The Positive Brexit Thread

[TheGunnShow 6,002]

The 80million Turks line was dreadful. The whole notion that Turkey under Erdogan, who is basically a pathetic, thin-skinned salafist in a suit, would have prepared his rule of Turkey to be compatible with EU ideals enough so he would get in was so poor it stood up to absolutely no scrutiny whatsoever. An absolute dog-whistle.

Edited June 23, 2023 by TheGunnShow

[PurpleCanary 5,580]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

God knows. I don't know why she chose those two countries either. The Germans are not known for their lax safety rules.

Some of what I have seen reinforces my belief that people shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near a massive decision like the referendum.

Yes, Hermy, the Germans, but what about the French?! Jerry-built that Eiffel Tower monstrosity as a temporary thing in 1989 and 134 years later still haven't got round to knocking the death-trap down...

[littleyellowbirdie 2,595]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Your opinions LYB are just that - opinions not facts.

Kellner's polls and article was a well researched / balanced article and as you note he explicitly points out the problems in fully rejoining the EU on our original 'terms'. However, first steps such as the SM (by another name) i.e Norway look now much more plausible as first steps indeed would be welcomed by a clear majority of electorate it seems!

Clearly the tide is turning on our Brexit tantrum. More rational heads are coming to the fore - even in Clacton (many have changed their views),  and the Brexit 'myths' be that EU workers on benefits (as in Kellner's article) or indeed the dopey lady's myths about us enforcing EU rules are debunked. It always was a pure lie for the dim like 80M Turks coming. 

As to enforcing the rules - I already noted the other day that the CPTPP is already having its internal arguments / fallouts about states not following or implementing its rules 😉

 

This specific point is fact, not opinion: Free movement and frictionless trade are pillars of the EU. If you want these, you have to join the EU in full. That is the EU's official position.

This is also fact: The article specifically lays out aiming to negotiate free movement and frictionless trade without joining the EU as a stepping stone to rejoining the EU.

Now I'll move into opinion: The second point relies on persuading the EU to make an exception for the UK to cherry pick pillars of the EU in a formal agreement between us without actually rejoining the EU. This would be a massive U turn on behalf of the EU that would massively undermine the credibility of their official position and have many other countries knocking on their door. In effect, whoever tried to negotiate this would simply be told that they'll have to rejoin the EU and then the whole nightmare argument returns all over again. Even if the balance may have tipped to deciding leaving the EU was a mistake, there's still a huge chunk who are content and resistant to rejoining. It will be every bit as divisive.

Fundamentally, this is why I'm in favour of the repair of relations with the EU happening discretely and pragmatically behind closed doors in small but sure steps. The EU has invested a lot of political capital in not changing the current agreement for post-brexit trade. They can't allow us a 'victory' like that.

My point is they can agree separate treaties with us that restore mutual recognition in many areas, like conservation bodies, which has stopped the export of live eels without it becoming a public argument where people start talking about referendums.

 

[dylanisabaddog 4,987]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

God knows. I don't know why she chose those two countries either. The Germans are not known for their lax safety rules.

Some of what I have seen reinforces my belief that people shouldn't have been allowed anywhere near a massive decision like the referendum.

I've posted on a separate thread that half the people recently surveyed think that a reduction in inflation means that prices will come down.

That and the Brexit result are proof that you should never have referendums on complex but vital national issues. Hopefully we will learn from it. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

7 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I've posted on a separate thread that half the people recently surveyed think that a reduction in inflation means that prices will come down.

That and the Brexit result are proof that you should never have referendums on complex but vital national issues. Hopefully we will learn from it. 

One thing is certain. People renting in the private sector will not see a reduction in their rent even if inflation drops to negligible rates and interest rates drop to 1%. So inflation will not have disappeared. It has a permanent effect whenever it happens.All we beat on about in this country is house prices forgetting that one third of the population live in private rental accommodation.

[Yellow Fever 3,834]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

This specific point is fact, not opinion: Free movement and frictionless trade are pillars of the EU. If you want these, you have to join the EU in full. That is the EU's official position.

This is also fact: The article specifically lays out aiming to negotiate free movement and frictionless trade without joining the EU as a stepping stone to rejoining the EU.

Now I'll move into opinion: The second point relies on persuading the EU to make an exception for the UK to cherry pick pillars of the EU in a formal agreement between us without actually rejoining the EU. This would be a massive U turn on behalf of the EU that would massively undermine the credibility of their official position and have many other countries knocking on their door. In effect, whoever tried to negotiate this would simply be told that they'll have to rejoin the EU and then the whole nightmare argument returns all over again. Even if the balance may have tipped to deciding leaving the EU was a mistake, there's still a huge chunk who are content and resistant to rejoining. It will be every bit as divisive.

Fundamentally, this is why I'm in favour of the repair of relations with the EU happening discretely and pragmatically behind closed doors in small but sure steps. The EU has invested a lot of political capital in not changing the current agreement for post-brexit trade. They can't allow us a 'victory' like that.

My point is they can agree separate treaties with us that restore mutual recognition in many areas, like conservation bodies, which has stopped the export of live eels without it becoming a public argument where people start talking about referendums.

 

Perhaps you should check your facts.

Norway is in the SM but not the EU (as is Iceland and Lichtenstein)

https://fullfact.org/europe/can-you-be-single-market-without-being-eu-member/

I appreciate there are lots of rules you'ld have to follow but Norway simply disproves your convenient fiction. It's not as black and white as you'd have us believe although it is as usual one the things Brexiteers run too as soon as it is mooted to try and negate any such discussion of return. 

All that said - I note as in the polls today (below) we ae moving inexorably back towards membership. Equally, I'm very sure as the 'prodigal son' returning (older and wiser) that the EU would itself welcome us back and in my opinion try to meet some of our concerns. It is after-all also older and wiser.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/23/britons-who-want-to-rejoin-eu-at-highest-since-2016-survey-finds

The clock is ticking. Tick-tock.

Edited June 23, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[TheGunnShow 6,002]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I've posted on a separate thread that half the people recently surveyed think that a reduction in inflation means that prices will come down.

That and the Brexit result are proof that you should never have referendums on complex but vital national issues. Hopefully we will learn from it. 

Disagree here, Switzerland has done pretty well out of it - their whole political model is all about increased voter participation in things that matter to them. I didn't agree with the outcome of this one at all, but the answer here is better education and a media that's more effective at actually doing its job.

[Yellow Fever 3,834]

3 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

Disagree here, Switzerland has done pretty well out of it - their whole political model is all about increased voter participation in things that matter to them. I didn't agree with the outcome of this one at all, but the answer here is better education and a media that's more effective at actually doing its job.

I haver no idea of the Swiss TGS - but I'd agree direct democracy can only work if the electorate are educated and politically engaged. Here in the UK it would likely end up in mob rule. Lowest common denominator stuff.

I think our representative democracy (representatives not delegates) can work well - we elect representative who (should) have the wit and intelligence to make balanced decisions on our behalf. Sadly the witless redtop media plus social media echo chambers undermines all of that and out representatives too are often self serving weak characters!

[TheGunnShow 6,002]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

I haver no idea of the Swiss TGS - but I'd agree direct democracy can only work if the electorate are educated and politically engaged. Here in the UK it would likely end up in mob rule. Lowest common denominator stuff.

I think our representative democracy (representatives not delegates) can work well - we elect representative who (should) have the wit and intelligence to make balanced decisions on our behalf. Sadly the witless redtop media plus social media echo chambers undermines all of that and out representatives too are often self serving weak characters!

There's a popular misgiving that the Swiss model is direct democracy, it isn't. It's still predominantly representative democracy but with some elements of direct democracy in there if matters crop up that are suitably supported from the populace within a certain timeframe, whether to call a referendum via public initiative or to confront legislation they don't agree with.

Your last sentence sums it up for me - our media is not fit for purpose.

[Yellow Fever 3,834]

1 minute ago, TheGunnShow said:

There's a popular misgiving that the Swiss model is direct democracy, it isn't. It's still predominantly representative democracy but with some elements of direct democracy in there if matters crop up that are suitably supported from the populace within a certain timeframe, whether to call a referendum via public initiative or to confront legislation they don't agree with.

Your last sentence sums it up for me - our media is not fit for purpose.

I defer to your better knowledge of the Swiss.

California has something similar then - regular small  referendums.

[TheGunnShow 6,002]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I defer to your better knowledge of the Swiss.

California has something similar then - regular small  referendums.

Yep, basic primer about the Swiss model here.
 

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,595]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Perhaps you should check your facts.

Norway is in the SM but not the EU (as is Iceland and Lichtenstein)

https://fullfact.org/europe/can-you-be-single-market-without-being-eu-member/

I appreciate there are lots of rules you'ld have to follow but Norway simply disproves your convenient fiction. It's not as black and white as you'd have us believe although it is as usual one the things Brexiteers run too as soon as it is mooted to try and negate any such discussion of return. 

All that said - I note as in the polls today (below) we ae moving inexorably back towards membership. Equally, I'm very sure as the 'prodigal son' returning (older and wiser) that the EU would itself welcome us back and in my opinion try to meet some of our concerns. It is after-all also older and wiser.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jun/23/britons-who-want-to-rejoin-eu-at-highest-since-2016-survey-finds

The clock is ticking. Tick-tock.

That's a very select fact, ignoring the EFTA element and ignoring the fact that it predates the Lisbon treaty, which means it's irrelevant and superceded by the present nature of the EU, especially given your article specifies 'frictionless trade'… which would mean CU and SM.  In fact, it's basically saying the trade negotiation should just be 'rejoin the EU'... as a stepping stone to rejoining the EU.

Yes, at rock bottom the EU would like a net contributor back in the EU, but they've invested too much political capital in the one size fits all approach. Ironically, the argument seems to contain a hint of British exceptionalism in the extent to which is suggested they'll bend over to get us back in.

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Barbe bleu 832]

2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I've posted on a separate thread that half the people recently surveyed think that a reduction in inflation means that prices will come down.

That and the Brexit result are proof that you should never have referendums on complex but vital national issues. Hopefully we will learn from it. 

(Sarcasm mode engaged) Why stop at referendums?  They are generally single issue votes with just two options but at an election voters are asked not only to consider complex and vital national issues but to do so across a bewildering number of fields and to balance a range of options.  It's all too much for Mr stupid. 

Why not just cut them out of the process entirely and get some experts in to do what's right for the simpletons? (Sarcasm mode disengaged)

 

Edited June 23, 2023 by Barbe bleu

[A Load of Squit 5,221]

12 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

That's a very select fact, ignoring the EFTA element and ignoring the fact that it predates the Lisbon treaty, which means it's irrelevant and superceded by the present nature of the EU.

 

During the negotiations to leave we were offered a Norway style deal, 10 years after the Lisbon Treaty.

You are stupid.

Edited June 23, 2023 by A Load of Squit

[Herman 9,825]

I still support the IQ test for all adults 

14 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

(Sarcasm mode engaged) Why stop at referendums?  They are generally single issue votes with just two options but at an election voters are asked not only to consider complex and vital national issues but to do so across a bewildering number of fields and to balance a range of options.  It's all too much for Mr stupid. 

Why not just cut them out of the process entirely and get some experts in to do what's right for the simpletons? (Sarcasm mode disengaged)

 

I still think the IQ test for all adults before they vote is a good idea. 

[jaberry2 556]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

I still support the IQ test for all adults 

I still think the IQ test for all adults before they vote is a good idea. 

A very good point seeing as a high majority of people who voted for Brexit seem like they want to rejoin the EU again now. This country never ceases to amaze me with the lack of foresight.

[Barbe bleu 832]

18 minutes ago, Herman said:

I still support the IQ test for all adults 

I still think the IQ test for all adults before they vote is a good idea. 

Too right, set the number high enough and only horsefly and lyb will get to vote.   What could possibly go wrong!?

Edited June 23, 2023 by Barbe bleu

[Barbe bleu 832]

12 minutes ago, jaberry2 said:

A very good point seeing as a high majority of people who voted for Brexit seem like they want to rejoin the EU again now. This country never ceases to amaze me with the lack of foresight.

Yea, but anyone that is getting stressed waiting for it to happen is likely to have a much shortened life.

Rejoining might happen one day in the far future but it's not worth putting any effort into making it happen. Particularly if that effort is on a regional football forum....

[jaberry2 556]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yea, but anyone that is getting stressed waiting for it to happen is likely to have a much shortened life.

Rejoining might happen one day in the far future but it's not worth putting any effort into making it happen. Particularly if that effort is on a regional football forum....

Agreed. I cant see anything happening in short term regardless of opinion.

[Yellow Fever 3,834]

11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yea, but anyone that is getting stressed waiting for it to happen is likely to have a much shortened life.

Rejoining might happen one day in the far future but it's not worth putting any effort into making it happen. Particularly if that effort is on a regional football forum....

Oddly BB I think this football forum is far more open to sensible discussions than almost any other forum including the HoC that I can think of. Many here are very knowledgeable, overseas,  and open to alternative thoughts. We have a surprising mix of people from very different backgrounds and experiences, professions and roles - some I suspect very senior. Thankfully not many tribal politicians.

The fact that we are all irrationally supporters of the Canaries (with all the twists of fate and disappointment that brings) means we have far more in common than most! All disagreements forgotten when we playing 1p5swich!

Edited June 23, 2023 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,834]

40 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

During the negotiations to leave we were offered a Norway style deal, 10 years after the Lisbon Treaty.

Thanks Squitty. As noted nothing is/was black and white and all options are/where open and can be considered. No 'cancel' culture by the wokey Brexiteers please 😉

From Wikki 

In British politics, the "Norway-plus model" was a proposal for a post-Brexit settlement, which the British government did not pursue. Proposed in November 2018 as an alternative to the Chequers plan, it would have consisted of membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and of membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) as an EFTA member state, combined with a separate customs union with the EU to create a trade relationship similar to that between the EU and its member states today, with the exception of the political representation in the EU's bodies.^[1][2] Michel Barnier, the EU's Chief Negotiator, has always said that a model that combined EEA/EFTA and a customs union was one that he would be happy to consider.

One of the main proponents of the plan is the former Conservative backbench MP Nick Boles.^[3] The description "Norway-plus" refers to Norway's relationship with the European Union (and that of the other smaller EFTA–EEA members, Iceland and Liechtenstein), with "plus" referring to the addition of a customs union outside of EFTA.

  

[Yellow Fever 3,834]

Before I get away for an extended weekend -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/23/britain-2016-brexit-vote-eu-referendum-labour

Enjoy. Curtis thinks Tick Tock too it seems.

 

[Nuff Said 5,178]

59 minutes ago, Herman said:

I still support the IQ test for all adults 

I still think the IQ test for all adults before they vote is a good idea. 

Reminds me of this:

[littleyellowbirdie 2,595]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

During the negotiations to leave we were offered a Norway style deal, 10 years after the Lisbon Treaty.

You are stupid.

That was while we were still members negotiating future terms, not applying as new members from scratch.

The terms of single market access, customs union access, free movement, are very clear from the EU and available on the EU website in writing: It tells you that you need to join the EU. That's the EU's words. You can come up with all these other points, but none of them matter as much as the EU's own position. And if the EU's own position on its own policies is so worthless, then it's hardly worth rejoining anyway.

You are stupid.

Edited June 23, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Nuff Said 5,178]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

 It's all too much for Mr stupid. 

 

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

You are stupid.

 

2 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

You are stupid.

Oscar Wilde must be spinning in his grave.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,595]

3 minutes ago, Nuff Said said:

 

 

Oscar Wilde must be spinning in his grave.

My attitude is I don't waste mental effort on clever retorts in response to stupid insults when the target is clearly an idiot who won't appreciate the effort.

Just insult them back and move on.

Edited June 23, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Herman 9,825]

27 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Before I get away for an extended weekend -

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jun/23/britain-2016-brexit-vote-eu-referendum-labour

Enjoy. Curtis thinks Tick Tock too it seems.

 

Long weekend for me too. First time back in Norfolk for a few months. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,595]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Thanks Squitty. As noted nothing is/was black and white and all options are/where open and can be considered. No 'cancel' culture by the wokey Brexiteers please 😉

From Wikki 

In British politics, the "Norway-plus model" was a proposal for a post-Brexit settlement, which the British government did not pursue. Proposed in November 2018 as an alternative to the Chequers plan, it would have consisted of membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and of membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) as an EFTA member state, combined with a separate customs union with the EU to create a trade relationship similar to that between the EU and its member states today, with the exception of the political representation in the EU's bodies.^[1][2] Michel Barnier, the EU's Chief Negotiator, has always said that a model that combined EEA/EFTA and a customs union was one that he would be happy to consider.

One of the main proponents of the plan is the former Conservative backbench MP Nick Boles.^[3] The description "Norway-plus" refers to Norway's relationship with the European Union (and that of the other smaller EFTA–EEA members, Iceland and Liechtenstein), with "plus" referring to the addition of a customs union outside of EFTA.

  

You'll note that 'Norway plus' recquires membership of EFTA (as mentioned in the Wiki), which was ruled out by Norway (https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/07/norwegian-politicians-reject-uks-norway-plus-brexit-plan). The EU didn't 'offer' this either. It was just an idea put forward by those keen to keep us in the single market and customs union.

There is a growing list of 'promises' being offered by rejoin that could finish up being cast as 'rejoiner lies' that could finish up making EU membership every bit as toxic politically as last time.

Who knew that British exceptionalism so ridiculed when exhibited by leavers was so prevalent among rejoiners as well?

John Curtice is talking of fairly marginal changes in the overall outlook. His main point is that they're going to have to be careful to keep their largely pro-EU support happy, but that still doesn't dismiss the fact that they'll still need to keep their anti-EU supporters happy. The Lib Dems were heavily punished in the South West where they had been previously very successful for their aggressively anti-Brexit position.

The other clock that's ticking is the extent to which everyone adapts to life post-Brexit and when actual benefits of leaving do start to come online that start to make this look all less attractive and EU influence declines.

1972: EEC GDP 990bn$ Global GDP: $3.8tn (EEC was 26% of global GDP)

2021: EU GDP 17.18tn$ Global GDP. 97tn% (EU was 18% of global GD, even including all the extra members since 1972)

That's just in terms of total nominal GDP, never mind the horrific challenges the organisation has with its own internal paralysis on issues like asylum seekers. The world will be a very different place in 10 years. Tick tock.

In all this, you need to remember that 58% now say they'd vote to rejoin after all they've seen is negative news for a few years about the economic losses of leaving the EU. You can guarantee that there will be an aggressive negative campaign scrutinising rejoin ferociously if the issue was broached. You'd also finish up with the UK losing further inward investment as the world hedges its bets waiting to see what happens.

Weirdly, most of the heavily EU rejoin camp come across as quite old-school thatcherite in their focus on trade and economics to the exclusion of everything else. Brexit wasn't anything to do with economics, and economic arguments alone won't get us back in the EU.

Edited June 23, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[Nuff Said 5,178]

1 hour ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The other clock that's ticking is the extent to which everyone adapts to life post-Brexit and when actual benefits of leaving do start to come online that start to make this look all less attractive and EU influence declines.

1972: EEC GDP 990bn$ Global GDP: $3.8tn (EEC was 26% of global GDP)

2021: EU GDP 17.18tn$ Global GDP. 97tn% (EU was 18% of global GD, even including all the extra members since 1972)

You seem to be under the misapprehension that EU membership is either/or. We can still trade with rest of the world while in the EU.

[Barbe bleu 832]

1 hour ago, Nuff Said said:

 

 

Oscar Wilde must be spinning in his grave.

In fairness to me, I wasn't calling anyone on here stupid.  I might think it but....