Statistical Domination

[hogesar 9,674]

Posted elsewhere but thought it was worthy of separate discussion.. 

Statistically we've dominated. Not just that, our XG has been higher than our opponents in the two games we've dominated. Why is that important?

One, it shows we are creating better chances than our opponents. This is either because our chances are more guilt edge, where the probability of scoring is considerably higher, or we are restricting the opposition defensively to very low probability or speculative attempts. More likely, a combination of the two.

Two, xG is the one stat that regularly, over a season, tends to match results and table positioning. If you consistently have a higher xG you end up at the right end of the table 99 times out of 100.

Finally, xG is based upon tens of thousands of shots from different locations and is based upon the likelihood of an average player scoring that goal. So if you have a better striker than the rest of the division, you can exceed xG. Although its rare, the only player in world football to regularly out perform their xG is Messi, which actually suggests most players have similar finishing ability and the differences aren't as huge as fans make out. I digress.

Edit to show how we compare to the rest of the division overall.

Edit: Adding Huddersfield match

***DEAN SMITH SACKED KLAXON***

***NO DISCERNIBLE IMPROVEMENT ABOVE KLAXON***

***COMPLETE TRANSFORMATION IN ONE TRAINING WEEK ABOVE KLAXON***

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17, 2023 by hogesar
Added Boro 23

[priceyrice 123]

Statistically, we have 1 point out of 9!

We must be one of the only clubs around were a large chunk of our fan base is happy to accept such a shower of ****

[cambridgeshire canary 6,720]

I mean its nice and good dominating games but does it mean anything when you get 0 points anyway?

[TIL 1010 4,748]

Statistically we have not won a game this season and only one since the turn of the year. What does that tell you ?

[hogesar 9,674]

3 minutes ago, priceyrice said:

Statistically, we have 1 point out of 9!

We must be one of the only clubs around were a large chunk of our fan base is happy to accept such a shower of ****

 

1 minute ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

I mean its nice and good dominating games but does it mean anything when you get 0 points anyway?

Sorry, that isn't the point of my post. 

Football has so many variables whereby luck is such a huge factor. Its why bad teams can beat good teams and in reality is the reason why it's such a loved sport.

Of course, our points total isn't good enough.

However, we can use xG to predict the likelihood of our performances moving forwards. It's subject to the players, fans etc staying on board because if they don't, there's more external factors that can influence.

xG is the strongest stat used by professional gambling syndicates to predict the outcome of matches and try to find value in the bookies odds. They have historically made millions from it.

Our xG suggests that we are playing more than well enough to win games.

The caveat is the quality of opposition we've played. We don't know for sure, but think they're some of the poorer teams. We'd need to see our xG against a bigger sample of teams to make a really solid prediction on our season, but what we can take from this is, despite some of the vitriol on here we are heading in the right direction.

[Monty13 2,234]

2 minutes ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

I mean its nice and good dominating games but does it mean anything when you get 0 points anyway?

No but it’s an indication that rather than some people feeling we’ve been unlucky the stats suggest we have been.

We’ve lost and drawn by fine margins. People seem to think we should have won easily but given the context of where we are right now as a club I don’t see that.

There’s a difference between blindly believing we will get better and seeing with your eyes the key incidents backed up by the stats that we are quite literally unlucky to be where we are.

Although admittedly it doesn’t change the fact that if that continues Smith will go. You can’t be an unlucky manager and survive rightly or wrongly as results matter and that luck should even out over a decent number of games.

[Dr Greenthumb 749]

11 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Posted elsewhere but thought it was worthy of separate discussion.. 

Statistically we've dominated. Not just that, our XG has been higher than our opponents in the two games we've dominated. Why is that important?

One, it shows we are creating better chances than our opponents. This is either because our chances are more guilt edge, where the probability of scoring is considerably higher, or we are restricting the opposition defensively to very low probability or speculative attempts. More likely, a combination of the two.

Two, xG is the one stat that regularly, over a season, tends to match results and table positioning. If you consistently have a higher xG you end up at the right end of the table 99 times out of 100.

Finally, xG is based upon tens of thousands of shots from different locations and is based upon the likelihood of an average player scoring that goal. So if you have a better striker than the rest of the division, you can exceed xG. Although its rare, the only player in world football to regularly out perform their xG is Messi, which actually suggests most players have similar finishing ability and the differences aren't as huge as fans make out. I digress.

We are creating better chances than our opponents? Hull had two better than ours yesterday and Cardiff had one much better than ours on the opening day. All the graphs in the world cannot hide the fact that we have one point from three championship games against teams we should be getting something from!

[hogesar 9,674]

1 minute ago, TIL 1010 said:

Statistically we have not won a game this season and only one since the turn of the year. What does that tell you ?

There's no value in attaching the Premier League results to this one. In the Premier League we were outplayed in the majority of our games and our xG was lower than our opponents - thus relegation.

This season has been the opposite in performances and generally speaking means thus - promotion / top end of the table.

That's being overly simplistic and I'm trying not to go full-geek on the xG stat and how effective it is.

[hogesar 9,674]

1 minute ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

We are creating better chances than our opponents? Hull had two better than ours yesterday and Cardiff had one much better than ours on the opening day. All the graphs in the world cannot hide the fact that we have one point from three championship games against teams we should be getting something from!

Your point is valid - xG is an accumulation of all the shots we've had and the likelihood of them being a goal.

So Cantwell shooting from 25 yards might be 0.1 whilst Pukki shooting inside the area on his right foot would be a 0.4, whilst from his left foot be a 0.25

Our xG is 0.75 from those 3 attempts but you could argue one Hull chance worth 0.65 is better than those 3 attempts combined.

However, we had the best chance in the game which was Ramsays miss. 

Hulls best chance wasn't created by them but by our own individual error.

[GodlyOtsemobor 2,310]

1 win since January is the only stat that matters at this point. Not good enough 

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,138]

This is the hope that I'm clinging onto. You don't really need stats to tell you that we've dominated every game we've played so far this year. At the risk of posting an unpopular opinion I don't think it's a coaching issue. I think our group of attacking players just don't suit each other's strengths or make up for each others weaknesses. Every game it's like it's the first time they've played together and they have absolutely no understanding, chances get created by individual quality, not by players being on the same wavelength and knowing what passes to play and when, what runs Pukki is making and what type of balls we should be playing in. Rashica has had a poor understanding with Pukki from day 1, Dowell is rubbish, far too laid back and weak as a player, Sargent isn't ever going to create chances, Hernandez has gone backwards as a footballer since 2019 and just doesn't do the same things he did back at his peak, Cantwell is trying but is playing too deep and never had the same link up with Pukki that Buendia, Stiepermann and Vrancic did so is trying to force things too much. The early signs suggest that Nunez will playu the type of passes that can create chances, but we can't be relying on just one player.

If we're being honest I don't think even the top managers in the world could teach Rashica or Sargent how to play early, fast quality through balls into Pukki. i don't think any top manager could teach Dowell how not constantly shirk responsibility and play the easy sideways or backwards pass all the time, I think a top manager just wouldn't ever sign him in the first place because he doesn't have the right mentality. Cantwell there's hope for but it's just not clicking yet. I get why people are angry at Smith and want a change but honestly from my perspective I don't see the results as his fault. It's poor defensive errors and a team he's inherited that doesn't make sense at the sum of it's parts. It's poor recruitment, a lack of confidence and a relegation hangover that's giving us these issues right now imo. 

[Dr Greenthumb 749]

2 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Your point is valid - xG is an accumulation of all the shots we've had and the likelihood of them being a goal.

So Cantwell shooting from 25 yards might be 0.1 whilst Pukki shooting inside the area on his right foot would be a 0.4, whilst from his left foot be a 0.25

Our xG is 0.75 from those 3 attempts but you could argue one Hull chance worth 0.65 is better than those 3 attempts combined.

However, we had the best chance in the game which was Ramsays miss. 

Hulls best chance wasn't created by them but by our own individual error.

Our third individual error this season. 
 

it’s tragic, it’s getting everyone down at the moment and I applaud that you are looking at positives, but these stats aren’t what I want to see. I’m travelling 200 miles to the game Tuesday, it’s goals I need to see, not Todd Cantwell hitting balls at the keeper from 25 yards or pukki constantly sulking and fouling their players. 
 

Smith needs to do away with this terrible formation, get some energy in the middle and drop the dreadful milot Rashica 

[Mason 47 1,379]

Be it xG or the simple test of the eye, we haven't been totally terrible and go through patches of the opposition chasing shadows.

Unfortunately there is no goodwill to rely on this year. At this stage in the public opinion, we aren't supposed to be a 'work in progress'.

Two wins in the next 5 days and it'll all feel totally different, which is what we have to hope for. I'd agree that currently the wrong tactical formation is being used, but I think this is to accommodate Rashica who is an absolute non contributor at the moment. If it was me I would try 3-5-2 as our current personnel is very suited to it, but equally a return to the trusty 4-2-3-1 would suffice.

[Branston Pickle 3,659]

Having watched two out of the three league games so far, and looking at the stats yesterday, it does feel odd that we only have one point.

But it’s what we have and need to live with it.  I think the performances are quite close, it’s marginal things that can easily change.  But they do need to and quickly. 

I do have a very relevant case study, as I recall saying the same thing 4 seasons ago in 2018/19 when the vast majority were calling for DF’s head.  Off an uninspiring first (part) season,  he didn’t have much at all behind him and the opening results were poor but the performances were only small margins away from getting results. I recall losing to WBA at home, I still reckon it was one of our best ‘playing’ performances that season but we lost 4-3 (due to a Krul howler, them scoring a pen and us missing one). We lost the next game to Sheff U, got a stodgy win v PNE and then were stuffed 3-0 at home to Leeds. We had a record of 1-1-3.  The vast majority were very much calling for DF to go but some of us could see that it was close to working out.  Thankfully it did, and we won the title.

I do have another with Franke at Brentford, but can’t be bothered to go into detail, just to say that it worked out fine in the end.

My point of course Isn’t that it will necessarily happen again, but that it might. We don’t seem ‘that’ far off in performances but time is clearly ticking- it’s ultimately a results based business and we need to start getting some points on the board. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by Branston Pickle

[TIL 1010 4,748]

14 minutes ago, hogesar said:

.

However, we had the best chance in the game which was Ramsays miss. 

Hulls best chance wasn't created by them but by our own individual error.

Have i missed something here and i am sure if i have you will tell me in your usual manner but didn't Hull score two goals ?

[The Real Buh 3,432]

Just now, TIL 1010 said:

Have i missed something here and i am sure if i have you will tell me in your usual manner but didn't Hull score two goals ?

Yeah buutttt ….. STATS!

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

What the statistics fail to reflect is the collective brain farts the team seems to be prone to that result in the opposition getting easy goals that lose us the game. 

Maybe all that's missing is the confidence that comes from actually winning a game. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

18 minutes ago, Dr Greenthumb said:

Our third individual error this season. 
 

it’s tragic, it’s getting everyone down at the moment and I applaud that you are looking at positives, but these stats aren’t what I want to see. I’m travelling 200 miles to the game Tuesday, it’s goals I need to see, not Todd Cantwell hitting balls at the keeper from 25 yards or pukki constantly sulking and fouling their players. 
 

Smith needs to do away with this terrible formation, get some energy in the middle and drop the dreadful milot Rashica 

 The stats show the formation is actually working well, but performance is being let down by individual error. I would say that that suggests the best answer is to persist and have the individuals who are making the schoolboy individual errors up their game. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[TIL 1010 4,748]

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

What the statistics fail to reflect is the collective brain farts the team seems to be prone to that result in the opposition getting easy goals that lose us the game. 

Maybe all that's missing is the confidence that comes from actually winning a game. 

The team have been having brain farts ever since Smith turned up in November last year in more games than you could shake a stick at and 33 games later he has not addressed that fact.

[Branston Pickle 3,659]

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

What the statistics fail to reflect is the collective brain farts the team seems to be prone to that result in the opposition getting easy goals that lose us the game. 

Maybe all that's missing is the confidence that comes from actually winning a game. 

We can hope so - the sad thing is that it seems some are more interested in being proved ‘right’ than us winning, which is pretty pathetic.

[Mason 47 1,379]

Just now, Branston Pickle said:

I do have a very relevant case study, as I recall saying the same thing 4 seasons ago in 2018/19 when the vast majority were calling for DF’s head.  Off an uninspiring first (part) season,  he didn’t have much at all behind him and the opening results were poor but the performances were only small margins away from getting results. I recall losing to WBA at home, I still reckon it was one of our best ‘playing’ performances that season but we lost 4-3 (due to a Krul howler, them scoring a pen and us missing one). We lost the next game to Sheff U, got a stodgy win v PNE and then were stuffed 3-0 at home to Leeds. We had a record of 1-1-3.  The vast majority were very much calling for DF to go but some of us could see that it was close to working out.  Thankfully it did, and we won the title

I've always looked at the Cardiff cup game from that early run as the key moment for that season.

Debut for Max and Stiepermann playing + excelling behind the striker changed Farkes starting XI. Up til then we'd tried to cope with Pinto or Marshall at RB and both were glaring weaknesses, Stiepi finally connected the back to the front.

I also thought it was key when Hanley got injured soon after, as possession would often end when he had to punt long. Zimmermann, Klose + Godfrey were much more comfortable on the ball, and all combined helped to unlock our real flow as a team.

There is part of me that hopes 3 games in 6 days now, having to chop and change for fatigue, might reveal similar truths.

[Mr Angry 1,561]

3 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

The team have been having brain farts ever since Smith turned up in November last year in more games than you could shake a stick at and 33 games later he has not addressed that fact.

Which was a continuation of how we started last season under Farke.

[Boris 56]

stats and  especially xG always work and say truth on long run.

hogesar try to say that if we keep this stats and rating most of games results without doubt will be on our way long term.Its simple mathematics

Unfortunately most people is hard to focus on long picture and focus and see only what is now.

season is very long and few wins fast will change mood around but I must agree that 1 pt against 3 quite average opponents is far from ideal.

Must win on Tuesday to be solved all nerves around fans and team then  Friday in front of Sky we can show to all that we are still top 3 material!

 

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

1 minute ago, Branston Pickle said:

We can hope so - the sad thing is that it seems some are more interested in being proved ‘right’ than us winning, which is pretty pathetic.

I'm not sure they're interested in being proved right as such; they are right as far as they're concerned, but if what they want happens and things are still wrong then they'll just move on to something else being wrong instead of contemplating the possibility that what they wanted previously might have been a bad idea, and maybe reflect on that as something to suggest that maybe they shouldn't be so forceful about their opinions when it comes to sacking people. 

[norfolkngood 1,087]

Stats are ok but can cloudy the water a bit to real football 

Gilmour was one of the best at Soccerbot so he is stats were excellent at that but did not produce it on a Saturday 

[TIL 1010 4,748]

1 minute ago, Mr Angry said:

Which was a continuation of how we started last season under Farke.

Agreed Mr A but wasn't it partly responsible for bringing about the demise of Farke and Smith surely was brought in for among other things to stop it happening which he has failed miserably to do ?

[hogesar 9,674]

14 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

Have i missed something here and i am sure if i have you will tell me in your usual manner but didn't Hull score two goals ?

Yes, I didnt say otherwise.

I simply referred to the best chance statistically each side had.

[GodlyOtsemobor 2,310]

15 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

What the statistics fail to reflect is the collective brain farts the team seems to be prone to that result in the opposition getting easy goals that lose us the game. 

Maybe all that's missing is the confidence that comes from actually winning a game. 

I seem to remember alot of people saying last year that we wouldn't be punished for the brain farts this year in the championship as it's not as tough as the prem on mistakes. 

And that this is a terrible league quality wise, well we've had 3 brain farts and been punished 3 times. Funny that isn't it. 

I think it's alot less a confidence issue (although it does contribute) I think it's a quality issue, the fact that we're still relying on Krul Hanley McLean and pukki being the "spine" after 2 seasons in the premier league is very very telling, we could have (and probably should have) upgraded on all 4 by now. 

Edited August 14, 2022 by GodlyOtsemobor

[TIL 1010 4,748]

1 minute ago, hogesar said:

Yes, I didnt say otherwise.

I simply referred to the best chance statistically each side had.

So they also somehow managed to score a second which was not their best chance . How did they manage that when we handed the first goal for them on a plate ?

[hogesar 9,674]

The first goal had a higher xG than their second one. Primarily because of the amount of players inbetween the player and the goal, I assume.