New Tory Leader

[sonyc 5,519]

20 hours ago, ricardo said:

You realise normal rules don't  apply to Boris?

Looks like you're right. And maybe I'm wrong. His odds were 8.6 yesterday and are now around 2.4 (decimals rather than old-fashioned odds). Sunak is only just around evens (2.0) as the slight favourite.

Would Tory MPs actually decide to vote for him? He has lied and has broken rules and over 50 of his own party resigned over his handling of a sexual assault. Do they actually think he is good for the country or good for their electoral chances? Or both? Do they want him to win so that he then has to resign again and go to a GE and lose leaving the mess to Labour? Or do you think MPs only think of their seats?

 

It's like a bad dream for me. Waking up to this story is so depressing. I've wondered whether I am simply out of step with the country because I cannot fathom why any party would even contemplate having someone like him back.

 

That's why I may simply don't fit in to what the country thinks. I realise there are a few on this thread who feel like me - thank god. But I'm worried this cohort make up a tiny minority. It's a comfort to post views amongst like-minded people after all.

 

I'm asking you Ricardo because you've found him amusing in the past and secondly, you're squarely behind the Brexit that Conservative voters tell TV interviewers Johnson delivered (so-called 'getting it done'). Am I so out of kilter with public opinion? So many TV box pops keep talking about "Boris" as if he is their friend. Whatever he has done doesn't feel to me important to them. Trump said he could shoot someone on fifth avenue and get voted in. Johnson seems the same? Are there ANY circumstances where you'd turn against him? Is my moral compass out of kilter? 

 

Watching QT last night I felt there was a lot of people who were like me though. But it's a rare experience. Maybe I need to leave the country and find somewhere that feels more sympathetic to the needs of the majority of people!

 

Lots of questions - maybe you've not got the answers either - but I'm genuinely confused and dispirited actually. Has the country moved so far to the right in the last few years? I want to ask right of centre people like you to try and understand rather than get agreement from an echo chamber of my own views.

Edited October 21, 2022 by sonyc

[Barry Brockes 147]

Most MPs are only interested in themselves and are banking on Johnson being an election winner or at least banking on him ensuring that fewer of them become unemployed after the next GE than any of the other candidates.

[benchwarmer 625]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

His odds were 8.6 yesterday and are now around 2.4 (decimals rather than old-fashioned odds). Sunak is only just around evens (2.0) as the slight favourite.

 

This has more to do with the number of bets the bookies are receiving than the real chances of Johnson being elected.  It's all done on computers these days.  Boris fans are piling in on the basis of diddly squat.  They think the more they bet on him, the more likely it is to happen.

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by benchwarmer

[benchwarmer 625]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - I'm uncertain of her - Sunak as PM but she's the supposed dream ticket to appease the right in some lesser role.

Ideally we need a Sunak a coronation.

Agreed.  He has a very good understanding of how the markets work, and the markets know that.  Whether he has enough integrity to steer clear of insider trading is another matter entirely.

Edited October 21, 2022 by benchwarmer

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

Well - When Truss was in trouble I said 2 weeks which was about right.

Another prediction - 

Boris voted in next Friday

Vote of Confidence by SKS on Monday - many Tories abstain, cross the floor or resign.

Election mid December.

Starmer PM by Christmas with super majority. 

Tory party collapses / splits in New Year in total disarray. Nobody cares.

Edited October 21, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,415]

@sonyc mainly

You're not the only one. I don't get the f.uckin Boris love fest either. Have they really got such short memories 😡

I've seen a couple of Tory MPs doing the rounds this morning who are advocating the fat ****, saying they have been told by there constituents that that is what they want, well that is bull5hite right there, as I doubt any constituentcy MPs would even dare doorstep at the moment. Do they really think that we fall for this carp.

If BJ gets in there should be riots on the street, if not then the whole country needs to take a long hard look at its apathetic self.

[Well b back 3,207]

24 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

Agreed.  He has a very good understanding of how the markets work, and the markets know that.  Whether he has enough integrity to steer clear of insider trading is another matter entirely.

Another big thing is the markets and business trust him. Johnson without Sunak could be little like Lambert without Culverhouse.

[Well b back 3,207]

16 minutes ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

@sonyc mainly

You're not the only one. I don't get the f.uckin Boris love fest either. Have they really got such short memories 😡

I've seen a couple of Tory MPs doing the rounds this morning who are advocating the fat ****, saying they have been told by there constituents that that is what they want, well that is bull5hite right there, as I doubt any constituentcy MPs would even dare doorstep at the moment. Do they really think that we fall for this carp.

If BJ gets in there should be riots on the street, if not then the whole country needs to take a long hard look at its apathetic self.

I was just in the post office and it seems unfortunately what has happened is that Truss was so bad, people now think Johnson was the best PM ever. Here’s a conspiracy theory, as Johnson backed Truss this was the plan all along, they just thought it would last a couple more months.

[TheRock 171]

34 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Well - When Truss was in trouble I said 2 weeks which was about right.

Another prediction - 

Boris voted in next Friday

Vote of Confidence by SKS on Monday - many Tories abstain, cross the floor or resign.

Election mid December.

Starmer PM by Christmas with super majority. 

Tory party collapses / splits in New Year in total disarray. Nobody cares.

Not impossible but its 357 plays 284,  giving 73 majority.

So 37 Tory MPs would have to abstain/resign/defect to let in the opposition and give it to the "Aye" vote, thats assuming the combined opposition vote is 100% unanimous with no abstensions (or "Noes"!).

 

Ironically it would probably be someone who is totally intolerant of Boris (like Theresa May) who could organise a coup to get 37+ Tory MPs to abstain, although it is "turkeys voting for christmas" political martyrdom for those 37, unless as you say, they cross the floor.

Edited October 21, 2022 by TheRock

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

1 minute ago, TheRock said:

Not impossible but its 357 plays 284,  giving 73 majority.

So 37 Tory MPs would have to abstain/resign/defect to let in the opposition and give it to the "Aye" vote, thats assuming the combined opposition vote is 100% unanimous with no abstensions (or "Noes"!).

 

Ironically it would probably be someone who is totally intolerant of Boris (like Theresa May) who could organise to get 37+ Tory MPs to abstain.

If I was SKS I would go for it anyway - at some point you have to make the hypocrites walk the walk of shame. Win win. 

[TheRock 171]

If I were a betting man i'd bet on Mourdant at 10/1 to win,

also,

a General Election in 2022 at 10/1 (which is very likely if Boris is let back in).

 

Fishy Rishi shouldn't and won't win if the vote goes to the membership against either Mourdant or BJ, he just does not have the popularity to do so, despite being the MP's choice. Only way these bets will lose is if they withdraw and let Fishy win by coronation, or if the GE were kicked into early 2023.

Edited October 21, 2022 by TheRock

[MooreMarriot 310]

If Johnson wins he may not last even 44 days :

https://www.itv.com/news/2022-10-21/damning-partygate-evidence-means-boris-johnson-could-be-gone-by-christmas

[ricardo 7,395]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

 

 

I'm asking you Ricardo because you've found him amusing in the past and secondly, you're squarely behind the Brexit that Conservative voters tell TV interviewers Johnson delivered (so-called 'getting it done'). Am I so out of kilter with public opinion? So many TV box pops keep talking about "Boris" as if he is their friend. Whatever he has done doesn't feel to me important to them. Trump said he could shoot someone on fifth avenue and get voted in. Johnson seems the same? Are there ANY circumstances where you'd turn against him? Is my moral compass out of kilter? 

 

Watching QT last night I felt there was a lot of people who were like me though. But it's a rare experience. Maybe I need to leave the country and find somewhere that feels more sympathetic to the needs of the majority of people!

 

Lots of questions - maybe you've not got the answers either - but I'm genuinely confused and dispirited actually. Has the country moved so far to the right in the last few years? I want to ask right of centre people like you to try and understand rather than get agreement from an echo chamber of my own views.

 

You can't label Boris as either left or right of the party, Boris is just Boris and he will do whatever works for him and whatever is to his personal advantage. The average man in the sreet would rather have a pint in the pub with him than with SKS but that doesn't  make him suited to be PM.  Women seem appalled by his lax sexual morals yet seem strangely attracted to him.

Boris is a complex character but when surrounded by competent people he got things done as mayor of London. He was instrumental in breaking the Brexit  log-jam and seeing off Corbyn but his laziness and inattention to detail made him unsuited for the PM job. 

As I commented upthread, my advice to the 1922 Committee would be to give him the Luca Brasi treatment. "Sorry Boris, nothing personal, but these men are now going to take you for a little drive."

There is absolutely  nothing wrong with your moral compass SONYC although it is arguably of limited use in the dirty game of politics. As you will note from the previous paragraph there are just some situations where it doesn't  apply.

I have lived long enough to see the political pendulum swing between left and right several times. I expect it will always do so. This is just another swing.

[Pyro Pete 1,897]

Warning: contains moderate swears.

 

[Mr Apples 1,320]

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As I commented upthread, my advice to the 1922 Committee would be to give him the Luca Brasi treatment

Didn't Luca Brasi end up sleeping with the fishes after getting stabbed in the hand and then throttled? 

Oh well, if that's the only solution... 🤷‍♂️🤣

Apples

[ricardo 7,395]

10 minutes ago, Mr Apples said:

Didn't Luca Brasi end up sleeping with the fishes after getting stabbed in the hand and then throttled? 

Oh well, if that's the only solution... 🤷‍♂️🤣

Apples

Yes, you are correct. Memory is failing, it was Salvatore Tessio who went out for a drive.

Either ending would be good👍😀

[sonyc 5,519]

3 hours ago, Wings of a Sparrow said:

@sonyc mainly

You're not the only one. I don't get the f.uckin Boris love fest either. Have they really got such short memories 😡

I've seen a couple of Tory MPs doing the rounds this morning who are advocating the fat ****, saying they have been told by there constituents that that is what they want, well that is bull5hite right there, as I doubt any constituentcy MPs would even dare doorstep at the moment. Do they really think that we fall for this carp.

If BJ gets in there should be riots on the street, if not then the whole country needs to take a long hard look at its apathetic self.

Agree fully. As you'll have guessed. I think we do have an apathetic country and now feel amazed that there were riots about the poll tax. Yet that was after so many years of Thatcherism and deep resentment. She had outstayed her time (I used to think she would never go) and so has this present lot. If Thatcher had left and then returned I've no idea what would have happened! Johnson returning is even more bizarre, for all the obvious reasons. I know politicians are often not the most honest because they have to try and tow a party line, be collective. Yet I think we need to have a certain level of trust in them - and I mean by that, over and above the obvious mechanism for removing them from power at elections. As a country have we really lowered the bar so much? 

 

And I agree with @ricardo that I think I would prefer a pint with Johnson rather than Starmer but only for the chance to study someone like him close up. I'm sure he is funny and I'm sure also he can be charming as and when he needs to be. Yet, for all that, that so many people call him by his first name demonstrates the cult of personality. Ultimately he has always been a snake, a viper, with women and with political colleagues. He cares for few it seems. And quite the nasty piece of work if you've seen some of his parliamentary performances. Apparently to, he has a serious temper, so much so that people are in awe of him. 

 

Depressing to be writing about the fella again though. I suppose it makes life interesting but it just takes the country backwards in terms of lost reputation etc etc and we all suffer. I felt the same dismay after Brexit. Quite a personal thing that was for me. I am not embarrassed to say I feel sadness about it. More than anger.

 

I was serious about moving to another country too. Ireland, Scotland perhaps...or France (which would be possible) but that would mean probably leaving some family behind (and Norwich City😟). I think with us just having this one life we have to try and find contentment. As I get older, I'm finding that  living in a place that has similar values seems to matter to me a lot more. Perhaps we are living in a more selfish society?  Truss for example, actually outlined how she thought capitalism ought not be redistributive but geared to the rich. And I just don't understand that - why one 'normal' person would ever support that point of view. 

 

I know all this probably makes me come across a bit  pathetic. But I've worked for about 42 years and the vast majority of that time was dedicated to trying to help folk in life, to help with outcomes. It gave me satisfaction. So, after that time has ended I no longer have that purpose and I'm left just to reflect a lot more about what it all means. Often here 😐

 

Edited October 21, 2022 by sonyc

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

This vote will be all about the bankbench power struggle. Brexit is done and the right must now turn their attention to something else..

The remainers in the centre know even if Boris gets the gig, he will do as he is told by the SPADS and ERG. So there will be no attention to the economy because unless there is some bizarre arrangement, Hunt will be gone.

WhileI want this mob out at all costs, I don"t want them trashing the economy any more than they have done.

To be honest this is back to the rotten borough days. Nothing democratic about it at all.

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

4 hours ago, Well b back said:

The Trumpism around it is being taken in by many. Liz Truss was so bad therefore the Boris supporters are using that to say what a brilliant PM Boris was. Those MP’s supporting him should really look at the polls around Johnson and the reality of lots of Tory MPs deserting the party. 

The question is, though, how safe are those seats? The Conservatives are at serious risk of being devastated to a level beyond 1997 the way things have been going on. BJ's marmite. Lots of people hate him, but the Conservative core vote love him. For the survival of the party, they're best off having him back to lead them into a mitigated loss, then he can resign and they can start rebuilding. 

Mordaunt should stay out of it in my view. She'd be better off running for leadership once they're out of office. Sunak is far and away the best choice... for the Labour party. 

Edited October 21, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[sonyc 5,519]

3 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Sunak is far and away the best choice... for the Labour party. 

I don't really care who is best for the Labour Party or not LYB. We just need some short term serious leadership. This is no time for party games in my opinion because there are so many serious problems. Johnson wasn't and can't be. Truss was moronic - every single poster on this thread said as much before she even came to power.

We need some short term stability as a country. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

Just now, sonyc said:

I don't really care who is best for the Labour Party or not LYB. We just need some short term serious leadership. This is no time for party games in my opinion because there are so many serious problems. Johnson wasn't and can't be. Truss was moronic - every single poster on this thread said as much before she even came to power.

We need some short term stability as a country. 

Point of order: TvB didn't. 😂 (Sorry, TvB; I couldn't resist). 

We definitely need some stability and calm. Maybe whoever comes next will surprise us and call a GE. To be honest, the Conservatives are now so split they may actually have no choice. 

 

[Pyro Pete 1,897]

 

[Pyro Pete 1,897]

 

[Herman 9,765]

4 minutes ago, Pyro Pete said:

 

Gaslighting mother ****ers. Burn it down.

[Well b back 3,207]

5 hours ago, sonyc said:

Looks like you're right. And maybe I'm wrong. His odds were 8.6 yesterday and are now around 2.4 (decimals rather than old-fashioned odds). Sunak is only just around evens (2.0) as the slight favourite.

Would Tory MPs actually decide to vote for him? He has lied and has broken rules and over 50 of his own party resigned over his handling of a sexual assault. Do they actually think he is good for the country or good for their electoral chances? Or both? Do they want him to win so that he then has to resign again and go to a GE and lose leaving the mess to Labour? Or do you think MPs only think of their seats?

 

It's like a bad dream for me. Waking up to this story is so depressing. I've wondered whether I am simply out of step with the country because I cannot fathom why any party would even contemplate having someone like him back.

 

That's why I may simply don't fit in to what the country thinks. I realise there are a few on this thread who feel like me - thank god. But I'm worried this cohort make up a tiny minority. It's a comfort to post views amongst like-minded people after all.

 

I'm asking you Ricardo because you've found him amusing in the past and secondly, you're squarely behind the Brexit that Conservative voters tell TV interviewers Johnson delivered (so-called 'getting it done'). Am I so out of kilter with public opinion? So many TV box pops keep talking about "Boris" as if he is their friend. Whatever he has done doesn't feel to me important to them. Trump said he could shoot someone on fifth avenue and get voted in. Johnson seems the same? Are there ANY circumstances where you'd turn against him? Is my moral compass out of kilter? 

 

Watching QT last night I felt there was a lot of people who were like me though. But it's a rare experience. Maybe I need to leave the country and find somewhere that feels more sympathetic to the needs of the majority of people!

 

Lots of questions - maybe you've not got the answers either - but I'm genuinely confused and dispirited actually. Has the country moved so far to the right in the last few years? I want to ask right of centre people like you to try and understand rather than get agreement from an echo chamber of my own views.

Here’s someone with the same thoughts as you and he is a very sensible man

The return of Boris Johnson as prime minister would lead to a "death spiral" for the Tories, ex-Conservative leader Lord William Hague has said.

Lord Hague, speaking to Times Radio, described a new Johnson premiership as "possibly the worst idea I've heard of" during his 46-year party membership.

He claimed the ex-prime minister was unable to run a government correctly and uphold high standards of conduct.

"That would be going round in circles and that could become a death spiral of the Conservative Party," he said.

[PurpleCanary 5,562]

In an excoriating leader yesterday the FT said the idea of BoJo the Charlatan coming back as PM was "farcical". Indeed, but they could have used another three-syllable word beginning with "f" - "feasible".

When only three months ago MP Caroline Jonson (no, I hadn't heard of her either) quit as a vice-chair of the Tory party she said this in her resignation letter to BoJo: "The cumulative effect of your errors of judgment and domestic actions have squandered the goodwill of our great party, Conservative colleagues, and many of my constituents”.

Guess who she has just said she will be voting for to succeed Truss as leader of the Tory party and PM...

 

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,415]

You really couldn't make it up. Be funny if it wasn't so serious. Or possible.

[Well b back 3,207]

If anyone thought Johnson would be honourable and throw in the towel if he came a distant second, forget it. The scheming w****** are already at work.

Tory party members should get a vote on the new leader, according to Jacob Rees-Mogg.

The business secretary - who's backing Johnson in the race - believes there should not be a deal to stop the contest going to a vote of the membership.

He told the Telegraph’s Christopher Hope: "I'm always in favour of the members deciding the leadership – I think that’s the right place for it to go.

"And I think the 1922 Committee and the board of the Tory party have done really well to get it to a position where that can be done swiftly. I'm in favour of it going to the membership."

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

Saw this. WOW

Paul Goodman, the editor of Conservative Home – the website for news and opinion on the Conservative party – has written an interesting op ed this evening where he says that Boris Johnson becoming party leader again would cause the public to “run screaming” after Truss turned the party into a laughing stock.

"The thought occurs that maybe the Conservative Party no longer cares. Perhaps the sum of its ambition is to become the provisional wing of the right-wing entertainment industry: happy to preach to a diminishing band of true believers, and good for a newspaper column or fringe TV turn, while Keir Starmer gets on with the tiresome business of actually running the country.

If so, it can look forward to a Prime Minister staffing his government with fifth raters, since the bulk of the 66 Ministers who resigned in the summer will refuse to serve. If a by-election forced by a Commons suspension doesn’t get him first. If the Tory benches don’t first vote down the report into his conduct that would trigger it, thus speeding the spiral of decline.

The Germans have a word for it: Totentanz – a dance of death. Conservative MPs, peers, donors, hacks and activists caper onwards an open grave, with Death himself – sorry, Johnson – leading the procession. The dance possesses them; it has a momentum of its own; they are powerless to stop.

 

[Well b back 3,207]

So we saw the BBC from Grimsby and they could only find people saying bring back Boris. To my surprise therefore I find this on BBC website.

Like many other former Labour strongholds which made up the 'red wall',Grimsby turned Conservative for the first time in decades at the 2019 general election.

We went to the Lincolnshire town to get a sense of how local people are feeling about the state of politics.

Fed up with the "infighting and incompetence", Graham Thompson, who runs a jewellery stall, says: "I'd vote for Larry [the Downing Street cat] if an election was called."

Holistic stall owner and fortune-teller Suzan Holmes says people voted Conservative because they thought they'd be better off, but many feel "angry" and working people feel like they should have more to show for their hard work.

So what can we expect over the next few days... a recession and the return of Boris Johnson, according to Suzan's prediction.