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sgncfc

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Everything posted by sgncfc

  1. Probably the most nervous I've ever been at the end of a football match.....
  2. I don't think that is actually what I said. The figures I used were just for illustration of the type of investment necessary to have a chance of ultimately making a return on an investment. As Badger pointed out, I very much doubt you'd get the existing club for as little as £100m when you probably have player contract assets and cash in the bank of at least that much. However, assuming that these figures overall are not that far out and would take place over several years I remain convinced (and I realise that I am in a minority of one, but I'm quite used to that as an investor) that it would be relatively easy to make money in terms of long term asset value (not annual return on investment, which was never something under consideration). Everyone on here saying that TV money is limited is so way off the mark. We are so insular in thinking that everything revolves around the UK, even Europe. The numbers in Asia and the Americas are staggering. TV money will continue to rocket - overseas rights will dwarf the home market in a few years. That's why we can't let the big 6 have their SuperLeague - there are multi billions at stake, which is of course why they want their SuperLeague. I can genuinely see a time in the not too distant future when every EPL team will have an income of well over £1bn per annum, just from TV and streaming. That would make a £340m investment look pretty sound. Elon Musk's global satellite system isn't even fully operational yet - potential free internet to the world with content providers paying for access; people watching live for a few dollars a match adds up to an awful lot of dollars. You need to look longer term - given the way the world is moving, what will Norwich City FC be worth in 20 years time as an EPL club? The figures quoted on here for sales have largely been by distressed or desperate owners. Newcastle, for example, was an absolute steal at £300m. Now would be a great time to get on the gravy train (if you were a billionaire!) The investors who bought clubs like Burnley and Ipswich are not stupid. We are (like it or not) in that same category of massive potential. Our current owners can close their eyes and minds to it as long as they like, but I think it is inevitable that they (or their successors) will eventually get an offer they can't refuse.
  3. And, just to add, what is the owner of Fulham currently doing? Increasing the capacity, improving their facilities and entering into partnerships in Asia. He'll still need to spend another £100m on players to stay in the EPL but I guarantee you he is doing this to make money ultimately, which he will. It's really not that relevant to subscribers/followers in Asia that Fulham is on the outskirts of London, or that Norwich is 100 miles away.
  4. As you know I completely disagree that there is nothing for an investor to leverage against, but I have also advocated for a community shareholder takeover or at least a much more widespread investment opportunity. The Academy Bond showed what was possible with a bit of innovative thinking.
  5. Well, it may have passed you by but all 3 of those clubs you mention (as in West Brom, Fulham and Sunderland) are currently owned by billionaires, which kind of proves my point. Norwich are one of the few clubs in the two top divisions still available. We are a bit like the last house in the road which is still a "do-up".
  6. That's all perfectly understandable, but possibly explains why I'm an investor and maybe (I'm guessing) you're not - and I don't mean that unkindly, but I think it's a very different mindset. Lots of investments (especially vanity ones, which I've acknowledged this would be in my post) don't produce what you would describe as a return until they are sold. Unfortunately I'm not in this league of investment otherwise I'd be very happy to give it a try! I was really only using figures as a simple guide rather than with any accuracy. The point I make regarding the opportunity is still valid in relation to the example of Chelsea I provided. Ground expansion and some more, shall we say, inventive worldwide commercial activities could have a huge impact on turnover. Many sports clubs around the world have very innovative, and very lucrative partnerships - I was surprised at which ones do well at this when I researched it.
  7. Interestingly, there are only 3 Norwich players in the "Worst PL X1 of the season so far" and they are Pukki, Rashica and Sargent.
  8. So, whilst noting all the above, and having some sympathy with the article it is written from the viewpoint that PE doesn't like "trophy" assets. That's not really a surprise because often they are indeed just for ego/PR/brand involvement. However, the point being made about Chelsea doesn't prove the argument against vanity investment. Abramovitch bought the club for £140m from Ken Bates. He didn't buy the ground in that which is owned by the Chelsea Pitch Owners registered trust/charity (no one seems quite sure), but the club has the right to play there in perpetuity. He has since invested about £1,500m, so a total outlay of £1,640m. Of the 20 or so offers received to buy the club, not one is below £2,000m. Some are (apparently) close to £3,000m. Let's take the middle and say that it goes for £2,500m which would represent a profit of £860m or 52% over the 19 years of ownership. Not particularly good as an investment (certainly not for a PE firm) but from a standard investing viewpoint he would have made a decent return and also had a great time personally. The most interesting thing about the bids for Chelsea is that they are all from consortia. The days of mad individuals committing billions appear to be gone. Some of those bidders have specifically stated that the club will never join a Super League and have given that as a guarantee to support their bid. They don't see the end of TV money or the end of the EPL. Nor do I. Whatever the morality of it may be, what we think in the UK is almost completely irrelevant; we have less than 10m paying viewers - PanAsia has 600m, increasing at about 25m a year. There are 2.3 billion households with a TV, increasing at 100m a year. If the braodacsters maintain their current "share" of 25% (or even increase it) there is zero chance of any kind of "reset". Relating that back to Norwich, let's say you could buy the club outright (including the ground) for £100m. If you then invest £40m into turning the ground into a 35,000 seater and another £200m in players and salaries you could make it a viable EPL club. Would the club and all it's assets then be worth more than £340m? Probably. Any "business" with a £150m+++ turnover and assets of £2-300m (players and property) should be generating vanity investment interest. There are a huge number of ways to increase that turnover - none of which the current Board seem bothered about, incidentally. There is a huge opportunity at Norwich for someone.
  9. If this sort of conversation doesn't happen I'd be astonished. I suspect only Aarons, Giannoulis and Rashica will say they want to move on. Which means getting rid of the other makeweights might prove difficult.
  10. So, getting back to Cantwell, will we really get £11m for him from a promoted Bournemouth when he can't get beyond their bench or score gaols/make assists in the Championship? Or will he be back here, tail between legs, come the end of May?
  11. This totally scumbag club have now asked for their FA Cup tie to be played behind closed doors to "maintain sporting integrity". It is simply incredible that whoever is now in charge of this excuse for a football "club" thinks they have such entitlement that having 20 years of success on the back of very dodgy money, gives them the right to claim "integrity" is compromised if their supporters can't get to Middlesbrough. Unbelievable. How wonderful it would be if the authorities rescinded the trophies they won since 2003 and demoted them 3 divisions. We'd see how many "supporters" they had then.
  12. No they won't; not unless they spend £100m. The players they have are nowhere near good enough.
  13. And then.....? The only point of being promoted again is to just bank the money to safeguard the future. Play the system until they change the system. But every two years we get humiliated, and just alternate with Fulham.
  14. Nothing will happen. We all know that, really. Money talks, and no one in power is going to stop it talking. It would be great if the Premier League and the EFL came out and said that in order to protect the clubs they all have to be majority owned by UK citizens or UK registered companies with UK majority shareholders, and have supporter representation on their operating Boards. I realise it wouldn't stop the Mel Morriss's of this world or general incompetence (eg Bury, historically Blackpool etc) and would bar some good non-UK owners too, but wouldn't it be great to have that as something all clubs could aspire to?
  15. Kabak has the turning circle of the Queen Mary and Normann runs about like a headless chicken. We might be able to get them for very little, given their abject season to date, but I doubt either are regular starters even in the Championship if we seriously want to win it again. Personally I'd settle for Hanley, Gibson, Andrew O and Sorensen as our CB's with back up from the 23s. We need to spend every available penny we have on midfielders and forwards.
  16. I'm afraid both of them are too injury prone to be reliable in the relentless Championship. Squad fillers at best.
  17. Not like you to be so off the pace. Have a look at the match report from the Fulham game.
  18. Come on people, we've all been here before only two years ago. we all thought we would struggle in the Championship and our morale would be shot to bits. It won't be. Smith will overhaul the squad and we will be competitive again. He will get the chance to build a squad. You know that, really. Webber will apologise and ask for a last chance and get it. We can only "move on" the players we can get offers for and I don't see many of our players being sought after. I wouldn't be surprised to see us negotiate much lower fees for Kabak and Normann so that they stay. Rashica will be awesome in the Champs. Everyone writing off Tzolis, who destroyed the runaway league leaders in the 23s the other day. If he was one of ours without the price tag we'd be tub thumping for him. Get what we can for Cantwell, Hernandez, Hugill and Aarons, don't renew Rupp and whoever else is out of contract get in some new faces. We'll be fine.
  19. We always appoint nice men. Apart from Lambert. Coincidence?
  20. The whole set up of elite level football is based on generating as much money as possible. World Cups to Qatar and the US. 32 teams in the Euro's. Whether conscious or unconscious that includes appalling referees, whether they are on the pitch or watching a screen 200 miles away. If your team isn't in the top league it has to be striving to get there because that's where the money is. It's no longer about entertainment or being part of something - if it was, we would never have sacked Farke. Delia can go on and on about her club being different but when push came to shove, she lost the manager who had a heart and a plan and backed the bloke who doesn't. It's never going to change. Time for a breakaway league, with salary caps and ownership rules. Now, if I was a billionaire......
  21. Honestly, I'm really struggling to care. We have Newcastle fans proudly chanting at Chelsea fans that they now have the money - provided by a country which beheaded 81 men in one day and murders children in Yemen, which is clearly better than some dirty Russian money which bombs families running away. I genuinely could not care less about the Premier League. I want out and I never want to come back.
  22. I'm pretty sure we won't keep a clean sheet, and given that we find it nigh on impossible to score I'm going for another unlucky 3-0 defeat. Miss our best chance at 0-0, give away a goal from a set piece, a wonder strike from one of their midfielders and a tap in at the end once we've given up.
  23. Raphinha, Rodrigo and James against Gibson and Kabak. Ho hum.
  24. You don't have to be a great defender to be a man marker, but you're right that he isn't very good at it!
  25. Player wages to go down? I think that's unlikely as long as Sky, Amazon and BT have their chequebooks open (does everyone know what a chequebook is?🙂) If player wages don't go down very few clubs in the EPL can be self-sustaining. Not every wealthy owner is someone who should be barred; not every wealthy owner is good for a football club, even if they are morally upright and honest. Coutinho is reputedly on £460,000 a week. Chelsea's annual wageroll is £340m, and 17 billionaires are lining up to fund them. Our annual turnover without any TV money is maybe £25m. The Norwich model won't become the norm.
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