The *LAST* five...

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

4 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Because I'm that guy...

Norwich       35                   76                  2.17   Next three: Sheffield W (a), Forest (a), Blackburn (h)
Watford        35                   66                  1.89   Next three: Cardiff (a), Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Swansea      34                   66                  1.94   Next three: Luton (a), Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h)
Brentford      34                   63                  1.85   Next three: Blackburn (a), Derby (a), Forest (h)
Reading        35                   60                  1.71   Next three: Forest (a), Birmingham (a), QPR (h)
Barnsley       35                   58                  1.66   Next three: Bournemouth (a), Wycombe (a), Sheffield W (h)

Absolutely love the symmetry here... away, away, home.

Incidentally, if you fancy a cheeky acca on the five teams below us all winning, it's north of 100/1... tempted? With William Hill's bet boost, it's 135/1. I've had a quid.

I have a feeling that by the time Swansea's game at Luton is finished you will have lost your £1. But we should all stick together so I'll risk £1 of my own. Just in case. 

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

1 minute ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I have a feeling that by the time Swansea's game at Luton is finished you will have lost your £1. But we should all stick together so I'll risk £1 of my own. Just in case. 

Any more for any more? Imagine if it happened...

[First Wazzock 902]

4 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Any more for any more? Imagine if it happened...

It's like throwing your money out of the window of a fast moving train...🤣

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

2 minutes ago, First Wazzock said:

It's like throwing your money out of the window of a fast moving train...🤣

I have my doubts that Brentford will even win their game on Friday, but you never know. Coming on here to gloat at you would be another brilliant potential outcome of this coming in... 😉

 

[First Wazzock 902]

Don't get me wrong, I wish you all the very best.

But, judging how difficult it is for us each week... to say it is a long shot...!

But stranger things...Good luck, I'd actually love to see you succeed!

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

1 minute ago, First Wazzock said:

Don't get me wrong, I wish you all the very best.

But, judging how difficult it is for us each week... to say it is a long shot...!

But stranger things...Good luck, I'd actually love to see you succeed!

Oh, I know how unlikely it is to happen.

Even a Watford/Swansea/Brentford triple is about 11/1... just goes to show how strongly the dice are loaded in our favour at this point of the season.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,431]

35 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Oh, I know how unlikely it is to happen.

Even a Watford/Swansea/Brentford triple is about 11/1... just goes to show how strongly the dice are loaded in our favour at this point of the season.

Best I can get is 365   9.56/1 plus 5% bonus . I’m in . 

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

On 10/03/2021 at 22:17, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Best I can get is 365   9.56/1 plus 5% bonus . I’m in . 

Well played, sir!

And @First Wazzock, @dylanisabaddog and I were only a late Reading winner away from coming up trumps! 😉

Let's get the maths done now, so we can see what the worst-case scenario looks like if we somehow lose today.

Norwich       35                   76                  2.17   Next three: Sheffield W (a), Forest (a), Blackburn (h)
Watford        36                   69                  1.92   Next three: Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h) Sheffield W (h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Swansea      35                   69                  1.97   Next three: Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h), Birmingham (a)
Brentford      35                   66                  1.89   Next three: Derby (a), Forest (h), Huddersfield (a)
Reading        36                   61                  1.69   Next three: Birmingham (a), QPR (h), Barnsley (a)
Barnsley       36                   61                  1.69   Next three: Wycombe (a), Sheffield W (h), Reading (h)

Maximum points available: Norwich 109, Swansea 102, Watford 99, Brentford 99, Reading 91, Barnsley 91.

Hopefully we'll be able to add three more points to our total later today, which would put us on PPG target for 100 points. Looking further ahead, our next six are all against bottom-half teams (Preston, Huddersfield and Derby to follow the next three). If we win all those we'll be on 94 points with five games to go, and that's probably going to be enough even before we start our tough run-in. Bear in mind that Swansea and Brentford both play Watford on the last two matchdays, and that gives us even more 'wiggle room'.

Swansea's next two look bloody hard, if they win both of those then they're surely in pole position for second place. Watford are also on a roll, and their next three look eminently winnable. Let's hope the Rotherham game goes ahead, Rotherham haven't played for a while due to a Covid-19 outbreak, so hopefully they'll be well rested if it happens. Brentford's next three are also eminently winnable, but to be honest none of our next four fixtures are especially challenging on paper.

Teams that can mathematically no longer finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield W, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest, Preston, Blackburn. Win today and we can add Luton, Bristol City and Stoke to that list, which officially guarantees us a top-half finish! 😄

If we win our next three, we will be mathematically guaranteed a top-four finish. That'd be a nice way to go to the international break, wouldn't it?

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,431]

39 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Well played, sir!

And @First Wazzock, @dylanisabaddog and I were only a late Reading winner away from coming up trumps! 😉

Let's get the maths done now, so we can see what the worst-case scenario looks like if we somehow lose today.

Norwich       35                   76                  2.17   Next three: Sheffield W (a), Forest (a), Blackburn (h)
Watford        36                   69                  1.92   Next three: Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h) Sheffield W (h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Swansea      35                   69                  1.97   Next three: Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h), Birmingham (a)
Brentford      35                   66                  1.89   Next three: Derby (a), Forest (h), Huddersfield (a)
Reading        36                   61                  1.69   Next three: Birmingham (a), QPR (h), Barnsley (a)
Barnsley       36                   61                  1.69   Next three: Wycombe (a), Sheffield W (h), Reading (h)

Maximum points available: Norwich 109, Swansea 102, Watford 99, Brentford 99, Reading 91, Barnsley 91.

Hopefully we'll be able to add three more points to our total later today, which would put us on PPG target for 100 points. Looking further ahead, our next six are all against bottom-half teams (Preston, Huddersfield and Derby to follow the next three). If we win all those we'll be on 94 points with five games to go, and that's probably going to be enough even before we start our tough run-in. Bear in mind that Swansea and Brentford both play Watford on the last two matchdays, and that gives us even more 'wiggle room'.

Swansea's next two look bloody hard, if they win both of those then they're surely in pole position for second place. Watford are also on a roll, and their next three look eminently winnable. Let's hope the Rotherham game goes ahead, Rotherham haven't played for a while due to a Covid-19 outbreak, so hopefully they'll be well rested if it happens. Brentford's next three are also eminently winnable, but to be honest none of our next four fixtures are especially challenging on paper.

Teams that can mathematically no longer finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield W, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest, Preston, Blackburn. Win today and we can add Luton, Bristol City and Stoke to that list, which officially guarantees us a top-half finish! 😄

If we win our next three, we will be mathematically guaranteed a top-four finish. That'd be a nice way to go to the international break, wouldn't it?

Dirty money really Woolfie . I was gutted with Watford’s late winner ☹️

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

Ready for the update, stats fans?

Norwich       36                   79                  2.19   Next three: Forest (a), Blackburn (h), Preston (a)
Watford        36                   69                  1.92   Next three: Rotherham (a), Birmingham (h) Sheffield W (h)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Swansea      35                   69                  1.97   Next three: Bournemouth (a), Cardiff (h), Birmingham (a)
Brentford      35                   66                  1.89   Next three: Derby (a), Forest (h), Huddersfield (a)
Reading        36                   61                  1.69   Next three: Birmingham (a), QPR (h), Barnsley (a)
Barnsley       36                   61                  1.69   Next three: Wycombe (a), Sheffield W (h), Reading (h)

Maximum points available: Norwich 109, Swansea 102, Watford 99, Brentford 99, Reading 91, Barnsley 91.

Teams that cannot mathematically finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield W, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest, Luton, Preston, Blackburn, Bristol City, Stoke (minimum possible finish: 11th).

Points required to guarantee a playoff place: 8

Points required to guarantee promotion: 21

Points required to guarantee title: 24

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

At least we're safe this season. 😉

[Crafty Canary 495]

Points required to guarantee the title is 30 not 24. This assumes that Swansea win all their remaining 11 games.

[Mr Angry 1,561]

6 minutes ago, Crafty Canary said:

Points required to guarantee the title is 30 not 24. This assumes that Swansea win all their remaining 11 games.

69 +33 = 102. 79 + 24 = 103. So points guaranteed to win the title is 24, unless my maths is hopelessly wrong.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

Going back through the history of 3 points for a win, no team has failed to be promoted from the 2nd tier with 91 points. Sunderland came 3rd with 90 points in the late 90's

The first few years of 3ppw there were only 42 or 44 games per season, I think  2ppg was more than enough every time

Therefore, another 12 points should do it 

Unless this season is the one that breaks the mould.....

 

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

8 minutes ago, Mr Angry said:

69 +33 = 102. 79 + 24 = 103. So points guaranteed to win the title is 24, unless my maths is hopelessly wrong.

Yep. The Official Pinkun Forum Nerdy Geek Statsman (OPFNGS) would not make such a perfunctory mathematical error.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

5 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Yep. The Official Pinkun Forum Nerdy Geek Statsman (OPFNGS) would not make such a perfunctory mathematical error.

I never doubted your geekability  for one second Wolfo. Your geekatiousness is there for all to learn from.

Edited March 14, 2021 by wcorkcanary

[Mr Angry 1,561]

4 minutes ago, Feedthewolf said:

Yep. The Official Pinkun Forum Nerdy Geek Statsman (OPFNGS) would not make such a perfunctory mathematical error.

I imagine you triple checked and then had independent auditors in to verify it 🤣🤣🤣

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

3 minutes ago, Mr Angry said:

I imagine you triple checked and then had independent auditors in to verify it 🤣🤣🤣

My geek brain edits itself.

[Crafty Canary 495]

51 minutes ago, Crafty Canary said:

Points required to guarantee the title is 30 not 24. This assumes that Swansea win all their remaining 11 games.

Sorry, my mental arithmetic has gone haywire. You are right that 24 points guarantees the title.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Crafty Canary

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

1 hour ago, Feedthewolf said:

My geek brain edits itself.

Geekloop.

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

1 minute ago, wcorkcanary said:

Geekloop.

Is this the Dutch U19 international we've been linked with?

[sonyc 5,519]

1 hour ago, Feedthewolf said:

Yep. The Official Pinkun Forum Nerdy Geek Statsman (OPFNGS) would not make such a perfunctory mathematical error.

Let me ask what is possibly a stupid question FTW. Because the top 6 teams have a few fixtures each to play each other, then not all those maximum points available can possibly be gained for each of the individual clubs - say we beat Watford and Barnsley who are in the top 6. That would mean Barnsley and Watford would each only get 3 points less as their maximum total. Same with Swansea and Brentford because they play each other. So I do realise and understand the points totals available - but they really only apply individually. Practically, those totals cannot be won by each of the top 6 teams. It means the games against the top 6 are the crucial ones doesn't it? Am I being too geeky for my own good?!

Edited March 14, 2021 by sonyc

[Surfer 1,547]

Applied to calculating points needed to win the division those top six match ups don't matter, except for Norwich v Watford, as there only needs to be one team to overtake us, but for promotion yes Brentford v Watford and Watford v Swansea certainly do matter as it needs two teams to overtake us.

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

43 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Let me ask what is possibly a stupid question FTW. Because the top 6 teams have a few fixtures each to play each other, then not all those maximum points available can possibly be gained for each of the individual clubs - say we beat Watford and Barnsley who are in the top 6. That would mean Barnsley and Watford would each only get 3 points less as their maximum total. Same with Swansea and Brentford because they play each other. So I do realise and understand the points totals available - but they really only apply individually. Practically, those totals cannot be won by each of the top 6 teams. It means the games against the top 6 are the crucial ones doesn't it? Am I being too geeky for my own good?!

What @Surfer said is correct. The title is a binary thing, with Swansea being the 'zero' as they're the ones who can accumulate the most points other than us. Watford have to play both Brentford and Swansea, and if they lose both then both Brentford and Swansea could hypothetically accrue maximum points (they don't have to play each other again). Therefore, hypothetically, you could end the season with Swansea on 102 and Brentford on 99, which means we could be in the playoffs on 98 points.

There's no such thing as too geeky for your own good. Knowledge is sexy.

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

A decent night's work.

Team            Pld     Pts   GD        PPG   Next five
Norwich       36       79     +27      2.19   Forest (a), Blackburn (H), Preston (a), Huddersfield (H), Derby (a)
Watford        37       72     +26      1.95   Birmingham (H), Sheffield W (H), Middlesbrough (a), Reading (H), Luton (a)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Swansea      36       69     +17      1.92   Next three: Cardiff (H), Birmingham (a), Preston (H), Millwall (a), Wycombe (H)
Brentford      36       67     +26     1.86   Next three: Forest (H), Huddersfield (a), Birmingham (H), Preston (a), Millwall (H)
Reading        36       61     +12      1.69   Next three: Birmingham (a), QPR (H), Barnsley (a), Derby (H), Watford (a)
Barnsley       36       61     +6        1.69   Next three: Wycombe (a), Sheffield W (H), Reading (H), Luton (a), Middlesbrough (H)

Maximum points available: Norwich 109, Swansea 99, Watford 99, Brentford 97, Reading 91, Barnsley 91.

Teams that cannot mathematically finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield W, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest, Luton, Preston, Blackburn, Bristol City, Stoke (minimum possible finish: 11th).

Points required to guarantee a playoff place: 8

Points required to guarantee promotion: 19 (due to Watford still having to play both Swansea and Brentford; if Watford lost both, Brentford could still reach 97)

Points required to guarantee title: 21

Edited March 16, 2021 by Feedthewolf

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

.
 

Edited March 16, 2021 by Feedthewolf

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

Brentford (H) WON
Luton Town (H) WON
Sheffield Wednesday (A) WON
Nottingham Forest (A) WON
Blackburn Rovers (H)

Right... let's take Reading and Barnsley out of the equation.

Team            Pld     Pts   GD        PPG   Next five
Norwich       37       82     +29      2.22   Blackburn (H), Preston (a), Huddersfield (H), Derby (a), Bournemouth (H)
Watford        37       72     +26      1.95   Birmingham (H), Sheffield W (H), Middlesbrough (a), Reading (H), Luton (a)
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Swansea      36       69     +17      1.92   Next three: Cardiff (H), Birmingham (a), Preston (H), Millwall (a), Wycombe (H)
Brentford     36       67     +26      1.86   Next three: Forest (H), Huddersfield (a), Birmingham (H), Preston (a), Millwall (H)

Maximum points available: Norwich 109, Swansea 99, Watford 99, Brentford 97.

Teams that cannot mathematically finish above us: Wycombe, Sheffield W, Rotherham, Birmingham, Coventry, Derby, Huddersfield, Forest, Luton, Preston, Blackburn, Bristol City, Stoke, QPR, Millwall (minimum possible finish: 9th).

Points required to guarantee a playoff place: 5

Points required to guarantee promotion: 16 (due to Watford still having to play both Swansea and Brentford; if Watford lost both, Brentford could still reach 97)

Points required to guarantee title: 18

Frankly, none of our next five after the international break look that frightening aside from Watford; it's not unfathomable to think we could have the title in the bag and be on 97 points before Watford arrive at FCR.

Preston (A)
Huddersfield (H)
Derby (A)
Bournemouth (H)
Watford (H)

Edited March 17, 2021 by Feedthewolf

[Wardogz 72]

Realistically, 3 more wins should seal promotion?

[Ken Hairy 3,772]

Up by Easter 😎

[chicken 2,625]

9 minutes ago, Wardogz said:

Realistically, 3 more wins should seal promotion?

13 ahead of Swansea in 3rd and 15 ahead of Brentford in 4th. Both have 10 games left, we have 9.

Just to overhaul our total now they need to win 5 games. Actually Brentford need at least a point more. So realistically 6 wins.

Three wins would make either of those teams incredibly unlikely to overhaul us. Drop any more points and any last hopes for top are gone. I think that's it for Brentford at least. Even if they win their game in hand that's 12pts behind with 9 games. They have to win 5.