Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 6,143]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

How are the chickens doing?🐓

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,304]

Látrabjarg, yesterday

The lighthouse at the cliff at the west end of Látrabjarg is described by guide book as the western most point of Europe (I think they forgot/ignored The Azores)

Nearest significant population is Patreksfjörður, 60 km away,  population around 700

 

 

Edited August 26, 2020 by How I Wrote Elastic Man
added "yesterday"

[sonyc 6,143]

11 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Látrabjarg, yesterday

The lighthouse at the cliff at the west end of Látrabjarg is described by guide book as the western most point of Europe (I think they forgot/ignored The Azores)

Nearest significant population is Patreksfjörður, 60 km away,  population around 700

 

 

Perhaps the sign should have two puffins then and not people?

[Herman 11,112]

For some reason that reminds me of the picnic episode of Father Ted. 

[Van wink 2,994]

14 hours ago, Van wink said:

Banham poultry outbreak approaching 50 positives.

Nearer 70 cases now

[T 190]

Credit to Boris for getting a personal trainer. Not affordable for everyone but fully support the notion of setting a good example that the UK needs to get fitter. 

[Herman 11,112]

1 hour ago, T said:

Credit to Boris for getting a personal trainer. Not affordable for everyone but fully support the notion of setting a good example that the UK needs to get fitter. 

Breaking news. Boris Johnson has just eaten his personal trainer. 

[ricardo 7,928]

Who could have guessed they would do a thing like that?

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/high-alert-over-spike-of-coronavirus-infections-in-europe

A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.

[Barbe bleu 1,031]

I think ours is 28 days from first positive test.  Either way is this going to be under reporting the number of death of (rather than with) coronavirus?  21 days start to finish seems pretty quick.

Whatever the pros and cos of putting a limit to the counting perhaps it is infections that will give us the best idea of spread? A reversal obviously of the former position.

 

Edited August 27, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Van wink 2,994]

21 days.....

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Who could have guessed they would do a thing like that?

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/high-alert-over-spike-of-coronavirus-infections-in-europe

A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.

I cant believe that European Governments would pull a stunt like that, 21 days, my word!!

[sonyc 6,143]

About 1500 new cases today. That is a big rise isnt it? Perhaps we might see a trajectory like those across the Channel.

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

About 1500 new cases today. That is a big rise isnt it? Perhaps we might see a trajectory like those across the Channel.

We will I'm afraid, and prepare for the other indicators to start rising as well.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Van wink

[T 190]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Who could have guessed they would do a thing like that?

 

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/high-alert-over-spike-of-coronavirus-infections-in-europe

A tweak in the way European governments count the number of fatalities is also keeping these figures down; mortality statistics now only include those dead within 21 days after they were diagnosed with the virus, thereby excluding the elderly who may have been infected, but who could have died from other natural causes.

I appreciate that you should be feeling guilty for helping facilitate one of the worst performing governments  in the World but your feeble attempts to deflects and deny this are  totally pathetic. I’m not sure how may deaths and economic hits it would take for some people  to admit they helped facilitate an incompetent government. and all the resulting excess deaths and job losses and accept and apologise for their contribution to the abysmal UK performance. 

[Yellow Fever 4,388]

27 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We will I'm afraid, and prepare for the other indicators to start rising as well.

Sadly true and totally expected. We are still in the noise but creeping up it is. Schools back next week (Which I agree with but that won't help case numbers!). I expect that with Covid returning the schools returning will also eventually become unsustainable / unsafe in the autumn - too many staff and pupil absent (isolating). Plan B ?

As to 21, 28 days or whatever doesn't really both me - it's the excess deaths that matter for comparison (although I did see an item that pointed out that Covid precautions may actually depress such deaths due to  other communicable diseases such as common flu !)

Buckle up!

Edited August 27, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Barbe bleu 1,031]

29 minutes ago, T said:

I appreciate that you should be feeling guilty for helping facilitate one of the worst performing governments  in the World but your feeble attempts to deflects and deny this are  totally pathetic. I’m not sure how may deaths and economic hits it would take for some people  to admit they helped facilitate an incompetent government. and all the resulting excess deaths and job losses and accept and apologise for their contribution to the abysmal UK performance. 

The problem with a change to 21 days is that it risks the wrong lessons being learnt.

What if most people in a country die after 22 days? If we are not careful the under reporting this could cause has the potential to change our policy approach and our individual behaviour.

We are already convincing ourselves that for one reason or another this thing is weakening and acting accordingly. What if the reason we are seeing much lower deaths is a statistical adjustment and that in truth its as bad as its ever been?

On the opposite side of the coin what if one country is doing truly excellent things but because they adopt a stricter criteria they appear to be failing?  Do we ignore what they are doing?

[It's Character Forming 1,203]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

About 1500 new cases today. That is a big rise isnt it? Perhaps we might see a trajectory like those across the Channel.

Yes although frustratingly it's still hard to find the % of tests that are positive.  But the actual number of confirmed cases has been wobbling around 1,000/day for a while so 1,500 is a worrying step up.

 

Another news story is saying that rates are coming down in areas that have had local lockdowns, but it's starting to spike in some other areas.  So they need to start to relax the previous local lockdowns and bring in some new ones.

 

Definitely a worry with schools going back next week. 

[Van wink 2,994]

29 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The problem with a change to 21 days is that it risks the wrong lessons being learnt.

What if most people in a country die after 22 days? If we are not careful the under reporting this could cause has the potential to change our policy approach and our individual behaviour.

We are already convincing ourselves that for one reason or another this thing is weakening and acting accordingly. What if the reason we are seeing much lower deaths is a statistical adjustment and that in truth its as bad as its ever been?

On the opposite side of the coin what if one country is doing truly excellent things but because they adopt a stricter criteria they appear to be failing?  Do we ignore what they are doing?

I shouldn’t try a reasoned reply with T, he’s another Billy.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes although frustratingly it's still hard to find the % of tests that are positive.  But the actual number of confirmed cases has been wobbling around 1,000/day for a while so 1,500 is a worrying step up.

 

Another news story is saying that rates are coming down in areas that have had local lockdowns, but it's starting to spike in some other areas.  So they need to start to relax the previous local lockdowns and bring in some new ones.

 

Definitely a worry with schools going back next week. 

I’m afraid the inevitable is going to happen. 

[ricardo 7,928]

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

still in the range 0.4 to 0.8% of positives.

patients in hospital still going down

 

yesterdays totals from France, Spain, Italy and Germany,

5429, 3594, 1367, 1428

 

Testing being stepped up across Europe.

 

[ricardo 7,928]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

About 1500 new cases today. That is a big rise isnt it? Perhaps we might see a trajectory like those across the Channel.

We may well do but in the context of 186.5k tests it still represents under 1% of those tested.

Other European countries have only just stepped up testing and no surprise have found more positives.

The higher the number of tests the more accurate a handle you have on whats going on.

Edited August 27, 2020 by ricardo

[T 190]

It is all just noise. What matters is why the UK has one of the worst performing governments in the world. The UK needs an emergency coalition government based on ability rather than nationalistic idealoogy because the current PM and government is clearly not competent.  

[sonyc 6,143]

9 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes although frustratingly it's still hard to find the % of tests that are positive.  But the actual number of confirmed cases has been wobbling around 1,000/day for a while so 1,500 is a worrying step up.

 

Another news story is saying that rates are coming down in areas that have had local lockdowns, but it's starting to spike in some other areas.  So they need to start to relax the previous local lockdowns and bring in some new ones.

 

Definitely a worry with schools going back next week. 

Agree. Schools are a big worry. In the local authority area I live, the rates of new infections are falling (Zoe app) and quite sharply. Talk is that the local lockdown measures in force might be relaxed tomorrow (family members currently unable to meet unless in a support bubble). Yet, as you mention, other areas must be increasing.

It's a strange thing.

Why the rises right now and yet not 2 weeks ago? What has changed? Spikes do seem linked to specific places (e.g. food plants) but I wonder whether people are becoming complacent and have reverted to previous behaviours (night clubs to give one example?).

[sonyc 6,143]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We may well do but in the context of 186.5k tests it still represents under 1% of those tested.

Other European countries have only just stepped up testing and no surprise have found more positives.

The higher the number of tests the more accurate a handle you have on whats going on.

I hope it is containable. I fear not. Your graph shows a similar trajectory.

Yet ...our testing numbers have been far more praiseworthy of late and that EU paper I posted (last week?) shows UK testing rates far higher (double or more in some cases) than many countries. 

[Van wink 2,994]

35 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I hope it is containable. I fear not. Your graph shows a similar trajectory.

Yet ...our testing numbers have been far more praiseworthy of late and that EU paper I posted (last week?) shows UK testing rates far higher (double or more in some cases) than many countries. 

U.K. testing is good now and that leads in to contact tracing so does put us in a reasonable position this time round

[Barbe bleu 1,031]

35 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I hope it is containable. I fear not. Your graph shows a similar trajectory.

Yet ...our testing numbers have been far more praiseworthy of late and that EU paper I posted (last week?) shows UK testing rates far higher (double or more in some cases) than many countries. 

We are undoubtedly much better set now than in Feb or March but are our returns just two weeks behind like they were then?

[ricardo 7,928]

31 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

We are undoubtedly much better set now than in Feb or March but are our returns just two weeks behind like they were then?

Time will tell.

[Aggy 941]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

We are undoubtedly much better set now than in Feb or March but are our returns just two weeks behind like they were then?

Sorry if I’ve misinterpreted here, but assuming you mean are we just two weeks behind the rest of Europe, in terms of deaths, the three day average deaths over on the continent isn’t going up either. 

[Barbe bleu 1,031]

40 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Sorry if I’ve misinterpreted here, but assuming you mean are we just two weeks behind the rest of Europe, in terms of deaths, the three day average deaths over on the continent isn’t going up either. 

I'm not convinced that capping reports at 21 days would record most deaths.  No specialist knowledge on this just reports from the peak were quite often of lingering disease. For that reason I am not sure how much salt to take with the death reports.

I was more musing about whether or not our comparative success with infections is real or will catch up as it did before

[Aggy 941]

23 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not convinced that capping reports at 21 days would record most deaths.  No specialist knowledge on this just reports from the peak were quite often of lingering disease. For that reason I am not sure how much salt to take with the death reports.

I was more musing about whether or not our comparative success with infections is real or will catch up as it did before

If you’re admitted to hospital, you’ll be retested on admission. So if you’re in your 80s and admitted to hospital with it, my guess is that the majority die within 21 days of hospital admission. 

We cap it at 28 don’t we, so in terms of our figures vs European figures, I doubt there’s much difference as a result of the seven day difference (especially given that the number of daily deaths are so low - we’re perhaps talking 2 or 3 deaths a day additionally if you were capping at 28 days instead of 21 I would guess).

Flip side is also that earlier in the year before the change in time cap, there were plenty of people being recorded as having died “from” covid when they’d had it weeks, sometimes months, earlier and it was other things that ultimately killed them. We’ve been under the five year average for weekly deaths now for ages - that rather suggests a not insignificant number who died from it previously were probably likely to die of something else in the following months - did they actually die “from” covid?

 

Edit: id also add that hospital admission figures aren’t changing either, which weakens an argument that capping at 21 or 28 days is somehow fiddling the numbers. 

Edited August 27, 2020 by Aggy

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,304]

On 26/08/2020 at 17:45, Van wink said:

Banham poultry outbreak approaching 50 positives.

Lockdown for Norfolk?

Or the Mail being alarmist?

Norfolk lockdown