Statistically 98.7% staying up but play offs are a no

[Mutley 79]

Predicted 17th place finish on Opta Analyst: 

https://theanalyst.com/2023/11/championship-predictions-2023-24-november/

Edited November 21, 2023 by Mutley

[If wed kept Howie.. 208]

in a word.. nah

[If wed kept Howie.. 208]

in more words - trying to model complex real life events using such a small dataset is pseudoscience

[Google Bot 3,298]

Pretty sure that being 6 points off 6th Place currently, we have a far greater chance than 1.3% of finishing top 6 this season.

[Branston Pickle 3,679]

It’s pretty stupid to read anything into things at this stage - all sides are a couple of injuries from going on a poor run.  Look again after 30-32 games and I might start to agree with the predictions.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,778]

Based on current form. Still 30 to go.

[Ness Point Runner 21]

It's just numbers. It's time on the grass that counts and May is a long way off.

[First Wazzock 904]

[Mutley 79]

1 hour ago, Google Bot said:

Pretty sure that being 6 points off 6th Place currently, we have a far greater chance than 1.3% of finishing top 6 this season.

It is predicting that we only have have a 1.3% chance of being relegated. Thankfully that should bring some reassurance to those that are worried about that. 

I’m still not ruling us out on the play offs as six points is catchable but with a few caveats:

Gunn, Hanley, Barnes and Sargent all return from injury and fully firing by the beginning of January, some will hopefully be back sooner, and Rowe does not have an injury that will keep him out at all. 

We do not lose Rowe, Gunn or Sara in the January window. 

Our new SD creates a positive atmosphere and somehow is able to bring in a quality CDM in January. 

I’m not asking for too much am I? 😊😊😊
 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by Mutley

[Robert N. LiM 4,464]

Beyond the headline, it's quite an interesting piece. xG fans will be interested to learn that our actual points almost perfectly match our expected points based on xG. If you want some hope, it's interesting that Ipswich are massively outperforming their xG, which suggests that Leeds (who aren't) have a decent chance of reeling them in.

And just on the percentages, I'd say the best way of reading them is as a range - what they're saying is that we are extremely unlikely to get relegated, and extremely unlikely to make the top 6. I mean, that matches the smell test, doesn't it?

[Mutley 79]

I am really hoping that the binners implode. They now have a tough run of games with several on Sky and their record on the box is appalling. Here's hoping... 

[HazzaJet 256]

We’re only 9 points clear of the drop but then only 6 off the playoffs. Way too early to tell - if you have a look at the table you will see that there’s still a lot of places we could move to on Saturday

[RobJames 884]

I think that many on here are unaware that the season ends on Nov 30th, so to laugh at the OP is wrong.

[Capt. Pants 4,274]

At this stage of the season anything is possible, although there are fewer clubs below us than there are above! Those above will also be thinking they have a chance of play-offs.

My gut feel is we'll faff around and finish mid-table, but we'll have a much clearer idea after the next 7 games.

 

 

[Norfolk Mustard 94]

In an ideal world, here's how I see it panning out:

Leicester finish as Champions. Leeds successfully chase down Ipswich & secure the second auto position. Norwich finally get their act together & make steady progress with a late flourish to finish 5th. 3rd beats 6th, & 5th beats 4th in the playoffs. Norwich beat Ipswich at Wembley & the job's a good 'un!

 

[DraytonBoy 160]

City have got some really tough away matches that they have to get points from as well as winning most of the remaining home games, not impossible but there has to be a quick improvement.

[Mason 47 1,391]

On 21/11/2023 at 17:18, Robert N. LiM said:

Beyond the headline, it's quite an interesting piece. xG fans will be interested to learn that our actual points almost perfectly match our expected points based on xG. If you want some hope, it's interesting that Ipswich are massively outperforming their xG, which suggests that Leeds (who aren't) have a decent chance of reeling them in.

And just on the percentages, I'd say the best way of reading them is as a range - what they're saying is that we are extremely unlikely to get relegated, and extremely unlikely to make the top 6. I mean, that matches the smell test, doesn't it?

The xG thing makes sense to me, when we were firing we were hard to stop. Any game we're off it (which has been many) we've generally lost. Its probably equally sensible to see that in a positive or negative way.

I suppose the limitation of looking at it from a purely statistical perspective is that the return of Sargent etc can't be factored in. It may make no difference but you'd wager having watched us that our chances for points are considerably better with JS in the team; can someone whip up a metric for xS (Expected Sargents)?

[Midlands Yellow 4,044]

2 hours ago, Mason 47 said:

The xG thing makes sense to me, when we were firing we were hard to stop. Any game we're off it (which has been many) we've generally lost. Its probably equally sensible to see that in a positive or negative way.

I suppose the limitation of looking at it from a purely statistical perspective is that the return of Sargent etc can't be factored in. It may make no difference but you'd wager having watched us that our chances for points are considerably better with JS in the team; can someone whip up a metric for xS (Expected Sargents)?

It’s robotic analysis for people who have too much free time on their hands. Has it made money? Probably yes, see Big Tony at Brighton for that result. Is it as boring as hell when looking back at a match? Jesus yes, it’s the gold medal winner. 

[Mutley 79]

4 hours ago, Norfolk Mustard said:

In an ideal world, here's how I see it panning out:

Leicester finish as Champions. Leeds successfully chase down Ipswich & secure the second auto position. Norwich finally get their act together & make steady progress with a late flourish to finish 5th. 3rd beats 6th, & 5th beats 4th in the playoffs. Norwich beat Ipswich at Wembley & the job's a good 'un!

 

This is pure fantasy league football!

I’m not sure my nerves would cope with a play off final against Ipswich but we’d probably have a better chance in a one-off game than over two.

So it’s Farke chasing down the binners successfully and demoralising them in a third place finish with us finishing fourth or fifth - easy. 

Works well for me. Amazing how much more optimism there is when we’re not playing. 

 

 

[hogesar 9,722]

1 hour ago, Midlands Yellow said:

It’s robotic analysis for people who have too much free time on their hands. Has it made money? Probably yes, see Big Tony at Brighton for that result. Is it as boring as hell when looking back at a match? Jesus yes, it’s the gold medal winner. 

Of course it's made money, and the top coaches in the world pay significant sums for more access to it.

Like most things, it's often perceived as boring when you don't have the capacity to understand it properly.

[hogesar 9,722]

2 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

It’s not hard to understand you condescending ****, it’s just boring. 

Clearly it is, for some.

Well, you.

Anyway, calling people all sorts of profanities is all a bit Internet, is it not?

How about you actually get your bum to a Norwich game, and you can come repeat all the same stuff in person? At least I could vaguely respect one small part of you...

Edited November 23, 2023 by hogesar

[Midlands Yellow 4,044]

Just now, hogesar said:

Clearly it is, for some.

Well, you.

I was calling you the word beginning with T btw, and that’s being kind. 

[hogesar 9,722]

20 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

I was calling you the word beginning with T btw, and that’s being kind. 

I repeat, actually come to a Norwich game, and say the same things in person so I can have a tiny amount of respect for your pathetic Internet persona.