So is Putin going to invade Ukraine anytime soon or..?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Shapps accused of being part of a Government that has done so badly in allowing Ukranians to stay in the UK for the foreseeable future.

He rolls out the usual we have done more for the refugees than any other nation. We just sent money but Poland can sort it out. Then he says he spoke to Zelensky who says he doesn't want Ukranians straying too far from home. The interviewer then points out that Ireland has already taken 2000.

[Indy 3,352]

I hope that the fight in Russia is subsiding now that they haven’t had the lightning win they thought, the massive financial implications on them and the number of companies who are the norm now gone in a week!

I don’t hate the Russians, the vast majority are normal human beings living the best that they can under a repressive government who have no right to be there. I do hope that something of a deal can be reached, fighting stops before more of a beautiful country is destroyed. I’m finding it hard to believe that more top rich Russians haven’t yet applied full pressure on their government, I still think given a few more weeks there will be a change in Russia! They’ve had a taste of the West and wealth they’re not going to want to go back to old draconian ways!

Edited March 9, 2022 by Indy

[ricardo 7,448]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

I hope that the fight in Russia is subsiding now that they haven’t had the lightning win they thought, the massive financial implications on them and the number of companies who are the norm now gone in a week!

I don’t hate the Russians, the vast majority are normal human beings living the best that they can under a repressive government who have no right to be there. I do hope that something of a deal can be reached, fighting stops before more of a beautiful country is destroyed. I’m finding it hard to believe that more top rich Russians haven’t yet applied full pressure on their government, I still think given a few more weeks there will be a change in Russia! They’ve had a taste of the West and wealth they’re not going to want to go back to old draconian ways!

Russia is retreating into its Stalinist past and I fear It will grind Ukraine down without any thought for casualties. Hopefully the hot war will not escalate but the cold war is back with a bang and we will all be poorer because if it. Sorry to be so downbear but I can see no upside to this.

[Indy 3,352]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Russia is retreating into its Stalinist past and I fear It will grind Ukraine down without any thought for casualties. Hopefully the hot war will not escalate but the cold war is back with a bang and we will all be poorer because if it. Sorry to be so downbear but I can see no upside to this.

Maybe, but I’m not so sure, the Russians are an integral part of our society, I’m not sure they want to go backwards and there’s talk that things are fragmenting in his high council, pressure by rich and powerful Russians and companies. He might think he’s bulletproof but time will tell.

[It's Character Forming 1,167]

Interesting article in the Economist on the lack of air superiority by Russia. Basically they’ve failed to take out the Ukraine air defences and the supplies of stinger missiles means they have a problem- fly high and you’re a target for the SAMs and bombing is inaccurate, fly low to evade them and you’re in range of the Stingers.

 

Also they’re now not using many precision guided weapons- the guess is they don’t want to run down their stocks too much. In past wars eg the 91 Gulf war it was found that stocks of PGMs in peacetime are never enough.

 

Hence pictures are being seen of some of the Russian top jets armed with dumb bombs, which puts them at much higher risk of being shot down as they need to get closer to the target. The Air Force can’t be happy about this.

 

All in all it’s going really badly for the Russians, the question is whether there can be a face saving way out for Putin, or could there be a coup d’etat? The latter is looking increasingly likely to me.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, ricardo said:

Russia is retreating into its Stalinist past and I fear It will grind Ukraine down without any thought for casualties. Hopefully the hot war will not escalate but the cold war is back with a bang and we will all be poorer because if it. Sorry to be so downbear but I can see no upside to this.

Of course many won't really know what the Cold War was like.

The only reason I think it will be nowhere as bad is the major influence that China has in the World now. The Five Stars has the economic influence that Russia no longer has.

[kirku 1,339]

12 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Hence pictures are being seen of some of the Russian top jets armed with dumb bombs, which puts them at much higher risk of being shot down as they need to get closer to the target. The Air Force can’t be happy about this.

They've already lost 4-5 SU-34s, I think, and that's their top line strike fighter - for exactly this reason.

One of the pilots (who looks about 20 stone..) ejected and was captured. The reason it was notable is that he was part of a promo photoshoot for the Russian bombardment of Syrian cities alongside both Putin and Assad. I hope Ukraine send him straight to The Hague.

There's also a huge disparity in the training that Russian pilots get in comparison to NATO. Low flying hours, training in pairs instead of large formation, lack of advanced simulator training. Some analysts have started to question whether the VKS is capable of complex air operations. Then you add in their inability to impose SEAD...

Edited March 10, 2022 by kirku

[kirku 1,339]

16 hours ago, ricardo said:

Russia is retreating into its Stalinist past and I fear It will grind Ukraine down without any thought for casualties. Hopefully the hot war will not escalate but the cold war is back with a bang and we will all be poorer because if it. Sorry to be so downbear but I can see no upside to this.

Agree. Cold War 2.0 is probably the best outcome - the others are much much worse

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

We are now entering La La land ....

Anybody with even a modicum of intelligence can see why this make no sense at all even if you accept at face value the claim. This is presumably for the Russian audience who Lavrov and Putin must think are idiots. Perhaps they are? I'm beginning to think that both are now desperate and quite insane, and that's dangerous.

Lavrov repeats claims that US has been developing biological weapons

Returning to the Russian foreign minister's press conference and Sergei Lavrov goes on to say that "no one listened to us" about Russia's security concerns.

He claims that "new facts" have been uncovered in the "liberated territories" - that is the two Russian-held regions in eastern Ukraine - that attacks had been prepared against these areas for months.

He says the Pentagon is using Ukrainian territory to develop pathogens that could be used to create biological weapons - a claim the US has called "preposterous".

Lavrov says it is "no surprise" that the White House has denied this and that the EU and UN have said there is no evidence of this happening, because the Americans did it in "deep secrecy".

Edited March 10, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[horsefly 4,327]

39 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

We are now entering La La land ....

Anybody with even a modicum of intelligence can see why this make no sense at all even if you accept at face value the claim. This is presumably for the Russian audience who Lavrov and Putin must think are idiots. Perhaps they are? I'm beginning to think that both are now desperate and quite insane, and that's dangerous.

Lavrov repeats claims that US has been developing biological weapons

Returning to the Russian foreign minister's press conference and Sergei Lavrov goes on to say that "no one listened to us" about Russia's security concerns.

He claims that "new facts" have been uncovered in the "liberated territories" - that is the two Russian-held regions in eastern Ukraine - that attacks had been prepared against these areas for months.

He says the Pentagon is using Ukrainian territory to develop pathogens that could be used to create biological weapons - a claim the US has called "preposterous".

Lavrov says it is "no surprise" that the White House has denied this and that the EU and UN have said there is no evidence of this happening, because the Americans did it in "deep secrecy".

Probably the same labs that developed the Jewish space lasers that caused the wildfires in the US. 

[sonyc 5,542]

On 08/03/2022 at 10:22, sonyc said:

No doubt we will now hear Gary Neville (of all people) laying into them on Question Time this week. Something like that anyway. Only then might we see a u turn.

So here we are, a backtracking as predicted. Totally predictable in fact. But Patel should have been leading with a humanitarian response, not forced to soften policy by MPs on her own side, or via outrage or shame.

I read she is worried Ukrainians will get to the UK via the backdoor of Ireland. Yet she was given a reminder that Ireland is proudly covered by being part of the EU's response. 

Here is the excellent Brian Bilston with his latest poem.

 

[Indy 3,352]

Lots of jets off the coast here, not sure if it’s training excersize or deployment.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

Lots of jets off the coast here, not sure if it’s training excersize or deployment.

There is a NATO exercise about to take place.

[kirku 1,339]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

We are now entering La La land ....

I believe he also said this (or something extremely similar): "We have no plans to attack any other countries. In fact, we haven't attacked Ukraine"

[kirku 1,339]

 

I put this on the main board but it's kind of relevant here as well. Truly appalling decision by the club.

[horsefly 4,327]

35 minutes ago, kirku said:

 

I put this on the main board but it's kind of relevant here as well. Truly appalling decision by the club.

Disgraceful! How very sad to see Norwich of all clubs pandering to the sports-washing credo of the PL. Rethinking my season ticket renewal as a result 

[Herman 9,869]

It's the bloody corrupt PL. 

[kirku 1,339]

Whoever it is, it's absolutely disgraceful and a so called "community club with values" should stick to those values.

[Herman 9,869]

Don't disagree. Hopefully the club let the fans do the right thing. 

[Well b back 3,325]

11 hours ago, kirku said:

 

I put this on the main board but it's kind of relevant here as well. Truly appalling decision by the club.

Yet before the game the club put the flag on the scoreboard.

What was worse Ukrainian flags in support of Ukraine or the filth constantly being sung by the Chelsea supporters for their ex owner, total disgrace.

[horsefly 4,327]

The bio-lab conspiracy theories debunked:

 

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

So, What's the West's 'fuzzy red lines' over chemical weapons?

Personally I'd be tempted to say at the UN security council today that whoever uses such there will be a conventional and proportionate immediate extinction level event on the squad, platoon, company, battalion that so employed them.

There will be no further warning.

Time to take the initiative away from Putin and give his generals some mortal thoughts to worry about if they follow him blindly.

[Sheva 125]

In the last 24 hours I’m getting some desperate messages from family and friends in Ukraine asking for help.

The men have sent or are trying to get their wives and children out of the country. 
 

Poland is not able to cope and other countries need to help asap. It’s not the fault of these people that they have been bombed out of their homes . Heart breaking  to say good bye to dads and husbands,  who have no choice but to stay and fight, knowing that they might never see their children again.

We are just playing catch-up, has been like this for years. It time to just except that this is a war for everyone, it won’t be confined to the Ukraine boarders. Putin is ‘All In’. That means that when the Russian forces get beaten by the Ukrainian fighters, which is happening right now, then he goes to inhuman weapons of WMD. He already has ordered their use.

Now that Russia is firing into Dnipro, it escalates to the highest level. All my family and friends live in this region and I know it very well. This is the heart of Ukraine, as important as Kiev if not more.

Ukraine has held back and only defends its territory. It totally has the capability to escalate the war and draw the west into direct fighting but it hasn’t to date. They are getting desperate, seeing the total waste Russia is making of their country. They didn’t defend 2 nuclear plants to safeguard everyone but there is a breaking point .
 

I wish I could bring some good and positive news, but this is the reality.

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

25 minutes ago, Sheva said:

In the last 24 hours I’m getting some desperate messages from family and friends in Ukraine asking for help.

The men have sent or are trying to get their wives and children out of the country. 
 

Poland is not able to cope and other countries need to help asap. It’s not the fault of these people that they have been bombed out of their homes . Heart breaking  to say good bye to dads and husbands,  who have no choice but to stay and fight, knowing that they might never see their children again.

We are just playing catch-up, has been like this for years. It time to just except that this is a war for everyone, it won’t be confined to the Ukraine boarders. Putin is ‘All In’. That means that when the Russian forces get beaten by the Ukrainian fighters, which is happening right now, then he goes to inhuman weapons of WMD. He already has ordered their use.

Now that Russia is firing into Dnipro, it escalates to the highest level. All my family and friends live in this region and I know it very well. This is the heart of Ukraine, as important as Kiev if not more.

Ukraine has held back and only defends its territory. It totally has the capability to escalate the war and draw the west into direct fighting but it hasn’t to date. They are getting desperate, seeing the total waste Russia is making of their country. They didn’t defend 2 nuclear plants to safeguard everyone but there is a breaking point .
 

I wish I could bring some good and positive news, but this is the reality.

 

 

Sheva, I feel for you.

As you may gather I'm one for confronting Putin sooner rather than later as I suspect he will escalate and escalate and escalate. He cares nothing for the Russian let alone Ukrainian peoples - they can all be sacrificed now on his quest for power and his ego. Frankly if faced with starting a nuclear war or backing down he will start a war. We all need to acknowledge that and make our plans accordingly. The more red lines we have with a prompt ruthless response not blinking the better hope we have he won't cross or be allowed to cross the final one. 

As I see it the West's and NATOs view has been to support the Ukrainians by all 'one step removed' means to let the Russians exhaust themselves and come to standstill where hopefully wiser heads will prevail and so avoid a larger conflagration. Frankly it's sensible given that a larger conflagration will not help the Ukranians any more than what we are doing at present.

It actually doesn't help the Ukrainian case to 'threaten' the west by dragging us in even if wiser heads already accept that we are 'already in' and will have to act sooner or later with whatever consequences. China is waking up to that fact too! As you note Putin won't stop with Ukraine  - he will threaten and intimidate all his neighbors with his nuclear rhetoric if allowed too. He gotten away with it so far!

We need to get ahead of him - No fly zones over Moldova (if they accept) and yes on chemical weapons. I also see no issue in replacing lost Mig29s apart from our reticence - no difference to the Russians bringing in more reserves/replacements from the far east. If he wants to dance then we'll have to dance. Let the Russian military be in no doubt and they'll remove him before we have to. It's our 'cowardice' that lets him keep going!

 

 

[ricardo 7,448]

Sorry to hear your news Sheva, I fear we are inexorably descending into WW3.

If Putin cannot be persuaded to pull back then this will eventually escalate.

Wise heads must prevail before we are all turned into glass.

[Worthy Nigelton 1,095]

The world is well and truly fukooked. Vladimir Putin has lost his marbles and I can see no way out unless someone in Russia takes him out. Even if we gave him an option to save face does anyone truly believe he will take it? Even if he did, the sanctions will continue as we now know beyond all doubt he can't be trusted so he cant rejoin the normal international order ever again. If by some miracle he did pull out the Russian economy will be dragged down and that probably spells another war anyway much like **** Germany.

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Sorry to hear your news Sheva, I fear we are inexorably descending into WW3.

If Putin cannot be persuaded to pull back then this will eventually escalate.

Wise heads must prevail before we are all turned into glass.

I'd agree with you but Putin needs limits. We don't give him any (or find excuses to look away). 

That said - I see he's banning yet more social media platforms - Whatsapp and Instagram. North Korea style.  Clearly he's worried and I bet the young will find ways round that (Tor) etc. 

I suspect he'll have to take everybody to the precipice before he'll blink.

Edited March 11, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Well b back 3,325]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'd agree with you but Putin needs limits. We don't give him any (or find excuses to look away). 

That said - I see he's banning yet more social media platforms - Whatsapp and Instagram. North Korea  Clearly he's worried and I bet the young will find ways round that (Tor) etc. 

Facebook looking up for Russian treatment now.

[Well b back 3,325]

4 minutes ago, Worthy Nigelton said:

The world is well and truly fukooked. Vladimir Putin has lost his marbles and I can see no way out unless someone in Russia takes him out. Even if we gave him an option to save face does anyone truly believe he will take it? Even if he did, the sanctions will continue as we now know beyond all doubt he can't be trusted so he cant rejoin the normal international order ever again. If by some miracle he did pull out the Russian economy will be dragged down and that probably spells another war anyway much like **** Germany.

Maybe the first sign of him looking for a way out or maybe more mind games so he can say he offered peace. This is from his meeting with the Belarus president.

There have been "positive" developments in the ongoing negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

"There are certain positive shifts there, as negotiators from our side have briefed me," Putin told Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko - a key Russian ally - at a meeting in Moscow.

There have been three rounds of negotiations between the two sides' negotiating teams on the Ukraine-Belarus border - and on Thursday the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers met for talks in Turkey.

However, so far there have been no concrete results from the talks.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

9 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Maybe the first sign of him looking for a way out or maybe more mind games so he can say he offered peace. This is from his meeting with the Belarus president.

There have been "positive" developments in the ongoing negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials, according to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

"There are certain positive shifts there, as negotiators from our side have briefed me," Putin told Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko - a key Russian ally - at a meeting in Moscow.

There have been three rounds of negotiations between the two sides' negotiating teams on the Ukraine-Belarus border - and on Thursday the Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers met for talks in Turkey.

However, so far there have been no concrete results from the talks.

Probably after an Ireland solution. Split Ukraine in two with the pro Russians in the East and free Ukraines in the West