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Making Plans

Next season PL betting odds

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To stay up - we are quoted as 2/7 to stay upIf you''ve got £7k to spare it''s probably the easiest £2k profit you''ll ever make.http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/premier-league/to-stay-upTo get relegated - although were not in the bottom 3 we''re at 5/2, joint 4th favourites to go down.http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation

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5/2 to be relegated is rubbish odds. Maybe the legwettters looking for a little "insurance" might like to wait until March 2014 before wagering as they''ll probably get 66/1 or better by then. [:P]

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but in a negative way of looking at it...4th favorite to get relegated :( booo. This offseason I hope will be really strong. Get the odd''s now before we do strengthen our squad

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I am a little bit surprised we''re 4th favourites to go down. From a neutral point of view, I can see that most people would expect Newcastle to be better next year given their performance the season before and the players they have got. Villa ended the season well, so that may skew betting odds and the perception of neutrals into thinking they''ll be good next year. Fulham probably because they''ve got a decent squad and are just one of those teams that are always safe may again not be viewed as favourites to go down, even though I think they''ll seriously struggle next year.

But all of the other teams below us, I struggle to see why we would be significantly below them. Sunderland look terrible and with Di Canio are likely to implode at any moment. Southampton will have second season syndrome and hardly looked brilliant even with the new manager. Stoke have very little quality and a new manager coming in with a different philosophy to Pulis could see them not being good enough to play their way to safety and not having the mentality to scrape points like they have done for the last however many years. And I can see no reason whatsoever to predict the 3 promoted clubs will do better than us.

I would have expected us, with our stable finances, stable management, reasonably strong end to the season and 11th place finish despite being terrible for months on end, to be predicted more around the 14th sort of position!

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Well lets look at the teams around us knowing what we know as of now :

Crystal Palace : Don''t see them staying up but they do have a lot of rich supporters

Watford: Don''t see them staying up.

Cardiff : I do think they can compete in the PL

Sunderland : That was a team ready to be relegated if there was a few more games. A team in turmoil I believe. I see no positives from them.

Newcastle : They have Huge money coming in next year from Sponsors so expect them to spend big but I believe they are a little wiser then QPR

Villa : Young upcoming players and I do believe with a season under their belt they will vastly improve.

Southampton : Eh Seemed to have promise to move forward but never did but they do have Lambert and they can build around him.

Stoke : Physical team but nothing shouts out to me about them. Just a strong defensive team.

Fulham: Berbatov 15 goals at 32years is nice numbers but will be another year older. Nothing Great about them. I can see them slipping.

West Ham : They have money coming in Soon and should be stronger.

Swansea : Bargain in Michu and play very well on the road. 5W-5L-9D

West Brom : Lukaku 17 Goals can he repeat that tally? I can see them sliding.

Norwich : We got Wolfy coming but is an unknown in the EPL but high hopes. If we didn''t score the 7 goals in the last 2 games we would be either tied for 2nd last or 3rd fewest goals scored. But Ruddy back for a full season will help also. Hopefully Howson can play like he has been lately that would be huge in midfield. Would love a player to attack the defenders. Snoddy one year under his belt will help. R.Bennett will improve I believe with game time coming his way.

Some things I first think about so I can see why we would be one of the fav''s to go down also but I think like us a few others again will be in that same group. I sadly feel this will be a never ending battle for us.

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No that is true...but based on TODAYS information you can see why we would be one of the favorites to go down again...Based on today''s teams.

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I''d have thought that based on todays teams we''d be fairly strong favourites to finish around 11th place and as we''re the only team to have already done some good business in the striking department you couldn''t be blamed for thinking as of todays teams we''re actually even stronger than we were when we finished mid table.[:S]

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[quote user="Blurboy1980"]Well lets look at the teams around us knowing what we know as of now :

Crystal Palace : Don''t see them staying up but they do have a lot of rich supporters

Watford: Don''t see them staying up.

Cardiff : I do think they can compete in the PL

Sunderland : That was a team ready to be relegated if there was a few more games. A team in turmoil I believe. I see no positives from them.

Newcastle : They have Huge money coming in next year from Sponsors so expect them to spend big but I believe they are a little wiser then QPR

Villa : Young upcoming players and I do believe with a season under their belt they will vastly improve.

Southampton : Eh Seemed to have promise to move forward but never did but they do have Lambert and they can build around him.

Stoke : Physical team but nothing shouts out to me about them. Just a strong defensive team.

Fulham: Berbatov 15 goals at 32years is nice numbers but will be another year older. Nothing Great about them. I can see them slipping.

West Ham : They have money coming in Soon and should be stronger.

Swansea : Bargain in Michu and play very well on the road. 5W-5L-9D

West Brom : Lukaku 17 Goals can he repeat that tally? I can see them sliding.

Norwich : We got Wolfy coming but is an unknown in the EPL but high hopes. If we didn''t score the 7 goals in the last 2 games we would be either tied for 2nd last or 3rd fewest goals scored. But Ruddy back for a full season will help also. Hopefully Howson can play like he has been lately that would be huge in midfield. Would love a player to attack the defenders. Snoddy one year under his belt will help. R.Bennett will improve I believe with game time coming his way.

Some things I first think about so I can see why we would be one of the fav''s to go down also but I think like us a few others again will be in that same group. I sadly feel this will be a never ending battle for us.[/quote]

cant see watford going down. wink.

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[quote user="Grant Holts 3 year contract"]I had Talksport on earlier today and they were talking about the teams people thought would finish bottom 5.

We were mentioned EVERY single time!

[8] AGAIN- WE''LL PROVE THEM WRONG AGAIN![/quote]Indeed, and Fulham and Stoke were also mentioned quite a lot. Even Everton a few times. Any team with a lack of goals will definitely be in the mix.

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"If you''ve got £7k to spare it''s probably the easiest £2k profit you''ll ever make."

Does anyone really have 7k to spare for betting on football ?

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City will always be ''unfashionable'' in the national press. RvW will make a big difference in the style of play, even bigger if we can bring in a really good ACM like Christian Eriksen or similar to replace Fox as well as strengthening elsewhere. As for Villa, it will depend on whether they can keep Benteke and Wiemann, IMO.

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[quote user="Making Plans"]To stay up - we are quoted as 2/7 to stay upIf you''ve got £7k to spare it''s probably the easiest £2k profit you''ll ever make.http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/premier-league/to-stay-upTo get relegated - although were not in the bottom 3 we''re at 5/2, joint 4th favourites to go down.http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/relegation[/quote]

Someone should let Chopra know of a sure thing!!

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I don''t think that the new players coming in is as important as the players teams might lose. There will be some worried teams struggling to keep star players and our strong point is that we are by no means a "one man team" Can see Ruddy and Snoddy being the only two who may generate interest and think both will probably still be here next season. Cannot say the same for Benteke, Michu etc. We may have the same problem next year if RVW has a good season.

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The 3 promoted teams all look like they need half a new team but that is no different from any other year! Cardiff have rich backers and a good young manager but rich backers havent helped Wolves, Blackburn or QPR in the last 2 years & promising young managers didnt help Reading or Wigan. Hull & Palace both have newish boards & may have a bit of cash from their backers but neither look to have many stand out players. Both have ok managers but also the kind of managers who are prone to very poor seasons.

As for rest, well Villa have goals in them but much will depend on whether they can keep their better players & what more gems Lambert can unearth - you suspect they will be mid table at least. Sunderland have the established team that will implode tag written all over them. Newcastle should be top half if they steer clear of injuries & add a couple more to existing squad. Stoke will be able to give Hughes some cash so that means they will be in trouble!!! Fulham - have some decent players but they fell away badly towards end of season. If berba goes then they may struggle. Soton have money but still not sure about the manager. Will Lambert be as effective next year? Swansea could still lise Laudrup & this may mean a few of their better players leaving plus they have Europa League distraction too. WBA also fell away in second half of season & might not get Lukaku back. Could see them struggling too.

As for us, well if we werent City fans we would have us down as likely candidates for drop as struggled for goals and lack of star names. Hopefully we will surprise a few next year.

Much depends on the transfer window over the next 3 months.

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I understand how the odds vary once a book is underway, according to bets placed. But does anybody know how the initial book is determined i.e. before any bets are placed? Is it little more than the bookies putting an educated finger in the air and offering poor odds so they don''t get caught out?
We seem to start every season as one of the relegation favourites, even in the championship I recall, and it has not done us any harm possibly even takes a bit of pressure off. So I am, inclined to have a little chuckle and ignore it.

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[quote user="Sussexyellow"]I understand how the odds vary once a book is underway, according to bets placed. But does anybody know how the initial book is determined i.e. before any bets are placed? Is it little more than the bookies putting an educated finger in the air and offering poor odds so they don''t get caught out?


We seem to start every season as one of the relegation favourites, even in the championship I recall, and it has not done us any harm possibly even takes a bit of pressure off. So I am, inclined to have a little chuckle and ignore it.

[/quote]

I remember an excellent outline of how this works by Zak Burger, think it was on a thread about Wigan a few months back.  If I have time I''ll search and quote it here.

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Thanks ICF. Appreciated. Think this is the link below:
So likely to be based on a whole set of historical statistics, which to me suggests that once you are caught in a bracket (in our case relegation favourites) we are likely to be there for a while until we have put in enough (either results or Premier League finishes) to make a dent in the historical statistics. 
So I think we can look forward to this debate again in 12 months time.

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Yes, that''s the one, and as you say it will take time to overcome the bookies'' view.

 

I think though our first PL season under Lambert we started as the top relegation favouries, and this time last year we were 2nd or 3rd.  So being 4th this time is progress of a sort.

 

 

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