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7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Parris I think nails it again, as he did with Johnson. Worth the read as a glimpse into what is going to happen. That last paragraph too😅 very funny if not so serious - "a huge effort to contain an unstable PM".

 

 

 

I have a small admission to make - one of my friends/acquaintances has stood as Tory MP candidate a few times (yes I've seen the nasty social media crap all candidates get - disgusting). I seem recall us having a good-hearted chat about Johnson and my severe doubts about his character at the time. In simple terms I was assured he wasn't going to be anywhere near power and not to worry!

Yes believe the impossible can happen - Johnson, Truss and you won't be disappointed. What's the phrase - promoted to the position of maximum incompetence.

Only two years to go.....

 

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9 hours ago, MooreMarriot said:

He could certainly work harder:

18031720-7424475-image-a-17_1567544245420.jpg

 

 

He has such a punchable face, don't you think?

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20 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Yup, don't agree on many many points, especially that the UK is 'internationally derided, which it simply isn't outside of EU circles (some are reasonable), but really not worth wasting time on. He has gone anyway, so really doesn't matter. As you say, for the moment, all there is is vacuum. 

A little bit of international derision for you to enjoy.

 

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32 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

A little bit of international derision for you to enjoy.

 

It's a bunch of Australian satirists; hardly representatives of Australian policy-makers really. 

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1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's a bunch of Australian satirists; hardly representatives of Australian policy-makers really. 

It's only Brexiteers in the UK that think our influence and respect hasn't decreased in the world. It simply has.

Everybody else see's it as what it is - a self-indulgent backward step of a country that was famous once like an old actress trying to play a young bride but well past her sell by date.

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2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

It's only Brexiteers in the UK that think our influence and respect hasn't decreased in the world. It simply has.

Everybody else see's it as what it is - a self-indulgent backward step of a country that was famous once like an old actress trying to play a young bride but well past her sell by date.

It's just rubbish. The real irony is that it's all the people who believed that the UK was too insignificant to survive outside of the EU for more than 10 seconds who now believe that the whole world outside the EU is totally obsessed with our relationship with the EU. They're not. Nobody outside the EU cares because our relationship with the EU is not their problem. 

Here's some German satire making fun of Macron. Obviously proof that France is an international laughing stock...

 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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The Aussies and Kiwis took the **** out of us with those ludicrous trade deals, if that's any help.

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9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's just rubbish. The real irony is that it's all the people who believed that the UK was too insignificant to survive outside of the EU for more than 10 seconds who now believe that the whole world outside the EU is totally obsessed with our relationship with the EU. They're not. Nobody outside the EU cares because our relationship with the EU is not their problem. 

Here's some German satire making fun of Macron. Obviously proof that France is an international laughing stock...

 

 

Previously we were a leader, both diplomatically and politically of the EU.

We were the 'Atlantic' bridge to Europe as the Yanks saw us - a way to speak to the EU. That's now France and Germany roles direct.

In the same manner we also were a leader if other countries wanted to negotiate with the EU on trade deals or treaties or whatever - a market of 400M people plus. Now we represent only some 60M.

Nobody outside the Brexiteers seriously doubts our global influence has declined. We're second tier now to the big economic blocks.

It's a bit like being in the EPL - having a seat at their board meetings and now being the Championship - yes a bigger fish but in a smaller pond - feeding on what the EPL leaves behind.

 

Edited by Yellow Fever
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42 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Previously we were a leader, both diplomatically and politically of the EU.

We were the 'Atlantic' bridge to Europe as the Yanks saw us - a way to speak to the EU. That's now France and Germany roles direct.

In the same manner we also were a leader if other countries wanted to negotiate with the EU on trade deals or treaties or whatever - a market of 400M people plus. Now we represent only some 60M.

Nobody outside the Brexiteers seriously doubts our global influence has declined. We're second tier now to the big economic blocks.

Respectully, we were never really a big player either in terms of EU diplomatic policy or politically in the EU, at least relative to our financial input. This talk by Sir Stephen Wall, who was the UK's top diplomat to the EU under Major and Blair, recounts how France and Germany would both work out their line on major issues at meetings before the UK team had even arrived. Can't remember exactly where, but the whole thing's an interesting listen anyway. 

 

With regard to EU external trade, to highlight a striking example, the UK had advocated for an agreement with Australia for decades with no uptake from the EU until after the UK had the referendum, which really was a good illustration of how a UK interest got sideined during our membership, and only became of interest to the EU as a tool to try and influence Australia against the UK (the EU knocked it on the head as soon as it was clear Australia was still working closely with the UK).

The Atlantic bridge argument is a fair point, but the US has a close ally in Ireland still in the EU, and it's very clear that the US is supportive of the UK's tilt to Asia Pacific given the US political difficulties regarding reengaging with TPP post-Trump

Incidentally, polling on the subject carried out post-referendum supports the idea that,while EU perceptions of the UK have declined, there has been positive movement outside the EU. https://www.britishcouncil.org/research-policy-insight/insight-articles/from-outside-in-article

Also, there's been some anecdotal evidence that engagement with the Conservatives from young Brtish Asians with the Conservative party has increased, presumably with an eye towards the evolution of UK policy regarding cooperation in Asia.

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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14 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Respectully, we were never really a big player either in terms of EU diplomatic policy or politically in the EU, at least relative to our financial input. This talk by Sir Stephen Wall, who was the UK's top diplomat to the EU under Major and Blair, recounts how France and Germany would both work out their line on major issues at meetings before the UK team had even arrived. Can't remember exactly where, but the whole thing's an interesting listen anyway. 

 

With regard to EU external trade, to highlight a striking example, the UK had advocated for an agreement with Australia for decades with no uptake from the EU until after the UK had the referendum, which really was a good illustration of how a UK interest got sideined during our membership, and only became of interest to the EU as a tool to try and influence Australia against the UK (the EU knocked it on the head as soon as it was clear Australia was still working closely with the UK).

The Atlantic bridge argument is a fair point, but the US has a close ally in Ireland still in the EU, and it's very clear that the US is supportive of the UK's tilt to Asia Pacific given the US political difficulties regarding reengaging with TPP post-Trump

Incidentally, polling on the subject carried out post-referendum supports the idea that,while EU perceptions of the UK have declined, there has been positive movement outside the EU. https://www.britishcouncil.org/research-policy-insight/insight-articles/from-outside-in-article

Also, there's been some anecdotal evidence that engagement with the Conservatives from young Brtish Asians with the Conservative party has increased, presumably with an eye towards the evolution of UK policy regarding cooperation in Asia.

He makes exactly my point at about 9 mins in! Why we joined no less - global influence.

He also clearly outlines our leadership - SM, expansion and so on. 

Don't confuse Franco-German alliances or come to that our stronger links to Eastern Europe with the overall role.   

Frankly he explains quite clearly our role. However his best point in the referendum it was how 'impervious people were to factual & logical argument'! The same is still true today.

The post Brexit 'benefits' is really a case of making the best of a bad call and then selling it to the public as good deal (Australia, NZ, Japan etc).. 

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I can categorically say that the UK's position was very influential within the EU. We were an extremely important partner. The UK could always seen as being a little spiky at times but almost it was a case that being so, our influence was somehow more important.

That is how it seemed to me in my involvement (over 3 years). I know this, not because I was some 'big player' (I was just a participant like many) but I did get to speak with those who were senior EU public policy and international relations specialists. I was always interested in how decisions were made, how to attract funding especially. I also read widely and was invited to a couple of events.

You just got to learn about how that great big 'edifice' of the EU worked. Very concerned with details indeed, very interested on 'how' things worked, very interested in the mechanisms of understanding, of process. I'd never come across anything like it in my working life. Yet I learnt tons of things and met some of the most creative minds I'd ever met. It was humbling and I realised just that I was a National League player (in football speak) in my thinking - and I thought I knew a thing or two before! My experience therefore was like encountering a whole load of Guardiolas!

That's the thing. Brexit has removed us from working with the best minds. Just look at the Horizon programme. Our UK scientists were involved in amazing projects. Projects that were helping change the world. The EU wanted UK scientists. It had a deep admiration for British innovation.

It is so obvious that not belonging to the EU deeply diminishes us. It doesn't need to be even debated here. Brexit has diminished this country. People who voted for leaving must have known that too, even if they didn't have a first hand experience.

Johnson's behaviour in office and the appalling way he handled himself has definitely affected EU trust. We know too in reading press stories. Hell, you can see it in those optics at conferences. You don't need to be a body language expert either. It's why I stated that our reputation has taken a battering. And I was proud of the UK and Britishness (whatever that really means) but far less so now. I feel more embarrassed and less patriotic. Being in Europe and being British was the best of both worlds for me. Being out of it means we are just not at the table. Sadly, we face being on the menu though.

Edited by sonyc
Paragraphs! Typing on a phone
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58 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

He makes exactly my point at about 9 mins in! Why we joined no less - global influence.

He also clearly outlines our leadership - SM, expansion and so on. 

Don't confuse Franco-German alliances or come to that our stronger links to Eastern Europe with the overall role.   

Frankly he explains quite clearly our role. However his best point in the referendum it was how 'impervious people were to factual & logical argument'! The same is still true today.

The post Brexit 'benefits' is really a case of making the best of a bad call and then selling it to the public as good deal (Australia, NZ, Japan etc).. 

He makes lots of points. It's a very nuanced and interesting talk where he makes exactly the point I pointed out. 

You're digressing from your original point that perception of the UK globally has diminished, which is just wrong. 

Johnson blah blah blah. He has resigned and perceptions of the whole country don't hinge on the personality of who leads the country at the time anyway. 

He said exactly what I pointed out in there, that the UK was often presented with a line from Germany and France that had already been agreed before the UK team was involved. It really is incredibly irritating the way you are so childishly determined to refuse to acknowledge even the tiniest nuanced point that doesn't agree with your boring diatribes .

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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17 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I can categorically say that the UK's position was very influential within the EU. We were an extremely important partner. The UK could always seen as being a little spiky at times but almost it was a case that being so, our influence was somehow more important.

That is how it seemed to me in my involvement (over 3 years). I know this, not because I was some 'big player' (I was just a participant like many) but I did get to speak with those who were senior EU public policy and international relations specialists. I was always interested in how decisions were made, how to attract funding especially. I also read widely and was invited to a couple of events.

You just got to learn about how that great big 'edifice' of the EU worked. Very concerned with details indeed, very interested on 'how' things worked, very interested in the mechanisms of understanding, of process. I'd never come across anything like it in my working life. Yet I learnt tons of things and met some of the most creative minds I'd ever met. It was humbling and I realised just that I was a National League player (in football speak) in my thinking - and I thought I knew a thing or two before! My experience therefore was like encountering a whole load of Guardiolas!

That's the thing. Brexit has removed us from working with the best minds. Just look at the Horizon programme. Our UK scientists were involved in amazing projects. Projects that were helping change the world. The EU wanted UK scientists. It had a deep admiration for British innovation.

It is so obvious that not belonging to the EU deeply diminishes us. It doesn't need to be even debated here. Brexit has diminished this country. People who voted for leaving must have known that too, even if they didn't have a first hand experience.

Johnson's behaviour in office and the appalling way he handled himself has definitely affected EU trust. We know too in reading press stories. Hell, you can see it in those optics at conferences. You don't need to be a body language expert either. It's why I stated that our reputation has taken a battering. And I was proud of the UK and Britishness (whatever that really means) but far less so now. I feel more embarrassed and less patriotic. Being in Europe and being British was the best of both worlds for me. Being out of it means we are just not at the table. Sadly, we face being on the menu though.

We were not as influential as either France or Germany, in spite of paying in more than France. 

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4 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

We were not as influential as either France or Germany, in spite of paying in more than France. 

Maybe not. But who cares? Or so what? We are in a kinds of relationships, we are in marriages, we are in businesses. That's life! Relationships aren't perfect. Relationships aren't equal. You work at them. Or you are just alone. And why wouldn't we be in relationship with our nearest neighbours? Divorce has consequences. Ours will take maybe 10 years to get over. A lot of damage and lives changed though. 

This thread was about the Tory leadership and I'm conscious it's moving over to the Brexit one. I believe I've said all I can or needed to now on that issue. My views are completely irrelevant too.

I'm hopeful of the new leader and any new UK leaders starting to be more adult again, to build bridges rather than constantly smashing them down. Not good for politics in 2022 or the future.

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26 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

He makes lots of points. It's a very nuanced and interesting talk where he makes exactly the point I pointed out. 

You're digressing from your original point that perception of the UK globally has diminished, which is just wrong. 

Johnson blah blah blah. He has resigned and perceptions of the whole country don't hinge on the personality of who leads the country at the time anyway. 

He said exactly what I pointed out in there, that the UK was often presented with a line from Germany and France that had already been agreed before the UK team was involved. It really is incredibly irritating the way you are so childishly determined to refuse to acknowledge even the tiniest nuanced point that doesn't agree with your boring diatribes .

Sorry but it's you that seem to go off at a tangent and grab at small points. I don't disagree with anything it seems Wall said - good and bad. However, much as per SonyC from my travels to many of the parts of the world you 'champion'  - I've never heard or seen anybody who thinks the UK is stronger or more influential post Brexit. More the question is 'Why the hell did you do that?' asked in bewilderment. 

As Wall states the answer is really in the euphemism of small minded 'identity politics'. 

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sorry but it's you that seem to go off at a tangent and grab at small points. I don't disagree with anything it seems Wall said - good and bad. However, much as per SonyC from my travels to many of the parts of the world you 'champion'  - I've never heard or seen anybody who thinks the UK is stronger or more influential post Brexit. More the question is 'Why the hell did you do that?' asked in bewilderment. 

As Wall states the answer is really in the euphemism of small minded 'identity politics'. 

They're small, irrelevant, unsubstantiated, highly biased opinions presented as fact where apparently there are enough people in agreement on here to get lots of support; they're still wrong though and it's healthy to point that out. 

Beyond that I agree, much as was the case with Stephen Wall, the whole thing should never have been embarked on in the first place, but we have done, it's irreversible, and the country is still a serious international player regardless of the damage, and pretending otherwise is pointless and counter-productive. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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35 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

We were not as influential as either France or Germany, in spite of paying in more than France. 

Simply untrue - Germany is, and has been historically, the most influential country in the EU for many reasons including the very obvious facts that they have the biggest population and the strongest economy by some distance.

But one of the reasons that the French, at least in one sense, are pleased to see the back of us is that the UK had largely displaced the France into third place in terms of influence, as it was frequently the case that Germany & UK government were more aligned in their views than with the French - arguably that might potentially have changed a bit with Merkel's departure but we'll never know as we'd already burnt our bridges with the EU by then.

 

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23 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

They're small, irrelevant, unsubstantiated, highly biased opinions presented as fact where apparently there are enough people in agreement on here to get lots of support; they're still wrong though and it's healthy to point that out. 

I'm only agreeing with what Wall said in the link you yourself posted. Are you Swindon Canary by any chance?

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43 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Simply untrue - Germany is, and has been historically, the most influential country in the EU for many reasons including the very obvious facts that they have the biggest population and the strongest economy by some distance.

But one of the reasons that the French, at least in one sense, are pleased to see the back of us is that the UK had largely displaced the France into third place in terms of influence, as it was frequently the case that Germany & UK government were more aligned in their views than with the French - arguably that might potentially have changed a bit with Merkel's departure but we'll never know as we'd already burnt our bridges with the EU by then.

 

To quote Stephen Wall from this talk...

Quote

 

RM: ... one of the themes, it seems, in your book, when it really comes to it, at all of the very big moments, ultimately the French and Germans stick together and it's usually Britain on the outside. Is that fair?

SW: Yeah, I mean, obviously by the time we joined they had formed the habit of cooperation, I mean the Franco German reconciliation treaty between de Gaulle and Adenauer was signed at just about the same time as de Gaulle's veto, probably not by accident. The French and Germans set up a whole mechanism of cooperation and regular meetings between ministers and officials etc. and made real sacrifices to each other to make it work; we always found that very difficult. I mean there was a brief attempt after the Iraq war to create a trilateral relationship, but it didn't work, partly because I and my colleague from No. 10 would go off to the Elysée palace that the French and Germans had been concocting their joint line before we arrived, but partly because British ministers wouldn't make the compromises necessary to make it work and by that stage, post-Iraq, Tony Blair didn't really have the authority to kind of force those compromises through cabinet.

 

So we really weren't as influential as we should have been, partly because of the existing French and German relationship and partly because of us.

Edit: @Yellow fever if you were agreeing with all of Stephen Wall said then I'm at a loss why you're not just accepting my observation contradicting your assertion that we were a leader, as valid. But anyway, you and @Creative Midfielder seem to be getting off on one of your mutual tag team love-ins against anything I say now, so I'll just leave it there.

 

 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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5 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

To quote Stephen Wall from this talk...

So we really weren't as influential as we should have been, partly because of the existing French and German relationship and partly because of us.

Yes sure, I perhaps should have been more precise chronologically in what I said.

When we first joined nearly fifty years ago what Wall says about the existing French and German relationships and their influence is absolutely true but that changed over time with the UK gaining influence, primarily at France's expense.

It is also probably over-simplistic to suggest there was a strict 1-2-3 ranking across all issues, in practice there were some policy areas where UK wielded more influence than the France and vice-versa, but overall there can be no denying that in the 15 years prior to Cameron's stupidity in calling a referendum that the UK and German governments were more closely with aligned each other than with the French, and that as a result the French influence was much diminished.

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1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It really is incredibly irritating the way you are so childishly determined to refuse to acknowledge even the tiniest nuanced point that doesn't agree with your boring diatribes .

BANG!!!!

Forgive me, I need to go and fix my irony-meter.

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49 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Yes sure, I perhaps should have been more precise chronologically in what I said.

When we first joined nearly fifty years ago what Wall says about the existing French and German relationships and their influence is absolutely true but that changed over time with the UK gaining influence, primarily at France's expense.

It is also probably over-simplistic to suggest there was a strict 1-2-3 ranking across all issues, in practice there were some policy areas where UK wielded more influence than the France and vice-versa, but overall there can be no denying that in the 15 years prior to Cameron's stupidity in calling a referendum that the UK and German governments were more closely with aligned each other than with the French, and that as a result the French influence was much diminished.

Wall was also talking about his experiences in the late 90s regarding turning up to the Elysee palace to be greeted by agreed French German lines. I don't think we ever had better relations than then.

There were of occasions where the French and Germans would be in disagreement and we'd be brokers there, but that was the exception rather than the rule. Characterising us as ever being 'leaders' in Europe for the sake of a handful of key moments just isn't the way it was.

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1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Edit: @Yellow fever if you were agreeing with all of Stephen Wall said then I'm at a loss why you're not just accepting my observation contradicting your assertion that we were a leader, as valid. But anyway, you and @Creative Midfielder seem to be getting off on one of your mutual tag team love-ins against anything I say now, so I'll just leave it there.

Of course we were a leader - football teams or the EU can have more than one leader at once. We led on many things - market deregulation, expansion, CAP reform, budgets and on and on  - indeed the Germans and French welcomed us for it with as SonyC said our 'spikey' attitude - or elsewhere known as British pragmatism. Equally CM is right when he gave an historical perspective of the roles Germany, France and the UK played - indeed Germany wanted France to step up when we left so as the EU wasn't so German dominated.

It is you that seems to be unable to grasp the bigger picture or truth but get hung up on every minor point that most of us can accept without rancour. Of course all the EU counties have differing perspectives and disagree at times as with all siblings - but if you want to grasp the ultimate truth ask yourself why Putin was so pleased with and promoted Brexit. Simply because he knew it would weaken both the EU and particularly the UK's influence in the world. Divided we fall.

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6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Of course we were a leader - football teams or the EU can have more than one leader at once. We led on many things - market deregulation, expansion, CAP reform, budgets and on and on  - indeed the Germans and French welcomed us for it with as SonyC said our 'spikey' attitude - or elsewhere known as British pragmatism. Equally CM is right when he gave an historical perspective of the roles Germany, France and the UK played - indeed Germany wanted France to step up when we left so as the EU wasn't so German dominated.

It is you that seems to be unable to grasp the bigger picture or truth but get hung up on every minor point that most of us can accept without rancour. Of course all the EU counties have differing perspectives and disagree at times as with all siblings - but if you want to grasp the ultimate truth ask yourself why Putin was so pleased with and promoted Brexit. Simply because he knew it would weaken both the EU and particularly the UK's influence in the world. Divided we fall.

I'm not underplaying our influence; you're massively overegging it by describing us as 'leaders' on anything other than some areas of market reform; as far as the political project was concerned, that was all France and Germany, and it was the political project that caused the most friction from a UK perspective. Note that Gordon Brown also played with Euroscepticism to his own political ends according to Sir Stephen by the way. 

The foundation of the Euro and Schengen with France and Germany as insiders and us as outsiders cemented us as peripheral players. That was a consequence of our decision, but nevertheless we were consigned to the periphery irrevocably from that point on, not that I think either was ever a good idea anyway. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Look it up. 

I think you need to old buh. I'm worried, given you direct it at me, you think it means Forum Oracle Majestically Opines. That's not what it means chap.

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1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I'm not underplaying our influence; you're massively overegging it by describing us as 'leaders' on anything other than some areas of market reform; as far as the political project was concerned, that was all France and Germany

I'm just back from being out and surprised this point is still being discussed. I think there's a balance in there. And I believe there is common ground between posters.

There is no question that the UK had influence and oddly, that influence had been increasing, not reducing, up to the time of exit.  I'm also sure that Barnier meant what he said (and has since stated) that our withdrawal was not good for either us or the EU. Yet, he was the proper adult in most of the negotiations, which if you recall stalled time and again with new faces being drafted in. It was a time of 'unicorn' politics with ludicrous claims being made by Davis to start with.

I think we can all agree too that the UK was not THE leader in any relationship. Yet, we had clout and we've always been important. After all, we've had two wars in recent history and French-British relations have always been prickly but ultimately, often productive, cooperative. That's why the French are warm to the English. English culture is palpable in modern French daily life.

Brexit has undoubtedly reduced any influence we enjoyed. It was worsened by Johnson (in my honest view).

Now... We all tend to try and defend our political leanings and this can exaggerate our take on certain matters. My view is that had we really wanted to take a bigger place within the EU hierarchy, it was there for us. To do that though we needed a PM to be far more open than the ones we have had in recent times.

Blair was one perhaps (hoping you don't resurrect the Iran war argument 😅... in me mentioning him in a post - like a red rag to a bull🐂). I say this, having listened to the Rory Stewart / Alistair Campbell podcasts recently. Campbell formed very strong relationships with Holland certainly to give an example. But then he speaks French and partly lives there.

I also agree with Rory Stewart and yesterday John Major about the Tory leadership (Johnson). These are people I'm getting a new respect for and finding a new appreciation. 

Truss? I'm really worried. Wish it was Wallace, for example. But he must have realised the next tenure as PM would be a tough one. I'm almost expecting Truss to self-combust. 

Edited by sonyc
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32 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

I think you need to old buh. I'm worried, given you direct it at me, you think it means Forum Oracle Majestically Opines. That's not what it means chap.

Fear of Missing Out. I was alluding to the fact that I only ever seem to be addressed by you with tedious smart-arsed remarks of an ad-hominem nature once other people are clearly teaming up against me. 

You put me in mind of the rather ineffectual hangers-on that used to join in with the playground alpha kids when they were ganging up on someone. Sad little inadequate pr*ck. 

https://www.techtarget.com/whatis/definition/FOMO-fear-of-missing-out#:~:text=The fear of missing out,%2C dissatisfaction%2C depression and stress.

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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