Wage bill / squad shaping

[Soldier on 168]

Much made of our lack of funds ahead of next season . I know we borrowed money against our parachute payments but wasn’t this in the main a cash flow issue ?

 

hopefully we have an opportunity to reshape our squad next season with better balance. Lots of wages off the wage bill for next season (Byram, Pukki, sinani, Cantwell , Hayden , Rashica, ) for players who have contributed little and out of contract or sold. It really is going to be a massive one for Webber though. Aside from changes at the top (attanasio) it will be interesting to see what if any changes will be made to our football operations?

[Danke bitte 967]

20 minutes ago, Soldier on said:

Much made of our lack of funds ahead of next season . I know we borrowed money against our parachute payments but wasn’t this in the main a cash flow issue ?

 

hopefully we have an opportunity to reshape our squad next season with better balance. Lots of wages off the wage bill for next season (Byram, Pukki, sinani, Cantwell , Hayden , Rashica, ) for players who have contributed little and out of contract or sold. It really is going to be a massive one for Webber though. Aside from changes at the top (attanasio) it will be interesting to see what if any changes will be made to our football operations?

It’s a massive one for Webber. If he gets it wrong and Wagner can’t get a tune out of the those assembled, depending of Attanasio’s ownership, he might well find himself out of a job.

For all his foibles and the bile on here, I think Webber is a decent Championship DoF. It very much depends on Attanasio’s genuine ambitions though - go up to the Prem and I doubt Webber would be trusted with a kitty he so poorly spent last time. Attanasio would have paid attention to that, despite his smiles the guy is hard nosed businessman from NY. He’s no fool. 

[essex canary 506]

Webber to work half a week with a reduced  salary to match. He may perform better. I mean Stu. The other one should be zero.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,810]

Lots of sales, Aaron's off to Spurs and Pukki off to somewhere. Not sure I trust Webber to replace them mind

[Indy 3,322]

It's not just about the summer the club will need to restructure for the following season without parachute payments. To think we'll just go up next season is just a little bit of wishful thinking, not saying it can't or won't happen but this club won't gamble on it this season coming should we not gain promotion, its not our style. 

More likely as we are seeing youth products are being used and Wagner singing their praises shows that we going back to basics using our Cat 1 system to promote youth products. Mumba, Rowe to come back next year, Gibbs, Sorensen & McCullum looking decent prospects with Omobamedele we have a core of very promising young team. If Idah & Sargent can get going up top its a very youthful set of players and if we can keep hold of Sara & Nunez decent prime players who should now make that adjustment to English football. There's a very decent core of good players sprinkled with older players with the best days behind them, I hope we start to use the younger players who make a claim by warranting their place in the team and not just bring back old experienced players.

I don't expect massive changes, I do see Dowell going too, just too injury prone, Byram, Hayden is out of contract this summer but I really don't want him back taking up wages while injured all season again. Should be a fun summer, but one thing for sure picking up gems from EU on the cheap has long gone.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Indy

[shefcanary 2,465]

1 hour ago, Soldier on said:

Much made of our lack of funds ahead of next season . I know we borrowed money against our parachute payments but wasn’t this in the main a cash flow issue ?

 

hopefully we have an opportunity to reshape our squad next season with better balance. Lots of wages off the wage bill for next season (Byram, Pukki, sinani, Cantwell , Hayden , Rashica, ) for players who have contributed little and out of contract or sold. It really is going to be a massive one for Webber though. Aside from changes at the top (attanasio) it will be interesting to see what if any changes will be made to our football operations?

Not just a cash flow issue. The player's signed in recent years have been paid much higher salaries than was in the original budgets (as reported in the financial statements where our wage bill was some £50m plus higher than Brentford). So the money we borrowed covered not only the money spent in the past on transfers but also to cover the current salary bill. This did not automatically get cut in half on relegation as players like Pukki and Gibson did not agree to such clauses (there are likely to be others as well). However once those on the higher wages are released at the end of their contracts, that cash flow issue disappears. As Richens has stated, thereafter player trading will have to cover new acquisitions over the summer as no spare cash from the parachute payments as that has paid for salaries.  I hate to think what the cost will be in the next financial statements, but in comparison to the rest of the championship it will not be pretty. 

As I've spelt out before, sales of Rashica, Sara, a couple of others, the Maddison dividend and the Attanasio preference share money, should provide Webber with c.£50m for a Wagner re-build. But can we trust Webber to deliver! 

[king canary 7,679]

It is so difficult to know without knowing where the wage bill sits right now.

It was £118m in the Premier League. Our players reportedly have solid relegation wage drop clauses and obviously some highly paid loans came to an end and people like PLM, Josip Drmic, Zimmerman and Rupp left - so lets assume it dropped by 50% and sits around the £60m mark going into this season even with the new signings.

Of those who left in Jan I'd assume Hugill and Cantwell were on solid wages. Pukki was reportedly still on his Premier League wages of over £50k p/w. If we also let Dowell, Hernandez and Byram walk, along with Hayden leaving at the end of his loan I'd suggest that would knock about £10m off the wage bill. Rashica will also likely be a top earner.

One we probably need to move on in the summer is Krul- rumours were he was one of our highest paid players and he's now a backup. If we can find someone to take him for no fee it might save another £m or 2. 

Even then the wage bill looks chunky so I don't expect huge room to manoeuvre without player sales or a cash injection from our new Yank board members. 

[Indy 3,322]

7 minutes ago, king canary said:

It is so difficult to know without knowing where the wage bill sits right now.

It was £118m in the Premier League. Our players reportedly have solid relegation wage drop clauses and obviously some highly paid loans came to an end and people like PLM, Josip Drmic, Zimmerman and Rupp left - so lets assume it dropped by 50% and sits around the £60m mark going into this season even with the new signings.

Of those who left in Jan I'd assume Hugill and Cantwell were on solid wages. Pukki was reportedly still on his Premier League wages of over £50k p/w. If we also let Dowell, Hernandez and Byram walk, along with Hayden leaving at the end of his loan I'd suggest that would knock about £10m off the wage bill. Rashica will also likely be a top earner.

One we probably need to move on in the summer is Krul- rumours were he was one of our highest paid players and he's now a backup. If we can find someone to take him for no fee it might save another £m or 2. 

Even then the wage bill looks chunky so I don't expect huge room to manoeuvre without player sales or a cash injection from our new Yank board members. 

Indeed KC but even with the US investment we will be under EFL FFP rules will mean we need to start to restructure to stay in these guidelines. I'm with you on the wages estimate and ultimately we will need to knock them down to around 40 million if we don't go up next season.

[Danke bitte 967]

11 minutes ago, Indy said:

Indeed KC but even with the US investment we will be under EFL FFP rules will mean we need to start to restructure to stay in these guidelines. I'm with you on the wages estimate and ultimately we will need to knock them down to around 40 million if we don't go up next season.

I think the biggest issue in all of this is recruitment. I don’t think the notion of relying on the academy for first team regulars is particularly smart. If that’s the case everyone would be doing it.

We’re now hamstrung because of fkng Brexit, so goodbye cheap European gems. We’re now reliant on a recruitment team that bought us the treat of Rashica et al and last summer’s patchy signings. Not entirely convinced with our bodies in that dept. It’s going to be interesting to see if Attanasio’s gaze falls hard on this aspect of the club’s output and not just solely player sales and wage budget. 

[Midlands Yellow 4,083]

29 minutes ago, king canary said:

It is so difficult to know without knowing where the wage bill sits right now.

It was £118m in the Premier League. Our players reportedly have solid relegation wage drop clauses and obviously some highly paid loans came to an end and people like PLM, Josip Drmic, Zimmerman and Rupp left - so lets assume it dropped by 50% and sits around the £60m mark going into this season even with the new signings.

Of those who left in Jan I'd assume Hugill and Cantwell were on solid wages. Pukki was reportedly still on his Premier League wages of over £50k p/w. If we also let Dowell, Hernandez and Byram walk, along with Hayden leaving at the end of his loan I'd suggest that would knock about £10m off the wage bill. Rashica will also likely be a top earner.

One we probably need to move on in the summer is Krul- rumours were he was one of our highest paid players and he's now a backup. If we can find someone to take him for no fee it might save another £m or 2. 

Even then the wage bill looks chunky so I don't expect huge room to manoeuvre without player sales or a cash injection from our new Yank board members. 

Onel has to stay if it’s Championship football next season. 

[NewNestCarrow 203]

9 hours ago, king canary said:

It is so difficult to know without knowing where the wage bill sits right now.

It was £118m in the Premier League. Our players reportedly have solid relegation wage drop clauses and obviously some highly paid loans came to an end and people like PLM, Josip Drmic, Zimmerman and Rupp left - so lets assume it dropped by 50% and sits around the £60m mark going into this season even with the new signings.

Please outline why you believe there will be a 50% drop in wages after relegation?

If it helps, here are the figures from previous seasons (when the club was similarly keen to let it be known that "big wage cuts" were in place)

After relegation of 2005: wages cut by c. 9%

After relegation of 2016:  wages cut by c. 18%

After relegation of 2020: wages cut by c 35%

Also please bear in mind that at least one player (Pukki) is still receiving his full PL wage (as per Bailey).

 

[Yellow and Green 335]

12 hours ago, Danke bitte said:

I think the biggest issue in all of this is recruitment. 

We’re now hamstrung because of fkng Brexit, so goodbye cheap European gems. 

This is my concern. We're caught between having very limited funds, needing at least four quality players capable of stepping up to the PL, all from a restricted area to find them from.

It's been widely discussed that the uk is an expensive market to buy from, so we're left with the Brexit rules. As we're unable to afford the  top players from Spain/France/Germany/Italy, we'll have to buy from alternative countries like Greece, Denmark, Chile etc, where it's more difficult to assess if/how the players can adapt. 

Whilst I agree that the poor recruitment lays at Webber's door, having the foresight to scout South America was an excellent move, which gives us an advantage over most other clubs at this level. His problem is that he really doesn't have much room for error. 

[king canary 7,679]

7 hours ago, NewNestCarrow said:

Please outline why you believe there will be a 50% drop in wages after relegation?

If it helps, here are the figures from previous seasons (when the club was similarly keen to let it be known that "big wage cuts" were in place)

After relegation of 2005: wages cut by c. 9%

After relegation of 2016:  wages cut by c. 18%

After relegation of 2020: wages cut by c 35%

Also please bear in mind that at least one player (Pukki) is still receiving his full PL wage (as per Bailey).

 

It's only a guess to be honest. But I'm combining the potential relegation wage drops with the fact that some of our higher paid new signings were reportedly the loanees who came off the wage budget (Normann, Kabak, Williams), along with players like Drmic, who was reportedly well paid by our standards leaving.

[Capt. Pants 4,283]

Pinkun suggesting Rashica could be on loan at Gala again next season.

Not sure that's the best outcome for us?

[Indy 3,322]

19 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Pinkun suggesting Rashica could be on loan at Gala again next season.

Not sure that's the best outcome for us?

Unless we're getting 3 million loan fee, I agree.

[Indy 3,322]

7 hours ago, Yellow and Green said:

This is my concern. We're caught between having very limited funds, needing at least four quality players capable of stepping up to the PL, all from a restricted area to find them from.

It's been widely discussed that the uk is an expensive market to buy from, so we're left with the Brexit rules. As we're unable to afford the  top players from Spain/France/Germany/Italy, we'll have to buy from alternative countries like Greece, Denmark, Chile etc, where it's more difficult to assess if/how the players can adapt. 

Whilst I agree that the poor recruitment lays at Webber's door, having the foresight to scout South America was an excellent move, which gives us an advantage over most other clubs at this level. His problem is that he really doesn't have much room for error. 

Indeed that's why I posted about reliance on our Youth system, it's going to be used as any decent League 1 Player will be in the millions.

[Google Bot 3,327]

22 hours ago, Danke bitte said:

Attanasio would have paid attention to that, despite his smiles the guy is hard nosed businessman from NY. He’s no fool. 

Wouldn't a hard nosed businessman primarily care for the bottom line, though?

So he probably would prefer Webber to continue with the focus on buying many rough stones in an attempt to uncover one or two diamonds to sell as assets a few years later? 

Sara's value could very well hit the 20-30m mark, a businessman would view that as an incredible turnaround in a business where you're expected to lose money.  He landed 75m from Lewis, Godfrey & Emi through 2020-2021.

But since then we've tried to hold on to assets (to a fault?) to build a team, players such as Todd, Pukki and Max wanted out - and together they were probably worth £50-60m if we sold at the right time. 

Now, we're looking at probably 10m for Max.

So it's not all that straight forward, I think MA will offer his experiences and toolkits built from baseball.  And I think he'll have a lot of respect and appreciation for what Webber has done here,

To review how each approach has materialised, even if we are frustrated, there's still much to learn.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Google Bot

[shefcanary 2,465]

4 hours ago, king canary said:

It's only a guess to be honest. But I'm combining the potential relegation wage drops with the fact that some of our higher paid new signings were reportedly the loanees who came off the wage budget (Normann, Kabak, Williams), along with players like Drmic, who was reportedly well paid by our standards leaving.

I know why it is only a guess and that is down to the statements we always hear from the club about contracts having relegation clauses. But the fact is, most seasoned professionals with good agents at the club refuse to sign such contracts (Pukki, Gibson we know of, potentially a few others as well). Treading on Ethics toes again, the **** that always comes out from the Board, whilst well meaning, is hardly deserving of the transparency element of the fan engagement award. As NewNestCarrow has perfectly stated, the financial statements always prove such a statement is untrue.

[Jim Smith 2,339]

I would give Dowell and Onel new contracts but then look to build a more youthful squad around the likes of Andy O , Gibbs and Sorensen. If we have to sell Max now to rebuild then so be it. 
 

We will need a CB in plus a striker with a bit of pace.

GK: Gunn + 1

RB: Mumba + 1

LB: McCullum, Gianoulis 

CB: Omobamidele, Gibson, +1 or +2 depending on how long Hanley is out

CM: Gibbs, Sorensen, McClean, Sara, Nunez

AM: Dowell, Onel, Rowe, Tzolis + 1

CF: Sargent, Idah, Kamara +1

Assuming we are championship. 

 

 

[king canary 7,679]

37 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

I know why it is only a guess and that is down to the statements we always hear from the club about contracts having relegation clauses. But the fact is, most seasoned professionals with good agents at the club refuse to sign such contracts (Pukki, Gibson we know of, potentially a few others as well). Treading on Ethics toes again, the **** that always comes out from the Board, whilst well meaning, is hardly deserving of the transparency element of the fan engagement award. As NewNestCarrow has perfectly stated, the financial statements always prove such a statement is untrue.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong I'm aware some of the numbers that end up in the press about 50 or even 60% wage drops are clearly ****.

But I'm suggesting that smaller wage drops combined with some pretty sizable wages going off the bill this past summer (I'd imagine Normann, Kabak and Williams were amongst our highest paid players and there were reports Drmic was earning nearly £50k p/w when we signed him) would have led to a considerable drop, even if it doesn't total 50%.  

[Channon’s Windmill 335]

12 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

I would give Dowell and Onel new contracts but then look to build a more youthful squad around the likes of Andy O , Gibbs and Sorensen. If we have to sell Max now to rebuild then so be it. 
 

We will need a CB in plus a striker with a bit of pace.

GK: Gunn + 1

RB: Mumba + 1

LB: McCullum, Gianoulis 

CB: Omobamidele, Gibson, +1 or +2 depending on how long Hanley is out

CM: Gibbs, Sorensen, McClean, Sara, Nunez

AM: Dowell, Onel, Rowe, Tzolis + 1

CF: Sargent, Idah, Kamara +1

Assuming we are championship. 

 

 

Jim,

We don’t need another season without a CDM, one, if not the most important requirement. We have yet to replace Tettey.

[Soldier on 168]

10 minutes ago, Channon’s Windmill said:

Jim,

We don’t need another season without a CDM, one, if not the most important requirement. We have yet to replace Tettey.

100% this and oddly a position Jim is quick to complain about yet he doesn’t seem to need strengthening ??

[Indy 3,322]

16 minutes ago, Channon’s Windmill said:

Jim,

We don’t need another season without a CDM, one, if not the most important requirement. We have yet to replace Tettey.

I still can't believe Sorensen hasn't just been slotted in there when fit, he's composed, reads a game well, great on the ball and with more game time potential to be a fantastic player there. We still need another player there for cover an McLean isn't it.

[Jim Smith 2,339]

51 minutes ago, Channon’s Windmill said:

Jim,

We don’t need another season without a CDM, one, if not the most important requirement. We have yet to replace Tettey.

Fair point although I think Sorensen is and always has been the answer to that position at this level. 

[NewNestCarrow 203]

52 minutes ago, king canary said:

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong I'm aware some of the numbers that end up in the press about 50 or even 60% wage drops are clearly ****.

But I'm suggesting that smaller wage drops combined with some pretty sizable wages going off the bill this past summer (I'd imagine Normann, Kabak and Williams were amongst our highest paid players and there were reports Drmic was earning nearly £50k p/w when we signed him) would have led to a considerable drop, even if it doesn't total 50%.  

I am not sure that loans from Arsenal & Villa are ever going to be cheap! but it does seem that the torrent of contract-renewals has slowed (only 4 first-teamers given new deals this season, with 3 from the DS getting improved terms). We'll see when the accounts are released next autumn

It is massively disappointing to me that NCFC (and football, overall) is incapable of making a direct link between income & wages.

[Channon’s Windmill 335]

5 hours ago, Jim Smith said:

Fair point although I think Sorensen is and always has been the answer to that position at this level. 

Trouble there is the poor lad always has to fill in somewhere else to cover injured players, curse of the utility player. Not disagreeing, just never gets a run in one place. Really like him as a player though, vastly underrated.

[BigFish 1,988]

On 12/04/2023 at 13:23, Midlands Yellow said:

Onel has to stay if it’s Championship football next season. 

Why?

Reshaping the squad is difficult in 1) you can't make players leave & 2) Very few of our players would get more elsewhere or attract any sort of transfer fee.

So to rebuild you need to clear the decks of those you can get rid of e.g. those out of contract. We need a smaller, better squad so ship out Dowell & Hernandez and use the cash for a new attacking midfielder.

[Nexus_Canary 1,027]

6 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Why?

Reshaping the squad is difficult in 1) you can't make players leave & 2) Very few of our players would get more elsewhere or attract any sort of transfer fee.

So to rebuild you need to clear the decks of those you can get rid of e.g. those out of contract. We need a smaller, better squad so ship out Dowell & Hernandez and use the cash for a new attacking midfielder.

In case you blinked he's been a stand out player under Wagner.

[BigFish 1,988]

Just now, Nexus_Canary said:

In case you blinked he's been a stand out player under Wagner.

Now don't get me wrong, I like him as a player and a person (same goes for Dowell for that matter) but we need a rebuild and frankly he isn't what we need as part of a smaller better squad. But more importantly he is one we can move on.

[Nexus_Canary 1,027]

M

59 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Now don't get me wrong, I like him as a player and a person (same goes for Dowell for that matter) but we need a rebuild and frankly he isn't what we need as part of a smaller better squad. But more importantly he is one we can move on.

Yeh perhaps but smaller squad isn't something we can get away with.

Our injury records are not great, I mean right now we only have one first team centre back.

We always seem to have a Byram or two keeping our physios in work .