TheRock

The polls missed ever harder in 2020 than they did in 2016. Trump beat the polls in the swing states by an average of 2.3%, and all states nationally by 5%. That's probably what made his 2020 loss so sore, the fact that a combined ~40,000 over three states decided the election for Biden by less than half a percentage point in each. If Trump beats the current 2024 aggregate polling in Pennsylvania and/or Michigan given they are both currently pretty much a dead heat, the chances are that will Trump win the election.

Trump has historically beaten the polling quite significantly in 2016 and 2020. In 2020, Trump outperformed the polling in every single state apart from Georgia (-0.14%), Colorado (-1.5%) and Louisiana (-1.89%). The other swing states in 2020 had the following misses in Trump's favour: WI (7.4%), MI (3.1%), PA (2%), NV (1.9%), AZ (1.6%), NC (0.7%), If the polls are saying it's a tie and the same happens this time around, I hate to say it but Trump will be the likely winner. This is underpinned by the fact that there are now more registered Republicans than Democrats for the first time since Reagan's tenure as President (this isn't because Trump is hugely popular, more so some Democrats seem to be hesitant of Harris, compared to 2020 when there was more enthusiasm for Biden).

Trump very slight favourite again. It will interesting to see next weeks' polling given Israel's escalation, and the Hurricane recovery in the deep south.

12:30pm KO has zero consideration for the supporters. Making supporters travel to away matches for a 12:30 kick off will inevitably damage attendances in the long-term. It also ruins the experience for anyone who travels a fair distance from out of county into Norwich for the home matches, and for those who work on Saturday mornings (tradesman/shift workers/shopkeeps!). Early kick-offs are nothing but greed, again Sky TV continues to ruin football at every level.

Annoying isn't it, and can't really see how it is legal. Nevertheless it is another nail in the 'legacy media' coffin, as users will inevitably stop visiting their websites. Personally, on the rare occasion I want to read the daily news, I'll go down the corner shop and buy a newspaper.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Leadership_approval_polling Starmer has seen a -36% swing in his approval ratings since the riots started. The Winter Fuel Allowance vote follow-up will not help him at all, not just amongst affected pensioners, but those householders who will be p*1ssed off that Labour promised to cut all household fuel bills by £300 before the election, and has since recanted on that, with bills to increase for everyone. We could see Tories or Reform overtake them in the opinion polling before the end of the year.

Agreed, he's certaininly slowed down since 2016. I dont think America has had a naturally gifted orator at or near the helm in very a long time, that could find the middle ground with listeners using good vocabulary and wit, rather than rehearsed rhetoric, buzzwords and soundbites. Reagan, JFK and RFK Sr were by far some of the best at this. Unfortunately, Kamala is just as bad with her constant 'word salads' and drivel about 'being unburdened', choosing to avoid live or long-format interviews. There's a reason why a lot of undecided voters are holding their nose to vote for Trump as they know they were better off under his previous tenure, and thus the election is still a coin-flip.

https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1833683082488025142https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1833683082488025142https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1833683082488025142 😂😂

The only other thing that makes me wonder about the attacks is the fact that each floor of both towers was riddled with asbestos, evident with the fact of how many people have died in the years following the attacks due to respiratory problems caused by the inhalation of dust caused by the respective collapses. Larry Silverstein and the Port Authority were already anticipating an eye-wateringly expensive 'floor-by-floor rebuild' of each tower to rid the buildings of asbestos, prior to them being destroyed. Ironically, Larry Silverstein claims that he was meant to have a breakfast meeting in the North Tower restaurant on the 107th floor on the morning of 9/11, yet he had to cancel this as his wife made him a doctors appointment, thus evading certain death.

I always think that that the 1993 bombing was a massive foreshadow to 9/11, that was almost completely ignored. I recall seeing a documentry on the '93 bombing, which underscored the flawed architechture of the twin towers in the event of a disaster. Over 1,000 were hospitalised due to smoke inhalation as the towers had no AOVs and little meaningful ventilation systems for smoke to escape, coupled with the fact that smoke made it as high as the 100th floor through the elevator shafts. People were also injured in trying to escape in the stairwells which were blinded by smoke, causing crushes and stampedes. When the blueprints for the WTC were drawn, The Port Authority of NY & NJ circumvented American Building Regulations and only put in 3 stairwells in each tower, rather than six. As all three stairwells in the North Tower were severed by the Flight 11 crash, this is was caused 200+ people to be trapped above the impact zone, meaning nearly all of these people had to jump to their deaths from the North Tower, otherwise they would have died from asphyxiation or been burnt alive. The only "positive thing" with the 9/11 World Trade Centre attacks, that it is a miracle that the death toll in the Twin Towers was actually relatively low compared with the working occupancy of the buildings: when the Towers were at full capacity there could be as many as 25,000 people in each tower (50,000 people total). If the attack was later in the day (between 9:30am-5pm), lots more would have died.

The latest polling suggests the Electoral College vote could may well be a tie. The one vote in NE-2 could decide the winner. Imagine the scenes if it were a tie... 😂😂😂

Rumours flying about that RFK is trying to be kingmaker and is going to drop out and endorse Trump, in exchange for a place in Trump's cabinet. Trump has gone slight favourite with the bookies again. Expect his price to be slashed if/when RFK drops out and endorses Trump, prboably on Saturday to overshadow the noise from the DNC. So that's now Musk, RFK, Ramaswarmy likely to be in Republican cabinet should they win. Looking at the polls, this would be big if a majoirty of RJK voters switch to Trump in Georgia, Nevada and Arizona. But Trump would still need to win one of PA/MI/WI/MN to become president.

Social Media peaked at MSN messenger for me TBH. Since then, it has just turned into mud throwing, bickering and misinformation t1t-for-tat. I also think staying off Social Media vastly helps one's autonomy and mental health, and critical thinking abilities.

Tend to agree. I re-watched a lot of the Bond films over the last Christmas holiday. It's funny how Tomorrow Never Dies was a very average and cliche film when it released, but it has since aged well by foreshadowing many modern real life happenings: Toxicity and misuse of the internet, misinformation wars and creation of fake news, false flag attacks, flawed/hacked technology, Hong Kong/Taiwan/South China Sea disputes. I think Carver was orginally based on a hybrid of Robert Maxwell and ones of the Murdochs, the former underscored by the line of dialogue by M at the end of the film "Carver comitted suicide whilst holidaying on his yacht". Pretty sure that had hidden meaning refering to Maxwell.

Whether you like or loathe him, Musk is a strange character, with a mysterious and questionable long game. It's interesting to see that he has decided to exit California for Texas with his businesses, something which he was likely going to do anyway, but he has used it as political capitial against Newsom. He still also seems very interested in the UK, given he keeps wading in on Starmer.