Corona Virus main thread

[T 190]

5 minutes ago, Jim Smith said:

Yes but in much of Germany they do not test for Covid 19 in post mortems apparently and so unless someone was tested for it before they died they don't count as a Covid 19 death. They also don't seem to publish as regular ONS type stats in order to be able to guage the excess mortality there has been in Germany. The suggestion is therefore that their death numbers have been significantly downplayed. 

Not saying that they haven't dealt with it better than us in terms of testing/isolating etc but I'm not sure their stats are as reliable as is made out. Conversely our ONS stats include anyone who has a possible mention of covid 19 on their death certificate, even if they have not been tested and with deaths in care homes often being certified by nurses as doctors can't get in there. So you could say that by publishing those stats we are being the most "hon est" in Europe in terms of our reporting and probably the ONS stats overstate the numbers.

×.url

Yes they are not doing post mortems because not safe but because the testing is extensively widespread not just hospitals they are capturing much more of the deaths so their widely reported figure includes a wider proportion  of deaths than the UK hospital reported figure so the UK 20000 odd is a lower proportion of total deaths than the 5000 odds reported in Germany. The reported deaths in Germany do include care home deaths. Yes there will be some untested but Germany is testing all suspected cases because it has the capacity and can do it. 
 

I agree the most relevant figure is excess deaths and really the impact on the average age of death. I’ve not seen those widely reported in Germany but not looked and mortality rates are publicly available info so no sectet and not something the German press are getting hung up about given the extensive testing in Germany and that the figures include care homes. 
 

you make some fair points but however you dress it up the UK has done appallingly compared to Germany due to lack of preparation and capacity. 

[Well b back 3,263]

1 minute ago, The Bristol Nest said:

Haven't Glaxo joined up with the big French pharmaceutical manufacturer in order to do something potentially similar but when trials are complete?

Yes

Part of the latest reporting says nobody thought September was possible, but nobody including the WHO had allowed for any inter government cooperation.

It is also being widely reported that a group of macesh monkies ( our closest dna ) were exposed to heavy doses of Covid 19. Only 6 were not given the vaccine. They all caught it except the 6, and it is reported that was 28 days ago, hence why there seems more confidence in this working.

[T 190]

9 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Nothing to do with grating,  or your implied anti Germanic rhetoric, which is also unnecessary and certainly in my case completely ill founded T, but using it as a stick to constantly bash the UK is irritating, as with any other stick, particularly as none of us will have all the accurate info about CV19 related deaths to draw relevant comparisons till this is over and proper research can be done.

Oh come on some clearly irritated that it happens to be Germany that is the benchmark. You know the sentiment and know it is wrong. I will not go further given your good grace comments. . People are going to make comparisons.and just because they put the UK in an unfavourable light doesn’t mean that you z make comparisons. There is lots of data available and the UK doesn’t look good in terms of preparation is just the harsh truth however people want to bury the truth by changing the benchmark.  The fact remains that the UK was poorly prepared as France admitted and nothing is going to change that. I think I have been balanced because I have also been supportive of what the govt is now trying to do which is consistent with expert advice unlike their preparations. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

There appears to be a back lash looming for the Government. As more and more data is released, unlike the Russia report, it is becoming clear that the incompetence is reaching epidemic levels. And the Panorama report really outlined the eye off the ball when warnings were given to the various departments.

I really don't know what they are going to do about care homes. They have lost the plot completely on this one. Only 51 deaths in Cornwall hospitals but 90 in care homes. And the staff have the least PPE.

And Boris dodged a bullet yesterday by not attending the briefing but sending Hancock again. The man has got to show us he has more than words. Funny and witty is what is needed. It is leadership.

[ricardo 7,396]

The trend continues

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

The trend continues

But not for Care Homes mate

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The trend continues

I'll open that when on laptop tonigh, it goes blurry when I zoom on mobile, what trend is it showing Ricardo? 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

13 minutes ago, T said:

Oh come on some clearly irritated that it happens to be Germany that is the benchmark. You know the sentiment and know it is wrong. I will not go further given your good grace comments. . People are going to make comparisons.and just because they put the UK in an unfavourable light doesn’t mean that you z make comparisons. There is lots of data available and the UK doesn’t look good in terms of preparation is just the harsh truth however people want to bury the truth by changing the benchmark.  The fact remains that the UK was poorly prepared as France admitted and nothing is going to change that. I think I have been balanced because I have also been supportive of what the govt is now trying to do which is consistent with expert advice unlike their preparations. 

Germany has 4 times more dedicated ICU beds, isn't that a large part of the reason why their death numbers look superior? 

[sonyc 5,541]

14 minutes ago, T said:

Oh come on some clearly irritated that it happens to be Germany that is the benchmark. You know the sentiment and know it is wrong. I will not go further given your good grace comments. . People are going to make comparisons.and just because they put the UK in an unfavourable light doesn’t mean that you z make comparisons. There is lots of data available and the UK doesn’t look good in terms of preparation is just the harsh truth however people want to bury the truth by changing the benchmark.  The fact remains that the UK was poorly prepared as France admitted and nothing is going to change that. I think I have been balanced because I have also been supportive of what the govt is now trying to do which is consistent with expert advice unlike their preparations. 

T. I think folk hear you loud and clear. We have become all clued up with Germany and the message has got through. You don't need to repeat. I believe that is what posters are saying. And folk also know we maybe weren't as prepared as the UK should have been.

[Herman 9,818]

39 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Here’s something to add to this article which does make the positives stand out more than the negatives. This is in relation to the vaccine deliver by Oxford ( Sarah Gilbert ).

On Monday, the world's largest vaccine maker, the Serum Institute of India, said it would not wait for the trial to end and was preemptively making 40 million doses to save time in case it worked.

A lot of money to throw down the drain if they had major doubts.

 

I know it would take longer but I'd rather have a vaccine that is properly tested. 

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The trend continues

But not for Care Homes mate

My argument days /  weeks back on the hospital admissions numbers / trends and indeed deaths.  Admit the care home covid sufferers in general to hospital (it was always subjective who goes and who doesn't) and you get a different less cosy story.   

[sonyc 5,541]

19 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

There appears to be a back lash looming for the Government. As more and more data is released, unlike the Russia report, it is becoming clear that the incompetence is reaching epidemic levels. And the Panorama report really outlined the eye off the ball when warnings were given to the various departments.

I really don't know what they are going to do about care homes. They have lost the plot completely on this one. Only 51 deaths in Cornwall hospitals but 90 in care homes. And the staff have the least PPE.

And Boris dodged a bullet yesterday by not attending the briefing but sending Hancock again. The man has got to show us he has more than words. Funny and witty is what is needed. It is leadership.

I wonder whether social care might be structurally attached / more aligned to the NHS once this is over and policy decisions and funding it can be sorted. It's taken a pandemic for this issue to finally take centre stage. Successive governments have not put care to the front of public policy. Strange, given the ageing population and demographics. It may have taken thousands of deaths for this to be seen as an urgent issue.

Edited April 28, 2020 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,818]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

I know it would take longer but I'd rather have a vaccine that is properly tested. 

Northwick Park fiasco a few years back ....

[T 190]

6 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Germany has 4 times more dedicated ICU beds, isn't that a large part of the reason why their death numbers look superior? 

I think they mainly say testing but also ICU capacity was 29 in Germany verus soemthing like 4 in UK. I htink they are jsut natually more cautius and risk adverse to prepare for might happen at soem point. 

[ricardo 7,396]

8 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I'll open that when on laptop tonigh, it goes blurry when I zoom on mobile, what trend is it showing Ricardo? 

It is updated daily showing deaths on the actual day they were reported. It shows a continual slow decline since the peak of around April 8th.

[ricardo 7,396]

9 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Germany has 4 times more dedicated ICU beds, isn't that a large part of the reason why their death numbers look superior? 

Err no, since we never exceeded 60% capacity of ours even at the peak.

[ricardo 7,396]

4 minutes ago, T said:

I think they mainly say testing but also ICU capacity was 29 in Germany verus soemthing like 4 in UK. I htink they are jsut natually more cautius and risk adverse to prepare for might happen at soem point. 

Superior testing and a quick response to engage the large private sector labs whereas PHE wanted to keep it in house until they realised they could never meet demand.

[T 190]

6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

T. I think folk hear you loud and clear. We have become all clued up with Germany and the message has got through. You don't need to repeat. I believe that is what posters are saying. And folk also know we maybe weren't as prepared as the UK should have been.

I think some are still trying to deny it but this is on going so there is new information as in a German public health press conference  today on their view of the pandemic which is highly pertinent to what is happening in the UK as the UK is also inpacted by the same virus so aame virus same issue different country. The virus doesnt discriminate by colour of passport so it is relevant. . The UK authorities are rightly and openly looking at what other countries are doing in particularly  Germany as the they are doing better to see what they can learn. Likewise the UK is sharing its modelling approach with other countries. The scientists are looking at other countries even if some of the public are more parochial as this is a global issue so what other countries are doing is relevenat to what will happen in the UK. I think people are getting over hung up about it happens to be Germany. So what is is a pandemic.  

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

we never exceeded 60% capacity of ours even at the peak.

On 14th April the ICU with the most spare capacity was 67 percent full, so how does that work?

[ricardo 7,396]

3 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

On 14th April the ICU with the most spare capacity was 67 percent full, so how does that work?

I took it from the graphs shown on yesterdays presentation.

The point being exceeding capacity does not appear to have been a problem.

Edited April 28, 2020 by ricardo

[Surfer 1,547]

1 hour ago, The Bristol Nest said:

Mask have merit in protecting others but unless you have a gown, gloves and importantly googles you should not relax social distancing or touch your face.

That is all the masks can ever do, and why in Asian “we are a community not individuals” societies you see masks all the time. It’s not to protect you, it’s to protect everyone else. And in turn the person wearing a mask is protecting you. So if we are “all in this together” as we are being constantly told this issue should not be a difficult thing for governments and newspapers to message to the people. The simple question to “will a masks protect me” is NO! it protects all of us, and if that is not good enough for you, then remember - all of us still includes you. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I took it from the graphs shown on yesterdays presentation.

Ok so the 60 percent includes nightingale capacity. 

Easter Sunday hospital ICU beds were 80 percent occupied. 

No idea whether a Nightingale facility is on par with a traditional ICU bed so I'll bow out gracefully and hope that I never have to lay in either.

I will point out though that the national figure isn't necessarily relevant to whether the NHS could get you or me to a ventilator on time, as I assume local capacity would be more important then. A spare bed in Cumbria no good for me. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten

[BroadstairsR 2,199]

13 minutes ago, T said:

I think they mainly say testing but also ICU capacity was 29 in Germany verus soemthing like 4 in UK. I htink they are jsut natually more cautius and risk adverse to prepare for might happen at soem point. 

Is it possible for you to make a single post without mentioning Germany?

They might well have gotten things more right than the UK on this one, but so have many other countries that you seem mostly unable to refer to. It's a journey into the unknown after all and environments differ.

I (we) realise that  Brexit has hurt you more than most by the manner in which it has resulted in the longest cry in history, but we have the message by now.

If, as you state (there are many inconsistencies over time) you have found your Nirvana then why do you find it so necessary to continually lecture us in such a condescending manner?

You insist upon hanging around like a bad smell.

I happen to admire the country in which I was born and bred and I have most certainly experienced other countries and cultures more than you (including a spell in Germany) and I therefore resent your constant barrage of disparagement.   

I accept that you are entirely self-centred and a bit thick, but that is no excuse. 

[Well b back 3,263]

Breaking news from France

French sport will not resume this season

The Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 seasons will not resume after France banned all sporting events, including behind closed doors, until September.

"The 2019-2020 season of professional sports, especially that of football, will not be able to resume," French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe told parliament on Tuesday.

French football's governing body had hoped to resume the football season in June, following its indefinite suspension in March.

[ricardo 7,396]

1 minute ago, Well b back said:

Breaking news from France

French sport will not resume this season

The Ligue 1 and Ligue 2 seasons will not resume after France banned all sporting events, including behind closed doors, until September.

"The 2019-2020 season of professional sports, especially that of football, will not be able to resume," French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe told parliament on Tuesday.

French football's governing body had hoped to resume the football season in June, following its indefinite suspension in March.

Its all headed one way.

The Premier League however will need to be dragged kicking and screaming in this direction.

[sonyc 5,541]

Yes, but probably not null and void

[sonyc 5,541]

The French leagues are not even considering that possibility (unfortunately ☹️) so not such a good precedent

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

It is also being widely reported that a group of macesh monkies ( our closest dna ) were exposed to heavy doses of Covid 19. Only 6 were not given the vaccine. They all caught it except the 6.

That sounds like a disaster of a trial if the only 6 monkeys to not get covid-19 were the 6 who didn't get the vaccine.

[T 190]

Have to laugh how the hard liners beautifully illustrate my point. This is about a global virus and it just happens that Germany is the Wuropeanbenchmark but some people are so obsessed by different nationalities they are more upset about what country than what we can learn about the virus and lives . The country is not important. What is important is what we can learn about dealing with the virus. So sad that some people are so hung about nationality rather than what is important is the virus. and lives. I’ve mentioned and discussed plenty of other countries but some seem hung up about Germany. People really need to get over their hang ups over different nationalities but never will. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by T

[Well b back 3,263]

13 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

That sounds like a disaster of a trial if the only 6 monkeys to not get covid-19 were the 6 who didn't get the vaccine.

Yep of course I meant the only one not to get the Covid 19 were the 6 that had the vaccine.

I need to check posts before pushing that red button lol