Independence

[KiwiScot 1,489]

This Thursday the 5th of October. It's on like donkey kong. Can the SNPs strong grasp on Scotland be dented and give Labour some false hope north of the border? Amongst 14 candidates are Michael Shanks for Labour and Katy Loudon for the SNP. SNP majority from 2019, 5,230. 8,000 people voted Tory last time as well. If they turn up who will they go with?

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by KiwiScot

[Herman 9,842]

Who do you think has the best chance? Are people as disgruntled with the SNP as we hear down here or is it a bit more calmer?

The Indy thread is probably a fair few pages down. Nope,it does look like it has been pulled.

 

Edited October 1, 2023 by Herman

[KiwiScot 1,489]

13 minutes ago, Herman said:

Who do you think has the best chance? Are people as disgruntled with the SNP as we hear down here or is it a bit more calmer?

The Indy thread is probably a fair few pages down. Nope,it does look like it has been pulled.

Probably leaning to Labour, but impossible to call for the simple reason that Scotland votes SNP and while they are disgruntled with the SNP they are not with independence. For example the Alba party is not standing so they don't split the vote as grass roots are starting to question the SNPs independence credentials and recent scandal. They are not much more happy with "Blue" Labour, but they have a chance purely because of circumstances recently and that Scotland used to vote Labour. Also the seat itself is up for grabs due to an issue going all the way back to covid so the local area will have a point to make. Having looked at the results from 2019 to me it looks like turnout is key(especially for SNP) and that Tory/Lib Dem votes transfer to labour and not get diluted by the multiple number of candidates.

[Yellow Fever 3,844]

Can't help but think this is Labour's to lose.

The electorate will have not forgiven the SNP about the previous MP and the more recent SNP 'issues'. There's a punishment coming.

The obvious alternative is Labour and for the Tory voters too to equally punish this appalling government. The election is a lightning rod.

All the stars are finally aligning for Sarwar.

 

 

[KiwiScot 1,489]

Nearby Labour council with large budget hole just u-turned on closing down most of the areas leisure centres and more. Something they'd just announced too. Then pointing the finger at SNP funding, who point the finger at Westminster funding. Labour trick?

Edited October 3, 2023 by KiwiScot

[Yellow Fever 3,844]

Polls close. Labour confident. We shall see ....

[KiwiScot 1,489]

I've got a fear of how the Greens will do with one eye on the next Holyrood election.

[Well b back 3,285]

Beginning to look like a big Labour win, according to the experts

[Well b back 3,285]

Experts also saying looks like Conservatives may lose their deposit.

[Herman 9,842]

Hammered.

 

[dylanisabaddog 5,032]

34 minutes ago, Herman said:

Hammered.

 

Conservatives and Lib Dems lost their deposit! 

[KiwiScot 1,489]

Comparing 2019 and 2023 it's hard to tell as you'd expect as it's a by-election, but Labour held their vote while not beating the SNPs previous amount as the Tories and SNP vote disappeared.

[A Load of Squit 5,224]

It's the right wing media (especially the Sc*m & the Daily Heil) wot won it for Labour.

Sturgeon was the SNP's glue, without her they're falling apart, winning seats in Scotland will put SKS in no. 10.

We owe a debt of gratitude to Murdoch & Rothermere.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Less than 4 in 10 eligible voters bothered.

[TheRock 171]

5 hours ago, KiwiScot said:

Comparing 2019 and 2023 it's hard to tell as you'd expect as it's a by-election, but Labour held their vote while not beating the SNPs previous amount as the Tories and SNP vote disappeared.

2019 GE turnout: 66%

2023 By-election turnout: 37%

 

Seems that locally most ditched the SNP due to the previous MP. But in the grand scheme of things, hard to compare to 2019 as most voters stayed at home.

[TheGunnShow 6,029]

42 minutes ago, TheRock said:

2019 GE turnout: 66%

2023 By-election turnout: 37%

 

Seems that locally most ditched the SNP due to the previous MP. But in the grand scheme of things, hard to compare to 2019 as most voters stayed at home.

Comparing by-election and General Election turnout is real "apples and pears" territory in the comparison.

[horsefly 4,318]

Turnouts in bye-elections are always well below the numbers who vote in general elections. However there were still very significant numbers of votes cast, providing plenty of evidence for serious psephology. The most relevant points in my own humble opinion are two. First, the SNP lost badly. Second, not only did Labour harvest the votes of ex-SNP voters, but also votes from the Tories who gained absolutely nothing from the SNP's fall from grace. That suggests it is only Labour who will benefit from the decline in SNP support, putting them in a very healthy position to garner a healthy majority at the next general election.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,605]

39 minutes ago, TheDarkKnight said:

Well, I'm one of the ones who turned out.

Sadly, people here are fine with being controlled by the Red Tories.

All the Labour voters should be sent a nice framed photograph of King Charles. So they can give it a wee kiss each night before bed.

Well, I'm a unionist, and I like King Charles, but I'm team SNP for this one. 😄

Edited October 6, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[cambridgeshire canary 6,836]

SNP in the mud is always a funny thing to see. It's clear that Sturgeon was the glue holding them together. Becoming obvious that it will be a big challenge for them without her.

Maybe Humza you would have won if Scotland was less white like you want it to be?

Edited October 6, 2023 by cambridgeshire canary

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

7 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Conservatives and Lib Dems lost their deposit! 

and the majority of voters could not be bothered, 37.2% of eligible voters were taken in by 14 different candidates and splin(t)ter groups. By election usually attract 50-60% of eligible voters.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

TURNOUT IS NOW CONFIRMED AT 37%. This compares with a Parliamentary By Election average of 50.2%. So very low!

Results breakdown

The results are in. A total of 30,531 votes were cast. 

Here's a breakdown of how many votes each candidate secured: 

• Gloria Adebo (Scottish Liberal Democrats) - 895 
• Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) - 271 
• Garry Cooke (Independent) - 6 
• Andrew Daly (Independent) - 81
• Cameron Eadie (Scottish Greens) - 601 
• Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India - 34 
• Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) - 319 
• Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) - 46 
• Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservatives) - 1,192 
• Katy Loudon (SNP) - 8,399 
• Chris Sermanni (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) - 178 
• Michael Shanks (Scottish Labour) - 17,845 
• David Stark (Reform UK) - 403 
• Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) - 207

[Yellow Fever 3,844]

2 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

TURNOUT IS NOW CONFIRMED AT 37%. This compares with a Parliamentary By Election average of 50.2%. So very low!

Results breakdown

The results are in. A total of 30,531 votes were cast. 

Here's a breakdown of how many votes each candidate secured: 

• Gloria Adebo (Scottish Liberal Democrats) - 895 
• Bill Bonnar (Scottish Socialist Party) - 271 
• Garry Cooke (Independent) - 6 
• Andrew Daly (Independent) - 81
• Cameron Eadie (Scottish Greens) - 601 
• Prince Ankit Love, Emperor of India - 34 
• Niall Fraser (Scottish Family Party) - 319 
• Ewan Hoyle (Volt UK) - 46 
• Thomas Kerr (Scottish Conservatives) - 1,192 
• Katy Loudon (SNP) - 8,399 
• Chris Sermanni (Scottish Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) - 178 
• Michael Shanks (Scottish Labour) - 17,845 
• David Stark (Reform UK) - 403 
• Colette Walker (Independence for Scotland Party) - 207

Didn't Craig get ANY votes?

[king canary 7,681]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Didn't Craig get ANY votes?

50 write ins, all in crayon.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,605]

2 hours ago, TheDarkKnight said:

Last time I looked Katy Loudon was white.

Is that really a road that you want to go down? What with a right wing party in charge?

Did Mr Sunak get voted in by the public?

I'll make a wager with anyone that Starmer's Labour will beat Rishi Sunak's Conservatives.

It'll not be about politics.

I must say, I'm really disappointed about it. I have a lot of time for Sunak. It's really very disappointing that so many people can't see past skin colour.

Mind you, I think the SNP leader is suffering from the same problem.

[king canary 7,681]

8 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I must say, I'm really disappointed about it. I have a lot of time for Sunak. It's really very disappointing that so many people can't see past skin colour.

Mind you, I think the SNP leader is suffering from the same problem.

Are we really going with the argument that the reason Sunak isn't winning is racism? Really?

[Nuff Said 5,191]

11 hours ago, TheDarkKnight said:

.Says all you have to know. England will never vote in a non white PM and USA won't vote for a Woman President.

But the US voted for a Black president and the UK has had three female PMs? So we’re racist and they are misogynists? That’s a stretch.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

7 minutes ago, TheDarkKnight said:

Yes.

I'll be delighted to see USA vote a woman into the White House and a non white person being PM.

I don't think it'll happen, though.

 

I would be quite happy for Michelle Obama to stand and I think she would waltz in. But she doesn't want to at the moment.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,605]

On 07/10/2023 at 08:45, king canary said:

Are we really going with the argument that a the reason Sunak isn't winning is racism? Really?

You were very close to asking the right question there, as there's definitely not much to suggest Sunak could have won over the Conservative membership in a final ballot against anybody, hence the MPs arranged a coronation to bypass that step and ensure he got the job. So, yes, I do think racism is contributing to his unpopularity as it is in the case of the SNP leader, Humza Yousaf. Indeed, the recent Labour win in Scotland against the SNP looked like a combination of an incredible degree of tactical voting against the SNP coupled with indifference of erstwhile SNP voters.

Edited October 8, 2023 by littleyellowbirdie

[KiwiScot 1,489]

On 08/10/2023 at 20:36, littleyellowbirdie said:

 an incredible degree of tactical voting

I'm not convinced this was anything near a large amount of that and I'd call it simply voting in a swing seat where the sitting MP was scandal hit for a party with a dip in popularity. People arn't stuck to their previous votes/parties and also around 2,000 votes went to the multitude of smaller parties standing as well who are not normally around. Labour also ran a good campaign on the ground.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

On 06/10/2023 at 16:52, Yellow Fever said:

Didn't Craig get ANY votes?

why would anyone be so daft and waste good money to join this merry gang, who attracted a third of eligible voters?