Corona Virus main thread

[The Real Buh 3,482]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

Of course he was because he is you!

...What?

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

Was it "Nurse... they're out of bed again...."

Dont feed the trolls.

[Bill 1,788]

we aim....some

being the devil in the detail

what was promised and is now being rowed back on was a lie

the rules were there, and still are but the UK chose not to implement them so why not tell us why that has been the position

why there has been no monitoring of who comes in and out of the country, why no need to register with the local police/authority

10 years when far from nothing being done the checks were scaled back - then to win votes, a pile of false promises

the UK doesn't need a hostile environment - it's needs a government who enforces the existing rules

[Barbe bleu 832]

7 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

...What?

You cant fool us billy.

[The Real Buh 3,482]

3 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

You cant fool us billy.

Oh, you’re one of those. Be careful pal, you’ll be banned just like your hero David Icke.

Remember, the reptilians are really to blame.

Edited May 5, 2020 by The Real Buh

[Indy 3,322]

4 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

Oh, you’re one of those. Be careful pal, you’ll be banned just like your hero David Icke.

Remember, the reptilians are really to blame.

Funny enough talking of reptilians, I caught V the series on forces TV last week! That’s so bad now but loved it when it first aired!

Edited May 5, 2020 by Indy

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

According to the ONS figures, the bit about us performing better than other countries.

I think just comparing death numbers like it's a game is a bit silly. 

A few people on here don't seem to realise that the UK population is 10 percent larger than Italy's also, and that we've got quite a way to go to match their deaths per 1 million population. 

[The Real Buh 3,482]

I think talk of statistical reliability probably goes out the window Since france announced they have cases from December.

 

How many Pneumonia deaths earlier in the year were covid? How long did China conceal this from us?

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

1 hour ago, sgncfc said:

The only statistic I'm interested in is the one that says more people have died here than in Italy. 

Our population is 6 million larger though, we're still a fair bit away from matching their deaths per 1 million capita which is the relevant figure? 

Also, there have been some doubts about Italy's figures. Until all countries fully report care home and at home deaths likely to be caused by coronavirus it's difficult to form an accurate picture.  Italy's believed to be under reported by a third. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten

[Herman 9,829]

I'm sorry but that is a bit of a cop out. Yes we have a bigger population but not that big. We had ample warning as sgncfc says, 2 weeks on Italy, plus the facts coming out of China. Also we are an island, we have control of our borders, no Schengen. We could have taken much better control over this but we didn't.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

I think talk of statistical reliability probably goes out the window Since france announced they have cases from December.

How many Pneumonia deaths earlier in the year were covid? How long did China conceal this from us?

I had an extremely odd feeling illness in early December which left me bedridden for 5 days and was unlike anything I'd experienced before but did include a fever and a degree of breathlessness. It definitely felt like a strange virus. 

I'm also addicted to Asian cuisine and visit a Chinese supermarket about three times a month for imported products and supplies for making sushi, and a bubble tea place a couple of times a month. Both teeming with Chinese, Vietnamese and Japanese students and staff. 

Did I have coronavirus in December? Who knows, but I wouldn't fully rule it out. Certainly felt tropical. 

[The Real Buh 3,482]

1 minute ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I had an extremely odd feeling illness in early December which left me bedridden for 5 days and was unlike anything I'd experienced before but did include a fever and a degree of breathlessness. It definitely felt like a strange virus. 

I'm also addicted to Asian cuisine and visit a Chinese supermarket about three times a month for imported products and supplies for making sushi, and a bubble tea place a couple of times a month. Both teeming with Chinese, Vietnamese and Japanese students and staff. 

Did I have coronavirus in December? Who knows, but I wouldn't fully rule it out. Certainly felt tropical. 

I never get ill but I had something in January that floored me. No energy, really unusual and it made its way round work. 
 

It probably wasn’t, but China knew about this for a long time and did nothing. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

I'm sorry but that is a bit of a cop out. Yes we have a bigger population but not that big. We had ample warning as sgncfc says, 2 weeks on Italy, plus the facts coming out of China. Also we are an island, we have control of our borders, no Schengen. We could have taken much better control over this but we didn't.

I do see where you are coming from, I did think it was a bit crazy that we were allowing flights in from Northern Italy when they were in lockdown. And not even checking temperatures. That for me is the thing which I can't excuse or rationalise. 

But... Coronavirus is going to be causing us big problems for a long time, and if we're going to be discussing death statistics like they are a scorecard then we may want to at least consider that were still in the first 20 minutes of the match and it looks like some of our competitors have used their first sub very early (lockdown easing). 

Proof will be in the pudding, who knows if Sweden end up making us all look a bit silly. 

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I do see where you are coming from, I did think it was a bit crazy that we were allowing flights in from Northern Italy when they were in lockdown. And not even checking temperatures. That for me is the thing which I can't excuse or rationalise. 

But... Coronavirus is going to be causing us big problems for a long time, and if we're going to be discussing death statistics like they are a scorecard then we may want to at least consider that were still in the first 20 minutes of the match and it looks like some of our competitors have used their first sub very early (lockdown easing). 

Proof will be in the pudding, who knows if Sweden end up making us all look a bit silly. 

The hospitals in Liverpool have a disproportionate number of cases, I wonder why, as do the hospitals in the Cheltenham area. Coincidence?

[Herman 9,829]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The hospitals in Liverpool have a disproportionate number of cases, I wonder why, as do the hospitals in the Cheltenham area. Coincidence?

What happened in South Wales? There is a large cluster of cases around the Cardiff area.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

5 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The hospitals in Liverpool have a disproportionate number of cases, I wonder why, as do the hospitals in the Cheltenham area. Coincidence?

I'd have thought that Cheltenham punters would have come from all over the UK and then gone back where they come from. 

And the North West is the most densely populated region outside Greater London. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten

[Barbe bleu 832]

SAGE papers now all published to end of march

All can now see if the government followed the advice or ignored it, or somewhere in between.

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The hospitals in Liverpool have a disproportionate number of cases, I wonder why, as do the hospitals in the Cheltenham area. Coincidence?

 

16 minutes ago, Herman said:

What happened in South Wales? There is a large cluster of cases around the Cardiff area.

 

15 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I'd have thought that Cheltenham punters would have come from all over the UK. 

And the North West is the most densely populated region outside Greater London. 

 

I think this was all discussed a few weeks ago. Certainly the number and warning of 'seed' cases dealt the Italians a poor hand.

We though - however you look at it should really of done better. 

 

I think the only true measurement will be excess deaths as a percentage of population or the 'z' scores. In the early days absolute was OK but as the numbers grew and individual cases merged then moving to a percentage of the population made some limited sense but of course there are still huge regional and demographic variations - Norwich is really quite safe, London bad etc.  

Edited May 5, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

13 minutes ago, Herman said:

What happened in South Wales? There is a large cluster of cases around the Cardiff area.

Do sheep get it?

[Ian 1,136]

39 minutes ago, Herman said:

I'm sorry but that is a bit of a cop out. Yes we have a bigger population but not that big. We had ample warning as sgncfc says, 2 weeks on Italy, plus the facts coming out of China. Also we are an island, we have control of our borders, no Schengen. We could have taken much better control over this but we didn't.

The certainty people have based on extremely sketchy and limited information boggles my mind.

I know critical thinking isn't high on the agenda these days, but the picture could change massively over the coming weeks and months as we actually get a better global picture of this pandemic. The rush to cast political judgement really sums up the populist nature of modern politics in the UK.

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Do sheep get it?

That's scrapie... 

[The Real Buh 3,482]

2 minutes ago, Ian said:

The certainty people have based on extremely sketchy and limited information boggles my mind.

I know critical thinking isn't high on the agenda these days, but the picture could change massively over the coming weeks and months as we actually get a better global picture of this pandemic. The rush to cast political judgement really sums up the populist nature of modern politics in the UK.

We live in a post-truth age. I remain hopeful this attitude can be killed along with the virus.

[Van wink 2,994]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

That's scrapie... 

Bit like BSE. 
Our departed expert got that one wrong as well.

[Van wink 2,994]

30 minutes ago, Herman said:

What happened in South Wales? There is a large cluster of cases around the Cardiff area.

Two stereophonics concerts, which I guess is rather apt. 

[Bill 1,788]

32 minutes ago, Herman said:

What happened in South Wales? There is a large cluster of cases around the Cardiff area.

perhaps in it not just bats and pigs that this virus can jump from

sheep might have to be added to the list 😆

 

[Barbe bleu 832]

26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

 

 

I think this was all discussed a few weeks ago. Certainly the number and warning of 'seed' cases dealt the Italians a poor hand.

We though - however you look at it should really of done better. 

 

I think the only true measurement will be excess deaths as a percentage of population or the 'z' scores. In the early days absolute was OK but as the numbers grew and individual cases merged then moving to a percentage of the population made some limited sense but of course there are still huge regional and demographic variations - Norwich is really quite safe, London bad etc.  

Yea you are probably right that the only true measurement will come when we count the bodies as best we can on th other side of a vaccination programme.  All else is as meaningful or pointless as the score at half time.

 

Let's hope we can do so the grim.count this year.

 

(I'm still not convinced that the z score can be used to compare nations)

[Herman 9,829]

12 minutes ago, Ian said:

The certainty people have based on extremely sketchy and limited information boggles my mind.

I know critical thinking isn't high on the agenda these days, but the picture could change massively over the coming weeks and months as we actually get a better global picture of this pandemic. The rush to cast political judgement really sums up the populist nature of modern politics in the UK.

They're just simple facts. We would have got it no doubt. But if some sense of preparation had occured the country could have mitigated the extent of the disaster.

[Yellow Fever 3,839]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yea you are probably right that the only true measurement will come when we count the bodies as best we can on th other side of a vaccination programme.  All else is as meaningful or pointless as the score at half time.

 

Let's hope we can do so the grim.count this year.

 

(I'm still not convinced that the z score can be used to compare nations)

Tbe issue is you just can't compare excess death means as a base line without factoring in some knowledge as to how that varies year by year. That's what the sd does of the means - allows some confidence limits to be applied.

[Bill 1,788]

17 minutes ago, Ian said:

The certainty people have based on extremely sketchy and limited information boggles my mind.

I know critical thinking isn't high on the agenda these days, but the picture could change massively over the coming weeks and months as we actually get a better global picture of this pandemic. The rush to cast political judgement really sums up the populist nature of modern politics in the UK.

nonsense

it is those desperate to defend their better which is what stands out

it is not 'political judgement' to point out that ignoring warnings from Exercise Cygnus, warnings of shortages last summer, cutting NHS staff, having a buffoon tell the country that it was ok to shake hands, failing to heed the advice elsewhere and not lock down

much of which are now being slowly and grudgingly admitted as mistakes. or failure as the rest of us know

so stop trying to make out the fault lies with those pointing out these failings

[Ian 1,136]

7 minutes ago, Herman said:

They're just simple facts. We would have got it no doubt. But if some sense of preparation had occured the country could have mitigated the extent of the disaster.

Simple facts? Like the "facts out of China" you referred to, that showed there was very low risk of human transmission you mean?