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44 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

This bloody bet thing.  Just both of you accept and lets get it done.  Bill, how about you pay £1 if caught out and VW you pay £400?

there's no 'bet thing'

as you of all people should know 😜

just hand crank caught out lying...again

 

ps remember when he was going to 'blow me out of the water'.... I wonder what happened to that 🤔

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Calling people liars on so many threads Billy, but when put to the test you don’t have the balls to back it up. 
Bit of a Jaffa 😉

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Tier 2 = NHS

Tier 3 = Serco.

Either this or t'other way round.

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I think that everyone has drawn their own conclusions on the basis of Bills reticence (and wondered why the witchfinder 🧙‍♀️ general thought you might be lying about something so innocuous anyway.)

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think that everyone has drawn their own conclusions on the basis of Bills reticence (and wondered why the witchfinder 🧙‍♀️ general thought you might be lying about something so innocuous anyway.)

my reticence ...... oh dear hand crank, you really are getting desperate now

hand crank made the claim (lie) so I think it is acceptable for him to prove that claim

why cannot he not provide evidence of his claim, simple as that

 

and others might wonder that the person I know to be hand crank BB is getting so involved, more so after I was supposed to spoil all threads

bring back RTB is my thought

now cough up hand crank, and prove that I am a liar

because if the boot was on the other foot I would have cleared my name at the first instance - but we both know why you can't 🤥

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that's an unusual NHS payslip, hand crank 😅

come on, 'blow me out of the water'

with your evidence

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3 minutes ago, Bill said:

that's an unusual NHS payslip, hand crank 😅

come on, 'blow me out of the water'

with your evidence

The offer is still there Billy, surely you would like to see me cough up £400 to charity. If you are so convinced I am lying call my bluff... as I said earlier, if you haven’t got the balls STFU 😘

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It is not a game of poker

I am not obliged to put money on the table to 'see you'

If there was any evidence in the slightest you would have put it up knowing that would damn me for eternity, so to speak

The reason you cannot provide evidence is there is none, as we both know

So I won't wait for anything, as with the accusations that I stole money from the legion they isn't any

Though there is plenty of evidence of RTB continuously backing you on that lie, and BB on this lie.

What that is I leave others to ponder - why you have no evidence I think they have already worked out

 

fin

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7 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'd be interested to hear from aggy and ricardo on this.

We should be seeing the effect of Scottish schools opening soon i guess which could inform English policy but with proposed re openings happening soon we might not have too much to go on before decisions need to be taken.

My view is that if there is a trade off it must be in favour of schools and that we might not have the data to make an informed decision by the time one is due which means an instinctual approach is required.

That being said surely we know what level of spread is caused by school children by now!

 

 

I doubt there will ever be a trade off. Pubs, restaurants, hotels etc closing isn’t just people missing out on a drink with their mates, it’s livelihoods lost. And if it’s ‘acceptable’ for kids to run around getting and spreading covid, why are young, healthy, very low risk adults going to stand for having their livelihoods taken away? 

Especially when deaths and hospital admissions continue to go down - talk of having both opening meaning we will lose control of new infections is not going to really bother people if there isn’t any corresponding increase in deaths.

I’m also a bit unsure as to what evidence there is that opening schools will push us over the edge in terms of controlling the number of infections. Children can - and are - playing together now already. They can meet up with their mates in a park or back yard, then go and visit their grandparents, then go and get a haircut, walk round Sainsburys without a mask on, visit their parents’ friends’ house with their parents etc. Schools should by now have suitable distancing and sanitisation measures in place so that the exposure for children isn’t really much more than what they’re exposed to already.

Chuck in as well that those most at risk of suffering from the economic impact are younger adults - many of whom are likely to have young kids. If the parents lose their jobs, they’re going to struggle to feed and look after the kids. So it’s not a simple education vs pubs argument. 

You’re right BB that we might not have the data right now but for me, unless there’s very clear data, and/or the deaths are starting to increase, then you can’t bring in measures which will start ruining people’s lives and the economy. 

My guess is that it will be a both or neither thing. Hospitality industry closes down at the same time as schools (unlikely unless drastic upshot in deaths), or both are open but controlled. Most likely, it will be controlled, localised increases in restrictions (affecting schools and adults).

When the furlough scheme ends / reduces further and the true extent of job losses is made clear as further redundancies are made, I think we’ll see, if anything, a bigger swing to protecting the economy and a move towards the vulnerable “self-shielding” to protect themselves and other more vulnerable people whilst others carry on as currently.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I doubt there will ever be a trade off. Pubs, restaurants, hotels etc closing isn’t just people missing out on a drink with their mates, it’s livelihoods lost. And if it’s ‘acceptable’ for kids to run around getting and spreading covid, why are young, healthy, very low risk adults going to stand for having their livelihoods taken away? 

Especially when deaths and hospital admissions continue to go down - talk of having both opening meaning we will lose control of new infections is not going to really bother people if there isn’t any corresponding increase in deaths.

I’m also a bit unsure as to what evidence there is that opening schools will push us over the edge in terms of controlling the number of infections. Children can - and are - playing together now already. They can meet up with their mates in a park or back yard, then go and visit their grandparents, then go and get a haircut, walk round Sainsburys without a mask on, visit their parents’ friends’ house with their parents etc. Schools should by now have suitable distancing and sanitisation measures in place so that the exposure for children isn’t really much more than what they’re exposed to already.

Chuck in as well that those most at risk of suffering from the economic impact are younger adults - many of whom are likely to have young kids. If the parents lose their jobs, they’re going to struggle to feed and look after the kids. So it’s not a simple education vs pubs argument. 

You’re right BB that we might not have the data right now but for me, unless there’s very clear data, and/or the deaths are starting to increase, then you can’t bring in measures which will start ruining people’s lives and the economy. 

My guess is that it will be a both or neither thing. Hospitality industry closes down at the same time as schools (unlikely unless drastic upshot in deaths), or both are open but controlled. Most likely, it will be controlled, localised increases in restrictions (affecting schools and adults).

When the furlough scheme ends / reduces further and the true extent of job losses is made clear as further redundancies are made, I think we’ll see, if anything, a bigger swing to protecting the economy and a move towards the vulnerable “self-shielding” to protect themselves and other more vulnerable people whilst others carry on as currently.

I hope you’re right Aggy. I was expecting to see a substantial rise in daily figures in the UK by now, with associated hospital admissions, thankfully we are not seeing it as yet. We must also be seeing an increased level of community immunity as time progresses, at some stage that will become significant. Fingers crossed.

Edited by Van wink

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Grassroots Football can return in September and possibly Rugby in October. There are no protocols only guidance, which is just not going to be adhered to. Imagine how many millions that entails? And after each match and midweek training etc

So I am completely at a loss why there is a debate about schools and hospitality. I see them as far easier to control than grassroots sport.

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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I hope you’re right Aggy. I was expecting to see a substantial rise in daily figures in the UK by now, with associated hospital admissions, thankfully we are not seeing it as yet. We must also be seeing an increased level of community immunity as time progresses, at some stage that will become significant. Fingers crossed.

I  oticed that the number of hospital admissions is on the links that ricardo provides. Has anyone spotted the trend on these? 178 on today's 

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Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Grassroots Football can return in September and possibly Rugby in October. There are no protocols only guidance, which is just not going to be adhered to. Imagine how many millions that entails? And after each match and midweek training etc

So I am completely at a loss why there is a debate about schools and hospitality. I see them as far easier to control than grassroots sport.

Grassroots clubs are already playing friendlies KG, and have been for a couple of weeks I think.I believe our local club had a grant from Norfolk FA to assist with Covid preparations. Also policies like showering and changing at home.

Edited by Van wink

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19 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I  oticed that the number of hospital admissions is on the links that ricardo provides. Has anyone spotted the trend on these? 178 on today's 

From the graph they appear to be flat or marginally down.

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15 minutes ago, Van wink said:

From the graph they appear to be flat or marginally down.

It's not 178 it's 128 and has steadily come down.

Those in hospital have come down from 30k to 930.

 

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2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It's not 178 it's 128 and has steadily come down.

Those in hospital have come down from 30k to 930.

 

It’s encouraging and the sooner we understand why the better it will be.

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Thanks to her brilliant running of the track and trace system, Dido Harding is to be promoted to run the new, improved PHE.🤨

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56 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Grassroots clubs are already playing friendlies KG, and have been for a couple of weeks I think.I believe our local club had a grant from Norfolk FA to assist with Covid preparations. Also policies like showering and changing at home.

Rugby players have to get showered at home but 30 guys can be on a pitch together rubbing faces?  And thats before refs and subs.

Can't help thinking that the shower bit might be window dressing

 

 

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Posted (edited)
22 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'd be interested to hear from aggy and ricardo on this.

We should be seeing the effect of Scottish schools opening soon i guess which could inform English policy but with proposed re openings happening soon we might not have too much to go on before decisions need to be taken.

My view is that if there is a trade off it must be in favour of schools and that we might not have the data to make an informed decision by the time one is due which means an instinctual approach is required.

That being said surely we know what level of spread is caused by school children by now!

 

 

I know you didn't say you would be interested to hear from me, but...................... 🙂

I get the feeling that there is a strong belief that a vaccine will be available from around November so it is a matter of trying to keep everything ticking over and the virus suppressed until then.

Once the vulnerable and the NHS workers are vaccinated, the Government will arrange to quickly and efficiently roll it out to the rest of the population 😉

No, seriously, once a vaccination programme is underway, the pressure comes off and things should improve on an almost daily basis. The key thing is that it will give people confidence to move forward again and maybe we can start to get back to "normality" - even given that the "new normality" might be slightly different.

Edited by Mark .Y.
Spelt normality wrong....twice !!

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2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

I know you didn't say you would be interested to hear from me, but...................... 🙂

I get the feeling that there is a strong belief that a vaccine will be available from around November so it is a matter of trying to keep everything ticking over and the virus suppressed until then.

Once the vulnerable and the NHS workers are vaccinated, the Government will arrange to quickly and efficiently roll it out to the rest of the population 😉

No, seriously, once a vaccination programme is underway, the pressure comes off and things should improve on an almost daily basis. The key thing is that it will give people confidence to move forward again and maybe we can start to get back to "normaility" - even given that the "new normaility" might be slightly different.

ha!  No disrespect intended.

I mentioned aggy and ricardo as they have in the past held opposite and strong views.  But that's not to say that I wasn't interested in yours!

The consensus appears to be that although the data is similar to that we saw in march there is no going back.  The dissenting view is YFs (and to a lesser extent VW) who advocates a very cautious approach. 

No right or wrong answers in this.

As a natural optimist who likes a a data led approach I think I probably agree with the consensus and have faith in our ability to get a working  vaccine where it needs to be before the end of the year....

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49 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

ha!  No disrespect intended.

I mentioned aggy and ricardo as they have in the past held opposite and strong views.  But that's not to say that I wasn't interested in yours!

The consensus appears to be that although the data is similar to that we saw in march there is no going back.  The dissenting view is YFs (and to a lesser extent VW) who advocates a very cautious approach. 

No right or wrong answers in this.

As a natural optimist who likes a a data led approach I think I probably agree with the consensus and have faith in our ability to get a working  vaccine where it needs to be before the end of the year....

Yes I'm cautious - any vaccine (of which I'm quite optimistic as to eventual effectiveness) is however unlikely to be available to the general public (and two doses) until say Christmas / January plus a roll out time. That's frankly too late to stop a resurgence of the virus this autumn and early winter as I believe we are already slowly witnessing with our 'relaxed' approach.

Hence, I'd rather be dammed for being too stringent than too weak (as per wobbly utterly useless Boris) - said the same to Ricardo well before the original lock down (should of been 2 weeks earlier - would of saved 90 % of the deaths and quicker out / less economic damage so was proved right even with hindsight) and was criticized for being a little too draconian / authoritarian! RWNJ is me.

So - if we wish to open the schools in 2 weeks (a must) then be prepared to act !

Take some leadership even if unpopular!

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Fair points YF.  

I suppose we might also argue that if we let it get out of hand in autumn it will render the spring lockdown pointless.

I guess NZ is in this position in an extreme form and in some ways have become a hostage to their early success.

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Fair points YF.  

I suppose we might also argue that if we let it get out of hand in autumn it will render the spring lockdown pointless.

I guess NZ is in this position in an extreme form and in some ways have become a hostage to their early success.

Yes - We mustn't undo what we have achieved already with complacency.

A political reality is however is that IF (and a big IF but looks likely as we stand) we get a major resurgence this autumn and the government is forced into a second total lockdown including schools  - politically that i think would be the end of the Johnson government as its position would then be totally untenable with the social and economic damage. Better a further smaller hit and pain now to the govt. than the executioners block later. 

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Germany 1689 cases yesterday, highest total since late April.

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

Germany 1689 cases yesterday, highest total since late April.

1089 here,  12 deaths.

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France 2200, Germany 1100

No real sign of an exponential pick up yet. Perhaps we are now seeing a steady low level transmission kept in check by local action.

Time will tell.

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It does seem that we have come through the worst. There will be cases and maybe even a second wave but the death rate will be nowhere near in comparison.

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