Goal Difference

[The Bristol Nest 516]

 

I always look at GD as an indicator of promotion or relegation..

We currently have the lowest GD in the top ten.

This could be one reason why we have prioritized  our defence and have attacked on the break, recently.

This is partly why yesterday was such a pleasure to watch imo.

How important do you think this could be at the end of the season?

 

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Edited January 21 by The Bristol Nest

[TIL 1010 4,750]

Goal difference didn't count for much when we finished 3rd in the PL back in 93.

[JonnyJonnyRowe 446]

3 hours ago, The Bristol Nest said:

I always look at GD as an indicator of promotion or relegation..

We currently have the lowest GD in the top ten.

Huddersfield had a negative goal difference in their promotion season under Wagner.

[Aggy 755]

Probably not going to be important in terms of we miss out by 1 goal, but I think goal difference (after a certain number of games) usually gives you an idea of where you’re likely to end up.

You can see the existing little “mini-leagues” based on goal difference - and at this stage of the season I think they’re a pretty good indicator. Preston being the only ones really where their points/position is massively different to their GD ranking.

I suspect us/ Hull/ Watford/ Sunderland will be finishing 7-10th in no particular order.

Edited January 21 by Aggy

[Midlands Yellow 3,995]

The top 6 are miles ahead of all other clubs on that score. Doesn’t mean everything but trumps xG. 

[Branston Pickle 3,661]

GD of +9 saw us into 6th (and Burnley into 7th) in 2002, it’s obviously handy to have as good a figure as possible…were we to end in the top 6 it would presumably largely take care of itself via us winning games.

[Capt. Pants 4,246]

Makes sod all difference. We can finish 6th then stink the place out with three 0-0s in the play-offs and go through on penalties.

[The Bristol Nest 516]

I think that it will make the difference. Hence the defensive approach.

[Mason 47 1,382]

Taken on it's own it looks like we will probably miss out. I think we most likely will.

However, if you snapshot the past 10 league games we've scored 14 & conceded 8- GD +6. The 10 previous to that we scored 15 but shipped a whopping 19, GD -4.

The first 8, scored 17 & conceded 16 for a GD of +1 (considered by many to be our best period, without the Plymouth aberration it would read 15:10)

Whilst things aren't rosy by any stretch of the imagination, we have improved markedly in goals conceded without too much of a hit on our GS column. Again, removing the Plymouth debacle (I know, I know, very easy to be selective) our current GD form is around as good on paper as it was in those opening games. 

Maybe we aren't as doomed as it seems.

[Nuff Said 5,145]

Surely the point is that our defence has tightened up significantly more recently?
 

At the start of the season, the philosophy seemed  to be to just score more than the opposition. More recently it was not to concede (Southampton) and now we seem to be finding a balance, which is how it ought to be?

If you look at the form table over the last four, six and eight games, our goal difference matches our position in the table. It’s a shame that earlier in the season we had some shocking results but things are improving it appears.

 

tl;dr: Looking at GD over the whole season so far gives a false impression.

Edited January 21 by Nuff Said

[S_81 802]

I don’t think it will make a difference as I still don’t think we’ll finish even 7th. 

[Making Plans 936]

The only GD that really matters is that you score at least one more goal than your opponents in every match

[DraytonBoy 152]

I would have said goal difference will be very important this season given how tight the race is for 5th and 6th.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

There are exceptions (most obviously the first promotion season under Farke when our defence was notoriously poor) but most of the time to win stuff it's a massive help to have a solid defence i.e. not gift the opposition goals.  We were poor on this last season and for most of this season.

 

If we can continue to tighten up, we've a decent chance of top 6.  The next game will be a good measure of where we're up to !

 

Also, if we can be better in this area for the 2nd half of the season, stats based on the whole season to date will become pretty irrelevant.... which won't stop people quoting them, obv.

[Capt. Pants 4,246]

Realistically, looking at the table,  we now have 7 teams going for 2 play-off places. WBA's defeat to us drags them back into the pack.

The likelihood of those 7 teams being separated by points alone must be very low?

Still enough games for us to get to a double figure GD but we can't afford any negative tankings either.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

I don't think goal difference is that useful.  A team that wins one game 4-0 and loses 4 1-0 has the same goal difference as one that draws 5 games, along with less points. It's the same number with a massively different story to tell.

It's a handy decider when there's a tie on points, but don't think it really tells you much.

Edited January 22 by littleyellowbirdie

[TheRock 171]

There is still plenty of football to be played.

18 matches left, we need to be winning at least 11 or 12 of those to get anywhere near 5th/6th place on roughly 77 points. I think that might be a strech given how inconsistently 'hot and cold' we have been this season under Wagner. 

Points-wise, mid to high seventies will nearly always achieve a play off spot. I think the highest watermark for 6th place was the season we won the Play-Offs under Alex Neil, pretty sure the record was set by Wolves when they missed out to 1p5wich on goal difference on around ~79 points?

Edited January 22 by TheRock