Yellow Fever 3,793 Posted November 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said: But the Zoe app which has the largest number of survey participants estimates 42,276 cases today - a huge difference to these figures and perhaps explains why Sage may be having problems estimating/advising , and I'm confused as to how these people can be so far apart. The truth is, I lean towards believing the Zoe survey which has seemed to reflect the number of cases (by which I mean, cases v hospital admissions v deaths) most accurately over the past few months. Ons are the only reliable numbers but they are only posted a week or two late. The number above is not out of line as todays estimate. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mark .Y. 352 Posted November 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: Ons are the only reliable numbers but they are only posted a week or two late. The number above is not out of line as todays estimate. Sorry YF, not quite understanding you. Are you saying the number of 42,276 is a good estimate for today ? If so, why is that so different from the MRC units estimate ? And the last weekly update from Tim Spector (from Zoe) said that his figures were broadly in line with the ONS statistics so I guess they must be accurate ?? Signed confused.com 😷 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,793 Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 51 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said: Sorry YF, not quite understanding you. Are you saying the number of 42,276 is a good estimate for today ? If so, why is that so different from the MRC units estimate ? And the last weekly update from Tim Spector (from Zoe) said that his figures were broadly in line with the ONS statistics so I guess they must be accurate ?? Signed confused.com 😷 ONS released 30 Oct but for week ending 23rd. 52000 per day England alone. Think it excludes care home ? For England, the incidence rate continues to increase; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate there were around 9.52 new COVID-19 infections for every 10,000 people per day (95% credible interval: 7.06 to 14.53) in the community population in England, equating to around 51,900 new cases per day (95% credible interval: 38,500 to 79,200). Positivity rates in Wales have increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate that 26,100 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,600 to 47,900), equating to 1 in 120 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 240 to 1 in 60). Positivity rates in Northern Ireland have increased in recent weeks; during the most recent week (17 to 23 October 2020), we estimate that 24,300 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 12,600 to 43,700), equating to 1 in 80 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 150 to 1 in 40). Edited November 3, 2020 by Yellow Fever 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 207k tests Test capacity now 520K 20018 - 397 7days ago 22885 14 days ago 21311 I will hazzard a guess that positives have peaked. Now lower than a fortnight ago. No sign of any exponential rise. Deaths obviously a lagging statistic but only up 30 on last Tuesday. As expected Tuesday and Wednesday always the highest. Inpatients 11458 up 540 since Saturday https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 22253 - 233 drop of 7k France 52518 - 416 highest positives so far Spain 18370 - 127 Germany 16240 - 112 Edited November 3, 2020 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, ricardo said: 207k tests Test capacity now 520K 20018 - 397 7days ago 22885 14 days ago 21311 I will hazzard a guess that positives have peaked. Now lower than a fortnight ago. No sign of any exponential rise. Deaths obviously a lagging statistic but only up 30 on last Tuesday. As expected Tuesday and Wednesday always the highest. Inpatients 11458 up 540 since Saturday https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 22253 - 233 drop of 7k France 52518 - 416 highest positives so far Spain 18370 - 127 Germany 16240 - 112 854 deaths in France according to the Guardian? This might help explain “The sharp rise of the daily death toll is in part due to the fact the nursing homes fatalities are taken in account twice a week, on Tuesdays and on Fridays.” Edited November 3, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 3, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, Van wink said: 854 deaths in France according to the Guardian? This might help explain “The sharp rise of the daily death toll is in part due to the fact the nursing homes fatalities are taken in account twice a week, on Tuesdays and on Fridays.” Yes a bit like Spain at the weekends, the numbers are not really in a daily sequence.The European numbers I have reported are yesterdays numbers mainly because Germany never reports in full until quite late. No question however that France's numbers are very high, perhaps making up for being much lower than others in March / April. Germany also now seem to be making up for lost time where it is finally getting into the older population. Our numbers always seem higher on Tues and Wed, perhaps due to weekend reporting catching up. Good to see that our figures are not ballooning. Tomorrow will be 14 days from our highest reported number. Edited November 3, 2020 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 15 hours ago, ricardo said: 207k tests Test capacity now 520K 20018 - 397 7days ago 22885 14 days ago 21311 I will hazzard a guess that positives have peaked. Now lower than a fortnight ago. No sign of any exponential rise. Deaths obviously a lagging statistic but only up 30 on last Tuesday. As expected Tuesday and Wednesday always the highest. Inpatients 11458 up 540 since Saturday https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 22253 - 233 drop of 7k France 52518 - 416 highest positives so far Spain 18370 - 127 Germany 16240 - 112 Looks like you may well be right Ricardo, certainly the view of Tim Spector, sincerely hope you are. Crucial factor is the age distribution now. Edited November 4, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 Further critique of the data that was used to push Lockdown Watch and discuss. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 Certainly looks to have peaked and levelled out well before any lockdown measures come into place. . Lets see how the next week goes Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 Yet more encouraging news. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, Van wink said: Looks like you may well be right Ricardo, certainly the view of Tim Spector, sincerely hope you are. Crucial factor is the age distribution now. Norwich positive tests dropped to 10 yesterday. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 755 Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 36 minutes ago, ricardo said: Certainly looks to have peaked and levelled out well before any lockdown measures come into place. . Lets see how the next week goes I think Whitty said yesterday that the three tier system was having effect (the third tier even more so than the second, as you’d expect) and the charts they used in the press conference showed the r number had been reducing since a few days before the tier three was put in place. The issue though so he said was that it wouldn’t have had enough of an effect quickly enough to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. Difficult to say on that one - hospitals been discussed on here before. But I’d repeat what I said yesterday - how can you slam a government when it is given data that turns out to be wrong? Even Whitty said the three tier system was reducing infections. It was working. The issue really is that the initial worst case scenario was out - had the actual numbers been closer to the original worst case prediction, then the three tier system might have been sufficient. As it is, the worst case scenario was wrong, things were actually worse than that suggested, and then the government had to “u turn”. Edited November 4, 2020 by Aggy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 28 minutes ago, Aggy said: As it is, the worst case scenario was wrong, things were actually worse than that suggested, and then the government had to “u turn”. The worst case scenario was certainly wrong but not in the direction they were suggesting. One look at the numbers will verify that. The model they were following was from Oct 9th and they already had data up to 28th Oct which showed it to be totally wrong. See the Ivor Cummims video at around 15 minutes. Edited November 4, 2020 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 755 Posted November 4, 2020 58 minutes ago, ricardo said: The worst case scenario was certainly wrong but not in the direction they were suggesting. One look at the numbers will verify that. The model they were following was from Oct 9th and they already had data up to 28th Oct which showed it to be totally wrong. See the Ivor Cummims video at around 15 minutes. If I’m looking at the bit I think you are, that’s referring to the 4K figure. I’m referring to the original SAGE worst case figure which said, I think, max. 800 deaths a day at any point through winter. The government introduced the three tier system off the back of that 800 figure. Even ignoring the 4k figure, the other figures they used in the recent press conference did suggest more than 800 daily deaths and associated hospitalisations, which is when the government imposed lockdown. Had the initial worst case scenario been higher/more accurate, I expect the government would have imposed lockdown sooner. None of that answers the separate question I think you’re hinting at though, which is why in a briefing trying to convince the government lockdowns were needed, scientific experts used out of date and incorrect modelling which showed deaths would be significantly higher than all other more current modelling suggested. Whitty said yesterday it was included in the slides to show a worst case scenario from a couple of weeks ago and apologised if that wasn’t made clear in the press conference. I have no idea how clear it was made to the government in SAGE’s briefing... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 265k tests Test capacity now 520K (fewer people going for tests???) 25177 - 492 7days ago 24701 14 days ago 26668 A bigish one today but still lower than a fortnight ago and comparable with last Wednesday. Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland report 104 deaths (included in total) so quite a bit of backdating here. England report 302. As expected Tuesday and Wednesday always the highest. Inpatients 12320 up 1402 since Saturday https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 28244 - 353 up 6k after a drop of 7k France 36330 - 854 up dating from care homes apparently but postives drop 16k Spain 18669 - 149 Germany 16545 - 149 Edited November 4, 2020 by ricardo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 Government win Lockdown vote 516-38 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
horsefly 4,303 Posted November 4, 2020 Whatever one's view on this new lock-down the simple reality is that it is happening. Surely it falls upon everyone now to do their best to make it as effective as possible. There really is nothing to gain from undermining the chances of people abiding strictly to the rules. Indeed, even the sceptics have much to gain from promoting strict adherence to the rules; for if they are right in their views they will then have the ammunition they need to protest against future lock-downs. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Essjayess 307 Posted November 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, ricardo said: 265k tests Test capacity now 520K (fewer people going for tests???) 25177 - 492 7days ago 24701 14 days ago 26668 A bigish one today but still lower than a fortnight ago and comparable with last Wednesday. Scotland, Wales and N.Ireland report 104 deaths (included in total) so quite a bit of backdating here. England report 302. As expected Tuesday and Wednesday always the highest. Inpatients 12320 up 1402 since Saturday https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ Yesterdays European. Italy 28244 - 353 up 6k after a drop of 7k France 36330 - 854 up dating from care homes apparently but postives drop 16k Spain 18669 - 149 Germany 16545 - 149 Indeed Ricardo, the Wednesady of 2 weeks ago had over 26k new cases, as youve mentioned before that new cases have pretty much stabilised in the 20k's day and the rise in deaths is the natural catch up to the new case infections. If the daily new cases continue to stabilise in the 20k's then the daily deaths should at some point stabilise to, hopefully some time in next week or two. Whatever one thinks of the UK figures, and of course they look pretty horrible, its very much a Europe wide 2nd wave and as you also said, this wave seems much worse in places like Germany this time around, and certainly hugely worse in nations like Poland. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ricardo 7,395 Posted November 4, 2020 Local Situation Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bagster 101 Posted November 4, 2020 Don't upset them with facts RTB They're looking forward to their great reset https://winteroak.org.uk/2020/10/05/klaus-schwab-and-his-great-fascist-reset/ 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rock The Boat 1,332 Posted November 4, 2020 1 hour ago, ricardo said: Local Situation One might reasonably expect the average to be rising as we enter the winter months. That the numbers are already falling suggests that the current levels of restrictions are working well and are where Norfolk should be. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, ricardo said: Government win Lockdown vote 516-38 And quite right too! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189 Posted November 4, 2020 2 hours ago, ricardo said: Government win Lockdown vote 516-38 I see that the DUP voted 🤔 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,793 Posted November 4, 2020 Daily confirmed Covid19 tests. I keep seeing people trying to read covid prevalence into these figures. Only random ONS sampling gives this. The daily figures are not random but self selecting and there are all sorts of reasons why people might wish not to have the test even if they think they are positive (fear of extended quarantine) or as in schools amd universities where they may be over cautious. I'm very sure that most people if they thought they had a small cough would rather self isolate and manage informally than be onerously required to do so legally. If you are formally tested positive you lose control of options! Hence although there is some correlation between community prevalence and confirmed cases it is not a direct link and shouldn't be over analysed positive or indeed negative. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bagster 101 Posted November 5, 2020 You people must be so proud of your police state When you give up your freedom for safety, you deserve neither. When a top **** was asked, how did you get them to comply. He answered, that was easy, Fear Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
