The Positive Brexit Thread

[Barbe bleu 832]

1 hour ago, canarydan23 said:

Those certainly are words.

You appear to be desperate for the last word  but cannot think of anything intelligent or original to say. It's OK because as you get  a bit older and gey a bit more life experience you'll come to realise this.

Your joke suggested that you considered that there was something 'wrong' with sleeping with trans women.  It's the same prejudice that you accuse the RTB of holding.

Rather than give it the playground  bully stuff why not tell the rest of the class why I am wrong to make that judgement of you or discuss the topic more generally.

 

Edited June 18, 2023 by Barbe bleu

[dylanisabaddog 4,968]

18 hours ago, Hook's-Walk-Canary said:

 As the US is the UK’s biggest export market (Not the EU) 

Errr

 

USA £64bn

EU £349bn

 

[Herman 9,817]

5 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Errr

 

USA £64bn

EU £349bn

 

Facts schmacts!😉

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

You appear to be desperate for the last word  but cannot think of anything intelligent or original to say. It's OK because as you get  a bit older and gey a bit more life experience you'll come to realise this.

Your joke suggested that you considered that there was something 'wrong' with sleeping with trans women.  It's the same prejudice that you accuse the RTB of holding.

Rather than give it the playground  bully stuff why not tell the rest of the class why I am wrong to make that judgement of you or discuss the topic more generally.

 

I didn't get that impression. Mine was that he was asking RTB if he had experience of happy endings with trans women. Sleeping with them was inferred by you.

[canarydan23 4,060]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

You appear to be desperate for the last word  but cannot think of anything intelligent or original to say. It's OK because as you get  a bit older and gey a bit more life experience you'll come to realise this.

Your joke suggested that you considered that there was something 'wrong' with sleeping with trans women.  It's the same prejudice that you accuse the RTB of holding.

Rather than give it the playground  bully stuff why not tell the rest of the class why I am wrong to make that judgement of you or discuss the topic more generally.

 

To be honest, it wasn't all that clear what judgement you were making of me. It appeared to me that you though because I mocked RTB with a suggestion that he likes happy endings of trans women then I must be prejudice against trans women. I deliberately didn't assume that was the conclusion you'd reached; after all, you've got all that life experience, why would you come to such an illogical and, to be frank, pretty stupid judgement? Sadly, as your post above confirms, I was guilty of giving you too much credit.

As you've said yourself, RTB is quite open and honest with his prejudices. He hates trans women (among other demographics). The best way to deal with these types of people is to use their prejudices as something with which to mock them. Dealing with a homophobic racist? Make a joke about him get railed by a big black man. It doesn't in anyway suggest that the person mocking shares that prejudice, quite the opposite, in fact. I'm genuinely struggling to empathise with the logical route one would have to take to arrive at the conclusion you did. Hence my reply to you that mocked the lack of sense in your post. With all your years on this planet, you should feel somewhat ashamed that a millennial is having to explain this to you.

As for the topic more generally, I suspect the trans debate is one of the rare topics that RTB and I have some common ground. I suspect we differ in the fact that I have no problem whatsoever with people dressing however they like; men in dresses or short skirts coated in lipstick and makeup don't make me feel uneasy or like I should cross the road to avoid them, just like I don't have a problem with butch women with skinheads or muscles like Eddie Hall. More power to them if that's what they want to do, it's a pretty courageous thing when you think about, going out in public displaying a very overt **** you to societal norms. But when it comes to their role within society, it is my belief that for trans women in particular, until they have spent a considerable time (I believe the two years suggested by the current legislation is reasonable) in their assumed gender, convinced a medical professional that they genuinely suffer from gender dysphoria and have subsequently undergone realignment surgery, then they should be treated in accordance with their sex. Which means trans women cannot/should not play in women's sports or use female-only facilities (ie, changing rooms, rape crisis centres, toilets, etc). There's no prejudice there.

[BigFish 1,988]

On 17/06/2023 at 17:46, Hook's-Walk-Canary said:

If you Rejoiniacs had your way we would already be in the Eurozone and the UK would be forced to become part of it if the UK were to rejoin the EU -- Either way we'd currently be in recession, but we're not - The Eurozone is contracting and its biggest economy, Germany, is in recession -- The UK's economy is predicted to outperform Germany's this year.

Britain is doing deals with the fastest-growing economies in the world - The CPTPP is where it's at - a a massive trading bloc stretching from Canada to Japan to Australia - It comprises 580m consumers (far more than the EU) and has a combined GDP of £11 trillion - Crucially it contains countries which are growing several times faster than the EU -- In addition the UK has been signing deals with individual US states - As the US is the UK’s biggest export market (Not the EU) this should very soon start to pay dividends. 

Rejoining the EU would mean none of this would be possible.

As you may or may not know, or choose to ignore, international trade is the ‘sole competence’ of the EU Commission - EU member countries are not permitted to have any trade discussions internationally -- Instead they have to wait for the snail-like work of the Commission, which takes an average of well over 10 years to agree trade deals – if indeed it agrees them at all.

The members of the CPTPP are a long way away and proximity matters in terms of Trade. Perhaps this explains why the deal is worth virtually nothing in terms of increased Trade. The US is moving away from globalization, Japan hasn't grown in decades and we already have trade deals with many of these states. This is fiddling while Rome, or rather the UK's trade position, burns. The rules of trade will be set by the big blocs, whether the US, the EU or the BRICS. Nothing you can produce compensates for the fact the UK is now a rule taker, rather than a rule maker. The UK is very much a second order power since the Brexit vote, and this becomes more obvious by the day.

[PurpleCanary 5,578]

22 minutes ago, BigFish said:

The members of the CPTPP are a long way away and proximity matters in terms of Trade. Perhaps this explains why the deal is worth virtually nothing in terms of increased Trade. The US is moving away from globalization, Japan hasn't grown in decades and we already have trade deals with many of these states. This is fiddling while Rome, or rather the UK's trade position, burns. The rules of trade will be set by the big blocs, whether the US, the EU or the BRICS. Nothing you can produce compensates for the fact the UK is now a rule taker, rather than a rule maker. The UK is very much a second order power since the Brexit vote, and this becomes more obvious by the day.

Alan Beattie, the FT's trade expert, did a piece back in March in essence saying the economic benefits for the UK of joining the CPTPP would be microscopic. About 0.08 per cent of GDP. And that as much as anything the motivation for the government was that membership would make it harder to reverse Brexit.

"The UK’s negotiators have come a long way. But it’s been a rough ride, and right from the beginning the whole political drive for Britain joining was always more about spin and taking a poison pill against rejoining the EU than it was about substance.

"UK trade minister Greg Hands said the quiet part out loud recently when he crowed that joining CPTPP would make it harder for a future Labour government to re-enter the EU customs union. It’s not an edifying statement."

[PurpleCanary 5,578]

42 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Alan Beattie, the FT's trade expert, did a piece back in March in essence saying the economic benefits for the UK of joining the CPTPP would be microscopic. About 0.08 per cent of GDP. And that as much as anything the motivation for the government was that membership would make it harder to reverse Brexit.

"The UK’s negotiators have come a long way. But it’s been a rough ride, and right from the beginning the whole political drive for Britain joining was always more about spin and taking a poison pill against rejoining the EU than it was about substance.

"UK trade minister Greg Hands said the quiet part out loud recently when he crowed that joining CPTPP would make it harder for a future Labour government to re-enter the EU customs union. It’s not an edifying statement."

Just to emphasise what a cynically destructive stratagem this is. Not satisfied with inflicting on the UK (apart from Northern Ireland) the most economically damaging Brexit possible, this cruel shambles of a government has joined a trade group not really because it will help the economy, since the benefits will be tiny, but specifically because it will make it harder to reduce the catastrophic effects of its very own Brexit.

And this is a party that still manages to fool many voters into believing it is better able than Labour to handle the economy. All in all it is a mad looking-glass world.

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

34 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Just to emphasise what a cynically destructive stratagem this is. Not satisfied with inflicting on the UK (apart from Northern Ireland) the most economically damaging Brexit possible, this cruel shambles of a government has joined a trade group not really because it will help the economy, since the benefits will be tiny, but specifically because it will make it harder to reduce the catastrophic effects of its very own Brexit.

And this is a party that still manages to fool many voters into believing it is better able than Labour to handle the economy. All in all it is a mad looking-glass world.

 

1 hour ago, BigFish said:

The members of the CPTPP are a long way away and proximity matters in terms of Trade. Perhaps this explains why the deal is worth virtually nothing in terms of increased Trade. The US is moving away from globalization, Japan hasn't grown in decades and we already have trade deals with many of these states. This is fiddling while Rome, or rather the UK's trade position, burns. The rules of trade will be set by the big blocs, whether the US, the EU or the BRICS. Nothing you can produce compensates for the fact the UK is now a rule taker, rather than a rule maker. The UK is very much a second order power since the Brexit vote, and this becomes more obvious by the day.

Yes - It seems both of you have taken up this battle.

I've given arguing with the likes of Jool's. Lights on nobody home. As I've said if they and their ilk just accepted the widely acknowledged fact (hint the markets, interest rates, inflation, exports etc. - no need to be an expert now) of the  economic damage they've inflicted on this country then at least they'd have a bit more respect and we'd all be able to have a more honest appraisal of how we make things better from here - instead of the endless mindless ideology. As it happens the tide has clearly turned on them already. Hard nosed reality and sanity returning to a very misled and now wiser electorate.

No, they dig ever deeper and deeper un-shored holes until it all collapses on them. Australia straight on down!

Edited June 19, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[PurpleCanary 5,578]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Yes - It seems both of you have taken up this battle.

I've given arguing with the likes of Jool's. Lights on nobody home. As I've said if they and their ilk just accepted the widely acknowledged fact (hint the markets, interest rates, inflation, exports etc. - no need to be an expert now) of the  economic damage they've inflicted on this country then at least they'd have a bit more respect and we'd all be able to have a more honest appraisal of how we make things better from here - instead of the endless mindless ideology. As it happens the tide has clearly turned on them already. Hard nosed reality and sanity returning to a very misled and now wiser electorate.

No, they dig ever deeper and deeper un-shored holes until it all collapses on them. Australia straight on down!

I tend to limit my contributions, and keep them factual. In this case I was simply providing an expert's corrective to some overly optimistic assessments that have been posted here of the benefits to the UK of membership of the CPTPP.

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

16 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

I tend to limit my contributions, and keep them factual. In this case I was simply providing an expert's corrective to some overly optimistic assessments that have been posted here of the benefits to the UK of membership of the CPTPP.

This is exactly the point I've been making on here for months on CPTPP. Mainly political. It's almost as if Jools' hasn't been keeping up with the discussion!

[littleyellowbirdie 2,574]

CPTPP's minimally political, focusing primarily on trade in goods and services; the EU is mainly political.

Biggest significance of CPTPP is that will encourage more complicated supply chains between the members in a manner similar to the EU due to cumulation of rules of origin.

The BBC has started another series of Brexit: A Guide for the perplexed. It's the first series post-Brexit; the interview with the London chocolatier was interesting. It started off fairly predictably bemoaning the fact that it was more complicated to export to France than Australia, but it went on to reveal that they'd grown their business beyond what it was pre-brexit through development of business outside the EU.

All the assumptions about the UK post-Brexit are based on the world being static from 2020 onwards, but it's not. Asia-Pacific economies are growing, with an ever-growing middle class consuming ever more goods and services.

Good article in the FT about how Europe (including the UK) is falling behind the US. Europe does need to reach out to a wider range of middle powers spread around the globe to encourage more cooperation and promote the power of middle powers if domination of superpowers like the US and China isn't to get too out of hand.

https://www.ft.com/content/80ace07f-3acb-40cb-9960-8bb4a44fd8d9

Edited June 20, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[dylanisabaddog 4,968]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

CPTPP's minimally political, focusing primarily on trade in goods and services; the EU is mainly political.

Really? 

Of course the EU is political but the overriding reason for membership is economic. 

If people wish to avoid the political consequences of membership that's fine but they need to be open and honest about the quite obvious financial and economic consequences arising from not having a free trade deal with 450 million people on our doorstep. It's a question of how much you are prepared to pay for your political freedom, or perhaps more importantly, how much you are happy for your children and grandchildren to pay. A 20 year old is going to spend their whole working life paying for this. 

Please don't tell me that the financial loss of free trade with Europe can be mitigated by anything more than a marginal amount by trade deals with countries on the other side of the world. That's just silly. Even Rees-Mogg admitted that it was a 50 year economic project. 

Edited June 21, 2023 by dylanisabaddog

[duke63 545]

Want to be poor? Then vote Tory. Inflation remains at 8.7% meaning another interest rate rise, possibly of 0.5%.

House prices are going to come crashing down.

 

And meanwhile!

 

UK debt exceeds 100% of GDP for first time since 1961 - ONS

The UK's debt pile reached more than 100% of economic output for the first time since 1961 as government borrowing more than doubled in May, official figures show.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) says net debt reached £2.6 trillion as of the end of May, estimated at 100.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).

Government borrowing soared to £20 billion in May, pushed higher by the cost of energy support schemes. May's borrowing figure was £10.7 billion higher than a year ago and the second-highest May borrowing since monthly records began in 1993.

Economists had predicted borrowing of £19.5 billion for May.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,574]

4 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Really? 

Of course the EU is political but the overriding reason for membership is economic. 

If people wish to avoid the political consequences of membership that's fine but they need to be open and honest about the quite obvious financial and economic consequences arising from not having a free trade deal with 450 million people on our doorstep. It's a question of how much you are prepared to pay for your political freedom, or perhaps more importantly, how much you are happy for your children and grandchildren to pay. A 20 year old is going to spend their whole working life paying for this. 

Please don't tell me that the financial loss of free trade with Europe can be mitigated by anything more than a marginal amount by trade deals with countries on the other side of the world. That's just silly. Even Rees-Mogg admitted that it was a 50 year economic project. 

Yes, absolutely. there's a huge economic element to it, but there's also a huge political element. In contrast, CPTPP has very little in the way of political character in its own right, even if there were clear geopolitical motives for creating it in the first place.

You might be amused to learn that my elderly handicapped father won a portable mobility scooter in a UK auction a couple of days back. Guess who's currently battling through the questions of how to deal with the CN23? 😂 As my brother pointed out, they probably do have portable mobility scooters in France...

I don't think weighing up the profits/losses of having left the EU is as clear cut or predictable as is made out. We don't have access to parallel universes where we stayed in the EU for proper comparison; we just have the best analyses of economists who struggle to predict recessions from quarter to quarter. The OBR says 0.008% growth from CPTPP membership. Amazing they can talk predictions to 4DP with a straight face.

CPTPP's members want it to succeed and want it to grow for their mutual benefit. Japan in particular is going to be falling over itself to make sure the first new member since admission is seen to benefit from it as an advert for other prospective members, likely not least in helping to mend bridges with the EU as they did with the Windsor framework.

On a more trivial note than trade, we have Nunez and Sara as a direct result of the club moving to adapt to leaving the EU. Who knows what players we've missed out signing from Europe, but we are also gaining things from the change in focus that we'd likely not have seen.

There's a lot of pressure from both sides for the EU and UK to rebuild a working relationship and relieve the new frictions regarding trade. I've no doubt that will improve.

Regarding trade agreements, Johnson was focussed on quantity rather than quality. It's interesting to note that Sunak didn't give Canada the same concessions on hormone-treated meat that Australia and New Zealand enjoyed.

Sunak's big challenge is an India FTA, which is a difficult nut to crack. If he does crack that one though then it will be a game-changer economically and politically. If Sunak delivers that before the next election then that could well alter the maths of the next election, and India loves the fact we have a PM with an Indian heritage... enough to give him a bit of a boost before the next election? We'll probably know in the next year. Mohdi's also up for reelection in 2024, but no idea how it would factor for him.

Back to the EU, and I'm sure that the fact Johnson has been summarily destroyed will have filled the commission with glee and made them much more disposed to rebuilding our relationship post-Brexit.

Do have a listen to the guide for the perplexed as it's really interesting.

Edited June 21, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[dylanisabaddog 4,968]

4 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

 

Do have a listen to the guide for the perplexed as it's really interesting.

The only things that perplex me are 

-excitement over a trade deal that. adds next to nothing to our GDP

-claiming that buying Nunez and Sara is an advantage of Brexit. Yippee Dee. We could have signed them pre Brexit and frankly it isn't going to pay my daughter's mortgage. 

-ignoring the fact that the EU is also negotiating a trade deal with India (I wonder who'll come out of that best, the EU has negotiated over 100 trade deals in 40 years. We've managed one and it didn't go well. We have 65m people, the EU has 450m)

-thinking that an Indian trade deal will alter the outcome of the next election. Sorry to have to tell you but the hundreds of thousands of people who are at risk of losing their homes due to increases in tax and spiralling interest rates have already decided who to vote for. The one thing in common that those people have is that they vote. 

-thinking that the economic outcome of leaving the EU is not clear cut. I've had to repeat this numerous times during this thread but the simple fact is that giving up a free trade deal with 450m people on your doorstep cannot possibly have any positive economic consequences. It certainly isn't going to be made up by deals with people who are so far away they're in bed when we're at work.

The really huge singular cost of leaving the EU is that in the lead up to Brexit day our financial institutions transferred £2 trillion to their European subsidiaries because they were no longer able to lend in Euros. The profits and tax loss as a result are absolutely enormous. The important part of that is tax, we have to try to replace it but it's impossible. The problem is that however much people dislike our bankers they pay for the rest of us. We currently have the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. If you strip finance out of everybody's figures we're about 15th. Love them or hate them that's how much we need them. They're not bothered of course, the profit and tax just moves elsewhere in the world and they probably lose 1% or 2% on CT.  What does bother them is that the EU anti corruption legislation means they have to pay the correct amount. 

Incidentally, one of the reasons that world trade organisations regularly get our economy wrong is because it is so imbalanced that it doesn't fit their parameters. They really should have learned by now. 

Ironically, one of the other reasons we're selling more than expected and enjoying greater inward investment than predicted is that no one thought that Truss would destroy the value of our currency. We're now cheap. 

Edited June 21, 2023 by dylanisabaddog

[littleyellowbirdie 2,574]

5 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

The only things that perplex me are 

-excitement over a trade deal that. adds next to nothing to our GDP

-claiming that buying Nunez and Sara is an advantage of Brexit. Yippee Dee. We could have signed them pre Brexit and frankly it isn't going to pay my daughter's mortgage. 

-ignoring the fact that the EU is also negotiating a trade deal with India (I wonder who'll come out of that best, the EU has negotiated over 100 trade deals in 40 years. We've managed one and it didn't go well. We have 65m people, the EU has 450m)

-thinking that an Indian trade deal will alter the outcome of the next election. Sorry to have to tell you but the hundreds of thousands of people who are at risk of losing their homes due to increases in tax and spiralling interest rates have already decided who to vote for. The one thing in common that those people have is that they vote. 

-thinking that the economic outcome of leaving the EU is not clear cut. I've had to repeat this numerous times during this thread but the simple fact is that giving up a free trade deal with 450m people on your doorstep cannot possibly have any positive economic consequences. It certainly isn't going to be made up by deals with people who are so far away they're in bed when we're at work.

The really huge singular cost of leaving the EU is that in the lead up to Brexit day our financial institutions transferred £2 trillion to their European subsidiaries because they were no longer able to lend in Euros. The profits and tax loss as a result are absolutely enormous. The important part of that is tax, we have to try to replace it but it's impossible. The problem is that however much people dislike our bankers they pay for the rest of us. We currently have the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world. If you strip finance out of everybody's figures we're about 15th. Love them or hate them that's how much we need them. They're not bothered of course, the profit and tax just moves elsewhere in the world and they probably lose 1% or 2% on CT.  What does bother them is that the EU anti corruption legislation means they have to pay the correct amount. 

Incidentally, one of the reasons that world trade organisations regularly get our economy wrong is because it is so imbalanced that it doesn't fit their parameters. They really should have learned by now. 

Ironically, one of the other reasons we're selling more than expected and enjoying greater inward investment than predicted is that no one thought that Truss would destroy the value of our currency. We're now cheap. 

1. Didn't say that.

2. I've repeated this point many times: We have left the EU. We are no longer in the single market. In the unlikely event we rejoin it will be at least a decade and likely more. The question you need to ask yourself is are you just going to go on and on recycling the referendum arguments ad infinitum or get on with life?

3. That in itself says something: It didn't take much of a hit for speculators to decide the UK was being undersold and start putting money in. That in itself underlines the extent to which the importance of Brexit was grossly exagerrated when people were talking about going off a cliff if we left the EU.

Final point: Re your daughters mortgage, what income multipliers did she go in on? Eight times? Nine times? Seeing as nobody wants house prices to collapse, maybe some inflation to bring down those income multipliers in the long run might not be such a bad thing.

As I keep saying and gets glossed over, we obviously could do with improving our trade relationship with the EU. Some of the things the EU is refusing to recognise are absurd. The eel example was a great one: Eels can't be exported because they don't recognise the conservation bodies that certificate the eels sold as having been caught within quotas of sustainability, even though they're the exactly the same bodies we had when in the EU and legislation has barely changed.

Businesses like that chocolate business are pivoting away from the EU for their own survival. Inevitably, it does hurt the EU as well as us for our trade relationship to deteriorate. They know this, as indicated by the pragmatism over the Windsor framework. Our trade relationshp with the EU will improve, but even if it doesn't, in the long run, I think all of these predictions of 4.5% are going to prove to be wild exagerrations, much like talk of cliff edges was.

 

Edited June 21, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

I thought people would enjoy (or not) reading this.

Tic - Tok it seems

Its by Peter Kellner ex You Gov boss.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/anti-brexit-britain-has-reached-the-point-of-return/

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

On 21/06/2023 at 18:46, littleyellowbirdie said:

1. Didn't say that.

2. I've repeated this point many times: We have left the EU. We are no longer in the single market. In the unlikely event we rejoin it will be at least a decade and likely more. The question you need to ask yourself is are you just going to go on and on recycling the referendum arguments ad infinitum or get on with life?

3. That in itself says something: It didn't take much of a hit for speculators to decide the UK was being undersold and start putting money in. That in itself underlines the extent to which the importance of Brexit was grossly exagerrated when people were talking about going off a cliff if we left the EU.

Final point: Re your daughters mortgage, what income multipliers did she go in on? Eight times? Nine times? Seeing as nobody wants house prices to collapse, maybe some inflation to bring down those income multipliers in the long run might not be such a bad thing.

As I keep saying and gets glossed over, we obviously could do with improving our trade relationship with the EU. Some of the things the EU is refusing to recognise are absurd. The eel example was a great one: Eels can't be exported because they don't recognise the conservation bodies that certificate the eels sold as having been caught within quotas of sustainability, even though they're the exactly the same bodies we had when in the EU and legislation has barely changed.

Businesses like that chocolate business are pivoting away from the EU for their own survival. Inevitably, it does hurt the EU as well as us for our trade relationship to deteriorate. They know this, as indicated by the pragmatism over the Windsor framework. Our trade relationshp with the EU will improve, but even if it doesn't, in the long run, I think all of these predictions of 4.5% are going to prove to be wild exagerrations, much like talk of cliff edges was.

 

Would you agree LYB, that you are right that Brexit is done and dusted but there is no reason why if public opinion moves even further, and it is clear that it is never far away from a news headline, that there is a justification for another referendum. That refrendum does not necessarily have to be rejoining but possibly renegotiating?

[Herman 9,817]

From the few videos I have seen the brexiter Question Time special is going to be really bloody annoying. I'll give it a miss, methinks.

[Creative Midfielder 2,000]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I thought people would enjoy (or not) reading this.

Tic - Tok it seems

Its by Peter Kellner ex You Gov boss.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/anti-brexit-britain-has-reached-the-point-of-return/

Interesting numbers - I remember making this argument on a number of occasions in the early days of Brexit and more recently with respect to Irish re-unification but of course the Brexiteers wouldn't have any of it, Ricardo especially if memory serves.

It made a lot of sense then but of course it could have been a projection that didn't pan out for a multitude of reasons but in fact the passage of time is gradually proving it to be absolutely correct where Brexit is concerned (and increasingly likely to be correct where NI is concerned as well).

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Interesting numbers - I remember making this argument on a number of occasions in the early days of Brexit and more recently with respect to Irish re-unification but of course the Brexiteers wouldn't have any of it, Ricardo especially if memory serves.

It made a lot of sense then but of course it could have been a projection that didn't pan out for a multitude of reasons but in fact the passage of time is gradually proving it to be absolutely correct where Brexit is concerned (and increasingly likely to be correct where NI is concerned as well).

I always said ten years a couple of years ago now. Not for this election but closer ties will be on the cards for the one after. Probably from a pro-business reformed for the young New Tory party !

[littleyellowbirdie 2,574]

3 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Would you agree LYB, that you are right that Brexit is done and dusted but there is no reason why if public opinion moves even further, and it is clear that it is never far away from a news headline, that there is a justification for another referendum. That refrendum does not necessarily have to be rejoining but possibly renegotiating?

I don't think there needs to be a referendum to change terms of the trade agreement, and I think that's going to happen in the next year or two, one way or the other. The mood music between the UK and the EU generally seems much better. I think both the UK and the EU will be keen to keep it all quite low key though, with little in the way of fanfare either way.

'Closer ties' is such a vague term that I'd say it's guaranteed. How close is anyone's guess, but the limiting factor will always be what the EU is willing to concede without us actually being in the EU. If we finish up with our FTA looking similar to Japan's with the EU recognising cumulation of rules of origin in cptpp then that would be a pretty healthy position and is achievable.

 

Edited June 22, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[littleyellowbirdie 2,574]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/anti-brexit-britain-has-reached-the-point-of-return/

'This is not an argument for abandoning the dream of rejoining the EU. It is, however, an argument for acknowledging how tricky it will be to reach that goal. Each stage of the journey must be planned with care, not least to keep the electorate on board. The polling evidence supports the case for a first stage that is bold but specific: a full restoration of frictionless trade, including freedom of movement for workers. That would undo much, though not all, of the damage Brexit has inflicted.'

This one sentence underlines why this is a pipe dream and illustrates a basic lack of understanding of the political character of the EU on behalf of the author. To do this, the EU would essentially be granting access to select pillars of the EU when its entire political identity is now invested in our being all or nothing.

These polls are meaningless. Lots of people who voted to leave the EU regret it. I voted to remain and regret that we left the EU. But that doesn't translate into believing rejoining the EU on whatever terms of demands is the right way forward now; the world has changed massively since 1972. Europe is diminishing and other parts of the world are ascending. It doesn't make sense to needlessly restrict ourselves after the damage has already been done and we won't really know anything for a few more years.

A lady on question time has highlighted the biggest problem we had with the EU: the UK would enforce rules while others wouldn't. This is true in so many areas. Big on rules, but no teeth for enforcement, leaving an uneven playing field based on the vagaries of respective civil services in different countries. It's fundamentally and irreparably flawed. I wish all its members well, all in favour of a closer relationship, but the wish to rejoin is pie in the sky.

Edited June 22, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[A Load of Squit 5,201]

This b0ll0x about the UK enforcing the rules whilst other countries didn't is just another stupid Brexit myth, the details of breaches by countries are documented by the EU.

Brexiters lied before Brexit, they lied during Brexit and they are still lying about Brexit.

[Herman 9,817]

Is he using this mad, old sod to back up his argument?

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,968]

23 minutes ago, Herman said:

Is he using this mad, old sod to back up his argument?

 

What a strange woman. Is she saying she would be happier with a higher death rate at work in the UK? 

[Herman 9,817]

23 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

What a strange woman. Is she saying she would be happier with a higher death rate at work in the UK? 

God knows. I don't know why she chose those two countries either. The Germans are not known for their lax safety rules.

Some of what I have seen reinforces my belief that people shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near a massive decision like the referendum.

[Herman 9,817]

😄

Last look, Labour/LibDem/Green were on 88%.

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

'This is not an argument for abandoning the dream of rejoining the EU. It is, however, an argument for acknowledging how tricky it will be to reach that goal. Each stage of the journey must be planned with care, not least to keep the electorate on board. The polling evidence supports the case for a first stage that is bold but specific: a full restoration of frictionless trade, including freedom of movement for workers. That would undo much, though not all, of the damage Brexit has inflicted.'

This one sentence underlines why this is a pipe dream and illustrates a basic lack of understanding of the political character of the EU on behalf of the author. To do this, the EU would essentially be granting access to select pillars of the EU when its entire political identity is now invested in our being all or nothing.

These polls are meaningless. Lots of people who voted to leave the EU regret it. I voted to remain and regret that we left the EU. But that doesn't translate into believing rejoining the EU on whatever terms of demands is the right way forward now; the world has changed massively since 1972. Europe is diminishing and other parts of the world are ascending. It doesn't make sense to needlessly restrict ourselves after the damage has already been done and we won't really know anything for a few more years.

A lady on question time has highlighted the biggest problem we had with the EU: the UK would enforce rules while others wouldn't. This is true in so many areas. Big on rules, but no teeth for enforcement, leaving an uneven playing field based on the vagaries of respective civil services in different countries. It's fundamentally and irreparably flawed. I wish all its members well, all in favour of a closer relationship, but the wish to rejoin is pie in the sky.

Your opinions LYB are just that - opinions not facts.

Kellner's polls and article was a well researched / balanced article and as you note he explicitly points out the problems in fully rejoining the EU on our original 'terms'. However, first steps such as the SM (by another name) i.e Norway look now much more plausible as first steps indeed would be welcomed by a clear majority of electorate it seems!

Clearly the tide is turning on our Brexit tantrum. More rational heads are coming to the fore - even in Clacton (many have changed their views),  and the Brexit 'myths' be that EU workers on benefits (as in Kellner's article) or indeed the dopey lady's myths about us enforcing EU rules are debunked. It always was a pure lie for the dim like 80M Turks coming. 

As to enforcing the rules - I already noted the other day that the CPTPP is already having its internal arguments / fallouts about states not following or implementing its rules 😉