The cost of injuries

[hogesar 10,773]

Fully aware people want their pound of flesh, so this thread is likely to be hugely inconvenient to many, however...

I'm not sure there's a squad in this division that wouldn't be significantly impacted by losing your 2 best and most experienced CBs, your most experienced midfielder, your best CAM all at the same time. It would be silly to argue otherwise..championship squads can't cope with that loss especially when it's only furthered by having wingers out injured etc too.

Under Wagner, our results with Dowell, McLean and Hanley are 4 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw. One of the defeats being Burnley. Basically 1.9ppg.

In fact the same under Smith is 9 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats. That's 1.8ppg.

Essentially with Dowell, McLean and Hanley all fit both managers have been capable of getting us on track for about 80 points this season.

Obviously we haven't strengthened well enough. I'm loathe to judge Nunez too hard as he's been in and out with injury himself but having lost Cantwell and then Dowell to injury...we've not had a natural replacement. 

To say those injuries haven't severely impacted the ability for us to compete simply isn't true. It's not convenient, I get that. And I don't think Wagner has shown too much himself with making this squad at least do something against the poorer teams with our injuries. But the injuries are significant.

[Indy 3,477]

28 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Fully aware people want their pound of flesh, so this thread is likely to be hugely inconvenient to many, however...

I'm not sure there's a squad in this division that wouldn't be significantly impacted by losing your 2 best and most experienced CBs, your most experienced midfielder, your best CAM all at the same time. It would be silly to argue otherwise..championship squads can't cope with that loss especially when it's only furthered by having wingers out injured etc too.

Under Wagner, our results with Dowell, McLean and Hanley are 4 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw. One of the defeats being Burnley. Basically 1.9ppg.

In fact the same under Smith is 9 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats. That's 1.8ppg.

Essentially with Dowell, McLean and Hanley all fit both managers have been capable of getting us on track for about 80 points this season.

Obviously we haven't strengthened well enough. I'm loathe to judge Nunez too hard as he's been in and out with injury himself but having lost Cantwell and then Dowell to injury...we've not had a natural replacement. 

To say those injuries haven't severely impacted the ability for us to compete simply isn't true. It's not convenient, I get that. And I don't think Wagner has shown too much himself with making this squad at least do something against the poorer teams with our injuries. But the injuries are significant.

The same old excuses by the same people, every club has injuries, every club has challenges but we can only look at our own, as you say recruitment was terrible, replacement managers have been awful, and to be honest even with those injured players this squad looks devoid of playing decent football, all of them low on confidence and shot. Unfortunately the fans have lost faith in them and the set up and with minimal funds this summer the better players will need to be sold.

Sometimes things come to an end and this board and its set up needs to change, Webber needs to be removed from player recruitment and let Adams focus on that longside Wagner. Webber wants to focus on other things fine let Adams take the lead in the recruitment team a he did assemble a very decent squad for peanuts while he was in charge, just needed Lambert to get the best out of them.

Sorry Hog but the same old injury excuse has been used every relegation, reality is recruitment has been terrible.

[Mello Yello 2,573]

HoxGesar....oh yeah....

[The Real Buh 3,765]

5 more games…

[Unthink road 158]

40 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Fully aware people want their pound of flesh, so this thread is likely to be hugely inconvenient to many, however...

I'm not sure there's a squad in this division that wouldn't be significantly impacted by losing your 2 best and most experienced CBs, your most experienced midfielder, your best CAM all at the same time. It would be silly to argue otherwise..championship squads can't cope with that loss especially when it's only furthered by having wingers out injured etc too.

Under Wagner, our results with Dowell, McLean and Hanley are 4 wins, 2 defeats and 1 draw. One of the defeats being Burnley. Basically 1.9ppg.

In fact the same under Smith is 9 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats. That's 1.8ppg.

Essentially with Dowell, McLean and Hanley all fit both managers have been capable of getting us on track for about 80 points this season.

Obviously we haven't strengthened well enough. I'm loathe to judge Nunez too hard as he's been in and out with injury himself but having lost Cantwell and then Dowell to injury...we've not had a natural replacement. 

To say those injuries haven't severely impacted the ability for us to compete simply isn't true. It's not convenient, I get that. And I don't think Wagner has shown too much himself with making this squad at least do something against the poorer teams with our injuries. But the injuries are significant.

I agree to a point. Those players would make a stronger 11. Also the formation hasn't got the best out of better players earlier in the season. I think most would have hoped with a couple of seasons in the top flight, our squad would be stronger overall. Hopefully, whoever is running the club on the pitch realises a different approach is required. 

[hogesar 10,773]

14 minutes ago, Indy said:

The same old excuses by the same people, every club has injuries, every club has challenges but we can only look at our own, as you say recruitment was terrible, replacement managers have been awful, and to be honest even with those injured players this squad looks devoid of playing decent football, all of them low on confidence and shot. Unfortunately the fans have lost faith in them and the set up and with minimal funds this summer the better players will need to be sold.

Sometimes things come to an end and this board and its set up needs to change, Webber needs to be removed from player recruitment and let Adams focus on that longside Wagner. Webber wants to focus on other things fine let Adams take the lead in the recruitment team a he did assemble a very decent squad for peanuts while he was in charge, just needed Lambert to get the best out of them.

Sorry Hog but the same old injury excuse has been used every relegation, reality is recruitment has been terrible.

Yeah of course, every club gets injuries. I can't, albeit only with a brief look, found another club at this level who lost their two main CBs and their most experienced midfielder for a run of games. Let alone also losing two other midfielders and a winger at the same time. So there's not really a comparison to make to anyone else right now.

There's a multitude of other factors (managerial change, squad assembly, fan apathy, player mentality, depth of squad built) that are all factors but for me it would be completely biased to simply ignore that injuries can play key roles in teams seasons.

For example, look at Manchester United since losing their CB. If their form can be significantly impacted by the loss of one player then its fair to say Norwich can be significantly impacted by the loss of 3 - 5!

[king canary 8,763]

Repeat after me, correlation is not causation.

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,797]

Of course we missed Hanley and Kenny. Gibson is better CB than Lungi. 
 

That is obvious. 
 

But it doesn’t explain the performance of the front players, the midfield , the atmosphere , the general malaise at the club. 
 

[Robert N. LiM 6,303]

It seems self-evident to me that the three injuries to Kenny, Gibbo and Grant in particular really cost us.

I guess the bigger-picture question is whether those injuries obscure the more serious underlying issues, or whether they actually benefit us in the long run, by leading to a clearly unacceptable finishing position this season that leads to meaningful change.

 

[Branston Pickle 4,152]

It’s true that we have had some poor luck with injuries, and I agree to a point, but all sides have to cope with them.  I was pointing out that at times we had up to 11 potential first teamers missing in the autumn. but that was more related to performance levels as a side than results per se. 

I am struggling with the current injury excuse because fundamentally two cbs being out should not see such a poor defence (particularly as Gibson wasn’t often first choice), and it feels a self-made issue when you’ve let one of your main back-ups go out on loan (preferring to have the option of playing someone out of position instead).  We seem to have had issues in defence for 5-6 seasons - imo we have been light in cb numbers pretty much every season under Webber, always having a crisis in defence that we could all see coming.  

 

[hogesar 10,773]

3 minutes ago, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Of course we missed Hanley and Kenny. Gibson is better CB than Lungi. 
 

That is obvious. 
 

But it doesn’t explain the performance of the front players, the midfield , the atmosphere , the general malaise at the club. 
 

I agree with all that. It's more a defence of Wagner who I've been critical of recently- it doesn't explain the overall club picture but it does explain this very recent run.

[hogesar 10,773]

2 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

It seems self-evident to me that the three injuries to Kenny, Gibbo and Grant in particular really cost us.

I guess the bigger-picture question is whether those injuries obscure the more serious underlying issues, or whether they actually benefit us in the long run, by leading to a clearly unacceptable finishing position this season that leads to meaningful change.

 

I think there's a reality that the much derided Kenny Hanley and Gibbo and Dowell actually covered for some fundamental squad failings as our results without them show.

 

[king canary 8,763]

3 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I think there's a reality that the much derided Kenny Hanley and Gibbo and Dowell actually covered for some fundamental squad failings as our results without them show.

 

Dowell is not much derided.

Seriously your attempt to build a narrative here is staggeringly transparent. 

[The Real Buh 3,765]

When you are reliant on the level of players that are out you are in trouble

theres a quality issue that runs straight through the squad and it’s Stuart Webbers responsibility 

And that’s why he should go, he can pout about it all he likes and do another interview saying he can take it on the chin and whatever, but the fact is he’s incompetent.

Anyone else would get sacked for this failure. It’s such a classic Norwich thing that we give people way more time and way more benefit of the doubt. It’s pathetic.

Edited April 23, 2023 by The Real Buh

[S_81 1,107]

God this is desperate. It’s not the injuries in this instance, it’s that the squad is poor - due to Webber. 

[Indy 3,477]

6 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

It’s true that we have had some poor luck with injuries, and I agree to a point, but all sides have to cope with them.  I was pointing out that at times we had up to 11 potential first teamers missing in the autumn. but that was more related to performance levels as a side than results per se. 

I am struggling with the current injury excuse because fundamentally two cbs being out should not see such a poor defence (particularly as Gibson wasn’t often first choice), and it feels a self-made issue when you’ve let one of your main back-ups go out on loan (preferring to have the option of playing someone out of position instead).  We seem to have had issues in defence for 5-6 seasons - imo we have been light in cb numbers pretty much every season under Webber, always having a crisis in defence that we could all see coming.  

 

Absolutely true BP, this issue has been with us for a long time. We might miss these players but we really shouldn't.....but injury aside we've struggled all season to compete, its not why we haven't made the playoffs. I will point out the one team who were relegated and pissing this league, made the most changes to their squad, maybe the got rid off those who weren't in the mindset for a championship season after relegation.

[Samwam27 606]

I think the question is strength in depth. For all the arguments about Hanley & Gibson, with both injured we look seriously weak in defence with Omo & Sorenson.

Werner doesn't seem ready, and Tompkinson, who did play well in his appearances was shipped out.

We have both Gian & Macallum but neither have looked strong in that LB position all seasons, 

And whilst Sara (& perhaps Gibbs) have been the few highlights, without Mclean again we've looked seriously weak in midfield once again 

[S_81 1,107]

1 minute ago, Samwam27 said:

I think the question is strength in depth. For all the arguments about Hanley & Gibson, with both injured we look seriously weak in defence with Omo & Sorenson.

Werner doesn't seem ready, and Tompkinson, who did play well in his appearances was shipped out.

We have both Gian & Macallum but neither have looked strong in that LB position all seasons, 

And whilst Sara (& perhaps Gibbs) have been the few highlights, without Mclean again we've looked seriously weak in midfield once again 

The question is why we don’t have better than Hanley and Gibson. Both are poor players at this level , yet alone Prem. 

[Robert N. LiM 6,303]

9 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I think there's a reality that the much derided Kenny Hanley and Gibbo and Dowell actually covered for some fundamental squad failings as our results without them show.

 

Yes, I think that's the point I was clumsily making. It might give Wagner a bit of an excuse (though I do think he's made some odd decisions recently) but in doing so it exposes Webber.

 

[king canary 8,763]

Just to add I'm calling **** on these stats. You claim under Smith with Dowell, McLean and Hanley in the team we won 9, drew 5, lost 4, a total of 18 games. Dowell only started 8 games under Smith. So this formula relies on giving him credit for his sub appearences including his 5 minutes v Bristol and his 18 minutes v Coventry?

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,960]

1 hour ago, hogesar said:

Fully aware people want their pound of flesh, so this thread is likely to be hugely inconvenient to many, however...

I'm not sure there's a squad in this division that wouldn't be significantly impacted by losing your 2 best and most experienced CBs, your most experienced midfielder, your best CAM all at the same time. It would be silly to argue otherwise..championship squads can't cope with that loss especially when it's only furthered by having wingers out injured etc too.

The form/performance of the team had started to dip well before the injuries to our CBs and Kenny.

The injuries are no doubt a factor in recent games, absolutely, but there is so much more to the story than that; it's incredibly simplistic to think that without the injuries everything would be rosy.

Why have we only got 3 dedicated CBs again? Why do we still not have a first 11 standard DM, even after we became aware of Hayden's injury issues? Why are our team as fragile as glass? Where are the leaders? etc etc etc. I could go on. Endless questions.

1 hour ago, hogesar said:

To say those injuries haven't severely impacted the ability for us to compete simply isn't true. It's not convenient, I get that.

Who has said that? Where? 

OTBC

[Samwam27 606]

1 minute ago, S_81 said:

The question is why we don’t have better than Hanley and Gibson. Both are poor players at this level , yet alone Prem. 

agreed and we've had both for several seasons, without any attempt the improve upon them, other than looking at youth and hoping they'll come through. Especially when you look at how many goals we've leaked the last 4 /5 seasons.

 

[PurpleCanary 6,391]

To take this forward, the summer recruitment needs to produce a solid spine to the starting eleven/squad. So a new at least top-six-Championship central defender, a ditto defensive central midfielder, and a new top-two new (even potentially lower Premier League) central striiker. These acquisitions seem to me crucial pretty much whatever tactical formation we want to employ.

[Danke bitte 1,155]

5 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

The form/performance of the team had started to dip well before the injuries to our CBs and Kenny.

The injuries are no doubt a factor in recent games, absolutely, but there is so much more to the story than that; it's incredibly simplistic to think that without the injuries everything would be rosy.

Why have we only got 3 dedicated CBs again? Why do we still not have a first 11 standard DM, even after we became aware of Hayden's injury issues? Why are our team as fragile as glass? Where are the leaders? etc etc etc. I could go on. Endless questions.

Who has said that? Where? 

OTBC

Wow. Never have I read a post from you this serious! This makes me more worried more than anything else… when DDJ’s head’s gone what the fcuk is going on?!

[hogesar 10,773]

8 minutes ago, king canary said:

Just to add I'm calling **** on these stats. You claim under Smith with Dowell, McLean and Hanley in the team we won 9, drew 5, lost 4, a total of 18 games. Dowell only started 8 games under Smith. So this formula relies on giving him credit for his sub appearences including his 5 minutes v Bristol and his 18 minutes v Coventry?

I didnt have time to separate them all out but ot was the concept of having a relatively injury free squad and those players generally in those fixtures being mainstays. 

[Indy 3,477]

3 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

To take this forward, the summer recruitment needs to produce a solid spine to the starting eleven/squad. So a new at least top-six-Championship central defender, a ditto defensive central midfielder, and a new top-two new (even potentially lower Premier League) central striiker. These acquisitions seem to me crucial pretty much whatever tactical formation we want to employ.

Where's the money for this Purple? I believe we've already spent the Parachute money?

I believe that what we have is pretty much what will be this summer, we might see a couple sales and probably reliant on youth and loan for next season.

[Samwam27 606]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

Where's the money for this Purple? I believe we've already spent the Parachute money?

I believe that what we have is pretty much what will be this summer, we might see a couple sales and probably reliant on youth and loan for next season.

The money will be there and they'll have budgeted for it. Hoping we sell Rashica-that's the obvious one and we wouldn't miss him.

I could see Aarons, Gian and maybe even Tzolis going to raise further funds. Also to be seen if anyone fancies Sara

Could be a crazy summer  

[king canary 8,763]

8 minutes ago, hogesar said:

I didnt have time to separate them all out but ot was the concept of having a relatively injury free squad and those players generally in those fixtures being mainstays. 

Dowell wasn't a mainstay under Smith though. 8 starts is not a key player. In fact most of the talk about Dowell was how he was becoming key under Wagner for a short spell.

[PurpleCanary 6,391]

10 minutes ago, Indy said:

Where's the money for this Purple? I believe we've already spent the Parachute money?

I believe that what we have is pretty much what will be this summer, we might see a couple sales and probably reliant on youth and loan for next season.

I believe there will be money for decent acquisitions.* I regard a new central striker as paramount, because I don't see either Sargent or Idah as even top-six Championship level. So that position might be expensive, but within what we will have to spend. That apart, yes, it will need Webber and the scouting team to find some gems at lowish prices, and/or to repeat Skipp-like success in the loan market. This summer will be Webber's last chance, and he presumably knows that.

*See Samwam27's post.

Edited April 23, 2023 by PurpleCanary

[king canary 8,763]

1 minute ago, PurpleCanary said:

I believe there will be money for decent acquisitions. I regard a new central striker as paramount, because I don't see either Sargent or Idah as even top-six Championship level. So that position might be expensive, but within what we will have to spend. That apart, yes, it will need Webber and the scouting team to find some gems at lowish prices, and/or to repeat Skipp-like success in the loan market. This summer will be Webber's last chance, and he presumably knows that.

If we start from the assumption that all money has to come from player sales then I do think we can raise a solid budget- Rashica will reportedly go for £7m, Aarons will leave and I'd expect about £10m there. If Sara goes for £15m + then it's an extensive rebuild but £30m odd can stretch far in this division.