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36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Indeed and you would expect the first states to be infected would also be the first states to decline.  Those infected later now appear to be in decline also. 

 Thankfully Sherman isnt still  marching through Georgia😉

Ha 😉

Many of the States infected later though are not in decline - or if they appear to be so it's because tests are declining in lock step with the reported number of cases. To follow up on what I was saying earlier here is NY  v FL first over 6 month and then over 3 month windows. Measured in per million. Dotted line US is average.

Why are Florida's administered tests falling? The positivity rate is at least 10% so it's not like you can assume the virus is dying out. Why is the death rate trending back up again even though hospitalizations are falling?  Could it be if you don't test, you don't get a positive result and so you don't hospitalize people? I'm not making any claims, one way or the other, but the bottom line is the death rate in Florida is increasing not decreasing. 

NY v FL Full Range.jpg

NY v FL 90 Daya.jpg

Edited by Surfer
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We'll agree to disagree for now Ricardo. And see what happens over the next few weeks. 

The current seven day average is 0.5 deaths / million for NY, and 5 deaths / million for FL.

We are about to throw college football into the different behaviors mix too. Stadiums with a capacity that dwarfs UK football grounds - 75,000 is not uncommon with the biggest at over 100,000 - so 25% capacity restriction still means a lot of people, plus you have the culture of tailgate parties before the game. North East and West coast leagues are shut down until Spring, but Southern and Mid West will play. I hope it works out for everyone...

Florida State: Attendance limited to 20-25% of stadium (19,890 maximum). Initially planned to allow tailgating before reversing course on Sept. 4.

Texas: Attendance limited to 25% of stadium (24,000). Tailgating allowed.

Tennessee: Attendance limited to 25% of stadium (25,614). Tailgating allowed

LSU: Attendance limited to 25% of stadium (25,580). 

 

Back to UK, your data is a lot closer to NY than anywhere else, so job well done so far despite the snafus over PPE, and testing. I hope you can reopen the economy soon. 

Edited by Surfer
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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rct-lockdown-coronavirus-local-rhondda-18909356
 

Yep and a few other things as well by the looks of it, but sadly sonyc things are looking pretty grim Covid wise for Wales atm. I would suspect we also see large numbers of vulnerable individuals in the socially deprived areas, of which we both know there are many.

Yes, higher density communities too suffering the worst.

It was this summer I was due for a visit to the Rhondda sadly but instead I've had to carry on with my online ancestry research instead. And even here, I've gone into a cul-de-sac with one leg of my family (the largest Welsh segment).  It's a shame as I would have liked to visit lots of places. I realise I could have gone anyway but it never felt like the responsible thing to do ☹️

Edited by sonyc

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, higher density communities too suffering the worst.

It was this summer I was due for a visit to the Rhondda sadly but instead I've had to carry on with my online ancestry research instead. And even here, I've gone into a cul-de-sac with one leg of my family (the largest Welsh segment).  It's a shame as I would have liked to visit lots of places. I realise I could have gone anyway but it never felt like the responsible thing to do ☹️

I've  done quite a bit of family research for people and always found the Welsh connections most difficult to sort out. A much smaller range of surnames unfortunately.

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24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I've  done quite a bit of family research for people and always found the Welsh connections most difficult to sort out. A much smaller range of surnames unfortunately.

Yes indeed. Morris is my stumbling block!

On my Norfolk / Suffolk side I've got back (incredibly) to 1400 for a 15th generation 'relative' ....but then that line is an important one and hence probably why I found it!

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4 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Perhaps if you hadn't voted for a right wing government Jools, you might not be facing totalitarian measures. Its your stupid blonde friend who can't make a decision.

I find your type as always the ones to moan first.

What RW government? Surely you don't mean the current small 'c' conservatives? 

We on the Right and former Labour voters up North wanted to vote for the Brexit Party, but of course that would've split the vote and we'd have been left with the frightening prospect of a Labour/SNP/Lib-Dum coalition and no Brexit 😲

I don't want to even try and imagine how Steptoe, Swansong and fatty Blackford would've dealt with the China flu 😱

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Large parts of the North East are set to be subjected to tighter lockdown restrictions that will be announced tomorrow, Sky News understands.

The restrictions are expected to come into force on Friday.

An MP present at the meeting told Sky News that the areas affected are likely to be Newcastle, Northumberland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Gateshead, County Durham and Sunderland.

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27 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes indeed. Morris is my stumbling block!

On my Norfolk / Suffolk side I've got back (incredibly) to 1400 for a 15th generation 'relative' ....but then that line is an important one and hence probably why I found it!

Could be worse, could be Jones

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22 minutes ago, Jools said:

 

We on the Right and former Labour voters up North wanted to vote for the Brexit Party, but of course that would've split the vote and we'd have been left with the frightening prospect of a Labour/SNP/Lib-Dum coalition and no Brexit 😲

 

FĂşcked up political system when you don't feel able to cast your vote how you want

😯

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6 hours ago, ricardo said:

 positives  up a bit

Latest UK Numbers  3991 - 20

Inpatients  901 that is down 71 from yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1229 - 9

France 7852 - 49

Spain   9437 -156

Germany  1623 - 9

Spain appears to include numbers from Sat and Sun which have only just been released

I think a bit is a slight economy of description Ricardo. Nearly 25% up.

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11 hours ago, ricardo said:

I've  done quite a bit of family research for people and always found the Welsh connections most difficult to sort out. A much smaller range of surnames unfortunately.

Good Norfolk records plus an odd surname has made my family tree relatively easy to sort. Hits a brick wall in the 16th century but it's assumed because of migration from Europe. 

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https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-wants-two-week-22696770?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Whitty's voice has been absent these last few weeks so interesting to read he is pressuring government ....as well as eye opening figures suggested by this report. Yet in the absence of proper testing (with the Zoe app representative of  just over 4m reporting over 5k infections, perhaps 38k isn't so far fetched at all scaling it up).

 

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53 minutes ago, Herman said:

Good Norfolk records plus an odd surname has made my family tree relatively easy to sort. Hits a brick wall in the 16th century but it's assumed because of migration from Europe. 

No wonder you're so anti-Brexit 🤣🙂😉

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37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-wants-two-week-22696770?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Whitty's voice has been absent these last few weeks so interesting to read he is pressuring government ....as well as eye opening figures suggested by this report. Yet in the absence of proper testing (with the Zoe app representative of  just over 4m reporting over 5k infections, perhaps 38k isn't so far fetched at all scaling it up).

 

It’s a really difficult balance right now.

 

But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out.

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16 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

It’s a really difficult balance right now.

 

But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out.

I would tend to  agree with Whitty. Been caught out once so won't be again. Fool me once, fool me twice etc...

Agree with the Zoe figures and yes may well be an underestimate  - its the 'wishful thinking' again that I see that worries me in that hospital admissions and indeed deaths are a severe 'lag' figure but like all supertankers once they are obviously on the up it's 4 to 6 weeks too late to turn and avoid the iceberg!

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/chris-whitty-wants-two-week-22696770?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Whitty's voice has been absent these last few weeks so interesting to read he is pressuring government ....as well as eye opening figures suggested by this report. Yet in the absence of proper testing (with the Zoe app representative of  just over 4m reporting over 5k infections, perhaps 38k isn't so far fetched at all scaling it up).

 

doesn't the Zoe app extrapolate? 38k infections a day would be mental! Be a third of the way back to March estimated levels. I thought it was sat at like 5k a day with 50k total

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Yeah I just looked and it's an estimate on the zoe app for total cases, we are at 6k a day with 60k total. Not good but not 38k a day

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19 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

It’s a really difficult balance right now.

 

But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out.

Well it is a very odd figure to be quoted and Costello appears a respected figure. I agree its a big jump over the Zoe app (you're correct about the scale up).

It feels as if we are at the cusp of something going on. A rising tide almost? Which set of reports do we respect? The testing problems only make it harder to fathom.

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26 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

It’s a really difficult balance right now.

 

But on the Zoe Covid app, the 5,400 number is a projection across the U.K. based on the people reporting so it’s already scaled up. But as I read it, it’s only people with symptomatic Covid so will be an under estimate to that extent eg if 50% are symptomatic you’re looking at about 10,000 new cases daily. 38,000 would be a major leap if true but the app has been a good basis so far and I doubt it’s that far out.

And another question ICF....do we actually know the split of asymptomatic v symptomatic? It might well be 50% but I've not read the actual proportions at any time. PS. I realise your figures were an educated guess.

Edited by sonyc

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24 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I would tend to  agree with Whitty. Been caught out once so won't be again. Fool me once, fool me twice etc...

Agree with the Zoe figures and yes may well be an underestimate  - its the 'wishful thinking' again that I see that worries me in that hospital admissions and indeed deaths are a severe 'lag' figure but like all supertankers once they are obviously on the up it's 4 to 6 weeks too late to turn and avoid the iceberg!

Couldnt agree more, its tempting to believe history wont repeat itself but I'm afraid it will. 

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20 minutes ago, sonyc said:

And another question ICF....do we actually know the split of asymptomatic v symptomatic? It might well be 50% but I've not read the actual proportions at any time. PS. I realise your figures were an educated guess.

Yep,  the tricky bit about asymptomatic carriers is the only way to know is if you test a whole population at some point, which obviously doesn't happen that often.  I've seen varying numbers from different studies at different times.  My guess is that it will vary depending on the makeup of the group involved and probably younger carriers are more likely to be asymptomatic. 

 

I think we can say there are definitely a high percentage of asymptomatic carriers, probably if you took the range 25% to 75% it would be somewhere inside that range, so I just took 50% as being as sensible an assumption as you can use for a back of a fag packet guess !  I'm old enough to have actually done a calculation on the bag of a fag packet !

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10 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think a bit is a slight economy of description Ricardo. Nearly 25% up.

From 1.3 percent to 1.8 percent 😀

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Fake news then? 🤔

in fairness he tweeted about whitty advocating national lockdown last night. They guy clearly doesn't know then. I suspect the government don't know what the plan is anyway!

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44 minutes ago, sonyc said:

And another question ICF....do we actually know the split of asymptomatic v symptomatic? It might well be 50% but I've not read the actual proportions at any time. PS. I realise your figures were an educated guess.

Can't recall where I saw it but numbers where more 3 or 4 to 1 to 1 (66% + few or asymptomatic). It's one of the arguements of the 'herd immunity' tribe that we've all already had it. I suspect not. Remember that most kids don't show it so it's also quite age dependent behind the head line figures.

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