New Tory Leader

[Fen Canary 828]

16 hours ago, TheRock said:

Who thinks that Sunak may be out on his ear before Christmas?

Wouldn't be suprised if louder calls for him to go will resurface again in May if (when) the Tory vote is decimated at the Local Elections. The 1922 may want to try and obtain a new leader before a GE to limit the damage.

Probably wouldn’t be their worst tactic. Kick him off, get somebody else in then go straight to the polls. The new leader can (sort of) distance themselves from all the past goings on and campaign solely on future plans.

Obviously they’ll still get a richly deserved kicking, but it may be enough just to give them a small bump and a few more seats. They’re only going further down under Sunak 

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

4 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Probably wouldn’t be their worst tactic. Kick him off, get somebody else in then go straight to the polls. The new leader can (sort of) distance themselves from all the past goings on and campaign solely on future plans.

Obviously they’ll still get a richly deserved kicking, but it may be enough just to give them a small bump and a few more seats. They’re only going further down under Sunak 

It wasn't long ago that the Conservative MPs looked around and decided that Sunak was the best of a bad bunch. He probably still is. 

Things would obviously look a bit different if Johnson hadn't kicked the most gifted out of the party because they were Remainders (including Rory Stewart who is probably the most intelligent politician of his generation). 

Brexit got them in the end........ 

[Fen Canary 828]

1 minute ago, dylanisabaddog said:

You're really struggling with this aren't you? It's a concern to a minority of voters. 

I'm so sorry I touched a nerve with the other comnent🙄

It’s not that it’s not A concern for a majority of voters, it’s just not THE most important concern, there’s a big difference. By your logic every issue except the economy is a minority concern, and even that’s only a shade over half after a shocking bout of inflation. A solid majority would say it’s an important issue, it’s simply that currently the struggling economy is an even bigger issue.

https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48056-to-what-extent-is-immigration-a-top-issue-for-britons

This implies that it’s still the third most important issue nationwide

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/trackers/the-most-important-issues-facing-the-country

You didn’t touch a nerve, I just feel it’s lazy to label anybody you disagree with as bigoted. 2/3 of the country feel that immigration levels have been too high for the last 10 years, are you honestly suggesting that 2/3 of Brits are racists?

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/do-brits-think-that-immigration-has-been-too-high-or-low-in-the-last-10-years

[Fen Canary 828]

13 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

It wasn't long ago that the Conservative MPs looked around and decided that Sunak was the best of a bad bunch. He probably still is. 

Things would obviously look a bit different if Johnson hadn't kicked the most gifted out of the party because they were Remainders (including Rory Stewart who is probably the most intelligent politician of his generation). 

Brexit got them in the end........ 

Their biggest issue was they went from Boris’ levelling up, one nation Tory manifesto (even if he was flawed and incapable of actually following through on it) with which they won a big majority, to deciding to instead pivot first to a Thatcher tribute act and then finally a reheated Blair/Cameron managerialism long after voters were sick of it. Currently they stand for absolutely nothing, and they’re not even doing that competently.

Sunaks unpopularity should be a warning for Labour though, as Starmer is basically a slightly less wealthy clone. He’s another empty suit who stands for nothing, and if by some miracle (very big IF currently obviously) the Tories did manage to regroup after the election it wouldn’t take much for his support to evaporate quite quickly. I feel he’s simply winning by default currently, it really didn’t matter who was leader Labour would still win a thumping majority 

[Yellow Fever 3,789]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Brexit got them in the end........ 

You found a positive!

Oddly - Cameron called the referendum to save the Tory party from itself.

It looks likely its inherent contradictions at its heart will cause its extinction.

Edited March 28 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,789]

2 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

Their biggest issue was they went from Boris’ levelling up, one nation Tory manifesto (even if he was flawed and incapable of actually following through on it) with which they won a big majority, to deciding to instead pivot first to a Thatcher tribute act and then finally a reheated Blair/Cameron managerialism long after voters were sick of it. Currently they stand for absolutely nothing, and they’re not even doing that competently.

Boris simply promised 'Get Brexit Done' - a misnomer if there ever was one sold by a fraud.

He also promised the streets would be paved with gold and yes leveling up. Anything that seemed popular however implausible. Ever thought you were 'done' ?

Edited March 28 by Yellow Fever

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

Ignore my previous post about changing leader. Here's the latest from the Daily Mail of all papers. They've somehow managed to drop another 2 points in a week. 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13248051/Summer-election-Westminster-Rishi-Sunak-bemoans-worst-hospital-pass-decades-Boris-Johnson-Liz-Truss-frustrated-allies-warning-plotting-means-hang-Autumn.html

[king canary 7,607]

3 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

Just because the struggling economy and poorly performing NHS are currently more important issues for more voters, that doesn’t mean it’s wise to continue with our current immigration policies that a majority disagree with. The longer it appears that MPs are trying to brush the issue under the carpet, the more it will become an issue for the electorate. It’s causing a surge of support for many previously minor parties on the continent and violent protests in Ireland (ironically the country held up by many on here as an enlightened alternative to all those Leave voting Brits) so it’s not as if the major parties here can say they weren’t warned, although our FPTP does shield them more than their continental equivalents

 

What do you mean by this? Are you implying that everybody who wants stricter immigration controls do so because of bigotry?

It can both be true that our immigration rules need some reform and that it isn't a large enough concern for most that you can fight an entire election campaign on it.

[TheRock 171]

14 hours ago, king canary said:

I think there were some recent polls that suggested this may actually make things worse- there is no standout candidate, anyone with a long term ambition to lead the party wouldn't want it because of having the stink of an election hammering attached to them.

Very true. Sunak's best-case scenario is to stave off calling the GE for as long as possible. And then resign quietly when he inevitably loses.

You're right it seems like a bit of a poisoned challice, especially if they do change leader after the GE, they'll have much fewer MPs and less pedigree to chose from. All the potential sucessors are on the right of the party too, apart from Mourdant. The "Boris act II" rumors, and the Farage rumours won't go away either, they may well be able to jockey for position easier in a leadship contest if the percentage of the right-leaning factions within the party keep their seats against the overall number of Tory MPs.

Edited March 28 by TheRock

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

1 hour ago, TheRock said:

Very true. Sunak's best-case scenario is to stave off calling the GE for as long as possible. And then resign quietly when he inevitably loses.

You're right it seems like a bit of a poisoned challice, especially if they do change leader after the GE, they'll have much fewer MPs and less pedigree to chose from. All the potential sucessors are on the right of the party too, apart from Mourdant. The "Boris act II" rumors, and the Farage rumours won't go away either, they may well be able to jockey for position easier in a leadship contest if the percentage of the right-leaning factions within the party keep their seats against the overall number of Tory MPs.

In order to sit in Parliament you have to be an MP. It is possible to be leader without entering Parliament but it wouldn't be a good look. 

That means that Farage would actually have to win an election which he has failed to do 7 times in the past. Johnson would probably win a very safe seat but would he really want 10 years in opposition? 

[Barbe bleu 826]

22 hours ago, TheRock said:

Who thinks that Sunak may be out on his ear before Christmas?

Wouldn't be suprised if louder calls for him to go will resurface again in May if (when) the Tory vote is decimated at the Local Elections. The 1922 may want to try and obtain a new leader before a GE to limit the damage.

Can't see it happening.   Tories know that they are at the end of the road whatever happens so won't be looking for a hail mary act to mix things up with.

It's about damage limitation and forcing a hung parliament now.  The polls shifted in the Tories favour this week. A couple more % points off Labour onto Conservative and a lot for the reform vote 'going  home' and the aim could still, inexplicably, be acheived. Conservatives will be happy with that and won't look to change things unless starmer steps up and all the signs are that he won't do that until manifesto time.

[TheRock 171]

3 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

In order to sit in Parliament you have to be an MP. It is possible to be leader without entering Parliament but it wouldn't be a good look. 

That means that Farage would actually have to win an election which he has failed to do 7 times in the past. Johnson would probably win a very safe seat but would he really want 10 years in opposition? 

True, albeit Farage did get very close when he stood in Thanet, a few polls had gave him the seat prior to the vote as no one expected Tories to clear up as well as they did in 2015. That was nine years ago and he has a much bigger following since then, nevertheless the only realistic way for him to win a seat if he stood on a Tory ticket and Reform stood aside for him, otherwise he will always lose to a split vote.

Agree regarding Johnson not wanting to be in opposition, plus he is supposedly coining it in heavier than ever now he isn't an MP.

 

Edited March 28 by TheRock

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Can't see it happening.   Tories know that they are at the end of the road whatever happens so won't be looking for a hail mary act to mix things up with.

It's about damage limitation and forcing a hung parliament now.  The polls shifted in the Tories favour this week. A couple more % points off Labour onto Conservative and a lot for the reform vote 'going  home' and the aim could still, inexplicably, be acheived. Conservatives will be happy with that and won't look to change things unless starmer steps up and all the signs are that he won't do that until manifesto time.

Which poll have you seen that shows the Conservatives gaining ground? The Daily Mail poll this week shows them losing ground with a 99% probability of a Labour majority 

Edited March 28 by dylanisabaddog

[Barbe bleu 826]

1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Which poll have you seen that shows the Conservatives gaining ground? The Daily Mail poll this week shows them losing ground with a 99% probability of a Labour majority 

The last four from big companies had the same theme

 

The lead is still healthy and this is just a small snap shot of very limited predictive value, but Starmer wont like that the gap has closed in all of them, nor that Con+Ref is pretty close to Lab.  He won't like thr noise in the polls either- there's 10% plus differences between poll leads over the space of a week or so and noisy polls could suggest weak support.

Question is are Reform kingmakers and kingbreakers?

 

Edited March 28 by Barbe bleu

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

28 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The last four from big companies had the same theme

 

The lead is still healthy and this is just a small snap shot of very limited predictive value, but Starmer wont like that the gap has closed in all of them, nor that Con+Ref is pretty close to Lab.  He won't like thr noise in the polls either- there's 10% plus differences between poll leads over the space of a week or so and noisy polls could suggest weak support.

Question is are Reform kingmakers and kingbreakers?

 

That's interesting thanks and a little bit odd as I can't think of anything to cause the change and the Mail poll is completely different. The Reform figures vary by up to 5 points so someone is obviously hopelessly wrong. I suspect it is The Daily Mail! 

From a Labour point of view, an increased Reform vote may be good news as the vast majority of their votes are taken from the Tories. 

 

[Fen Canary 828]

10 hours ago, king canary said:

It can both be true that our immigration rules need some reform and that it isn't a large enough concern for most that you can fight an entire election campaign on it.

Isn’t that true for almost any subject bar the economy though? Not many single issue parties will get a look in with FPTP

[Barbe bleu 826]

14 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

That's interesting thanks and a little bit odd as I can't think of anything to cause the change and the Mail poll is completely different. The Reform figures vary by up to 5 points so someone is obviously hopelessly wrong. I suspect it is The Daily Mail! 

From a Labour point of view, an increased Reform vote may be good news as the vast majority of their votes are taken from the Tories. 

 

The daily mail have a story to tell, same as the guardian, I wouldnt take either st face value pretty much ever.

Here's my thing with reform. Yes, i suspect that they are attracting a lot of tory 2019 voters so if they stand everywhere Tories will be hit the most.

..But they will only split the vote where they stand. What if they stand only in LD and Lab seats? They will have a big voice at the election but won't really harm the tory plan who will probably benefit from Ref voters going back to Con.

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

10 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

The daily mail have a story to tell, same as the guardian, I wouldnt take either st face value pretty much ever.

Here's my thing with reform. Yes, i suspect that they are attracting a lot of tory 2019 voters so if they stand everywhere Tories will be hit the most.

..But they will only split the vote where they stand. What if they stand only in LD and Lab seats? They will have a big voice at the election but won't really harm the tory plan who will probably benefit from Ref voters going back to Con.

Their leader has given a 110% copper bottomed guarantee they will have a candidate in each constituency. So you may be right😂

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/04/reform-uk-field-candidate-against-every-tory-next-election-richard-tice

Edit

I'm pretty dubious about opinion polls as well, apart from the one the rich guy does for the Conservative Party. 

Edited March 29 by dylanisabaddog

[Herman 9,768]

DUP leader gone. Done something iffy in the past alledgedly.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

18 hours ago, Herman said:

DUP leader gone. Done something iffy in the past alledgedly.

Couldn't have happened to a nicer chap 😂

[A K Narey 85]

On 28/03/2024 at 19:20, dylanisabaddog said:

From a Labour point of view, an increased Reform vote may be good news as the vast majority of their votes are taken from the Tories. 

 

I am not entirely sure about that. The Northern "Red Wall" seats that the Tories won under Johnson will probably have a strong Reform vote.

There is a long way to go in the election race and Starmer does not have the keys to Number 10 on his hands yet.

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

1 minute ago, A K Narey said:

I am not entirely sure about that. The Northern "Red Wall" seats that the Tories won under Johnson will probably have a strong Reform vote.

There is a long way to go in the election race and Starmer does not have the keys to Number 10 on his hands yet.

Agree with that, but suspect around here (I live in Bolton West)  that it'll hit the Tories harder than Labour. They're all but certain to lose Bolton North-East, which they only just sneaked in the previous GE. And if they lose Bolton West I think they'll lose the whole thing by at least 100-150 seats as that's their safest seat in Greater Manchester.

[Well b back 3,208]

3 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

Agree with that, but suspect around here (I live in Bolton West)  that it'll hit the Tories harder than Labour. They're all but certain to lose Bolton North-East, which they only just sneaked in the previous GE. And if they lose Bolton West I think they'll lose the whole thing by at least 100-150 seats as that's their safest seat in Greater Manchester.

I am more north, in Birmingham. Most people I know ( some like me are not voting Tory in a GE for the first time ), are not voting Labour, Lib Dem’s, Reform, but they are voting Tory out, ie for the party that has the best of chance of getting rid of the Tory.  Some I know who vote Lib Dem for instance are even considering switching to ensure their Tory candidate is destroyed.
Contradicting this are the ones that will vote reform, but they all seem to be Tory voters, that want the traditional Tory party destroyed and reform to take over. 
What’s it like in Manchester @sonyc ?

Edited March 30 by Well b back

[TheGunnShow 5,940]

36 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I am more north, in Birmingham. Most people I know ( some like me are not voting Tory in a GE for the first time ), are not voting Labour, Lib Dem’s, Reform, but they are voting Tory out, ie for the party that has the best of chance of getting rid of the Tory.  Some I know who vote Lib Dem for instance are even considering switching to ensure their Tory candidate is destroyed.
Contradicting this are the ones that will vote reform, but they all seem to be Tory voters, that want the traditional Tory party destroyed and reform to take over. 
What’s it like in Manchester @sonyc ?

Pretty sure Bolton's more north than Brum, but I take the point. Greater Manchester still tends to run more red than blue but looking at that lot, you'd be surprised if Bolton North-East, Heywood and Middleton, and Bury North didn't turn red and Bury South should have a decent-sized Labour majority after the previous MP turned. Suspect Leigh would go too, that's always been a typical post-industrial working-class area and they were probably pro-Brexit.

If the Tories lost Altrincham though, that would be massive. I know Bolton West has a bigger majority, but I think it was more pro-Brexit than Altrincham - and Altrincham's always been a well-to-do part of the county, so naturally tends Tory.

List of parliamentary constituencies in Greater Manchester - Wikipedia

[sonyc 5,520]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

Contradicting this are the ones that will vote reform, but they all seem to be Tory voters, that want the traditional Tory party destroyed and reform to take over. 
What’s it like in Manchester @sonyc ?

Robbie Moore is my MP now WBB. His election stuff comes through the door every fortnight. He is campaigning to leave Bradford Council and to set up a new small council for the Ilkley, Keighley and Shipley districts. His slogan is "Take Back Our Voice".  He blames everything on Bradford Council and not on his own party's lack of funding over 14 years. In fact there's nothing on any of his literature to indicate he is a Conservative. He has joined up with Philip Davies (soon to be Sir Philip). It's all very populist stuff. I think Moore will definitely lose to Labour in the GE. He is trying to create a divide and focussing on an issue that some die hard voters might be convinced about. His literature upsets Mrs S and I hope he never knocks on the door when she is at home in the coming months. She doesn't suffer fools (except me☺️).

The Skipton area is interesting and one of the safest Tory seats in the country. I cannot see Reform winning but if I had to make a prediction I believe they will take from the Tories mostly but also some of Labour's supporters. 

Skipton will make for an interesting watch come November (or whenever it comes...guess it could be earlier).

My own local ward (Craven ) is Green (2 of them with a Conservative). I'm not active in any local political matters but have met both Green councillors twice in a year and have to say that they are conscientious. Whether their work could translate to people voting at MP level is doubtful though. Parts of Shipley have had local green councillors but once again this is just local. They are well regarded.

Again, as so many have expressed, it's a shame we don't have a broader electoral system than First Past The Post.

As for Manchester try @Aggy ...he may give you a good perspective.

 

[Well b back 3,208]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Robbie Moore is my MP now WBB. His election stuff comes through the door every fortnight. He is campaigning to leave Bradford Council and to set up a new small council for the Ilkley, Keighley and Shipley districts. His slogan is "Take Back Our Voice".  He blames everything on Bradford Council and not on his own party's lack of funding over 14 years. In fact there's nothing on any of his literature to indicate he is a Conservative. He has joined up with Philip Davies (soon to be Sir Philip). It's all very populist stuff. I think Moore will definitely lose to Labour in the GE. He is trying to create a divide and focussing on an issue that some die hard voters might be convinced about. His literature upsets Mrs S and I hope he never knocks on the door when she is at home in the coming months. She doesn't suffer fools (except me☺️).

The Skipton area is interesting and one of the safest Tory seats in the country. I cannot see Reform winning but if I had to make a prediction I believe they will take from the Tories mostly but also some of Labour's supporters. 

Skipton will make for an interesting watch come November (or whenever it comes...guess it could be earlier).

My own local ward (Craven ) is Green (2 of them with a Conservative). I'm not active in any local political matters but have met both Green councillors twice in a year and have to say that they are conscientious. Whether their work could translate to people voting at MP level is doubtful though. Parts of Shipley have had local green councillors but once again this is just local. They are well regarded.

Again, as so many have expressed, it's a shame we don't have a broader electoral system than First Past The Post.

As for Manchester try @Aggy ...he may give you a good perspective.

 

I think the local elections will be a far bigger wipe out than the GE for the Tories. I wonder if Reform do really well if Farage will see that as his one and only chance and somehow do a deal so he can become Tory leader ( yes I appreciate he has to be a serving mp ).

[Fen Canary 828]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

I think the local elections will be a far bigger wipe out than the GE for the Tories. I wonder if Reform do really well if Farage will see that as his one and only chance and somehow do a deal so he can become Tory leader ( yes I appreciate he has to be a serving mp ).

He probably feels he can affect change more easily from the sidelines than he could having to wrangle the Tory party if he led it.

He knows the bulk of the Reform party will follow his lead, whereas parts of the Tory party (especially the pro EU ones) would be actively working against him. His previous experience will also have taught him that he doesn’t actually have to be in the party to influence it’s direction if travel. His 10+% he won with UKIP in 2015 was enough to get Cameron to promise a referendum on the EU in an attempt to put the matter to bed. If he can draw enough votes away to scare the Tories into agreeing to a PR referendum then his job of establishing the Party in Westminster will be much easier in the long term 

[Aggy 755]

6 hours ago, sonyc said:

Robbie Moore is my MP now WBB. His election stuff comes through the door every fortnight. He is campaigning to leave Bradford Council and to set up a new small council for the Ilkley, Keighley and Shipley districts. His slogan is "Take Back Our Voice".  He blames everything on Bradford Council and not on his own party's lack of funding over 14 years. In fact there's nothing on any of his literature to indicate he is a Conservative. He has joined up with Philip Davies (soon to be Sir Philip). It's all very populist stuff. I think Moore will definitely lose to Labour in the GE. He is trying to create a divide and focussing on an issue that some die hard voters might be convinced about. His literature upsets Mrs S and I hope he never knocks on the door when she is at home in the coming months. She doesn't suffer fools (except me☺️).

The Skipton area is interesting and one of the safest Tory seats in the country. I cannot see Reform winning but if I had to make a prediction I believe they will take from the Tories mostly but also some of Labour's supporters. 

Skipton will make for an interesting watch come November (or whenever it comes...guess it could be earlier).

My own local ward (Craven ) is Green (2 of them with a Conservative). I'm not active in any local political matters but have met both Green councillors twice in a year and have to say that they are conscientious. Whether their work could translate to people voting at MP level is doubtful though. Parts of Shipley have had local green councillors but once again this is just local. They are well regarded.

Again, as so many have expressed, it's a shame we don't have a broader electoral system than First Past The Post.

As for Manchester try @Aggy ...he may give you a good perspective.

 

Had lunch recently with a couple  of contacts who work/live near Skipton and their biggest concern was Labour charging VAT on private school fees.  

I’ve recently moved from near Manchester City centre (in what had been a very strong Labour seat virtually for ever) further out so no longer in GM (although still commute in.). New constituency has been Tory every election since 1918. So I’m fairly used to my vote being largely irrelevant!

Interestingly though, in the local elections here, since 2015 the tories have gone from 51 seats to 33 and Labour have gone from 16 to 31.

Greater Manchester is largely Labour still -  there are a few Tory seats but most have relatively small majorities and wouldn’t be surprised to see most of them go to Labour. Even if Reform take some Labour votes, you’d think the Tories will lose more between people deciding to vote Labour and Reform instead.

In the Cheshire areas where you have a lot of old rich people the opposite is true and it’s all quite white, middle class, and very Tory. Reform might take some Tory votes but not enough to swing things to Labour in most instances I wouldn’t have thought.

So I can’t really see Reform having much impact in many of the constituencies in GM or Cheshire tbh.

Edited March 30 by Aggy

[Yellow Fever 3,789]

Some of you will enjoy this....https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-poll-tory-mp-party-cabinet-seats-6ktnbkt7b

The 15,000-person MRP poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, up three points from the campaign group's previous poll at the end of last year.

MRP poll gives Tories just 98 seats

[dylanisabaddog 4,930]

7 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Some of you will enjoy this....https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/general-election-poll-tory-mp-party-cabinet-seats-6ktnbkt7b

The 15,000-person MRP poll, conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain, puts Labour on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, up three points from the campaign group's previous poll at the end of last year.

MRP poll gives Tories just 98 seats

Historically these polls have been the most accurate partly because they poll 15,000 people rather than 2,000.

A complete mess for the Conservatives as they may drop below 100 seats. Critics of Sunak are again suggesting a new leader but I can't help thinking that would make the electorate even more angry. 

The biggest problem for the Conservatives maybe funding. Will large donors still be prepared to part with huge sums to prop up a party with fewer than 100 MPs? 

A Lib Dem friend tells me that their doorstep campaigning in the Midlands has revealed large numbers of traditionally Conservative voters who say they won't be voting at all. Perhaps that's the real reason for the huge Labour lead? 

Edited March 31 by dylanisabaddog