How many points this season to survive?

[All the Germans 1,085]

9 hours ago, Ian said:

So did Burnley need more than 29 points to survive or not?

My point is that it is very odd to argue that the bottom three teams needed 40 points to overhaul Burnley and avoid relegation IMO, because that would imply the results that occurred in reality would be different. If that's the case, it could have been that the bottom three took more points off Burnley and/or other teams in lower positions, and therefore the points total to overhaul Burnley may have been vastly different.

Ultimately, you can't say either way. The only thing you can factually say IMO is that Burnley needed 29 points to avoid relegation last season, but on average you need more than that to survive.

I see your point but the same question back at you, how many points did Fulham need to survive? The same principle you mentioned applies regarding the results - if Burnley had only got 29, the others could have got more and then 29 may not have been enough.

For a team in the bottom three to survive, they need to be overtake the team in 17th.

[Petriix 2,853]

18 hours ago, Ian said:

So did Burnley need more than 29 points to survive or not?

My point is that it is very odd to argue that the bottom three teams needed 40 points to overhaul Burnley and avoid relegation IMO, because that would imply the results that occurred in reality would be different. If that's the case, it could have been that the bottom three took more points off Burnley and/or other teams in lower positions, and therefore the points total to overhaul Burnley may have been vastly different.

Ultimately, you can't say either way. The only thing you can factually say IMO is that Burnley needed 29 points to avoid relegation last season, but on average you need more than that to survive.

On the contrary, it's often the more complicated answer with counterintuitive reasoning which is more accurate.

Claiming that 29 points would have been enough last season is true, but only for Burnley (or anyone who finished above them). But it's equally true that any of the bottom 3 would have needed 40 points to surpass Burnley and survive.

Our situation is much more comparable to one of the bottom 3 trying to surpass 17th place so my reasoning is entirely appropriate. Sure, there's some room for considering the possibility that beating the team in 17th might reduce their total, but that would make it 36 points, not 29.

[Heading South 24]

22 hours ago, lake district canary said:

Burnley I think are down without their talisman Chris Wood, but Newcastle/Watford/Everton/Leeds will likely improve, so the points tally needed will go up quite quickly imo.  We will obviously have to keep pace with that to give ourselves a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if what is needed is in the high 30's with Brenford sucked into it too. 23 points needed from 17 games to give us 36 in all. Should be enough.  Six wins, 5 draws, or 7 wins and 2 draws.

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

Man City home 0

Liverpool away 0

Southampton away 1

Brentford home 3

Leeds away 1

Chelsea home 0

Brighton away 1

Burnley home 3

Man Utd away 0

Newcastle home 3

Villa away 0

West Ham home 3

Wolves away 0

Spurs home 3

            Total - 37 points

If we get to those last four games with the previous results as I suggest (which doesn't look unreasonable to me, if we can play like yesterday - any one of those last four games could yield the results we need. 

 

God man if you think any of those teams will be as demoralised and bad as Everton were , you need to give your head a wobble , yes we played well and with a spring in our step …….. But against a very poor Everton who looked liked they couldn’t be bothered to play for Benitez anymore….. and had to rely on an own goal  !

[nutty nigel 7,649]

9 minutes ago, Heading South said:

God man if you think any of those teams will be as demoralised and bad as Everton were , you need to give your head a wobble , yes we played well and with a spring in our step …….. But against a very poor Everton who looked liked they couldn’t be bothered to play for Benitez anymore….. and had to rely on an own goal  !

So what do you think?

[If wed kept Howie.. 217]

around 32 points will be enough, maybe less..

[Heading South 24]

12 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

So what do you think?

Baring a minor miracle 25/30 , realistically 25 tops , if you think we have gone from a team / squad that just cannot compete at this level because we lack nouse and physical presence, most supporters view and that of the media into a team that can do all of those previous failings overnight and because we beat a lack lustre Everton , then as I said give your head a wobble .

Be delighted to eat humble pie , but just can’t see it … COYYs

[TheGunnShow 6,027]

31-32 seems about right to me this year. I think I said 34 in an earlier thread this season, but I think there will be so many surprise results due to fixture congestion that teams with less depth could be hit harder than teams with a bit less quality in their opening line up.

I agree that we could pull it off, but the chances are very slim, and we need a surprise or two along the way. Realistically (or, as realistic as such a notion may be), that is at home. Win our home games, and I think we'd do it. But Chelsea and City....especially a City in this sort of form and not the one wracked with defensive injuries we famously beat 3-2 (although we had a litany of injuries throughout the team, not just in defence) will be extremely hard asks.

Edited January 17, 2022 by TheGunnShow

[Midlands Yellow 4,112]

Win every match left and Lakey could still be on for his top 4 prediction. Draw a couple, it’s still the Europa League. 

Edited January 17, 2022 by Midlands Yellow

[Big O 225]

33 but only if we beat Watford. 

[Dean Coneys boots 1,407]

Give over - we wont get anywhere near, sadly. Even if we improve we have left far too much mountain to climb and Newcastle will buy the points they need. Get prepping for Champs next season - relegation is nailed on after that dismal first half of the season- but lets aim to fight hard and be a nuisance for the rest of the season. Am sure a few will call me negative but I am aiming for realism here. 

[Heading South 24]

58 minutes ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

Give over - we wont get anywhere near, sadly. Even if we improve we have left far too much mountain to climb and Newcastle will buy the points they need. Get prepping for Champs next season - relegation is nailed on after that dismal first half of the season- but lets aim to fight hard and be a nuisance for the rest of the season. Am sure a few will call me negative but I am aiming for realism here. 

At last a sense of reality , upset a few and go down fighting COYYs

[yellowrider120 793]

I think the idea we could beat West Ham AND Spurs at FCR is pure fantasy. I think we are probably five points from where we really would need to be in order to have a decent fighting chance of staying up. 18 points now would make all the difference. 

That said, we could still do it but home games v Palace, Geordies, Burnley and Brighton MUST be won. Ditto this Friday. Any draws or defeats in that lot and it's game over. Even if we did win those fixtures that drags us up to 28 but we would probably need another six or so to survive. A whole collection of favourable circumstances must align for that to happen. 

1. None of the other three manage any meaningful sort of run
2. The key 'spine' of our team must stay / get injury free (Krul, Hanley, Normann and Pukki)
3. Idah's Everton performance must be the minimum he produces for rest of the season. I actually do think he COULD be the catalyst that gets us over the line. So few teams now play 'two up' especially one with the pace and power of Idah that centre halves are unused to how to handle them. That coupled with the foil of the intelligent movement of Pukki MIGHT destabilise the very best of defences. Optimistic? Quite possibly but lets face it not one Yellow seriously envisaged Idah being capable of a performance like he put in so why not??   

[nutty nigel 7,649]

23 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

I think the idea we could beat West Ham AND Spurs at FCR is pure fantasy. I think we are probably five points from where we really would need to be in order to have a decent fighting chance of staying up. 18 points now would make all the difference. 

That said, we could still do it but home games v Palace, Geordies, Burnley and Brighton MUST be won. Ditto this Friday. Any draws or defeats in that lot and it's game over. Even if we did win those fixtures that drags us up to 28 but we would probably need another six or so to survive. A whole collection of favourable circumstances must align for that to happen. 

1. None of the other three manage any meaningful sort of run
2. The key 'spine' of our team must stay / get injury free (Krul, Hanley, Normann and Pukki)
3. Idah's Everton performance must be the minimum he produces for rest of the season. I actually do think he COULD be the catalyst that gets us over the line. So few teams now play 'two up' especially one with the pace and power of Idah that centre halves are unused to how to handle them. That coupled with the foil of the intelligent movement of Pukki MIGHT destabilise the very best of defences. Optimistic? Quite possibly but lets face it not one Yellow seriously envisaged Idah being capable of a performance like he put in so why not??   

I wouldn't want to be as cocksure about where and when we can pick up points. You only need to think back to the four relegation seasons which seems are remembered with the details blanked out. Just a reminder...

04/05 Drew at Spurs, drew at Man City and beat man utd.

13/14 Beat Spurs, drew with Man City, drew at Chelsea.

15/16 Drew at Liverpool, won at Man utd, drew v Man City

19/20 Beat Man City, Drew with Arsenal and drew with Spurs.

So it's more than likely we will get up to three unexpected results. And extremely unlikely we will get none.

[Move Klose 303]

On 16/01/2022 at 19:36, lake district canary said:

Burnley I think are down without their talisman Chris Wood, but Newcastle/Watford/Everton/Leeds will likely improve, so the points tally needed will go up quite quickly imo.  We will obviously have to keep pace with that to give ourselves a chance, but I wouldn't be surprised if what is needed is in the high 30's with Brenford sucked into it too. 23 points needed from 17 games to give us 36 in all. Should be enough.  Six wins, 5 draws, or 7 wins and 2 draws.

Of the games remaining.......

Watford away 3

Crystal Palace home 3

Man City home 0

Liverpool away 0

Southampton away 1

Brentford home 3

Leeds away 1

Chelsea home 0

Brighton away 1

Burnley home 3

Man Utd away 0

Newcastle home 3

Villa away 0

West Ham home 3

Wolves away 0

Spurs home 3

            Total - 37 points

If we get to those last four games with the previous results as I suggest (which doesn't look unreasonable to me, if we can play like yesterday - any one of those last four games could yield the results we need. 

 

6 wins from our last 8 home games. 🤣

Not a chance that happens.

We won't hit 30 points. No way.

[Move Klose 303]

On 17/01/2022 at 18:36, Heading South said:

Baring a minor miracle 25/30 , realistically 25 tops , if you think we have gone from a team / squad that just cannot compete at this level because we lack nouse and physical presence, most supporters view and that of the media into a team that can do all of those previous failings overnight and because we beat a lack lustre Everton , then as I said give your head a wobble .

Be delighted to eat humble pie , but just can’t see it … COYYs

If we get 4 more wins this season I'd be suprised. Think we end up with between 25-30 points personally.

You've got to be realistic in this position. We've won 3 out of 21 so far. All of a sudden we are going to 7/8 out of out last 17 games. Not going to happen.

To even suggest we win 6 out of our last 8 home games is beyond delusion.

1 team out of us, Newcastle, Burnley, Watford will pick up and start putting points on the board, and from watching our last few seasons in the prem it won't be us.

Unfortunately there aren't 3 worse sides than us.

[cornish sam 966]

21 minutes ago, Move Klose said:

If we get 4 more wins this season I'd be suprised. Think we end up with between 25-30 points personally.

You've got to be realistic in this position. We've won 3 out of 21 so far. All of a sudden we are going to 7/8 out of out last 17 games. Not going to happen.

To even suggest we win 6 out of our last 8 home games is beyond delusion.

1 team out of us, Newcastle, Burnley, Watford will pick up and start putting points on the board, and from watching our last few seasons in the prem it won't be us.

Unfortunately there aren't 3 worse sides than us.

Nice to see you're being positive today... Since Dean Smith took over there are actually 4 teams worse than us and 2 that are as bad as us (on total points scored, on a PPG basis Leicester are far better). Granted we started from a lower base, but at the current rate we would stay up...

10		Southampton	11	3	4	4	16:21	-5	13
11		Crystal Palace	11	3	3	5	17:17	0	12
12		Brighton	10	2	6	2	10:10	0	12
13		Leeds	10	3	3	4	14:22	-8	12
14		Leicester	8	3	2	3	16:16	0	11
15		Brentford	11	3	2	6	12:21	-9	11
16		Norwich	11	3	2	6	7:20	-13	11
17		Newcastle	10	1	5	4	9:20	-11	8
18		Everton	9	1	2	6	8:18	-10	5
19		Burnley	7	0	4	3	6:11	-5	4
20		Watford	9	1	1	7	11:19	-8	4

 

[Green Canary 21]

That's generous. I make it 2 wins and 8 points

[Besthorpe-48 103]

The bookies must be petrified by the negative certainty in all these posts. I don't think that this far into the season the team in 17th had so few points. 

I understand the lowest points for the team in 17th was 34. 

So putting those two points together a return of 32/33 points should be enough. A point a game gets us to 30. It gets Watford to 33 . But  a win on Friday would change those numbers to 32 for both teams.

It's that close and any speculation is just that

At least its become a discussion point which is  good news.

[Yobocop 1,105]

29 points