sonyc 5,541 Posted September 28, 2020 (edited) Look what I shared: COVID Symptom Study https://covid.joinzoe.com/data Latest @Aggy Edited September 28, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 762 Posted September 28, 2020 2 minutes ago, sonyc said: Do you use the app @Aggy ? I'm not sure if this answers your question (because I'm unable to find more on the differentiation of symptoms between Covid and non-C, except that one reports test results and these are collated) ....This is what is noted as at the end of the 25th:  Prevalence figures The latest prevalence figures estimate that 147,498 people currently have symptomatic COVID in the UK, this figure has more than doubled since last week (69,686), for the second week in a row.  Thanks - interesting re prevalence figures in light of the link in my other post just now as well. I’d like to see the full methodology out of interest as much as anything. i have still got the app on my phone and did use it for two or three weeks but have to say I stopped after a while - didn’t have any symptoms and to be honest forgot I’d got it downloaded. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted September 29, 2020 A definite uptick in positives (198k tests 3.5% positives) highest so far. An expected levelling up after incomplete weekend reporting 7143 - 71 Inpatients 2049 up 322 since last report friday  https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy  1494 - 16 France 4070 - 81 possibly weekend effect Spain 2425 - 59 and also previous day 5321 - 60 Germany 2280 - 11   1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,164 Posted September 29, 2020 Thanks. Helpful to see we're below the graph for the worst-case increase, but definitely this level of new infections and the increase in inpatients is enough to be worrying. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tetteys Jig 830 Posted September 29, 2020 https://covid-analysis.com/country/United Kingdom here's an interesting take on predictions... lockdown by mid November and peaking at the end of November at around 800 deaths a day... see how that gets on... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 29, 2020 1 hour ago, ricardo said: A definite uptick in positives (198k tests 3.5% positives) highest so far. An expected levelling up after incomplete weekend reporting 7143 - 71 Inpatients 2049 up 322 since last report friday  https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy  1494 - 16 France 4070 - 81 possibly weekend effect Spain 2425 - 59 and also previous day 5321 - 60 Germany 2280 - 11   Very much as expected Ricardo, significant North South divide at play. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted September 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said: https://covid-analysis.com/country/United Kingdom here's an interesting take on predictions... lockdown by mid November and peaking at the end of November at around 800 deaths a day... see how that gets on... I can't see that happening if we heed the warnings. Are some predictions. meant to persuade the gormless or would they even bother listening. Or will there be a new acceptable level of death as long as the NHS isn't overwhelmed. We cannot have too many more months of none or little treatment for the rest of illnesses and diseases 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted September 29, 2020 Hospital admissions have fallen for four consecutive days. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,541 Posted September 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Van wink said: Very much as expected Ricardo, significant North South divide at play. https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map And the divide looks to worsen. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted September 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, ricardo said: Hospital admissions have fallen for four consecutive days. Fascinating isn’t it. Still principally infections amongst the young, I suspect hospital data is lagging. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted September 29, 2020 What this entire thread tells us is .... just follow the data. From the data you can make policy. It's very simple. Ignore the data (for whatever reason) and you quickly get yourself in a mess.  Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,164 Posted September 29, 2020 1 hour ago, ricardo said: This is hopeful news, I was working on the 322 increase number for inpatients since the last report on Friday. I think hospital numbers are the one really solid number to show the disease is getting worse, and to have a reduction in the level of admissions and a reduction in the total number of inpatients are both good news.  One interesting thing I heard today from a friend who is convinced he had Covid in December, when he had a really unpleasant virus with a fever, cough, and swollen hands (which apparently is pretty common). At the time he just thought it was a seasonal virus and although he took time off work and felt generally rubbish for a few weeks, it wasn't bad enough to go to the doctors. Anyway, he's now had the antibody test, which came back showing he has had Covid at some point. He's not been ill at all since then so he's now doubly convinced he had it in December. No way to be sure of course but there you are. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 832 Posted September 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Surfer said: What this entire thread tells us is .... just follow the data. From the data you can make policy. It's very simple. Ignore the data (for whatever reason) and you quickly get yourself in a mess.  Data currently says that the second wave has been deflected without a mass lockdown, schools open and pubs serving after 10pm Not sure I'm quite this hopeful but if we follow the data it shows we had got things about right. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 832 Posted September 29, 2020 2 hours ago, It's Character Forming said: This is hopeful news, I was working on the 322 increase number for inpatients since the last report on Friday. I think hospital numbers are the one really solid number to show the disease is getting worse, and to have a reduction in the level of admissions and a reduction in the total number of inpatients are both good news.  One interesting thing I heard today from a friend who is convinced he had Covid in December, when he had a really unpleasant virus with a fever, cough, and swollen hands (which apparently is pretty common). At the time he just thought it was a seasonal virus and although he took time off work and felt generally rubbish for a few weeks, it wasn't bad enough to go to the doctors. Anyway, he's now had the antibody test, which came back showing he has had Covid at some point. He's not been ill at all since then so he's now doubly convinced he had it in December. No way to be sure of course but there you are. be really interesting to know just when we first got it. I have a suspicion that it was lurking quite a bit before the march explosion but we couldn't tell it apart from flu. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,818 Posted September 29, 2020 Just now, Barbe bleu said: be really interesting to know just when we first got it. I have a suspicion that it was lurking quite a bit before the march explosion but we couldn't tell it apart from flu. Candidly thats probably true in China as well. It didn't start in Wuhan .. that just where it first most likely met modern medicine and was noticed in a large city. Started November or earlier in SE China or neighbouring states. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jools 584 Posted September 29, 2020 Vote Labour, get Covid: For the less learned among us the map on the left is how England & Wales voted in the last GE and the map on the right displays the Covid hotspots within England & Wales. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted September 30, 2020 Oh look - London. Rather blows up your BS argument doesn’t it? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,819 Posted September 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Surfer said: Oh look - London. Rather blows up your BS argument doesn’t it? If Jools had bothered to look at the recent maps that had been put up he'd see that it isn't just Labour voting areas. A lot of now Conservative areas are heavily infected. Maybe there are other reasons at play other than voting intentions. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted September 30, 2020 Lets not be silly. Large conurbations with people living in close contact are obviously areas where contagion is more likely. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 762 Posted September 30, 2020 13 hours ago, keelansgrandad said: We cannot have too many more months of none or little treatment for the rest of illnesses and diseases A couple of papers leading today with the story that approx. 1 mil breast cancer screenings could have been missed as a result of lockdown. Follows reports as early as June 1st that even by that point, referrals by GPs to hospitals of patients with cancer symptoms had dropped 75 per cent, nearly 9000 people had been unable to receive chemo or radiotherapy who normally would have done, and almost 13,000 fewer operations to remove tumours had been carried out. And that was only for the 2.5 months from lockdown in early/mid March to 1st June.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54351262https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52876999 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,541 Posted September 30, 2020 52 minutes ago, Aggy said: A couple of papers leading today with the story that approx. 1 mil breast cancer screenings could have been missed as a result of lockdown. Follows reports as early as June 1st that even by that point, referrals by GPs to hospitals of patients with cancer symptoms had dropped 75 per cent, nearly 9000 people had been unable to receive chemo or radiotherapy who normally would have done, and almost 13,000 fewer operations to remove tumours had been carried out. And that was only for the 2.5 months from lockdown in early/mid March to 1st June.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54351262https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52876999 I believe this will be one of the biggest stories in maybe a year or two years once this pandemic has passed (hopefully of course). The NHS was already underfunded after years and years of decline (on yesterday's news we learned that the UK has one of the lowest ratios of nurses per patient), exacerbated by the Osborne austerity era. Being able to treat future cancer patients, as well as other serious circulatory conditions, will be a huge challenge. There is s time bomb in the system and the PMs pledge for a few more hospitals and his pledge for more more nursing staff won't be available in time either. Many staff left too, squeezed out by under punitive Brexit policies.   Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,541 Posted September 30, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, Jools said: Vote Labour, get Covid: For the less learned among us the map on the left is how England & Wales voted in the last GE and the map on the right displays the Covid hotspots within England & Wales. There are hundreds of correlations one could make between things. Things that are not causal though. There are other factors such as income inequality, housing density, the built environment etc etc. But that would be far too complex to consider. Why not just voting patterns? And if you were to look at those two maps in reality they do not overlay exactly. There are huge variations and indeed a granular study may reveal the claim is not even valid! But...I think rather than reply in any further material way to this post we should all just take a minute's silence to reflect on what this poster is really saying underneath his headline words.  Edited September 30, 2020 by sonyc 4 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 832 Posted September 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Aggy said: A couple of papers leading today with the story that approx. 1 mil breast cancer screenings could have been missed as a result of lockdown. Follows reports as early as June 1st that even by that point, referrals by GPs to hospitals of patients with cancer symptoms had dropped 75 per cent, nearly 9000 people had been unable to receive chemo or radiotherapy who normally would have done, and almost 13,000 fewer operations to remove tumours had been carried out. And that was only for the 2.5 months from lockdown in early/mid March to 1st June.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54351262https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52876999 Its a fair point and one that lots of others have  made. I am not a supporter of a second full lockdown but I dont think the psychology would be the same second time around and I dont think people would be put off in the same way they clearly were. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted September 30, 2020 Why does Jools have to politicise it every time. I give Boris plenty of stick but because of his incompetence not his leadership of the Conservative party. Starmer is doing very little either to help the situation but he is in opposition. Jools is very quick to deflect it away from his subliminal racist undertones. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted September 30, 2020 Scotland seems to have lost control several weeks ago. Sharp decline in testing and big increase in positives. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,396 Posted September 30, 2020 Testing appears to be slowing everywhere. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted September 30, 2020 Yes noticed that decline in testing too. Would be good to know why that is? A reagent shortage? Other countries scarfing up a finite global resources? A politically driven decision? We have similar situation in US - In some states testing levels are rapidly declining, while others are able to maintain a high test level - why?   Share this post Link to post Share on other sites