having a defence structure that isn't quite up to sustained pressure & staying error free.   And by defence I include all XI players

Fingers crossed we can take the lead again, by far the most likely way to gain that important win today

 

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

The more I think about it the more I think a point would be an excellent result today,  not least because it preserves our lead over Preston. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,409]

1 hour ago, hogesar said:

Cheers @Robert N. LiM

All this really does for me is exemplify what many of us said at the time - Knappers decision to weaken and thin our squad in January was and is nonsensical when you consider the finances saved are going to be relatively minimal in the big picture.

Certainly seemed like Knapper didn't feel Wagner could mount a play off challenge from the position we were in at Christmas, and decided we'd be better off keeping our powder dry till the summer. 

To be fair to him,  though, that was probably the majority view among fans at that time.

But now it does seem as though we're fighting for promotion with one hand tied behind our back.

[Nuff Said 5,146]

On 11/04/2024 at 16:14, Robert N. LiM said:

The Pink Un doesn't distinguish between those who liked this post on its face value and those who liked it assuming it's ironic. My like is one of the latter.

But playing two audiences at once is smart work. Chapeau.

Thanks. Although @Duncan Edwards is the master when it comes to this judging by the number of times his posts go over people’s heads.

[JonnyJonnyRowe 447]

On 11/04/2024 at 13:16, Robert N. LiM said:

Obviously this phenomenon is exacerbated by the thinness of our squad. But it's an interesting stat, and one we've been on the wrong end of this season. Presumably having lots of long away trips doesn't help either.

Going to say again, the manner of it was infuriating. But a point on Tuesday wasn't the worst result overall.

 

You could however argue that we've known the fixture list since July or whenever, and knew the fixture list in January when we decided to reduce the size of the squad.

Reducing the size of the squad when in a scrap for 6th place and with potentially 3 extra games to play at the end of the season doesn't look like the brightest idea, and yes we don't know what state we are in financially, but a small cash injection to bring in 1 or 2 additional faces on loan would have been good optics for MA ahead of a potential full takeover wouldn't it? 

Its amazing really that when you consider how much some clubs spend to get to the Premier League we've left ourselves short of numbers to save what must amount to little more than half a million quid in wages for Forshaw, Springett and Placheta, or perhaps £1m if we include Hwang who was sent home.

If £1m couldn't be found from somewhere to ensure that we had an adequate number of players to give ourselves some sort of chance at a promotion worth north of £100m in additional revenue, then might have to question whether MA is actually the regime change that we want. There is being fiscally conservative and there is chronic underfunding, a fine line between the two which in January we stepped the wrong side of I fear.

I do get it, we've got high earners like Giannoulis and Gibson leaving in the summer and need to potentially find some cash for transfer fees to replace them. But a couple of million is surely a worthy punt with a 25% chance of a £100m return. 

I would bet £2 to guess the number on a four sided dice if you told me I'd get £100 back if guessing correctly.

[Bobzilla 150]

22 hours ago, JonnyJonnyRowe said:

 

You could however argue that we've known the fixture list since July or whenever, and knew the fixture list in January when we decided to reduce the size of the squad.

Reducing the size of the squad when in a scrap for 6th place and with potentially 3 extra games to play at the end of the season doesn't look like the brightest idea, and yes we don't know what state we are in financially, but a small cash injection to bring in 1 or 2 additional faces on loan would have been good optics for MA ahead of a potential full takeover wouldn't it? 

Its amazing really that when you consider how much some clubs spend to get to the Premier League we've left ourselves short of numbers to save what must amount to little more than half a million quid in wages for Forshaw, Springett and Placheta, or perhaps £1m if we include Hwang who was sent home.

If £1m couldn't be found from somewhere to ensure that we had an adequate number of players to give ourselves some sort of chance at a promotion worth north of £100m in additional revenue, then might have to question whether MA is actually the regime change that we want. There is being fiscally conservative and there is chronic underfunding, a fine line between the two which in January we stepped the wrong side of I fear.

I do get it, we've got high earners like Giannoulis and Gibson leaving in the summer and need to potentially find some cash for transfer fees to replace them. But a couple of million is surely a worthy punt with a 25% chance of a £100m return. 

I would bet £2 to guess the number on a four sided dice if you told me I'd get £100 back if guessing correctly.

Would you bet your last £2 knowing you hadn't eaten in a week?

[JonnyJonnyRowe 447]

21 hours ago, Bobzilla said:

Would you bet your last £2 knowing you hadn't eaten in a week?

If we're applying relatively here, and knowing that MA is worth somewhere around £560m.

Then £2m to somebody worth £560m would be like £2 to somebody with £560 in cash.

Yes I would bet the £2 if I had £560 in my wallet.