Norwich City managers by win % (Championship only)

[The Bunny 310]

Comparing managers by overall win percentage is problematic, since the levels they managed at are usually different and cup matches also add noise. I was curious to see what an apples-to-apples comparison taking into account only the second tier would look like.

Unfortunately I couldn't find this info online so I scraped all the Championship/Div1 results since 2000-2001 (courtesy of wikipedia) into a huge spreadsheet and crunched them down. Hopefully I didn't Farke anything up... 

The end result is:

	P	W	D	L	Win %
Alex Neil	61	32	13	16	52.5%
Daniel Farke	139	71	39	29	51.1%
Alan Irvine	10	5	2	3	50.0%
Paul Lambert	46	23	15	8	50.0%
Nigel Worthington	236	115	50	71	48.7%
Neil Adams	24	10	7	7	41.7%
Dean Smith	25	10	5	10	40.0%
David Wagner	33	12	7	14	36.4%
Glenn Roeder	60	20	13	27	33.3%
Peter Grant	45	15	8	22	33.3%
Brian Gunn	19	5	5	9	26.3%

David Wagner sits between Glenn Roeder/Peter Grant and Dean Smith (and is closer to the former than the latter). Obviously there are other factors at play beyond those which a manager can influence (e.g atrocious recruitment in recent seasons), but that's a pretty damning record on the face of it. 

This was inspired by @By Hook or Ian crook's post on the subject, but I thought it deserved its own thread (if only because it took me way too long)

 

[shefcanary 2,410]

24 minutes ago, The Bunny said:

that's a pretty damning record on the face of it. 

Agreed.

[canarybubbles 1,923]

Thanks for working all this out. 

[hogesar 9,676]

BRING BACK DEAN SMITH

[NFN FC 1,123]

1 minute ago, hogesar said:

BRING BACK DEAN SMITH

I'd argue that Smith had a better squad. 

Still...Wagner out!

[cambridgeshire canary 6,735]

Smith was sacked when we were 5th.

 

God it would be nice to be 5th right now

[Capt. Pants 4,246]

Was Lambert really here only 46 games?

The point remains though. Wagner isn't the type of manager who can adjust and pull results out of adversity, either it works for him or it doesn't. His loss rate isn't good either.

Fine margins though, 3 more wins for Wagner and he would be heading to 50%.

Old Nigel Worthington bloody good wasn't he!

Edit - just seen Chump only

Edited October 26, 2023 by Capt. Pants

[The Bunny 310]

5 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Fine margins though, 3 more wins for Wagner and he would be heading to 50%.

Calling 41.6% "heading for 50%" seems generous to me 🙂 

[Capt. Pants 4,246]

1 minute ago, The Bunny said:

Calling 41.6% "heading for 50%" seems generous to me 🙂 

Haha, always round up.

Interesting thread by the way!

[nutty nigel 7,539]

17 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Was Lambert really here only 46 games?

The point remains though. Wagner isn't the type of manager who can adjust and pull results out of adversity, either it works for him or it doesn't. His loss rate isn't good either.

Fine margins though, 3 more wins for Wagner and he would be heading to 50%.

Old Nigel Worthington bloody good wasn't he!

Edit - just seen Chump only

But they're all champ only.

Worthy was good. Those stats over such a long time show it. A championship, a play-off final and never a finish below 10th. 

Yet he was the most hated...

[The Bunny 310]

1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

Worthy was good. Those stats over such a long time show it. A championship, a play-off final and never a finish below 10th. 

Yet he was the most hated...

Yeah, he had a solid record overall. What my numbers don't show is the downturn towards the end, but I don't think anyone could argue Peter Grant was an upgrade. 

[nutty nigel 7,539]

Plenty did at the time

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

6 hours ago, The Bunny said:

Comparing managers by overall win percentage is problematic, since the levels they managed at are usually different and cup matches also add noise. I was curious to see what an apples-to-apples comparison taking into account only the second tier would look like.

Unfortunately I couldn't find this info online so I scraped all the Championship/Div1 results since 2000-2001 (courtesy of wikipedia) into a huge spreadsheet and crunched them down. Hopefully I didn't Farke anything up... 

The end result is:

	P	W	D	L	Win %
Alex Neil	61	32	13	16	52.5%
Daniel Farke	139	71	39	29	51.1%
Alan Irvine	10	5	2	3	50.0%
Paul Lambert	46	23	15	8	50.0%
Nigel Worthington	236	115	50	71	48.7%
Neil Adams	24	10	7	7	41.7%
Dean Smith	25	10	5	10	40.0%
David Wagner	33	12	7	14	36.4%
Glenn Roeder	60	20	13	27	33.3%
Peter Grant	45	15	8	22	33.3%
Brian Gunn	19	5	5	9	26.3%

David Wagner sits between Glenn Roeder/Peter Grant and Dean Smith (and is closer to the former than the latter). Obviously there are other factors at play beyond those which a manager can influence (e.g atrocious recruitment in recent seasons), but that's a pretty damning record on the face of it. 

This was inspired by @By Hook or Ian crook's post on the subject, but I thought it deserved its own thread (if only because it took me way too long)

 

Thanks for taking my post and doing all this leg work. I would have done it myself but didn’t have the time. 
 

id say this looks a pretty damming reflection on Wagner so far. Shame as he seems a likeable guy something just isn’t clicking right now. 

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

A good manager will find a way to get results from what he has. Winning games may be harder, but not getting beaten can be achieved through industry and organisation if talent is wanting

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

7 hours ago, The Bunny said:

Comparing managers by overall win percentage is problematic, since the levels they managed at are usually different and cup matches also add noise. I was curious to see what an apples-to-apples comparison taking into account only the second tier would look like.

Unfortunately I couldn't find this info online so I scraped all the Championship/Div1 results since 2000-2001 (courtesy of wikipedia) into a huge spreadsheet and crunched them down. Hopefully I didn't Farke anything up... 

The end result is:

	P	W	D	L	Win %
Alex Neil	61	32	13	16	52.5%
Daniel Farke	139	71	39	29	51.1%
Alan Irvine	10	5	2	3	50.0%
Paul Lambert	46	23	15	8	50.0%
Nigel Worthington	236	115	50	71	48.7%
Neil Adams	24	10	7	7	41.7%
Dean Smith	25	10	5	10	40.0%
David Wagner	33	12	7	14	36.4%
Glenn Roeder	60	20	13	27	33.3%
Peter Grant	45	15	8	22	33.3%
Brian Gunn	19	5	5	9	26.3%

David Wagner sits between Glenn Roeder/Peter Grant and Dean Smith (and is closer to the former than the latter). Obviously there are other factors at play beyond those which a manager can influence (e.g atrocious recruitment in recent seasons), but that's a pretty damning record on the face of it. 

This was inspired by @By Hook or Ian crook's post on the subject, but I thought it deserved its own thread (if only because it took me way too long)

 

Nice work @bunny…good reference work. 

Pretty important to factor the loss ratio as well.

Not as difficult to have high win - high loss record. 

Farke High win, low loss record looks exceptional. High numbers of games played must also be factored large.

Parma 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[Monty13 2,235]

It’s a big enough sample size. There’s mitigation but the numbers speak for themselves. 

The issue is we are a mess, I think he should probably go based on performance, but terrible timing for a long term change.

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,286]

If you’re below Neil Adams, you’re in trouble. Or should be.

[Ulfotto 635]

How long before Dean Smith is re appraised ?

[nutty nigel 7,539]

I don't understand how all those managers who were clearly worse than Worthy got away so lightly with a lot of our fan base.

[The Bunny 310]

34 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Pretty important to factor the loss ratio as well.

Not as difficult to have high win - high loss record. 

That's a fair point. Probably points per game is the best overall metric, but people always seem to quote win % with managers. Here's the table sorted by p/g, with Lose% displayed too. Lambert and Farke are right up there, as you'd expect. Doesn't really affect the bottom of the table though...

	P	W	D	L	Win %	Lose %	Pts	Pts/game
Paul Lambert	46	23	15	8	50.0%	17.4%	84	1.83
Daniel Farke	139	71	39	29	51.1%	20.9%	252	1.81
Alex Neil	61	32	13	16	52.5%	26.2%	109	1.79
Alan Irvine	10	5	2	3	50.0%	30.0%	17	1.70
Nigel Worthington	236	115	50	71	48.7%	30.1%	395	1.67
Neil Adams	24	10	7	7	41.7%	29.2%	37	1.54
Dean Smith	25	10	5	10	40.0%	40.0%	35	1.40
David Wagner	33	12	7	14	36.4%	42.4%	43	1.30
Glenn Roeder	60	20	13	27	33.3%	45.0%	73	1.22
Peter Grant	45	15	8	22	33.3%	48.9%	53	1.18
Brian Gunn	19	5	5	9	26.3%	47.4%	20	1.05

[The Bunny 310]

4 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

I don't understand how all those managers who were clearly worse than Worthy got away so lightly with a lot of our fan base.

I don't know about you, but I want Alan Irvine back 😉

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

34 minutes ago, The Bunny said:

That's a fair point. Probably points per game is the best overall metric, but people always seem to quote win % with managers. Here's the table sorted by p/g, with Lose% displayed too. Lambert and Farke are right up there, as you'd expect. Doesn't really affect the bottom of the table though...

	P	W	D	L	Win %	Lose %	Pts	Pts/game
Paul Lambert	46	23	15	8	50.0%	17.4%	84	1.83
Daniel Farke	139	71	39	29	51.1%	20.9%	252	1.81
Alex Neil	61	32	13	16	52.5%	26.2%	109	1.79
Alan Irvine	10	5	2	3	50.0%	30.0%	17	1.70
Nigel Worthington	236	115	50	71	48.7%	30.1%	395	1.67
Neil Adams	24	10	7	7	41.7%	29.2%	37	1.54
Dean Smith	25	10	5	10	40.0%	40.0%	35	1.40
David Wagner	33	12	7	14	36.4%	42.4%	43	1.30
Glenn Roeder	60	20	13	27	33.3%	45.0%	73	1.22
Peter Grant	45	15	8	22	33.3%	48.9%	53	1.18
Brian Gunn	19	5	5	9	26.3%	47.4%	20	1.05

Beautiful. Now you’re really telling a good story.

Lambert was a Glasgow gambler throwing wonderful sixes and riding the comet, Farke had a clear method with deep positional play roots. 

One lived passionately for the moment, the other grew deep roots and shone a light into a future. 

I loved both - so much more than anything else I can remember - though if you had your last NCFC fiver you’d put it on Farke every time. 

Not just another manager I’m afraid. What a loss. 

Parma 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy
30% is 50% more losses than 20%

[Samwam27 527]

Bristol C have sacked their manager after winning one in five. I think Wagner has gone beyond his best before date!

[shefcanary 2,410]

1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

I don't understand how all those managers who were clearly worse than Worthy got away so lightly with a lot of our fan base.

I didn't think they did? Or maybe I was in the wrong echo chamber.

[The Bunny 310]

30 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Lambert was a Glasgow gambler throwing wonderful sixes and riding the comet, Farke had a clear method with deep positional play roots. 
One lived passionately for the moment, the other grew deep roots and shone a light into a future. 

I loved both - so much more than anything else I can remember - though if you had your last NCFC fiver you’d put it on Farke every time. 

Farke was great, but obviously if we did this exercise for the Premier League, the comparison wouldn't be close (and we could add Chris Hughton to the mix at that point too). Maybe Lambert's lower loss ratio in the champs gives us some clues at to why he was more successful at the level above. 

[nutty nigel 7,539]

6 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

I didn't think they did? Or maybe I was in the wrong echo chamber.

Probably never there to see a worthy out meeting at St Andrews Hall. Or the marches from the swimming pool on match day. Or the people badgering supporters with petitions at the turnstiles. Or D ick Balls regular Friday night column stoking up the fans. After it all died down at I think a nCIsA forum at the Lansdowne Hucks spoke about how difficult it was on match days in the dressing room with Worthy listening to all the chanting outside.

Has any of that happened to all those worse managers?

[shefcanary 2,410]

1 minute ago, nutty nigel said:

Probably never there to see a worthy out meeting at St Andrews Hall. Or the marches from the swimming pool on match day. Or the people badgering supporters with petitions at the turnstiles. Or D ick Balls regular Friday night column stoking up the fans. After it all died down at I think a nCIsA forum at the Lansdowne Hucks spoke about how difficult it was on match days in the dressing room with Worthy listening to all the chanting outside.

I remember all those other managers getting a lot of abuse as well. But probably because they weren't in post as long, things got sorted pretty quickly with the others.

[Ulfotto 635]

The amount of games Worthy was in charge for surprises me 3 seasons before promotion and one after yes but surprised how many more games there are.

Like most people who have done well for the football club in the smith & Jones era we were too loyal to him. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Ulfotto

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

21 minutes ago, The Bunny said:

Farke was great, but obviously if we did this exercise for the Premier League, the comparison wouldn't be close (and we could add Chris Hughton to the mix at that point too). Maybe Lambert's lower loss ratio in the champs gives us some clues at to why he was more successful at the level above. 

I wrote a Masterclass at the time that stated that views of Hughton would be revised and reviewed and that ‘history will treat him kinder than he is now’ or words to that effect. 

He recognised long before many of the fan base that extreme tactics were required to beat the considerable odds to survival in the top tier (which have become significantly longer since). 

Preparing highly routinised defensive structures are a pre-requisite for bottom half Premier Clubs. 

Despite the Sky rhetoric, survival is an unattractive, purgatorial, repetitive, defensive grind for many. Learning how not to get beaten. 

To add to your stats I have referenced many times on Masterclasses that surviving nevertheless entails not winning around 28 games out of 38. A frightening reality that requires quite an extreme approach if recognised and absorbed. 
 

Farke’s way had the roots of a Man City reserves - and the clear pathway to nurturing some of their players not ready for their first team, yet still excellent - and the tantalizing possibility of progress that other clubs have to tread through treacle and spend fortunes to endure. 

Within football we were considered on a good path. Our lack of finance hamstring us considerably and forced us into acts of sporting self-injury that disrupted hard-won momentum. 

These stats will stand the test of time. 

Parma 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[nutty nigel 7,539]

5 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

I remember all those other managers getting a lot of abuse as well. But probably because they weren't in post as long, things got sorted pretty quickly with the others.

Come on Sheff. None of the things I posted happened to those other managers. Closest was the EEN asking if Smith would last longer than a mushroom. 

Are you talking about message board abuse? That got pretty bad with all of them but none of the other stuff happened. 

I honestly don't understand where all the Worthy hate came from.