Corona Virus main thread

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

There’s loads of variables Indy and often we focus on singular rather than multiple public health risks. The evidence atm suggest to me that the Government has probably called this right, we must bide our time as there are no definitives here but it seems to me that the decisions we have recently taken are right.

Yes particularly the decision to open up at the start of the school holidays/summer period rather than delay and end up trying to open when schools are back and autumn is starting. That’s looking like a good call right now.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Very true, but I do wonder how many of the over 70’s were pretty much on their last few weeks anyhow? It’s always with Covid! I’d like to see the deaths for June & July 2021 v the average pre Covid! That would make more sense as most who do die with Covid are generally in poor health!

Yes on the “excess deaths” measure we’ve been below the 5 year average for most of the time since March this year.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

11 hours ago, horsefly said:

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/republican-who-rejected-masks-and-sensational-pandemic-coverage-now-urges-people-to-take-covid-seriously/ar-AAMQoEu?ocid=msedgntp

I'd imagine there'll be plenty of these stories in US especially in the coming months

Edited August 3, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Tetteys Jig 830]

14 hours ago, ricardo said:

I think we need to remember that despite the vaccinations, the risk of death is still massively tilted towards the over 50's

sadly there are still some over 50s who don't get vaccinated... I'm surprised they dont concentrate the coercion efforts on them as they are still the ones that will be filling hospitals and dying. If you're over 50 or vulnerable then not taking the jab is completely irresponsible

[horsefly 4,300]

9 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I'd imagine there'll be plenty of these stories in US especially in the coming months

Yep! I think they are trying to prove Darwin was right.

[Barbe bleu 826]

Thankfully we have largely managed to prevent vaccines from becoming politicised and that is one of the reasons we are able to receive the dividend we are

Unfortunately on other issues, including the massively important environment issue, we are seeing our society revert to the new norm and draw battle lines and hurl insults.   Its divisive and entirely counter productive but some people think winning a social media war is more important than achieving the aim they purport to support.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

ZOE down another 5% from yesterday.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

ZOE down another 5% from yesterday.

Tim will be "refining" methodology again soon😀

[ricardo 7,395]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Tim will be "refining" methodology again soon😀

Almost in synch with the "suspect" official numbers now.

YF will be pleased😉

[ricardo 7,395]

National

21,691 - 138

rate of Decrease 20.5% (7 days) flattening out now

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     383.4  rising for third day after falling for six.

(14 patients in N&N  not updated since 27th)

Vax 1st Dose      26,114                88.7% done                 Norwich numbers   75.9% 2nd Dose     126,307              73% done                                               57.1%   In Hospital   ( up down down up at the moment, fluctuating around the peak) 02-08-2021                    6,099 01-08-2021 5,898 31-07-2021 5,883 30-07-2021 5,950 29-07-2021 5,926 28-07-2021 6,056 27-07-2021 6,048

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

29 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Almost in synch with the "suspect" official numbers now.

YF will be pleased😉

I'm happy with any bankable numbers (confidence limits applied) good, bad or ugly. Shall we see where ONS is this Friday and what demographics/regions are doing what?

 

[ricardo 7,395]

England only numbers

Covid Fact Check UK @fact_covid
England COVID admissions drop again. Sunday’s figure was 645 - 23% down on the previous week (836).

The seven-day average falls again to 717, down from 744 yesterday and 780 a week earlier (-8%).

5,116 beds occupied vs 5,309 yesterday.

[ricardo 7,395]

Actual admissions v models

[Essjayess 307]

Interesting to see the 7 day rolling  stats in a graph form for the 3 areas of new cases / deaths and admissions for the last month or two. New cases had a pretty sharp rise followed by a pretty sharp decline in last couple weeks, deaths started to rise much later than new cases and continue to rise but there has  been no sharp increase, just a slow rise. Admissions  started to rise later than new cases but earlier than deaths, the rise was moderate and as Ricardo said seems to be stalling at present, not really rising or falling much.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm happy with any bankable numbers (confidence limits applied) good, bad or ugly. Shall we see where ONS is this Friday and what demographics/regions are doing what?

 

Admissions are the best indicator atm imo, and they moving in the right direction atm.

[Well b back 3,207]

16 and 17 in U.K. I hear may well be vaccinated, catch back up the likes of Spain and Belgium. 

[Well b back 3,207]

6 hours ago, Well b back said:

16 and 17 in U.K. I hear may well be vaccinated, catch back up the likes of Spain and Belgium. 

There you go confirmed now.

[ricardo 7,395]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

There you go confirmed now.

Sensible decision, lets hope for a decent uptake.

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

15 hours ago, Van wink said:

Admissions are the best indicator atm imo, and they moving in the right direction atm.

I've always been of the opinion from the start that the daily confirmed PCR tests are not a good indicator (although they may or may not show trends) of the prevalence of Covid in the community.  They generally underestimate by a factor of 2 or 3 historically or indeed in the first wave much more (all those asymptotic cases, economic/social test 'reluctance' for fear of a positive, or plain lack of testing capability in the early days). Randomized sampling is the only valid basis on which to draw any conclusions and to make policy even if it is less immediate (to the public) than the daily headline PCR numbers. I see no reason to change that approach now. This randomized testing will actually identify and help explain the apparent recent drop/stall in confirmed figures.

However, the modest slow down in recent  hospitalizations are very welcome and do at at least confirm that the most serious of cases are currently on the right path. My guess is that the recent 'bubble' of cases were largely in the young - indeed 12-30 and least susceptible to requiring hospitalization and with the school holidays upon us the large apparent reservoir in the school children has been temporarily been disrupted / untested.

What however does amuse me slightly is the government policy being at sixes and sevens. In order to justify opening up only a few weeks ago with fast rising (as opposed to diminishing cases as originally planned) cases the argument given was to have a surge in cases now in the summer to basically avoid a large NHS problematic surge in cases later (a dash for quasi herd immunity). Although the current remission in cases is good it bodes poorly for the autumn when the kids return again (only 4 or 5 weeks) and yet the underlying prevalence remains relatively high and the ground well seeded. A lull before the storm I fear again.

I'm pretty certain that that thought is also one factor behind the welcome push to vaccinate 16+ which I've long advocated.

[Van wink 2,994]

26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I've always been of the opinion from the start that the daily confirmed PCR tests are not a good indicator (although they may or may not show trends) of the prevalence of Covid in the community.  They generally underestimate by a factor of 2 or 3 historically or indeed in the first wave much more (all those asymptotic cases, economic/social test 'reluctance' for fear of a positive, or plain lack of testing capability in the early days). Randomized sampling is the only valid basis on which to draw any conclusions and to make policy even if it is less immediate (to the public) than the daily headline PCR numbers. I see no reason to change that approach now. This randomized testing will actually identify and help explain the apparent recent drop/stall in confirmed figures.

However, the modest slow down in recent  hospitalizations are very welcome and do at at least confirm that the most serious of cases are currently on the right path. My guess is that the recent 'bubble' of cases were largely in the young - indeed 12-30 and least susceptible to requiring hospitalization and with the school holidays upon us the large apparent reservoir in the school children has been temporarily been disrupted / untested.

What however does amuse me slightly is the government policy being at sixes and sevens. In order to justify opening up only a few weeks ago with fast rising (as opposed to diminishing cases as originally planned) cases the argument given was to have a surge in cases now in the summer to basically avoid a large NHS problematic surge in cases later (a dash for quasi herd immunity). Although the current remission in cases is good it bodes poorly for the autumn when the kids return again (only 4 or 5 weeks) and yet the underlying prevalence remains relatively high and the ground well seeded. A lull before the storm I fear again.

I'm pretty certain that that thought is also one factor behind the welcome push to vaccinate 16+ which I've long advocated.

Its a very uncertain picture and outlook, the modelling didn't predict what appears to be happening atm, which is most welcome, there are many experts who are struggling to explain why the curve has dropped, one facet of this would appear to be behavioural in that many people are continuing to behave in a very risk averse way, but that I suspect is just a small part of a much more complex scenario.

I'm personally now feeling confident that we can breath easy ( with sensible personal precautions ), for a month or two at least, thats about as far ahead as most would be prepared to predict with any confidence I suggest.

There are all sorts of things that can still go wrong and undoubtedly will, seasonal variation may have a bigger impact than some believe, but for me for now its "and relax" 

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

5 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Its a very uncertain picture and outlook, the modelling didn't predict what appears to be happening atm, which is most welcome, there are many experts who are struggling to explain why the curve has dropped, one facet of this would appear to be behavioural in that many people are continuing to behave in a very risk averse way, but that I suspect is just a small part of a much more complex scenario.

I'm personally now feeling confident that we can breath easy ( with sensible personal precautions ), for a month or two at least, thats about as far ahead as most would be prepared to predict with any confidence I suggest.

There are all sorts of things that can still go wrong and undoubtedly will, seasonal variation may have a bigger impact than some believe, but for me for now its "and relax" 

Don't disagree and we all need to make the best of the situation (in the sun) as we are blown around by the virus - c.f. Carrow Rd last night and our diminishing fit squad.

[sonyc 5,519]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/04/ardern-labour-popularity-stumbles-on-new-zealand-slow-road-to-vaccination?

Interesting read on the politics of managing the pandemic. Hardly any cases and a very concentrated strategy (NZ) on keeping the virus out versus a more chaotic, quixotic, reactive approach with high numbers and deaths (here).

You cannot compare the two countries easily because of such different geographies but you can look at strategies.

Here, the vaccine progress is rightly admired but in NZ there are signs that people may be becoming more impatient. The government has waited to see how vaccines might have worked, their efficacy etc and maybe that could be seen as sensible or they haven't acted quickly enough and citizens want to see stronger action towards a more lasting solution. And that is still whilst their economy is going ok.

So, the vaccine strategy is what helpfully supports our current administration. As Daniel Kahneman's important work noted, it's the "peak-end rule" that matters. ....What has gone before is less remembered than how it finished - You can have the holiday of a lifetime but break your ankle on the last day. That's what you recall. Or have a painful tooth out that takes 10 minutes of the dentist struggling but all you recall later is the sheer happiness at the tooth being finally removed!

Edited August 4, 2021 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Don't disagree and we all need to make the best of the situation (in the sun) as we are blown around by the virus - c.f. Carrow Rd last night and our diminishing fit squad.

Another hugely significant stat

Antibody levels above 91% in every English region - ONS

 

[Van wink 2,994]

On 02/08/2021 at 16:24, ricardo said:

ZOE continues to drop like a stone.

20% down on the week

Down to 46K today, Tim has been fiddling with the vertical hold again😀😀

[ricardo 7,395]

29 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Down to 46K today, Tim has been fiddling with the vertical hold again😀😀

Now that its caught up we should expect the rate of decline to steady a bit.

I would guesstimate that the official numbers may show a slight rise in the next couple of days due to the usual mid week catching up process.

We should see further falls in hospitalisations this week and then deaths in the week following.

[ricardo 7,395]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 A lull before the storm I fear again.

 

Every silver lining has a cloud.😉

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

So I think we can conclude that very probably new case numbers in England are declining (and the peak was probably some time back), following Scotland where the trend is clearly established. As we now have no imposed restrictions, it seems to me this can only be due to herd immunity, mainly thanks to the vaccines, but partly also natural immunity from having had the disease.

 

Looking ahead there are still issues. People are still mixing less than normal at the moment- not (yet?) partying like it’s 2019. Also schools are on holiday. Lots of socialising is outdoors.  (Part of the reason why removing restrictions on July 19th is looking like a very good call).
 

All of these can (IMO but I’ve never seen this discussed by an expert) mean that when schools reopen and the weather gets worse in September/October, it will become easier for the virus to transmit and therefore we could see a further wave of infections - we’ll fall back below the herd immunity level. Hence the plan for a booster jab for higher risk/older people seems very sensible.

 

But the way it works is that (if that happens) the new cases will naturally increase the immunity in the “herd” and a peak again will be reached and the disease will again subside. Probably a repeat of the last month or two.

 

Also there is the worry about a vaccine- resistant strain emerging. Plenty of countries like the US have hit a relatively low level of vaccination and are struggling to get the rest done, so there are plenty of Covid cases coming up against the vaccine with potential for a mutation to emerge. But no news of this yet?.

In the UK at 90% it’s always going to be a struggle to get the remaining 10% to do anything  (especially as the younger ones can legitimately feel the risk for them is minimal).

So we’re not out of the woods yet but lots of grounds for optimism - hopefully we are over the worst.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

Sensible decision, lets hope for a decent uptake.

Wonder if they will need their parents permission?

[ricardo 7,395]

National

29,312 - 119  uptick as predicted yesterday

rate of Decrease 13.7% (7 days) flattening out now

 

Local

Norwich infection rate     400.5   rising for fourth day after falling for six.

(14 patients in N&N  not updated since 27th)

Vax 1st Dose      29,508                88.7% done                 Norwich numbers   76% 2nd Dose     143,002              73.2% done                                               57.4% In Hospital 03-08-2021                 5,896 02-08-2021 6,123 01-08-2021 5,901 31-07-2021 5,887 30-07-2021 5,953 29-07-2021 5,928 28-07-2021 6,057

[ricardo 7,395]