Corona Virus main thread

[Bill 1,788]

As long as there are those infected still mixing with others the virus will continue to spread - and the more mixing, the more folk take less care with handwashing etc

This will just have to play its way out with the hope that a mutation does not become virulent, as that could simply mean ;starting all over again'.

And when anyone goes into a shop, check how man people are sanitising their hands - virtually no one.

Maybe if the 'tea leaf gazers' could come up with the percentage of usage of hand washing they might serve a purpose.

[sonyc 5,510]

Some original research articles in Nature emagazine shared for interest (click blue links within each introduction):

 

 Coronavirus research updates: An unprecedented map charts a key viral protein

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00502-w

 

[ricardo 7,384]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Very hard to believe that figure mean much with this virus.

Cornwall has had record numbers of visitors for a month or so. Social distancing in certain places is non existent.

But although we have had one new attributable death this week, our rate is 2.3 per thousand and dropping.

We have had more problems with know all bleddy swimmers than Covid.

Open air contagion is minimal, just don't invite any splutterers into your living room.

Edited August 20, 2020 by ricardo

[sonyc 5,510]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

It's very hard not to see Europe and indeed parts of Asia with much better T&T that reopened earlier ahead of us now slipping back into Covid. I'm not hopeful we won't follow given the faltering social distancing and a return to school.

I have been interested in the school re-opening debate and noted a study today.

Looking at children as the silent spreaders of SARS-CoV-2 – Harvard Gazette https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/08/looking-at-children-as-the-silent-spreaders-of-sars-cov-2/

As yet, there seems little evidence of the rate of transmission or infectiousness I believe.

The younger age group (especially aged 18-24) is also demonstrating the highest infection rates (Independent today).

Edited August 20, 2020 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

It's very hard not to see Europe and indeed parts of Asia with much better T&T that reopened earlier ahead of us now slipping back into Covid. I'm not hopeful we won't follow given the faltering social distancing and a return to school.

It’s difficult to come  to any other conclusion but I’m not sure that the data is supporting our view atm. All very interesting.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Open air contagion is minimal, just don't invite any splutterers into your living room.

I saw a splutterer today on a bike. Needed to pull his choke out.

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It’s difficult to come  to any other conclusion but I’m not sure that the data is supporting our view atm. All very interesting.

I think the 'supertanker' is much slower to start/stop then we realize - plus the large number of asymptomatic cases and possible low hanging fruit may have been 'already picked-off' by the virus in Spring and early summer. Care homes and the like remain on full alert and pre-warned. Not the same mistake there twice!

But I'm not hopeful! I suspect another 'perfect storm' is brewing for Boris.

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

1182 cases today. Going UP.

[Van wink 2,994]

Brewing for us is what concerns me more to be honest. As for Boris he seems to have disappeared.....again!

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

1182 cases today. Going UP.

Not really, fluctuating 

[ricardo 7,384]

40 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

1182 cases today. Going UP.

No, 190k tests today so a little over 0.6 percent.

It has been steady at between 0.4 and 0.8 for a couple of weeks as all tealeaf gazers will confirm.😉

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Note. Number in hospital and daily admissions sharply down.

 

Edited August 20, 2020 by ricardo

[Bill 1,788]

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

No, 190k tests today so a little over 0.6 percent.

It has been steady at between 0.4 and 0.8 for a couple of weeks as all tealeaf gazers will confirm.😉

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Note. Number in hospital and daily admissions sharply down.

They we are

trends over numbers

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Bill said:

They we are

trends over numbers

Of course Bill, that’s what everyone has been saying. Welcome aboard, better late than never .👍

[Bill 1,788]

actually quite the opposite

the focus has been on numbers with no reference to any wider picture, or context

which has allowed tge 'not too bright; to see this as not only a barometer of the infection and death rate, but as some prediction method

and I am no more  'on board' with such idiocy as I am on board with palmistry

 

ps I hope you have been busy with the NHS today... what was it cardiology neurology..... ? 😊

[Van wink 2,994]

31 minutes ago, Bill said:

actually quite the opposite

the focus has been on numbers with no reference to any wider picture, or context

which has allowed tge 'not too bright; to see this as not only a barometer of the infection and death rate, but as some prediction method

and I am no more  'on board' with such idiocy as I am on board with palmistry

 

ps I hope you have been busy with the NHS today... what was it cardiology neurology..... ? 😊

No wrong again Bill. I’m sorry but the posting on here has always had the trends as a compass point, the fact that you choose to excite yourself over each individual post lends more to your attention seeking behaviour than the fault of posters. No shifts for the NHS today Billy, been working for the MOJ 😉

[Aggy 754]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

No, 190k tests today so a little over 0.6 percent.

It has been steady at between 0.4 and 0.8 for a couple of weeks as all tealeaf gazers will confirm.😉

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Note. Number in hospital and daily admissions sharply down.

 

Looking at the basic overview graphs on the first page as you click the link (which show the rolling seven day average without the detail).....the seven day average number of tests levelled in early August and at virtually the same time the seven day average number of new infections levelled off and even began to decrease. Can’t be a coincidence

[Van wink 2,994]

15 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think the 'supertanker' is much slower to start/stop then we realize - plus the large number of asymptomatic cases and possible low hanging fruit may have been 'already picked-off' by the virus in Spring and early summer. Care homes and the like remain on full alert and pre-warned. Not the same mistake there twice!

But I'm not hopeful! I suspect another 'perfect storm' is brewing for Boris.

“ Low hanging fruit” Is an interesting concept. I’m not optimistic that it’s been picked, I’m probably hanging pretty low, figuratively speaking😁, as will be many on this board, but not yet picked fortunately. What I suspect is happening is that the virus is circulating amongst the young at the moment but as the winter approaches it will move out of that group and start picking off low hanging fruit again, particularly if people become complacent.

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

“ Low hanging fruit” Is an interesting concept. I’m not optimistic that it’s been picked, I’m probably hanging pretty low, figuratively speaking😁, as will be many on this board, but not yet picked fortunately. What I suspect is happening is that the virus is circulating amongst the young at the moment but as the winter approaches it will move out of that group and start picking off low hanging fruit again, particularly if people become complacent.

Yes I agree - but much of the 'low hanging fruit' is now very much forewarned and climbing the branches. 

[Van wink 2,994]

59 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes I agree - but much of the 'low hanging fruit' is now very much forewarned and climbing the branches. 

I know exactly what you mean.In fact saw Billy climbing a fruit tree last week looking for his plums.😀

[Van wink 2,994]

Latest data -

NHS Test and Trace Stats   Statistics from the eleventh week (6th to 12th August) of operation of NHS Test and Trace published yesterday show the service is consistently reaching the majority of those testing positive and their contacts, and delivering rapid testing at scale.    The latest stats from 6th - 12th August) of NHS Test and Trace shows that:  Between 6 August and 12 August, 431,268 people were newly tested for coronavirus (COVID-19), a decrease of 2% from the previous week. 6,616 new people had a positive result, an increase of 27% from the previous week Testing turnaround times for pillar 2 (swab testing for the wider population) have increased in the latest 2 weeks. 60.5% of in person tests were returned within 24 hours compared to 70.3% the previous week. 14.5% of home/satellite tests were returned within 48 hours compared to 33.2% the previous week. 4,803 people were transferred to the contract tracing system between 6 and 12 August. This is a decrease of 3% compared to the previous week, mainly due to a delay in processing that resulted in 681 people not having their cases transferred to the contract tracing system until after end of this week’s reporting period. Of those transferred to the contact tracing system between 6 August and 12 August, 78.8% were reached and asked to provide information about their contacts. This has remained broadly constant since the middle of June. 16,897 people were identified as coming into close contact with someone who has tested positive during this time. Of these, 71.3% were reached and asked to self-isolate, compared to 74.2% in the previous week. This percentage has remained approximately constant for the last 5 weeks. 1,204,118 tests were processed in the UK, across all pillars, between the week from 6 August to 12 August, this is approximately consistent with the previous week. Testing capacity between 6 August and 12 August was at 2,363,118 tests per week, similar to the previous week.

[ricardo 7,384]

Al indicators still heading in the right direction.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

[Bill 1,788]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Al indicators still heading in the right direction.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Which would rather suggest all those hundreds of thousands on the beaches, and in the parks not wearing fancy dress rather demonstrates that yours and hand cranks fetish is not really of any worth

Edited August 21, 2020 by Bill

[Van wink 2,994]

23 minutes ago, Bill said:

Which would rather suggest all those hundreds of thousands on the beaches, and in the parks not wearing fancy dress rather demonstrates that yours and hand cranks fetish is not really of any worth

[ricardo 7,384]

It has been clearly established that open air transmission is minimal. Crowds in enclosed environments is where we get the spread. 

[Bill 1,788]

Just now, ricardo said:

It has been clearly established that open air transmission is minimal. Crowds in enclosed environments is where we get the spread. 

So why allow the above without fancy dress, pubs ?

[ricardo 7,384]

20 minutes ago, Bill said:

So why allow the above without fancy dress, pubs ?

The  pubs round here only serve outside tables.

[Bill 1,788]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The  pubs round here only serve outside tables.

elsewhere they serve customers.....inside

and those customers remain inside

the point is that this virus is a bit more complicated that what is being put out - and deluding folk that sporting fancy dress in certain and contradictory places is more of a harm than ever it is of any prevention

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

Al indicators still heading in the right direction.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

 

Still that new rise in the number of cases. Not completely convinced yet that it is just increased testing. There are still millions of us who have been nowhere near a testing station.

[Aggy 754]

4 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Still that new rise in the number of cases. Not completely convinced yet that it is just increased testing. There are still millions of us who have been nowhere near a testing station.

How does the fact millions of people haven’t been tested make you unconvinced the increased number of infections is a result of testing?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

10 hours ago, Aggy said:

How does the fact millions of people haven’t been tested make you unconvinced the increased number of infections is a result of testing?

Because increased testing is almost being used (remember Trump?) as a safety valve to say there is no need to worry, its just testing.