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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Yes there is little doubt that some of the far eastern countries have handled things far better than most. Experience and close proximity to recent viral outbreaks has also been a factor I suggest.

I just look for the most likely explanations for differences between countries - and then play devils advocate with any 'hypothesis' such as 'current'  herd immunity. It fails.

The most likely explanations are public and societal attitudes plus demographics.

I'm sure there are questions about viral 'dose', cross immunity but i suspect most are second order compared to the above.  

Also juts heard (R4) as I write our 'test numbers' are also a week out of date  - much as I had guessed /argued in an earlier post. It's worse than we think.

As to hospitalization and morbidity - just a ticking time bomb even with out better and earlier treatments.

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3 hours ago, ricardo said:

 positives  1.3%

Latest UK Numbers  3105 - 27

Inpatients  972  up by 88 since Saturday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1008 - 14

France 6158 - 34

Spain   3023 - 33

Germany  1923 - 8

Have a look back over the last two weeks numbers from page 380 this thread. Numbers have bounced about for all countries but still no exponential lift off in mortality. Should we not have seen Italy and Spain in the hundreds by now?

Well over 5000 cases per day on the Zoe app

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

So when do you expect deaths to move into the multi hundreds?

That's a tricky one as it depends on how effective our current (or yet to be imposed) restrictions are - and also how long it takes to  jump into the the more elderly population from the house party/barbeque group in the good weather.

I would give it a month for everybody to start realizing it's back and deaths ticking up significantly at the latest-  and then if we don't take more decisive action towards Christmas for a true calamity - probably  not quite so intense but more drawn out than the first (better treatments and understanding  etc). What I would hope is that we take effective preventative action early (T, T & ISOLATE) early to avoid the big hit again.

As an aside was in Gaol Hill Tesco yesterday lunchtime. Two customers without mask - a smart young woman and what looked like a workman. They both should of been shown the door. Therein lies the problem. Apathy and ignorance.  It's not if you think masks are effective or otherwise but all doing the 'right' things aka Japan. They will surely hang separately! 

Let's not hope we have flu pandemic this year as well!

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Well over 5000 cases per day on the Zoe app

I trust this app....probably more these days than government stats. Zoe records folk with symptoms who have self-reported. It's a very good site. Likewise the ONS stats.

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19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I trust this app....probably more these days than government stats. Zoe records folk with symptoms who have self-reported. It's a very good site. Likewise the ONS stats.

Yes indeed, and a quick plug, the more that report the better the data.Over 4 million of us report... sign up here...

https://covid.joinzoe.com/

Edited by Van wink

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Considering the ONS has revised the number of deaths from 41K to 52K in  England and Wales, and 57K overall a difference not much lower than the town I live in, then I trust nothing at the moment. How can it be out by over 25% when they off nearly 5K not long ago.

All we have is an opinion and our own beliefs. And those are based on stats and figures. Ones that obviously can't be believed. 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

That's a tricky one as it depends on how effective our current (or yet to be imposed) restrictions are - and also how long it takes to  jump into the the more elderly population from the house party/barbeque group in the good weather.

I would give it a month for everybody to start realizing it's back and deaths ticking up significantly at the latest-  and then if we don't take more decisive action towards Christmas for a true calamity - probably  not quite so intense but more drawn out than the first (better treatments and understanding  etc). What I would hope is that we take effective preventative action early (T, T & ISOLATE) early to avoid the big hit again.

As an aside was in Gaol Hill Tesco yesterday lunchtime. Two customers without mask - a smart young woman and what looked like a workman. They both should of been shown the door. Therein lies the problem. Apathy and ignorance.  It's not if you think masks are effective or otherwise but all doing the 'right' things aka Japan. They will surely hang separately! 

Let's not hope we have flu pandemic this year as well!

 

 

 

I see no evidence for any big uplift at the moment. That might change but so far I am quite sceptical about a major second wave. Let's see how it goes for the next couple of weeks.

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I am shocked that I have posted twice that the ONS has revealed the real death figure-yes that is human beings dying-and no-one has batted an eyelid but are more concerned with guessing the future.

Amazing how blase it all is.  Just old people dying.

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23 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I am shocked that I have posted twice that the ONS has revealed the real death figure-yes that is human beings dying-and no-one has batted an eyelid but are more concerned with guessing the future.

Amazing how blase it all is.  Just old people dying.

In answer to your lack of trust of figures, I suggest the ONS is very faithful as a source. But as ever, figures are just that, they hide the real human stories. 

Meaning is found in the life of the individual. Always. 

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

I trust this app....probably more these days than government stats. Zoe records folk with symptoms who have self-reported. It's a very good site. Likewise the ONS stats.

Doesn't look too great for the upcoming winter period does it? Thing is, I don't think that having a 2nd lockdown will actually solve much either. I think that would just create more problems than it solves. Surely the best step would be to tell the elderly to shield and try ride out this winter? I think it's just getting to the point where we can't just keep kicking the can down the road forever.

Does anyone actually think a 2nd lockdown would work? If so, then what?

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49 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I am shocked that I have posted twice that the ONS has revealed the real death figure-yes that is human beings dying-and no-one has batted an eyelid but are more concerned with guessing the future.

Amazing how blase it all is.  Just old people dying.

I think that the ONS looks at deaths with covid on the certificate as the cause or as a contributing factor refrdkezs of test status (though a positive test is always included) .  The 'official figures' require a positive test with 28 days.

ONS has always been higher as far as i know.

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14 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Doesn't look too great for the upcoming winter period does it? Thing is, I don't think that having a 2nd lockdown will actually solve much either. I think that would just create more problems than it solves. Surely the best step would be to tell the elderly to shield and try ride out this winter? I think it's just getting to the point where we can't just keep kicking the can down the road forever.

Does anyone actually think a 2nd lockdown would work? If so, then what?

I dont think there is wide support for a full lockdown, here or generally. When I asked this question only YF was really in favour and then in a limited fashion if I remember correctly.

Regardless of what is to be made of Sweden, the majority are probably of the 'lock up the old and the fragile' persuasion.

There are no easy answers and the problem with the lock up the old approach (besides the lack of liberty enjoyed by those in this group, a big issue in itself) is that the more it circulates generally the harder it is to protect the vulnerable.  Just ask the swedes, where most deaths were of care bone residents.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I dont think there is wide support for a full lockdown, here or generally. When I asked this question only YF was really in favour and then in a limited fashion if I remember correctly.

Regardless of what is to be made of Sweden, the majority are probably of the 'lock up the old and the fragile' persuasion.

There are no easy answers and the problem with the lock up the old approach (besides the lack of liberty enjoyed by those in this group, a big issue in itself) is that the more it circulates generally the harder it is to protect the vulnerable.  Just ask the swedes, where most deaths were of care bone residents.

It's not thst I want a full lockdown - I don't but I would act sooner and more ruthlessly on Covid rather than the current reactive almost relaxed posture.

I see tonight that the govt are saying we try this rule of six for two weeks and if its not working more draconian steps to follow (10pm curfew keeps getting mentioned and so on).

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36 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Doesn't look too great for the upcoming winter period does it? Thing is, I don't think that having a 2nd lockdown will actually solve much either. I think that would just create more problems than it solves. Surely the best step would be to tell the elderly to shield and try ride out this winter? I think it's just getting to the point where we can't just keep kicking the can down the road forever.

Does anyone actually think a 2nd lockdown would work? If so, then what?

It doesn't have a good feel about it. Yet, I agree with your point about 2nd lockdown. It would amplify economic problems. I would prefer stronger messaging though by the government. They seem to be hard on some stuff (eg. Brexit!) but much softer on C19, lurching one way then another.

Just hope local administrations take a firmer hold as infections appear plus we keep finding good treatments and the much hoped-for vaccine arrives for the winter.

Edited by sonyc

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16 hours ago, ricardo said:

I see no evidence for any big uplift at the moment. That might change but so far I am quite sceptical about a major second wave. Let's see how it goes for the next couple of weeks.

The Facts4EU team are also sceptical, Ricardo:

 

OFFICIAL: You are now 100 TIMES more likely to die of non-COVID causes

What about cancer & heart patients? It’s time for a “Rule of the Sick”, not a “Rule of Six”

covid_pie_chart_160920.jpg

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org 2020

Only 1% of all deaths are now “with” COVID - When will we stand up to this totalitarian insanity?

Many readers will disagree with this, but we felt we had to publish the facts
Even above Brexit, we value democracy, civil liberties, and personal freedom

Facts4EU.Org has spent almost five years, day in and day out, exposing the totalitarian and sclerotic nightmare that is the European Union.

We never thought we would have to expose our own Government and most other governments around the world for adopting wholly disproportionate, undemocratic, and dictatorial denials of basic freedoms. Sadly this is where we now are, and where we have been for over six months.

If you think our stance on the Coronavirus is wrong, all we ask is that you look at the facts

Brexit Facts4EU.Org Summary

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics, published 15 Sept 2020

  • Deaths “with COVID” are now only 1% of all deaths in the latest reported week
  • 7,739 people died from all causes in Week 36
  • There were 1,443 fewer deaths than the five-year average – that's -15.7%
  • Out of 7,739 deaths, just 78 mentioned COVID on the death certificate

covid_pie_chart_160920.jpg

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge

covid_deaths_chart_160920.jpg

© Brexit Facts4EU.Org - click to enlarge

We know from opinion polls that most people support the actions that have been taken by governments around the world. People believe what they have seen and read from an almost totally compliant, unquestioning, and complicit media.

Please hear us out

In our experience, Brexiteers are fair people who review the facts and make their decisions accordingly. We hope you will therefore give us a fair hearing on COVID. If you disagree, feel free to comment below.

Our business is cold, hard facts. For nearly five years we have delved deeply into the EU’s official facts and databases, analysed them, and brought readers punchy articles showing what the EU really does and what its intentions are.

With COVID we applied the same approach, only this time we used data from the Office for National Statistics, NHS, Public Health England, and other official UK bodies, as well as looking at the WHO’s constantly changing statements.

The most widespread experiment in the control of national populations in the history of the world

As Brexit specialists, we have only published the facts about COVID over the past six months because of our deep and growing concerns at the ways in which this virus has been used to apply extreme measures against the general population. These totalitarian measures are unparalleled outside wartime.

The debate in the UK right now is all about whether the Government will be breaking international law with its Internal Markets Bill. No-one is mentioning that international law is being broken on a daily basis by the draconian measures to control the Coronavirus by EU and other governments.

International law is being broken everywhere, on a grand scale

International human rights law lays down the obligations of governments to act in certain ways or to refrain from certain acts, in order to promote and protect human rights and fundamental freedoms of individuals or groups. The foundations of this body of law are in the United Nations Universal Declaration of Human Rights, adopted by the General Assembly in 1948.

Here are just some of the rights embedded in international law:

  • The right to life and liberty
  • The right to freedom of opinion and expression
  • The right to work in just and favourable conditions
  • The right to education
  • The right to social protection
  • The right to the highest attainable standards of physical and mental well-being

We would argue that almost every country in the world is breaking international law by the measures being imposed on populations by national governments.

Observations

The response to COVID should be about proportionality

The latest figures from the ONS, released yesterday, show that you are 100 times more likely to die of non-COVID related causes than from dying “with” (not of) COVID.

Children are more likely to die from being run over and then also being struck by lightning, than they are of dying from the Coronavirus.

The number of infections is what the Government and the media report. We suggest that the first headline figures should be :-

  • The number of deaths "with COVID"
  • This number as a percentage of deaths from all causes
  • The number of hospital admissions "with COVID"
  • This number as a percentage of the 5-year average of hospital admissions from all causes

Then the public would finally get a sense of perspective.

It’s time for a “Rule of the Sick”, not a “Rule of Six”

The most prolific life-threatening illnesses are cancer and heart disease. Covid is now so far down on the list of killer diseases as to be considered ‘minor’.

With so many hospital beds empty and the number of appointments for cancer, heart disease, and other serious conditions at an historic low, is it not time for the Government to promote a “Rule of the Sick” to prioritise these people and give them hope?

Finally, what kind of country do we want to live in?

Members of our team visited or lived in some former Communist states. One of the more extreme examples was Frau Angela Merkel’s country – the former East Germany - where the Stasi secret police inculcated an atmosphere of fear and established an enormous network of informers spying on their neighbours.

Is this really what we want for the United Kingdom – the world’s cradle of freedom and democracy - in 2020?

 

 

[ Sources: Office for National Statistics weekly report, 15 Sept 2020 | The United Nations ] Politicians and journalists can contact us for details, as ever.

Brexit Facts4EU.Org, Wed 16 Sept 2020

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There does seem to be a very low tolerance to risk from UK government to another flare up, in comparison to US your numbers are very low. 

Classic case of trust now in play - if you have eroded public trust by constant lying then the public will not likely trust anything you say about the next steps in Coronavirus management. 

If the graph above is accurate, it should be a very obvious visual data point the government can publicize to show the measures taken have dramatically lowered public risks and that they need to continue the (define what they are here) policies that lead to that success. 

IMO it’s masks and doing as much outdoors as possible, two things that you can mandate and will retain public support for several months.
 

Here we have a polarized split in attitudes that conceals a major flaw in macro level stats. It would appear that US new cases are declining and positive test rates have fallen below 5% (still much higher than UK) But looking more closely, New England region is 1%, the West Coast states about 2%, South and Mid West between 8 and 16%? Why so high? In part It’s because the number of tests performed in the latter region are falling and so the number of new cases identified is falling too. It’s hiding the problem temporarily and bending the national rates towards politically desired “the Virus is under control” messaging, just as other regions actually getting control does, but under testing will show up in increasing hospitalizations and deaths - as is already showing up in Florida; a critical State in Nov presidential election. 

So I wish you all well in the UK, and hope the focus can shift back to economic recovery. 

Here we’ll plan on continuing regional based actions as the national government apparently has no intent to actually govern, and one person in particular is hell bent on doing everything he can to make CV spread worse not better.

its a shame the Confederate State politicians want to rerun the Civil War on themselves but there you go - vote for stupid, stupid is what you get. 

Planning to visit the US? Come to New York or Los Angeles or Washington DC, but stay the heck away from Atlanta, Houston or Miami. 


 

 

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Perhaps if you hadn't voted for a right wing government Jools, you might not be facing totalitarian measures. Its your stupid blonde friend who can't make a decision.

I find your type as always the ones to moan first.

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27 minutes ago, Surfer said:

 

its a shame the Confederate State politicians want to rerun the Civil War on themselves but there you go - vote for stupid, stupid is what you get. 

 

I doubt that the exConfederate states want to re-run the Civil War but if they did then looking at the casualty list you would have to say they are winning hands down. The top four states in deaths per million are all Union states, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Conecticut. The first Confederate state, Louisiana appears in 5th place.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

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 positives  up a bit

Latest UK Numbers  3991 - 20

Inpatients  901 that is down 71 from yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1229 - 9

France 7852 - 49

Spain   9437 -156

Germany  1623 - 9

Spain appears to include numbers from Sat and Sun which have only just been released

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36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

 positives  up a bit

Latest UK Numbers  3991 - 20

Inpatients  901 that is down 71 from yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European. (incomplete)

Italy   1229 - 9

France 7852 - 49

Spain   9437 -156

Germany  1623 - 9

Spain appears to include numbers from Sat and Sun which have only just been released

Zoe has 5342 today

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I see the lockdown today reported for the Rhondda has been linked to bus trips to the Doncaster races, with stops on and off at pubs there and back. And for that, a whole area of thousands is under pressure and lives are restricted.

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18 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Zoe has 5342 today

Thanks VW.  Quite believable and if my memory serves me right ONS say doubling every 7 days at present.

As noted the official numbers are somewhat dated and I guess 'blocky' as to when they arrive / reported.

 

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18 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I see the lockdown today reported for the Rhondda has been linked to bus trips to the Doncaster races, with stops on and off at pubs there and back. And for that, a whole area of thousands is under pressure and lives are restricted.

So sad, so unnecessary and so so selfish. What is it with horse racing  (or football / grouse shooters & supporters come to that)?

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

I doubt that the exConfederate states want to re-run the Civil War but if they did then looking at the casualty list you would have to say they are winning hands down. The top four states in deaths per million are all Union states, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Conecticut. The first Confederate state, Louisiana appears in 5th place.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Yes but also the first, and densely populated, region to experience a CoronaVirus outbreak. A region now testing at less than 1% positive rate and recently one of the lowest death rates in the US. 

The other States could have taken lessons from them but many willfully ignored the lessons and are still ignoring the lessons - hence the ex-Confederate States now have the biggest problem - you just have to adjust your statistics window be the last 90 days. 

Edited by Surfer

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26 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Yes but also the first, densely populated, region to experience a CoroaVirus outbreak. A region now testing at less than 1% positive rate and one of the lowest death rates in the US. 

The other States could have taken lessons from then but many willfully gnoses it and are still ignoring it - hence the ex-Confederate States now have the biggest problem once you measure over the last 90 days. 

Indeed and you would expect the first states to be infected would also be the first states to decline.  Those infected later now appear to be in decline also. 

 Thankfully Sherman isnt still  marching through Georgia😉

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

I doubt that the exConfederate states want to re-run the Civil War but if they did then looking at the casualty list you would have to say they are winning hands down. The top four states in deaths per million are all Union states, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Conecticut. The first Confederate state, Louisiana appears in 5th place.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

All that moonshine and incest finally paying off? 

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2 minutes ago, Herman said:

All that moonshine and incest finally paying off? 

Squeel like a piggy boy😉👍

Edited by ricardo
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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

I see the lockdown today reported for the Rhondda has been linked to bus trips to the Doncaster races, with stops on and off at pubs there and back. And for that, a whole area of thousands is under pressure and lives are restricted.

https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/rct-lockdown-coronavirus-local-rhondda-18909356
 

Yep and a few other things as well by the looks of it, but sadly sonyc things are looking pretty grim Covid wise for Wales atm. I would suspect we also see large numbers of vulnerable individuals in the socially deprived areas, of which we both know there are many.

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